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Monday, February 11, 2013

The Gold Price Got the Short End of the Stick Loosing 1.07% Today to Close at $1,648.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1,648.20
Change : -17.80 or -1.07%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.895
Change : -0.530 or -1.69%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.348
Change : 0.333 or 0.63%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01874
Change : -0.000118 or -0.62%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1695.00
Change : -18.50 or -1.08%

Palladium Price Close Today : 758.20
Change : 7.10 or 0.95%

S&P 500 : 1,517.01
Change : -0.92 or -0.06%

Dow In GOLD$ : $175.23
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.47%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.477
Change : 0.363 or 4.47%

Dow in SILVER oz : 452.22
Change : 6.93 or 1.56%

Dow Industrial : 13,971.24
Change : -21.97 or -0.16%

US Dollar Index : 80.20
Change : -0.012 or -0.01%

The silver and GOLD PRICE couldn't agree today, and gold got the short end of the stick.

Gold fell through the uptrend line from the June 2012 low, which formed the bottom boundary of its even-sided triangle. Low came at $1,643.38. Unless the GOLD PRICE jumps tomorrow and leaves that behind as a spike low, then it will continue down to $1,629, the last low, and the same place an internal support line should catch it. If it did fall through that line, then it will head for the downtrend line from the September 2011 high, now about $1,595.

The SILVER PRICE, y'all will recall, shows greater strength than gold when stocks are rising. Not too surprising, then, that silver fell not as hard as gold today. Stopped slightly before it hit the June 12 uptrend line with a 3089.5c low. That line also forms the bottom boundary of that even-sided triangle. Oh, the 200 day is also right below, at 3067c. If silver breaks that support tomorrow, it could fall to 2964c, but we might be dealing with another spike bottom. Momentum indicators are plumb discouraging, too.

Here I am fidgeting and fussing over 1% or 1.7% moves in silver and gold, and then I get slapped in the face by a currency devaluation in Venezuela. Last Friday, without much warning, Venezuela devalued the bolivar from 4.3 to the dollar to 6.3 to the dollar, a 31.75% loss overnight. Remember that the Nice Government Men give you no warning about these Surprise Parties, because they want the maximum catch of victims in their trap.

Let me give y'all that in terms that you can grasp easily. If the Fed devalued the US dollar 31.75% overnight (and I am NOT saying Ben the Benevolent and Beneficient is about to do that), and you went to bed with silver at $31/oz and gold at $1,660, you would wake up to silver at $40.84 and gold at $2,187.05.

In the good ol' US of A, of course, our rulers steal our money less crudely as the Venezuelans. Rather, our Nice Government men spread the devaluation out over several years, so you go to sleep in 2001 with gold at $252 and silver at $4.01, and wake up in 2013 to $1,660 gold and $31 silver. None of them overnight devaluations for us, no sirree. We're civilized. AND democratic. All our banks are equal.

Folks, when you buy silver and gold, don't ever lose sight of what you are protecting yourself from: the insidious, sudden or slow, theft of your wealth by monetary manipulation. That's why it doesn't pay to let your mind fix too narrowly on daily, weekly, or even yearly moves. You have to ride that primary trend.

But it hurt anyway when silver and gold tumbled to or broke the bottom of that triangle I've been writing about. Silver lost 53 cents and struck bottom at 3089.5 cents. Gold shed $17.80 to perch at $1,648.20. I'll explain below.

Dollar index is stretching higher and has spooked stock investors, I suspect. It edged back today, down 1.2 basis points to 80.199, practically flat. Euro rose, but not convincingly, by 0.28% to $1.3403. If it breaks $1.3150 then it will appear that the long rally from last July has ended. Never mind the yen -- it fell to yet another new low today, down 1.81% to close at 105.99c/Y100. No bottom there, it seems.

Stocks paused today. Dow fell 21.73 (0.16%) to 13,971.24, S&P500 lost 0.92 (0.06%) to 1,517.01.

Way more interesting are the Dow in Silver and Dow in Gold. Dow in Silver gapped up, but only to the last high. Dow in Gold gapped up past the last high. I have to read that as a clear message that the Dow in Gold will rise at least to 9.12 oz (GS188.53). That strongly implies that the Dow in silver will also rise, probably to or beyond the last intraday high (July 2012) at 479.27 oz. Only a reversal in the next day or so would gainsay that.

Today spreads out another example of why H.L. Hunt's wisdom was so useful when he said, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down."

Y'all can fall out by the side of the road in the ditch if you want, but I'm fixing to keep on walking.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.