Friday, May 20, 2011

Once Silver and Gold Price Bottom this Time - They Will Not Revisit these Prices for the Rest of the Bull Market

Gold Price Close Today : 1,508.80
Gold Price Close 13-May : 1,493.40
Change : 15.40 or 1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3508.2
Silver Price Close 13-May : 3501.1
Change : 7.10 or 0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.008
Gold Silver Ratio 13-May : 42.655
Change : 0.35 or 0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02325
Silver Gold Ratio 13-May : 0.02344
Change : -0.00019 or -0.8%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ -
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-May : $ 174.35
Change : $ (174.35) or -100.0%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 0.000
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-May : 8.434
Change : -8.43 or -100.0%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 0.00
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-May : 359.77
Change : -359.77 or -100.0%

Dow Industrial : 0.00
Dow Industrial 13-May : 12,595.75
Change : -12595.75 or -100.0%

S&P 500 : 0.00
S&P 500 13-May : 1,337.77
Change : -1337.77 or -100.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.493
US Dollar Index 13-May : 75.723
Change : -0.230 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,771.10
Platinum Price Close 13-May : 1,765.00
Change : 6.10 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 736.30
Palladium Price Close 13-May : 709.00
Change : 27.30 or 3.9%

This week warns you that SILVER and GOLD PRICES have gotten tired of falling and are pondering turning around. Not completed, and we'll probably see more downside, but they're digging in their heels. Dollar has gone sideways all week, stocks tried to gain but made no headway. Platinum and Palladium seconded silver and gold.

After touching back toward the last low ($1,462) at a low of $1,472 on Tuesday, GOLD pushed thru resistance at $1,500 and $1,505 to reach 1,515 today. Comex closed $1,508.80, up $16.60.

The road forks here. To the left the GOLD PRICE keeps climbing, tussling with $1,515 and $1,525 resistance, maybe hitting $1,530, then falling back lower than it has yet done. On the other fork, the GOLD PRICE fails beginning Monday at $1,515, then drops swiftly to a new low. Ultimate low either way will look like $1,445, $1,400, or $1,380. Look for that low sometime before 15 June, but by end-June latest.

Ahhh, SILVER. Like gold, silver made a spike bottom on Tuesday, at 3300c. It rallied sharply from there -- I call 45 degrees "sharply" to 3560c, then Thursday and Friday moved sideways. Today somebody tried to knock silver out about 10:00 a.m., but failed. Dropped down to 3419c then shot up like a basketball held under water, clean to 3540c, but fell back to 3508.2c at Comex close, 15.5c higher than yesterday.

The SILVER PRICE might rally up to 3900, its 50 DMA, then still turn and make a lower low. I more than half expect to see it reach its 200 dma (now 29.17 and rising 9c/day). MACD and RSI are itching to turn up, but I am still holding out.

BICBW -- silver might shoot right past the last high at 3946c and keep on travelling. Not very likely, but possible.

Once silver and gold bottom this time, by end-June, they will not revisit these prices for the rest of the bull market. That's your shot, last train leaving the station before the Russians take Berlin, and you'd better run and catch it.

The corrupt, scrofulous, and preposterous US DOLLAR generally moved sideways this week. After making a new low today at 74.957 on a spike bottom, it rocketed up to 75.76, then settled back to 75.493. Here in the last few minutes it's risen to 75.637, but I'm too lazy to go back and change my price sheet.

At 75.637 the dollar index is 51.4 basis points higher than yesterday or up 0.66%, a respectable move. Yet all the smoke, sound, and fury only returns the dollar to the 75.80 barrier that sent it along this week's detour. Dollar spent the week skiing along its 50 DMA (now 75.09), and today sets it up to challenge 76 next week. Expect to see it beat that mark, and struggle along toward 77. The sorry dollar is rallying -- until it stops.

After reaching high on tippy-toe and touching its 50 DMA (1.4328), the euro exhausted all its strength and moral and fell today to 1.4173, down 0.96%. Clearly the euro had better learn to swim, because right now it is sinking. The currency of the Land of the Rising Sun is also sinking slowly below the horizon and almost below its 50 DMA. Yen closed today at Y81.63/$ (122.50c/Y100), down 0.05%.

STOCKS teased and tweaked their supporters this week, then reneged today. After rising 45 yesterday, the Dow sank 92.38 today to end the week at 12,512.04, down 0.74% today. S&P500 dropped 10.33 (0.77%) to 1,333.27. All other stock indices fell today as well.

For the Dow 12,600 has become the unconquerable roadblock, covered by state cops and SWAT teams. If it backs up past 12,380, it'll back clean off the road and down the mountainside.

Dow's 20 DMA stands at 12,648, so if it can clear that it will attract a lot of riders. Still possible it pushes to one last top above 13,000. Break thru the 50 DMA (12,383) will speed it earthward.

Stocks -- they're the arm garters and celluloid collars in the Investment Department Store.

Against gold, by the way, stocks tried all week to rally, and failed completely. DiG$ today closed thru the bottom of the range at G$171.43 (8.293 oz). Very bottom of the longer term range is G$167.44 (8.10 oz).

Against silver stocks have risen from 261.76 oz. at end-April to a high of 377.06 to today's 356.65. Stocks appear to have rolled over against silver, and are about to get cheaper in silver.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.