Thursday, May 19, 2011

A Bottom in the Gold Price Lies not too Far Distant, but not yet, not yet.

Gold Price Close Today : 1492.20
Change : (3.40) or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.927
Change : (0.167) or -0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.72
Change : 0.106 or 0.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02341
Change : -0.000058 or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1766.40
Change : 5.90 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 726.60
Change : -9.40 or -1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,340.86
Change : 0.18 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.31
Change : $ 0.49 or 0.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.432
Change : 0.024 or 0.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 360.26
Change : 1.87 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,582.81
Change : 5.47 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.50
Change : -0.372 or -0.5%

Editors Note: We apologies for the errors in the gold price data in Franklin Sanders commentary yesterday which was caused by a software glitch when we format his commentary and through no fault of Franklin Sanders. We have now resolved this glitch and it wont happen again.

For all its weaseling and waffling, the US DOLLAR INDEX has been skating along above its 50 day moving average, and that's fundamentally positive. Today it dropped off 32.9 basis points (0.42%) to test the limits of support at 75.10. Breaking below 75. will crush morale and send the buck hurtling toward 72.50.

By falling this far the dollar has clouded its own future, and will have to conquer 76 to seduce followers.

It's not as if the euro were an attractive alternative to the dollar. It clearly topped early in May and remains BELOW its 50 DMA, setting its direction firmly down. Today closed at 1.4311, up 0.46%.

The yen today cut through its 50 DMA, then bounced up. Closed up 0.06% at Y81.587/$ (122.57c/Y100).

STOCKS advance raggedly. At the close the Dow had garnered 45.14 new points to end higher at 12,605.32, but the day's chart tells another story: up, down, up down, but on the whole higher. S&P500 also gained, 2.92 points, to end at 1,343.60.

Now the Dow has reached the 12,600 barrier -- reached but not breached. May make one last high before it breathes its bearish last. Just above today's close at 12,648 lies the Dow's 20 DMA. I'm not the only one who can look at a chart, so expect enthusiasm and higher prices if the Dow manages to conquer that level.

Some people want to own stocks. Some people think cheetahs can be made into pets, too, and anacondas and Tasmanian devils.

Against gold stocks have built into a tighter and tighter triangle which should break down soon.

The GOLD PRICE stubbornly refuses to co-operate in the least with any bearish outlook. Sure, it lost $3.40 today and closed Comex at $1,492.20, but more pertinent than that little loss was staying above $1,490 support. That down spike on Tuesday has an upside down head-and-shoulderish look that implies the gold price will rally to $1,415 or $1,420 before the hydrogen leaks out of its balloon.

I stayed up until 2:30 a.m. last night staring at charts and sorting numbers. Conclusion is that a bottom lies not too far distant, but not yet, not yet.

Nor did I leave SILVER out of last night's fun. Imagine a problem in three unknowns -- gold, silver, and the ratio, and they do NOT all peak and trough together. But the timing gives a hint, the days elapsed in the past to reach a bottom.

Silver passed a quiet day with a mere 120c range from 3451c to 3571c. Can't make up my mind after today's trading whether silver will poke through 3450c and plunge, or whether 'twill roll upwards. If it moves higher than 3570c, we'd have our clue higher prices are coming, for a little rally to 3800c at least, then another fall. Likely a bottom lies not much more than four weeks in the future.

Yet again I warn y'all, break those piggy banks and dig through your couches for change, because when silver hits this low you want to spend everything you can rake and scrape on it.

On this day in 1993 the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 3,500. On this day in 1989, oddly enough, the Dow closed above 2,500 for the first time. In January 2000 it topped at 11,722, four and two-thirds time the 1989 marvel at 2,500. Bear that in mind when you meditate silver and gold. The curve is accelerating.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.