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Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The Gold Price Closed Down Slightly Remember to be Patient it's a Primary Uptrend

Gold Price Close Today : 1,666.70
Change : -1.80 or -0.11%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.12
Change : -0.48 or -1.52%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.60
Change : 0.76 or 1.43%

Yesterday the GOLD PRICE went down & pierced its 200 day moving average ($1,663.33) with a $1,662.70 low, but todays $1,666.90 low didn't touch it. Gold has its feet tangled in its 150 DMA (1,669.56) & 200 DMA. Todays high poked up to $1,676.41.

All this speaks three ways: it might have reached its lower limit, it might sink to $1,645 where the June 2012 low uptrend line will catch it, or it might sink to $1,620 - $1,600 where the downtrend from the September 2011 high will catch it.

The GOLD PRICE had a lot of positive sentiment to work off. That's what corrections are all about, the market pendulum swinging from way-too-optimistic to way-too-pessimistic, before it swings back to way-too-optimistic. What we want for gold is REALLY negative sentiment, lots more of those internet articles that are now starting to appear calling for gold at $1,400 or lower. Of course, these all come from the folks who were also wrong when gold stood at $1,800.

The SILVER PRICE went through the 300 DMA (3135) and almost to the 200 DMA (3086c). That 200 also stands even with the uptrend from June, so it ought to hold. Today's low nearly touched it at 3090c. Only other logical target is the downtrend line from the April 2011 high, now about 2900c.

Be patient, lift your head above the crowd & watch the horizon. It's a primary uptrend.

There's a proverb that says, "Because the sentence against evil is not executed speedily, men's hearts are fully set to do evil." We're all such goofs that we see only what's going on around us, and figure it'll pretty much stay the same forever. After all, the old rules, the ancient law, doesn't count anymore in this new age. We're in a new era, and that changes everything.

That reasoning is what I call "a mite previous." Just as people do more & more wicked things when they see evil men go unpunished (no time to list even 1/100 of those recent names!), assuming they can get away with evil, too, so they think that all the injustices, inequities, and frauds built into the American economic & financial system will never come home to roost. Washington & the rest of us will just muddle through in the end, somehow, & prosperity will return. The electrons will save us. The ancient law has died.

Ponder only the US monetary & banking system, which builds in the twin frauds of inflation & fractional reserve. Every dollar they create steals a dollar from someone, & hurts the least & poorest most of all. Do Americans really believe that any society built on a foundation of theft can last?

I have bad news for y'all: the ancient law has never died. It may delay but it will appear. Rudyard Kipling said it quite clearly in his poem, "Gods of the Copybook Headings":

"And that after this is accomplished, & the brave new world begins

"When all men are paid for existing & no man must pay for his sins,

"As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,

"The gods of the Copybook Headings with terror & slaughter return."

If you ask me why I invest in silver & gold, I could quickly cite you twenty or so sound logical reasons, but underlying them all is this warm certainty & fear: the ancient law has never died.

But what do I know? I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, & tom-foolish enough to be glad of it.

One of those worrisome harbingers is the yield on Ten year US treasuries. The criminals at the Federal Reserve haver created a bubble in bonds with their zero interest rate policy, & someday the pin will stick. Last few days the yield has risen to near the top of the range. It's not near, yet, most likely, but when it hits a panic out of bonds & the dollar will spawn problems so thorny they'll leave Ben Bernanke looking like he's been cuddling a porcupine.

After falling overnight to a V-bottom at 79.008, the dollar index turned around and climbed to a close 15.4 basis points (0.2%) above yesterday's. This is nothing to brag about, unless you are drunk. Dollar's trend is firmly down with plenty of room to go downer.

Euro rose today to $1,132.26, but 99% of that gain came yesterday. Yen has fallen again, down 0.24% today to 118.5 cents/Y100. Both the Yen & the Euro are reaching for what I suspect are the limits of the range the Nice Government Men, with their chain pulled globally by the Fed Reserve's NGM, will tolerate, namely, Y85 or E0.85 below and Y135 or E$1.35 above. Japanese must be in real trouble to let them drive their currency so low.

US$1=Y84.46=E0.7555=0.032 211 oz Ag=0.000 600 oz. Au.

Stocks crumpled again at 13,300 and fell today almost as much as they rose yesterday, down 98.96 (0.74%) after rising 115.57 yesterday. Dow scored 13,251.97 at closing, while the S&P had lost 0.76% (10.98) at 1,435.81.

While that might mark the end of stocks' rally, a trend in force deserves the presumption it will remain in force until it confirms it's not. Today's fall wasn't near enough to do that. Expect higher stock prices, although we are reaching that time around the holidays when markets go dead, & that might dampen things until Boxing Day.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.