Monday, November 26, 2012

The Gold Price Has a Clear Track to Rise for Months Can it reach $2,700 by Spring 2013?

Gold Price Close Today : 1749.60
Change : -1.80 or -0.10%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.137
Change : 0.021 or 0.06%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.252
Change : -0.084 or -0.16%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01951
Change : 0.000032 or 0.16%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1622.00
Change : 10.90 or 0.68%

Palladium Price Close Today : 661.20
Change : 12.95 or 2.00%

S&P 500 : 1,406.29
Change : -2.86 or -0.20%

Dow In GOLD$ : $153.28
Change : $ -0.33 or -0.21%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.415
Change : -0.016 or -0.21%

Dow in SILVER oz : 380.04
Change : -1.47 or -0.39%

Dow Industrial : 12,973.37
Change : -42.31 or -0.33%

US Dollar Index : 80.19
Change : -0.076 or -0.09%

The GOLD PRICE leapt $23.50, clean over all that $1740 resistance to $1,751.40. Silver jumped 77.2 cents on Friday to close over 3400c at 3411.6c.

Today both metals were digesting those gains. The GOLD PRICE backed off $1.80, nothing at all, to $1,749.60 and silver gained 2.1 cents to 3413.7c.

Just how good was Friday's leap? Plumb delicious. The SILVER PRICE cleared its 50 day moving average (3321c) and now standeth above its 200, 300, 20, and 50 DMAs in that order. Only thing standing between silver and eternal fame is now 3550, and it will slice through that like Jim Bowie slicing ripe peaches.

That gold looks just about as fine as silver. Punched through that 50 DMA ($1,742.39) on Friday, and also stands above its 150, 200, 20, and 50 DMAs now. And look at the RSI and MACD! Just like silver, gold has a clear track in front of it and can rise for another couple of months before it begins to look overbought.

Now, before y'all back up to that boot tree and start kicking yourselves, let me tell you that right here at a breakout is the time to buy. This rise will run into next spring and gold will reach $2,300 - $2,700. If the ratio drops to 30:1 by then, silver could stand at 9000c (that's $90 to y'all who can't cipher so quick). Buy it now.

Key to all this was the US dollar index' collapse on Friday. Lost 67.4 basis points (0.83%) to 80.267. Trading today at 80.191.

So what? Since December 2011 the US dollar index has been forming a giant Head and Shoulders top. Left shoulder peaked at 81.78 in January, came back to a 78.10 - 78.60 neckline, rose to an 84.10 head in July, fell back to 78.60 neckline in September, then last week topped that Right Shoulder at 81.46.

Although it has not yet broken down through the neckline (now about 78.60) it has plunged through the 200 DMA (80.75) and the 20 DMA (80.66). Looks sick as a hog eating tomatoes. Won't last long at these altitudes. Destined for lower ground.

Meanwhile the Euro is making hay. Crossed above the 50 DMA ($1.2917) on Friday, and closed today at $1.2970, a skootch under unchanged. I'll be mildly interested to see if it can break through the downtrend line about $1.3050, but not interested enough to buy the nasty thing. Makes no difference which of these scabby fiat currencies you look at, yen, dollar, or euro, all are destined for doom, and, we hope, history's dustbin. Swap fiat for silver or gold.

Yen, by the by, has been talked down 4% or more in the last two weeks by politicians. Bank of Japan needed take no action, just let the politicos run their mouths and they've driven the yen from 126.43 cents in mid-November to 121.93 today. Hard as it is either to imagine or to swallow, the Japanese economy is even more indebted and in worse shape than the US. When Humpty Shirakawa falls off that wall, he will splatter egg yolk all over east Asia.

Stock investors and brokers are critters of habit. They heard stocks usually rise this time of year, and will bite on a rumor like that every time. On Friday the Dow rose 172.79 to close at 13,009.68. S&P500 added 18.13 (both rose 1.3%) to 1,409.15. Both backed off today, Dow by 42.31 to 12,967.37 and the S&P500 by 2.86 to 1,406.29.

Any of y'all ever heard of the Tulip Bubble? This works a lot the same way.

Don’t ne'er a one of y'all point a finger at me and say I didn't warn y'all, 'cause I did. I kept telling y'all silver and gold had bottomed and y'all ought to buy. The only thing worse than somebody who doesn't listen is somebody who keeps saying, "I told you so!"

Yeah, I know: I'm crazy. People been telling me that for years, some of 'em official NGM. But I'm not making this up. If you want to spend a couple of weeks slaving over a hot chart, you'll come to the same conclusions.

But mercy! I'm nothing more than a natural born fool from Tennessee. Don't listen to me.

I have to ask you birdwatchers something. Any of y'all ever seen a FLOCK of red-headed woodpeckers? Driving down the road Saturday I saw more than a dozen of 'em chasing and playing with each other, then today about as many showed up in my front yard, having a field day on the branches. Any idea what motivated them, other than having a good time and jubilating with each other?


One of the most commonly traded gold coins in the world (thanks to their empire) is the Netherlands Ten Guilder containing 0.1947 troy ounce fine gold. These are all minted before 1934.

These small coins usually cost 6% to 8% or more over their gold content. I bought a batch of them right and can sell these at about the same price as the big Mexican fifty pesos.

Prices are based on gold spot at $1,749.60 and silver spot at $34.137. All lots are sold subject to the special conditions below, no exceptions. I have only 29 lots.

ONE LOT consists of Ten (10) each Netherlands ten guilders at a 4% premium over their gold content or $354.25 each. So the total cost of one lot will be 10 x $354.25 = $3,542.50 plus $25 shipping = $3,567.50.

Limit four lots per customer, please.

Special Conditions:

If I have miscounted my inventory and come up short, the LAST person to order will receive fewer coins, at a price reduced to reflect the smaller quantity.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

If you want faster shipping, please send a wire (wire instructions will appear on your trade confirmation). ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to [email protected] No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to this email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

7. Mention in your email.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.