| Here's the weekly scorecard: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1-Jul-16 | Price | Change | % Change |
| Gold, $/oz | 1,336.70 | 18.30 | 1.4 |
| Silver, $/oz | 19.54 | 0.96 | 5.2 |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 68.394 | 0.903 | 1.3 |
| Silver/Gold Ratio | 0.0146 | 0.0007 | 5.2 |
| Platinum | 1,054.70 | 33.20 | 3.3 |
| Palladium | 606.16 | 18.00 | 3.1 |
| S&P 500 | 2,102.95 | 4.09 | 0.2 |
| Dow | 17,949.37 | 19.38 | 0.1 |
| Dow in GOLD $s | 277.58 | -3.52 | -1.3 |
| Dow in GOLD oz | 13.43 | -0.17 | -1.3 |
| Dow in SILVER oz | 918.41 | -46.50 | -4.8 |
| US Dollar Index | 95.72 | -0.48 | -0.5 |
Gloat. Gloat, gloat, gloat. Gloat. Gloat, gloat.
Whew. I just couldn't hold that in any longer. Sorry. I know I'm not supposed to gloat, but I'm a moneychanger, not a plaster saint.
Week's big gainer was ---- PALLADIUM PRICE, up 10.5%. Next came the SILVER PRICE, $2.00 higher in the last four days and up 9.9% this week. GOLD PRICE rose 1.3%, but was marching in place compared to the other metals. Stocks rose 3.2%, but that ain't much to crow about next to silver & gold. US dollar index managed again to spike its own rise.
Here at the end of the first half of 2016, I want to point to some results, compared to 31 Dec 2015.
Dow Industrials, + 2.9%
S&P500, up 2.7%
Nasdaq Comp, - 3.3%
Nasdaq 100, -3.8%
Dow in Gold, -17.2%
Dow in Silver, - 23.7%
Gold Price, +24.3%
Silver Price, + 34.9%
Platinum Price, +14.6%
Palladium Price, +6.7%
US dollar index, -2.7%
XAU gold stock index, 115.5%
HUI gold stock index, +122.7%
Now I'm jes' a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, & I don't know Sic 'em from Come yere, but it 'pears to me them Wall Street smarties are running a mite behind the pack. But shucks, I know they'll figure out some way to 'splain things that I'm jes' too ignurunt to see.
Stocks today halted their manic rise. Dow gained 19.38 (0.11%) to 17,949.37 as it drew nearer and nearer the Kryptonite laden 18,000 level. S&P500 rose 4.09 (0.19%0 to 2,102.95. Law, law, the run-up these last four days has set the stage for the bloodiest mess y'all have ever seen. Worse than hog killin', when stocks fall over that cliff.
Here's the Dow in Gold, down 17.2% since December 2015 ended, http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc
Y'all know I ain't got a lick ah sense but durned if it don't look like them stocks is jes' a-falling & a-falling against gold. Ended the week at 13.35 oz, having bounced off the downtrend line from the December 2015 high. Hear my words: GREAT slide comin'. Watch for it. And ef y'all have stocks still, y'all might think about selling 'em for gold.
Dow in Silver has even more soundly whupped stocks, down 23.7% so far this year. Go look, http://schrts.co/arS25e
Mark carefully that the Dow in Silver has fallen plumb through the support from the last two lows about 992 oz, and collapsed to 904.02 oz, a new low for the move that began in December.
Don't delude yourselves: this is no flash in the pan. Stocks will continue to lose value against metals for the next 5 years or more, 85% from that December high.
US dollar index lost 48 basis points (0.5%) to end at 95.72. Say what you will, that don't make no sense a'tall. And when thangs don't make no sense, you can look for a Nice Government Man behind the curtain. In a world where the US 10 year T note just hit a 3-1/2 year high, the US dollar shouldn't be unable to make new highs, or at least hold on to gains.
But in a world where criminal central banks, the natural enemies of all decent men, manipulate currency exchange rates for political goals, it makes perfect sense that after Brexit and the euro's Incredible Shrinking Currency act, the Nice Government Men would prop up the euro & slap down the Samolean. Potemkin markets.
Euro rose (wink, wink!) 0.27% to $1.1138. Of all the nasty things I don't want to own in the world next to a glassful of fresh cholera juice, the euro heads the list. Folks, it will blow up. Yen also rose 0.7% to 97.54 & looks to me it's thinking about belly flopping a couple of stories.
I don't know what to say about SILVER & GOLD? Haven't I been telling y'all that in a bull market, all the surprises come to the upside? Well, slap my jaws and call me Sally if that didn't happen again this morning. Near first light I turned on my cell phone and looked at the price. I shook that cell phone a couple of times cause I knew that silver price couldn't be right. Somebody made a typo, putting $19 for $18. I shook the durned thing again, but there it was, 1935¢. Looky here at the chart, http://schrts.co/NNTujU
Today on the Comex gold rose $18.30 (1.4%) but silver leapt, nay, pole-vaulted 96.2¢ -- five point two percent -- to 1954.4¢. Lo, not even I, the arch-silverbug of all silverbugs, expected that. In the last four days, silver has risen $2.00. It is trading at its highest price since August 2014.
Things waxed feverish in the Aftermarket. GOLD PRICE rose $7.00 to $1,343.30 but silver rose 26.1¢ as NOBODYwanted to go home short over a long holiday weekend, the classic time for a government surprise party.
Don't even get me started talking about the gold/silver ratio. That ended the Comex at 68.39, down 7.2% in the last four days. Y'all reckon we hit a good lick with those gold for silver swaps? Ratio is down 18.9% from the March high, & this downmove is only beginning.
'Tain't over yet. If you are waiting for a correction, stop waiting. This move has not ended, and will carry well over $20, perhaps as high as . . . Aww, never mind. Y'all will jes' think I'm crazy.
I'm going to back up an inch. Silver hit the upper channel boundary today. UNLESS it punches clean through that next week, it ought to back off a little. That overbought RSI needs some chastening rest, too. However, this upmove has NOT ended so any correction will be shallow.
Glance at the gold chart here, http://schrts.co/9ks4L3
RSI and MACD give it plenty of room to move higher. Once it punches through today's high, which is about on the overhead channel line, it could run $110. Yeah, I know, crazy.
There are some times that waiting makes sense, but other times when waiting can be fatal. It will be fatal here, because silver and gold are NOT looking back. The markets see something we don't -- yet -- but that's coded all in those rising prices.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
