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Wednesday, February 06, 2013

The Gold Price Closed Towards the Top of Today's Range Up $5.30 at $1,677.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1677.70
Change : 5.30 or 0.32%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.861
Change : -0.002 or -0.01%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.657
Change : 0.170 or 0.32%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01899
Change : -0.000061 or -0.32%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1736.50
Change : 30.80 or 1.81%

Palladium Price Close Today : 764.40
Change : -0.65 or -0.08%

S&P 500 : 1,512.12
Change : 0.83 or 0.05%

Dow In GOLD$ : $172.34
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.55%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.337
Change : 0.363 or 4.55%

Dow in SILVER oz : 438.99
Change : 0.25 or 0.06%

Dow Industrial : 13,986.52
Change : 7.22 or 0.05%

US Dollar Index : 79.76
Change : 0.218 or 0.27%

The GOLD PRICE couldn't quite reach its 50 DMA ($1,681.40) with a $1,678.89 high, but did close toward the top of the day's range. And it's above its 20 DMA.

The SILVER PRICE lost 2/10 cent today to 3186.1c. GOLD gained $5.30 to $1,677.70. This is tiresome, but underneath pressure is building. Both are pushing up against their downtrend lines, and must either break through toward the sky or plunge earthward again.

Silver slung one leg over that 50 DMA (3171c) and that was progress. That 50 DMA has held silver prisoner too long. Left me uneasy that today's range (3186c - 3158c) was narrower and lower than yesterday's.

Mercy, we've gone from riches to rags here, eking out these measly days with no range and no direction. Hush, be patient, time's a coming when silver and gold will roar again. Won't be long.

Just look out for one thing: all this nicey-nicey feeling and puffed up good news changes nothing: banks are still filled with rotten assets, governments are back-breaking overindebted, inflation is ruing currencies and economies. This is no more than a January thaw, with hard freeze aplenty coming.

Years ago I used to write for a very clever man who taught me always to ask one question about politics and government policies and legislation: Cui bono? Who benefits? Follow the money.

Want to know whose behind ending logging on public lands in the Northwest? Follow the money. Whose pocket will the action fill?

Likewise, look at the present government and Federal Reserve acts: who benefits?

Which reminds me of something nearby. On National Proletarian Radio this morning they were droning about the danger of economic collapse in Greece or Puerto Rico. Suddenly I realized they are suckering us with that language. Think about Greece and Europe's "sovereign debt crisis." It's not the economy that's in danger of collapsing, but governments who can't pay their debts and banks who loaned to them. Get rid of those tapeworms, and the economy will hum along like a top. Let 'em collapse, I say.

As I've been repeating, it's as dangerous trying to forecast a mania market like stocks right now as it is to take pity on a half-frozen rattlesnake and snuggle him in your bosom under your tee shirt to warm him up. He'll bite you every time. Yet I ain't no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, so here I'll try again. Don't bite me if I'm wrong!

Dow has formed a diamond over the last seven days, a pattern that often marks a top. Sometimes they take a maddeningly long while to resolve, too, trans- mogrifying into a broadening top. Point is, stocks can't stop here, or they'll fall down. Mania feeds on itself, or dies.

Dow today rose a tee-tiny 7.22 (0.05%) to 13,986.52. S&P500 rose an even tee-tinier 0.83 (also 0.05%) to 1,512.12. I may be a fool, but I ain't fool enough to ride that boat all the way over Niagara Falls.

I'm still worrying at the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver charts like a feist dog over a big rat. Dow in Gold has painted an Island Reversal top, between 8.28 and 8.42 oz, isolated by a clean gap beneath. Must close above 8.42 oz to gainsay that interpretation.

Dow in Silver also has a cluster of trading days isolated by gaps, but I'm not brave enough to call it anything. Looks like one of those paper targets after you hit it with double ought buckshot. Doesn't look like any continuation pattern, though.

I've been through this before, watching and vexing myself with the Dow in Gold chart in 1999. I watched it day by day, sweating it out, after it topped on 25 August 1999. After that the Dow hit its nominal high in January 2000 at 11,722, but the Dow in God was lower, strongly confirming that the trend had indeed changed. But I watched anxiously for months and months, toting up each succeeding confirmation. All this is my way of saying these spreads are very reliable, but call for mountainous patience.

Looks like Japan staged a Pearl Harbor in the currency wars back in November. Closed today up 0.13% at 106.91 cents/Y100, down 17.5% since September. When it snaps back and catches all the shorts, don't be standing in the way.

Euro eased off today 0.47% to $1.3519, reflecting the US dollar index' 21.8 basis point (0.27%) rise to 79.758. The dollar tried to pierce its 20 DMA (79.71) and was soundly slapped for its trouble. Euro may have topped with its $1.3711 high last Friday.

TO MEMORIZE TODAY: "There are some things worse than hanging and extermination. We reckon giving up the right of self-government one of those things." -- Jefferson Davis, first president of the Confederate States of America.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.