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Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Gold Price Lost $2 Today is Silver's Strength Signalling a Short Lived Fall?

Gold Price Close Today : 1692.40
Change : -2.00 or -0.12%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.883
Change : 0.149 or 0.46%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.467
Change : -0.295 or -0.57%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01943
Change : 0.000111 or 0.57%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.40
Change : 1.30 or 0.08%

Palladium Price Close Today : 681.10
Change : 4.85 or 0.72%

S&P 500 : 1,409.28
Change : 2.23 or 0.16%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.21
Change : $ 1.21 or 0.77%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.702
Change : 0.059 or 0.77%

Dow in SILVER oz : 396.39
Change : 0.72 or 0.18%

Dow Industrial : 13,034.49
Change : 82.71 or 0.64%

US Dollar Index : 79.83
Change : 0.153 or 0.19%

The silver and GOLD PRICE charts leave me feeling uncomfortable. They appeared confused today, silver up 14.9 cents to 3288.3c while gold backed off $2 to $1,692.40.

Both charts show a possible reversal pattern, but only if . . .

The GOLD PRICE trades tomorrow not lower than $1,690. Gold left behind a V bottom today, but no more enthusiastic than a condemned man is about capital punishment.

Gold's low came at $1,685.22, about $3 lower than yesterday, and not an encouraging sign. High reached only the $1,705 resistance ($1,706.60) but slipped quickly back.

The SILVER PRICE acted stronger, but also made a new low for the move at 3251c, also with a V-bottom that finished the day above yesterday's lows.

What continues to scratch the inside of my skull is why silver is holding up so much better than gold. Why? Believe it or not, that makes me suspect we haven't yet seen this move's bottom. Why? Because in corrections silver is usually weaker than gold -- smaller market, more volatile up and down. So silver holding up implies that at some point not long distant, it will break to catch up with gold's plunge.

The other interpretation is that silver's strength is genuine. In that case, silver's divergence from gold implies metals have not much further to fall.

No, I don't know which. Just have to wait until the market makes its mind known.

Did y'all hear the news today? The Republicans and Congress are near a deal on the fiscal cliff. Whoops -- no, no, make that NOT near a deal on the fiscal cliff. Wait, wait, make that a fiscal-cliff crazed Tennessee moneychanger appeared in Washington, DC and pushed the president AND congress over the fiscal cliff.

Rather than thinking about goofball stuff like congress and the fiscal cliff, Susan and I went today to visit friends who run Tennessee's only Grade A goat dairy and make cheese. They built an elegant and beautiful cheese cave and now offer aged as well as fresh cheese. Trained in Germany, I am one of Tennessee's only Grade A Cheese Snobs, and refuse even to look at Kraft "cheese" or any cheese smothered by wrapping in cellophane. Their Tenasi Tomme ranks with the best cheese I have eaten anywhere in the world. We bought three big wheels, but unfortunately y'all (who by now are all salivating) can't buy it over the internet. But you can visit Bonnie Blue Farm at their website, www.bonniebluefarm.com.

Wow. People who take pride in what they do, and do it well. Now that's the BIG news for the day.

Although the US dollar rallied a modest 15.3 basis points (0.2%) today to 79.827, it didn't change its slouchy posture or dreadful future. More, it didn't affect other markets much. Silly stock market for more than a year has been nearly lockstepping opposite the dollar, which makes as much sense as buying a bicycle for a fish. Apparently gullible investors believe that a depreciating dollar is good for the economy. This is a proposition so cosmically stupid I hardly know where to begin refuting it. Piteeful.

Yen lost more today than it gained yesterday, 0.59%, to close at 121.31c. Looks like it's being slapped back and forth between manipulators and speculators.

Euro lost 0.17% to $1.3071, still dancing along that downtrend line indecisively, unable to advance or fall. RSI looks a bit past its "sell-by" date, but the MACD gives it a little more room.

US$1=Y82.43=E0.7651=0.000 591 oz Au=0.030 411 oz Ag.

Stocks rose today, but without changing anything. Wasted effort, burning up buying power. Dow gained 82.71 (0.64%) to 13,034.49. Look at the 5 day chart and you'll see no progress, only a double top with Monday's high (posted today) and a broadening top. Stocks started rising about 11:00 off their low, but were stopped again at 13,080. Nothing changes until stocks beat that mark.

S&P500 jiggled along way behind the Dow, up 2.23 (0.16%) to 1,409.28. Today's top at 1,415 was a little lower than Monday's and Tuesday's 1,420. This also resembles a broadening top. I don't know sic 'em from come here, but this chart would not make me feel warm, comfy, and ready to take a nap.

On 5 December 1848 US president (and Tennessean) James K. Polk triggered the Gold Rush of '49 by confirming that gold had been discovered in California.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.