Monday, November 05, 2012

The Gold Price Closed Up $8.10 at $1,683.20 I'm Buying Both Silver and Gold Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1683.20
Change : 8.10 or 0.48%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.13
Change : 0.278 or 0.90%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.067
Change : -0.225 or -0.41%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01850
Change : 0.000077 or 0.42%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1538.70
Change : 2.20 or 0.14%

Palladium Price Close Today : 602.20
Change : 3.35 or 0.56%

S&P 500 : 1,417.26
Change : 3.06 or 0.22%

Dow In GOLD$ : $161.13
Change : $ (0.52) or -0.32%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.795
Change : -0.025 or -0.32%

Dow in SILVER oz : 421.45
Change : -3.17 or -0.75%

Dow Industrial : 13,112.44
Change : 19.28 or 0.15%

US Dollar Index : 80.72
Change : 0.131 or 0.16%

Please accept my humble thanks for all your emails offering condolences and sympathy on my daughter-in-law's death. I deeply appreciate your kind sympathy. I pray that out of this evil event God will bring good things, and believe he has already begun.

Friday brought the [likely] final break in the silver and GOLD PRICE correction.

This is a sick stock market that has topped. Take your money out of stocks and put it into silver and gold.

Thursday the silver and GOLD PRICE dilated and diddled, but Friday the dam burst. Friday took gold down $40 to $1,674 and silver down an agonizing 189.1 cents to 3083.5c. The GOLD/SILVER RATIO popped up to 54.292.

Guessing, anticipating, and prognosticating, I suspect that Friday's Niagara pretty well ended the correction that began in October (really mid-September with the first peak of a double top). Friday's gold low at $1,674.97 fairly fulfilled at 61.8% correction. Gold is also hovering above its 200 Dma ($1,665.80) and 150 DMA ($1,651.77), the frequent targets of its bull market corrections.

Could it drop more? Sure, but what is the expected risk of that? Let's say to the August low at $1,650. From today's close that's a tee-tiny 1.9% downside risk, enough for me to throw in the towel and stop waiting. That's true, even though I see a remote possibility it might drop to $1,620 where the long term down-trend line (from Sept 2011) meets the uptrend line from last summer.

The SILVER PRICE appears to have completed a move analogous to gold's but -- and here's the worst burr under my saddle -- it hasn't made that 61.8% correction. Friday's low came at 3082c, not some price nearer 3000c. That leaves some slack, some possibility for another spike down.

But whither? What's the risk? Give it a wide margin, go back to this summer's August resistance at 2833c. That's an 8.9% risk from here, and I don't think silver will drop that far. At 3000c, silver will attract buyers like pretty girls attract men to a kissing booth. And from today's 3111.3c close, that's a 3.6% risk.

As I have many times repeated, I am only a natural born fool from Tennessee, so don't swing over hell using my opinion for a rope. But fool or not, I will be buying both silver and gold tomorrow, while the market is frozen before the US election. Y'all, on the other hand, are free to put your trust in politics, and hope that will bail you out.

Relentlessly, yea, relentlessly the US dollar index continues to climb: 80.018 on 1 November, 80.606 on 2 November, and 80.723 today. Rose 13.1 basis points to 80.723, up 0.17% today.

On a longer term chart, the dollar index has climbed back over the mid-channel trend line that stretches back to May 2011. Friday it jumped up to its 200 Day Moving Average AND out of the range below 80.25 which had imprisoned it. Today, it closed above that 200 DMA (80.63), and already stands above its 20 (79.92) and 50 DMA (80.00). All that and other indicators point to a higher dollar. Maybe this merely anticipates some change from the US presidential election, but technically the trend points higher.

Most of the dollar's gains are being paid by the euro. It gapped down Friday and today, ending down 0.78% at $1.2829. Now it has drawn nigh its crucial 62 DMA ($1.2774). If it closes below that, 'twill drop to $1.2600. It also today closed below the major downtrend line. Market is screaming, "No good news for Europe!"

The yen rose 0.23% today to 124.36 cents per 100 yen. Friday it touched one of the many dropping fan lines, and bounced up. Yen has waterfalled like IguaƧu from 128.91c at end-September. Shouldn't some little rally follow?

What must you say about stocks when the Dow gains 138.61 on Thursday then loses 139.46? Sick. Puking sick.

Today saved no face. Dow gained 19.28 (0.15%) to 13,112.44 while the S&P500 raked in 3.06 (0.22%) to 1,417.26. Look at the chart, Immediately you'll see the Dow has been hovering for two weeks like smoke over a garbage dump, just above the 200 DMA (12,987.89). Tried once to pierce that neckline from a head and shoulders earlier this year, with shameful failure. Probably the only thing holding it up is the Quixotic hope that Romney can beat the incumbent, Bernard O'Bama.

Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November,
Gunpowder, treason, and plot!

On 5 November 1605 eleven men led by Guy Fawkes hatched a plot to return England to Roman Catholic obedience by blowing up the King and all the Parliament members on 5 November, packing 36 barrels of gunpowder under the Houses of Parliament. On 4 November the plot was uncovered, the conspirators arrested, and later tried, and convicted. Next January Fawkes and 7 other survivors were hanged, drawn, and quartered and their heads displayed on pikes on London Bridge. The next year Parliament established 5 November as a national day of Thanksgiving. Since then the English have celebrated with bonfires and fireworks. Onto the bonfires they toss effigies called "Guys", and recite the other two lines of the verse I began above:

I see no reason why Gunpowered Treason
Should ever be forgot.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.