Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Gold Price Fell Below $1,600, Expect a Move Higher Before the Week Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1594.20
Change : (10.50) or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 2869.70
Change : 34.90 cents or -1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.553
Change : 0.306 or 0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01800
Change : -0.000100 or -0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1437.10
Change : 5.10 or 0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 663.50
Change : 38.05 or 6.1%

S&P 500 : 1,265.43
Change : 0.01 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.38
Change : $ 1.03 or 0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.710
Change : 0.050 or 0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 428.31
Change : 5.06 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial : 12,291.35
Change : -2.65 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 79.80
Change : -0.440 or -0.5%

Interpreting the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE moves here lately is a work in progress. The GOLD PRICE gave back much of last week's gains by falling below $1,600 again. Lost $10.50 today to $1,594.20. Before you roll up your shirtsleeve and look for a razor blade, hang on. Last week gold punched through its 200 day moving average (now $1,621.83). It bounced off that, a wholly normal move. Let's guess it might even touch $1,570, then turn around and head for $1,680. Unless it closes below $1,562.50, that's what I expect, a move higher before the week ends.

The SILVER PRICE stands nearly on top of its uptrend line connecting the end-September and December lows. It's time to fish or cut bait. Should silver fall below 2800c, it will signal further falls coming, at least to 2600c. Today on Comex silver fell 34.9c to 2869.7.

As it now stands, though, I expect silver to turn around from here and rise again. It's a roll of the dice, however.

I drove down nearly to Birmingham today to swap four shoats for two Great Pyrenees pups, and it was COLD. I think I got the better part of that bargain, but then again, you can't eat dogs. Leastways, better not in Tennessee. Most people will shoot you if you eat their dog, hot dogs excepted.

For all the crowing about stocks ending the year in "positive territory," 'tain't much to brag about. Dow closed 2010 at 11,573.42, so today's price brings it up by a not-very-remarkable 6.2% -- not since it has had almost 365 days to do something. S&P500 is up by only 0.63% (yes, the decimal point IS in the right spot).

Now why do you reckon that the broader measure of the stock market, the S&P500, would have risen a slight less-than-two-thirds-of-one-percent while the Dow with only 30 stocks rose 6.2%? As Yogurt said in the movie, Space Balls, "Moichendizing!" My guess is the Nice Government Men wanted the widely-watched Dow to look good for the year, but what do I know? Nothing. I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee.

Today the Dow dropped 2.65 (0.02%) to 12,291.35. I have repeatedly said I didn't expect the Dow to beat 12,200 -- so call it 12,300. It's all the same resistance level. S&P500 closed 1,265.43, up -- get this -- 0.1. Big day on the trading floor.

Here's a little ditty for 2012:
Eschew stocks
In 2012
Or buy a shovel
And learn to delve.

Scrofulous US dollar index dropped 0.06% today, 44 basis points, to land at 79.796. Looks like NGM trying to square their books at year end with last year's 79.173 close. Makes no never mind. Dollar remains above the sharply rising uptrend line that began off the late October bottom. Unless it closes below 79.25, buck remains in an uptrend.

Scurvy euro profited from the dollar's stumble to rise 0.15% to 1.3068. It headeth still for 1.2000.

Scruffy yen gained 0.32% today, hopping off its bottom support line to perch on the 20 DMA. Look at the chart. It's being managed.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.