Thursday, December 29, 2011

The Gold Price Closed at $1,539.90 I Would Not Sell Silver or Gold Here

Gold Price Close Today : 1539.90
Change : (23.10) or -1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 2727.40
Change : 8.20 cents or 0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 56.460
Change : -1.020 or -1.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01771
Change : 0.000314 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1367.70
Change : -16.30 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 631.75
Change : -0.70 or -0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,263.02
Change : -15.79 or -1.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.94
Change : $ 0.60 or 0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.979
Change : 0.029 or 0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 450.50
Change : -6.50 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,287.04
Change : -139.94 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 80.36
Change : -0.136 or -0.2%

Is silver non-confirming the GOLD PRICE fall, or is gold non-confirming the SILVER PRICE rise?

Clue comes from the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which fell today and closed Comex at 56.460. It reached my 57.25:1 target overnight, but markets never saw that price today. It should yet appear.

Premium on US 90% silver coin keeps on rising, pointing to higher silver prices.

Silver defended 2600c level with a low at 2614c. High came at 2785c.

As long as the GOLD PRICE keeps on closing above $1,530 and silver above 2600c, they're good. Longer they hold on above those points, less chance they will dip below them.

Often markets are influence by year-end selling that has nothing to do with outlook or economics, only with some goofy government mandate that skews the economy. We may be seeing some of that, and certainly in stocks all those mutual fund managers and financial advisors want to see stocks fill the year just a bit, just any bit at all, higher than unchanged or negative.

We'll see what happens when sobriety returns on 2 January 2012.

I would NOT sell SILVER or GOLD here. Let's see if silver will drop once again before we go hog-wild buying, though.

Talking to a friend of mine from West Texas a few days ago, he said he had seen the weather there go from 80 degrees in the morning to 20 degrees that night. So they have a saying, if you don't like the weather, just hang around. It'll change soon enough.

I feel the same way about silver and gold today, but when they change directions twice in one day, they like to wear out my thermometer.

I am learning how to react to news events. I look across everything for the most meaningless item, and THAT will be what the media pundits pick out as the day's pivotal event.

Today's bait for the causality-challenged came in the form of a report claiming the labor market is "healing." Now even with the Labor Dept's jimmying, jobless claims rose to 381,000 from 366,000 last week, yet fewer filed for unemployment in the past month than any in the past three years. What are y'all waiting for? Break out the champagne!

Well, I say, One Hobo doth Not a Jungle Make. And if all you've got to brag about is that this month showed the smallest job losses of any out of the last 36, well, friend, you ought to put your hand over your mouth and retreat in silent shame.

Yet hath the stock market not received it thus. The Dow rose 135.63 (1.12%) to 12,287.04 while the S&P500 roses 13.38 (1.07%) to 1,263.02. In the Moneychanger's tiny mind, the unemployment report would have generated no jubilation, but once again you see the perilous failure of following both stocks AND rationality.

In my mind the Dow rising again to 12,300 resistance offers a splendid opportunity for another double-top failure. Should the Dow falter at 12,300, watch 12,150, because that will be the first trip-wire of a much larger fall.

US DOLLAR INDEX is down 13.6 basis points (0.17%) to 80.361. Mattereth not, so long as it remains above morale-maintaining 80, and technical support at 79.50. Trend in force remains in force until violated, and this trend is up.

Euro hardly worth talking about. Close at 1.2962, up 0.16%, but what a little mouse-burp deal. Who cares? Yen rose 0.42% to 128.82c/Y100 (Y77.63/$1), edging away from its lower channel line, at least enough so that you could slip a thin piece of paper between it and the line. Nothing happening there.

I felt like a bimetallic thermostat in West Texas today, not knowing whether to heat or cool. Gold fell a meaty 1.5%, down $23.10 to $1,539.90 on Comex (low came at -- Eeek! -- $1,522!) but silver ROSE 8.2C to 2727.4c, then rose another 50c in the aftermarket!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.