Thursday, May 05, 2011

Gold Price Closed at 1480 Silver Price Closed at 36.23 and Hit 34.25 in Aftermarket

Gold Price Close Today : 1480.90
Change : (34.00) or -2.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.231
Change : (3.152) or -8.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.87
Change : 2.408 or 6.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02447
Change : -0.001532 or -5.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1757.50
Change : -68.50 or -3.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 704.15
Change : -41.70 or -5.6%

S&P 500 : 1,335.10
Change : -12.22 or -0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $175.66
Change : $ 2.06 or 1.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.498
Change : 0.100 or 1.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 347.33
Change : 24.26 or 7.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,584.17
Change : -139.40 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 74.08
Change : 1.053 or 1.4%

On Tuesday even though I was on the road I couldn't resist sending y'all a commentary. I called and dictated it but somehow it didn't get thru my elaborate system. Most important message was (1) Tuesday's -- and now Wednesday's -- waterfalls confirmed that Monday silver and gold broke down. Second, I noticed in the dollar index an upside down head and shoulders in the with a neckline at 73.30. Clearing that neckline set a target of 73.90. Yesterday the dollar index closed 73.13, today 74.084, up 1.35% and 105.3 basis points.

Construed with the crash in oil, commodities, silver and gold, and now stocks, it seems safe to assume that the US dollar index has turned up. The scabrous euro dropped a choking 2.14% today, a move extraordinarily huge for currencies. Yen was more moderate, rising to Y80.15/$ (124.77c/Y100).

How would you argue that the Euro has not broken? Chart shows a one-day plunge through the 20 dma (1.4568). From wildly overbought the RSI has sunk suddenly to near 50. MACD has plainly turned down. Meanwhile the US dollar index, which is made up over 50% of the euro, pushed up thru its 20 dma (74.15) and closed there (dollar at 74.084 is trading lower after the close).

Don't miss that a phoenix dollar blows its killing, fiery breath over stocks, silver, gold, and commodities -- and will for some time.

STOCKS have also plunged over the waterfall, gravity merely is thusfar showing more mercy on them -- or the NGM are furnishing water wings. After a down day yesterday the Dow puked up 139.41 points today (1.1%) to 12,584.17. S&P500 was right alongside, down 12.22 to 1,335.10 (0.91%). Dow's chart depicts the plunge more dramatically, and when it breaks 12,500 - 12,450, then the fun will really begin.

SILVER's waterfall has poured over the ledge of the 20 dma (4306c) and the cap of the 50 dma (3882c) to plummet to 3425c at today's low. Closed at 3623.1c on Comex, down 315.2c or 8.7%. Since the intraday high at 4975 last Thursday silver has fallen 27.2%. Always one to remember that gentlemen never say, "I told y'all so," and always wanting to remain a gentleman, I say no more.

What's next? Let's think about GOLD first.

Since its $1,575.10 intraday high on Monday, Gold at today's $1,480.90 Comex close (down $34) had lost 6%. One could hardly imagine a more dramatic illustration of silver's greater volatility, 6% down vs. 27.2%. Just don't forget that it works the same way on the upside when silver outrageously outruns gold. Closing gold/silver ratio was 40.874, up from 32 five bare days ago.

In the aftermarket cosmic forces continued battering silver and gold. Gold traded at $1,466.60 and silver at 3497c. Gold has crashed throughout its 20 dma at $1,498.59 and is narrowing the gap toward the 50 dma ($1,453.72).

Plain and obvious targets are $1,445 to $1,380 for gold and 3358c to 3100c for silver, maybe 2638c in a panic. However, tomorrow, after 5 down days in silver and 4 down days in gold ought to see a small rally. Even a waterfall at last reaches the plunge pool. The correction, however, will not end there.

Long have I droned that this correction does NOT, repeat NOT, by any means mark the silver and gold bull market's death. The metals -- Wall Street gurus with their shiny, pointy shoes and inventories full of stocks to sell notwithstanding -- are NOT in a bubble. The correction will leave blood splattered all over the walls, missing teeth, and memories of pain that will mature many, but the bull market will run another three to 10 years. Silver will rise (my guess only) three or four times from its recent peak (yes, whip out those calculators, that equals $187.50 to $200) and gold will at least double. How much they exceed those expectations depends on just how arrogant, stupid, willfully blind and incompetent Bunglin' Ben can be, and here's a little tip. Just as PT Barnum quipped that nobody ever went broke betting on the gullibility of the American public, so also nobody every went broke betting on the ability of central bankers to shoot themselves and whole countries in the foot.

Nothing has changed, dear readers, it's merely a correction.

Rained on us all day Tuesday, no weather for hiking thru the woods to view waterfalls, but Tuesday turned off clear and wondrously cool. Susan took me to Ozone Falls, Upper and Lower Piney Falls, and Laurel Falls. In all we "walked" nearly 10 miles through the woods. Walked earns quotation marks because much of the way was over trails made by water running down 30 degree inclines, hopping from rock to rock and grabbing trees to prevent diving down the abyss. Susan wore me slap out. Today we went to Fall Creek Falls, at 256 feet the highest east of the Rockies. They are so spectacular that even I the wordsmith am left wordless.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.