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Thursday, November 15, 2012

The Gold Price Closed at $1,713.30 and will Remain in the Uptrend Line Provided it Closes Above $1,705

Gold Price Close Today : 1713.30
Change : -16.20 or -0.94%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.665
Change : -0.206 or -0.63%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.451
Change : -0.164 or -0.31%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01907
Change : 0.000059 or 0.31%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1570.30
Change : -18.30 or -1.15%

Palladium Price Close Today : 630.40
Change : -10.35 or -1.62%

S&P 500 : 1,353.26
Change : -22.30 or -1.62%

Dow In GOLD$ : $151.32
Change : $ 0.96 or 0.64%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.320
Change : 0.047 or 0.64%

Dow in SILVER oz : 383.95
Change : 1.21 or 0.32%

Dow Industrial : 12,541.62
Change : -39.33 or -0.31%

US Dollar Index : 81.08
Change : -0.041 or -0.05%

The GOLD PRICE low today thoroughly befouled the picture of the last four days, like your muddy puppy walking across a Rembrandt. Low struck on a downspike that gapped from just below $1,720 to $1705.30 in one or two trades. Was that real, or an artifact? At any rate, it took about the same time to jump above $1,712. While today certainly messes up the 5-day picture, it harmeth not the longer view.

LO! In the last two days the GOLD/SILVER RATIO (gold divided by silver) hath fallen from 53.088 to 52.451, a 1.2% fall. Why do I mention that statistical tid-bit? Because it flies against our normal expectation that when silver and gold weaken, the ratio strengthens.

What, then, doth it portend? Underlying silver strength, I'd say. Strengthening that hunch is the wholesale premium on US 90% silver coin today, which rose 5c an ounce from an already high level. Most of the time that premium rise pinpoints silver strengthening for a jump. But what do I know? I just sit here watching the parade pass by.

The SILVER PRICE today slipped 20.6 cents to 3266.5c, down 0.63% while gold dove $16.20 to $1,713.30.

From 22 October the GOLD PRICE sketched support at a line slanting from $1,697 to about $1,710 today. It broke that neckline on 2 November to post a low at $1,672.50, spent two days down there then leapt above the neckline once again: left shoulder formed, head formed, now on to the right shoulder. Today's stumble only took gold back to that support line, now about $1,710, to validate it. Yes, it did close below the 20 DMA (now $1,716.17) but not by much. The upshot? Gold remains reversed into an uptrend as long as it closeth not below $1,705 or so.

SILVER also showed one of those very weird gaps down today, to 3217.7c in one trade, then gapping right back up to trade rest of the day above 3240c. Program trading? Nice Government Men? Wicked Witch of the East? Who cares, the attack failed. It didn't even take silver down to the neckline it has established like unto gold. And silver still stands above its 3208c 20 DMA. Still needs to hold on above 3150c.

So wring out those crying towels and put 'em away. Y'all don't need 'em. 'Twas a down day, but not bringing any meaningful change.

Y'all, if I had an imagination wilder than Stephen King's, I couldn't make up the stuff politicians do or say every day. The stupidity is so deeply ingrained it steals your breath away.

Some Japanese politician of the party set to win December snap elections called for the Bank of Japan to lower interest rates BELOW zero. Put that into context: Since 1990, the BoJ has been holding down interest rates most of the time. Yet the bust from Japan's boom that ended in 1990 endureth yet. It sounds like Ben Bernanke: "It hasn't worked for 22 years, so let's do some more of it, harder!"

Markets showed their admiration by sending the yen down 1.13% to 123.19 cents/Y100. This was the second straight day the yen's lost over 1%, that alone being a massive more for any currency.

Yen chart shows two MASSIVE down-gaps from 125.7c. When those Japanese Nice Government Men throw a party, they REALLY throw a party.

The euro added 0.3% today to $1.2771 on no news and for no reason. It is poking its nose through the overhead downtrend line, reaching toward the 200 and 62 day moving averages (128.25 and 128.27), where it will likely be slapped soundly back.

Meanwhile the US dollar index eased off slightly, by 4.1 basis points, to 81.075 right now. That signifieth little until you understand the low was 80.932 and the dollar still rebounded to close above 81. Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday the Dollar Index made lows about the same spot. At the top are two peaks which might make a double top. Dollar may also be climbing about as high as the US Nice Government Men can stand. Dollar could fall as low as 80.50 and still remain within its uptrend channel. 200 DMA stands at 80.69, all the other MAs are below that.

Currencies today: US$=Y81.18=E0.7831= 0.03061 oz silver = .00058 oz gold.

Stocks faltered in uncertainty as the day began, then sank decisively for the next two hours. They rallied, then sank again, lower than before. Ended the day with the Dow lighter by 29.33 at 12,541.62 (-0.23%) and the S&P500 shaved by 2.23 to 1,353.26 (-0.16%).

Today showed a little bouncy squiggle at 12,500 Dow support, but really the Dow needs to clear 12,750 before even a pointy-toe-shoe- wearing Wall Street tout will believe it has reversed.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.