Gold Price Close Today : 1,674.80
Gold Price Close 3-Jan-12 : 1,599.70
Change : 75.10 or 4.7%
Silver Price Close Today : 3017.3
Silver Price Close 3-Jan-12 : 2953.3
Change : 64.00 or 2.2%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.507
Gold Silver Ratio 3-Jan-12 : 54.167
Change : 1.34 or 2.5%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01802
Silver Gold Ratio 3-Jan-12 : 0.01846
Change : -0.00045 or -2.4%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 161.74
Dow in Gold Dollars 3-Jan-12 : $ 160.20
Change : $1.54 or 1.0%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.824
Dow in Gold Ounces 3-Jan-12 : 7.750
Change : 0.07 or 1.0%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 434.30
Dow in Silver Ounces 3-Jan-12 : 419.78
Change : 14.52 or 3.5%
Dow Industrial : 13,104.14
Dow Industrial 3-Jan-12 : 12,397.38
Change : 706.76 or 5.7%
S&P 500 : 1,426.19
S&P 500 3-Jan-12 : 1,277.06
Change : 149.13 or 11.7%
US Dollar Index : 79.777
US Dollar Index 3-Jan-12 : 79.620
Change : 0.157 or 0.2%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,538.70
Platinum Price Close 3-Jan-12 : 1,435.00
Change : 103.70 or 7.2%
Palladium Price Close Today : 702.65
Palladium Price Close 3-Jan-12 : 667.25
Change : 35.40 or 5.3%
The GOLD PRICE probably made its ultimate low for this move on December 20 with a low at $1,636.00, silver the same day with a 2964c low. But we'll see. Rest of the year should prove spectacular for silver and gold, with gold reaching $2,300 by June and silver $51 or higher.
Long term situation is this: from 2008 through April and August 2011 silver and gold rallied, from 880 cents to 4850c and from $705 to $1,880. After a rally that long, a correction follows, so do go wringing out your hankies on me. It's nature. Both the SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE broke through the downtrend lines from those 2011 highs in August 2012, and rallied to 3450c and $1,800, then -- no surprise, folks -- corrected. It now appears they corrected almost al the way back to those downtrend lines for a Final Kiss Good-Bye, with no intention of coming back.
But don't pay no 'tention to me! I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee who didn't know no more in 2001 than to trade them good Wall Street stocks for that ol' silver and gold. What do you expect from a fool like that?
The silver and GOLD PRICE could make one deeper strike down, but daily that grows less likely. If so, bottoms are 2900c and $1,620 or so.
Today gold gained an astonishing $19.90 to close at $1,674.80, above the November low close but not quite to the December low at $1,684.20. Also closed above the 200 ($1,662.70) and 150 ($1,6783.71) day moving averages. Good, good, good. First tripwire of an upmove, the 20 DMA stands only about $10 above at $1,685.80.
We may have seen the bottom. Regardless, I'm buying. I'll take some chance.
The SILVER PRICE today gained 25.3 cents to 3017.3c, not as enthusiastic as gold. Gold was very perky, silver just dragged along.
That's okay. Silver often lags as rallies begin. Silver stands below its 200 DMA (3075c) and 150 DMA (3075C), but the big barrier now is first 3100c and then 3200c. Needs to punch through those to make itself respected.
Whether we have already seen the lows for this silver and gold correction or not, by mid-January they should be behind us. A very fast rise will signal no more downside coming any time soon.
It's time to buy more silver and gold. The monetary and economic problems that are driving monetary demand into silver and gold have not been cured, not lessened, and will return with a vengeance to drive them much, much higher. Don't get stuck holding stocks or dollars -- or euros or yen, for that matter.
I'm not too high on these year-end comparisons, since I am cynical enough to believe (from past evidence) that the Nice Government Men manipulate these figures to create a Potemkin economic performance. Yet some crave them, so I basely comply, slave to the public mood that I am.
For the year, the Dow appeared to do very well, up 5.7% and the S&P500 up 11.7%. Appeared, that is, to do well until you remember than valued against gold, the Dow gained only 1% and against silver only 3.5%. And you remember that silver and gold spent most of the year correcting a preceding THREE YEAR rise. Whoops -- tacky of me to mention that, wasn't it?
Big gainers among the metals, thanks to strikes in supply-rich Africa, were Platinum (up 7.2%) and palladium (up 5.3%). Both are just too quirky for me to parse.
But how about that US dollar index, Currency Fans? Stayed within 0.2% of where it began the year. Oh, yeah, that's a "natural" market. Naw, no NGM fiddling around in THAT market, no, sir!
What about next year?
Big open garbage can in the living room is the bond market, where the Fed hath so long suppressed interest rates. One day bond buyers will catch on that the Fed can only suppress rates by printing money, and the Fed's bond bubble will burst and interest rates will scream like New Year's rockets to the sky. Good chance that will happen next year.
Fed is busy buying maggoty Mortgage Backed Securities from the banks trying to clean up their balance sheets, but there are more corpses in those closets than in Fibber McGee's. Same holds for European banks, only worse. And don't even talk about Japanese banks. So we're beginning the year carrying the same slimy load of bad banks we carried into last year.
Fiscal cliff? Well, Quarterback O'Bama slammed down the football, but unfortunately he was still a few yards shy of the goal line. 'Twill turn out no more than a mouse-burp. Federal government will keep spending and borrowing, and Fed will keep monetizing the debt. They can do no other, they are made to do that. They inflate, or die. Course, in the end they will inflate AND die, but as long as that comes "tomorrow," who cares?
US dollar index has range-traded since 2008 between 71.33 and 89.11, more narrowly (last half 2010 - 2012) 84 - 72.7. Long term the trend is down, but clearly the Fed is trying to maintain a range with the yen and euro of about US$1=Y85=E0.85 to US$1=Y74=E0.74 (or think of it as Y74 on the low side and Y135 on the high side, or E118 low and E135 high). As long as they depreciate in unison, no destructive competitive devaluation takes place. And make no mistakes, central banks work together as closely as pickpockets at a Yankees ball game, and for the same reason.
US$=Y86.75=E0.7578=0.033 142 oz Ag=0.000 597 oz Au.
Euro may rise as high as $1.3500 early in the year, before the corpses come floating to the top of the pond again. Closed today $1.3196, down 0.17%.
Japanese politicians have run their "depreciate the yen" game about as far as the Fed and ECB can tolerate. Yen hit a new low for the move today at 115.28c/Y100 (US$1=Y86.75). That can't last much longer, but it helps Japanese imports while it does. Of course, if Abe gets his way, the inflation will wreck the Japanese economy, already the most over-indebted of the three big ones.
God bless y'all in 2013 and always!
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
