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Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Dropped Today With the Gold Price Closing at $1,286

Gold Price Close Today : 1286.00
Change : -40.50 or -3.05%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.124
Change : -0.532 or -2.46%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.879
Change : -0.375 or -0.61%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01643
Change : 0.000100 or 0.62%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1381.70
Change : -26.40 or -1.87%

Palladium Price Close Today : 717.90
Change : -8.25 or -1.14%

S&P 500 : 1,695.00
Change : 13.45 or 0.80%

Dow In GOLD$ : $244.20
Change : $ 8.42 or 3.57%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.813
Change : 0.407 or 3.57%

Dow in SILVER oz : 719.17
Change : 20.53 or 2.94%

Dow Industrial : 15,191.70
Change : 62.03 or 0.41%

US Dollar Index : 80.189
Change : -0.035 or -0.04%

Silver and GOLD PRICES dropped today, the gold price broke $1,325 support about 11:00 and fell clean through $1,300 quickly, with a low at $1,282.40. The $1,286 close was near the low.

Today was complicated. I'll explain. The SILVER PRICE break and low took it below 2100c to 2063cents, but it refused to stay there and climbed back above 2100c and closed barely above an internal support line. Still, it broke the downtrend line from the August low.

The GOLD PRICE formed an upside down head and shoulders and harrowing as today's outcome was, it only took gold back to the neckline.

More complication: the GOLD/SILVER RATIO today FELL from 61.253 yesterday to 60.879 today. That gainsays gold's weakness. When metals are weak, the ratio usually rises, because silver, the smaller and more volatile market, tends to be weaker than gold. When silver and gold prices are strong and rising, the ratio drops. Only one day's performance, but in the teeth of gold's fainting spell, silver bounced back and the ratio rose, and that says something.

Everything seems to be pointing to lower silver and gold prices, but these non-confirmations remain a burr under that saddle. Markets like to surprise, maybe silver and gold will this time. If not, gold could drop to $1,280, or even lower, toward that June low. Silver finds support at 2050c.

Just in case, I bought a little gold today.

Here's a warning for y'all: remember the lemming. Normally a sensible rodent, he lives out his life in the frozen north, gnawing on vegetation and living a sensible life. Suddenly the whole lot of 'em takes a notion to go, someplace, anyplace, and they migrate in herds, dying by the thousands along the way.

Today's performance is bound to cast down normally sensible silver and gold investors, even those with a firm grasp of the market's realities -- that the Fed and government will keep borrowing, spending, creating new dollars and gutting its value, sending silver and gold higher -- and send them crawling off into their beds to sob themselves to sleep because they don't belong to the herd of migrating lemmings who trust their central bank and government to do the impossible.

Me, I don't want to be no lemming. Them nasty things have fleas and jump off cliffs.

Stocks have been withering under the pressure of the approaching government shutdown, but when it in fact arrived, they rose. Huh? Buy the rumor, sell the news, or vice versa. The event has taken place, the world didn't end, buy stocks again.

Dow rose 62.03 or 0.41% to 15,191.70. S&P500 added 13.45 or 0.8% to end at 1,695. These are not big gains but were big enough to pull the Dow back toward its 20 and 50 DMAs above, and the S&P500 above its 50 DMA. That well could mark the end of stocks' decline since mid-September, but they need to confirm that with a couple of days' higher trading.

A sharp down day for metals with higher stock prices meant that the Dow and Gold and Dow in Silver rose. Dow in gold moved up 3.57% to 11.813 oz (G$244.20). Dow in Silver gained 2.94% to 719.17 oz.

Those closes took both above their 50 day moving averages, so momentum is firmly up. Put this into perspective. DiG's June high was 12.51 oz; DiS's was 816.77 oz. After a sharp drop like August's, markets normally rebound, so there's nothing too surprising above this. And this correction does not change the reversal to a downtrend.

US Dollar index keeps grinding toward 80 and a rendezvous with destiny. Today it lost another 3.5 basis points (0.05%) for an 80.189 close. That smells a little bogus to me -- there's a whiff of Nice Government Men there, just a tiny sulfurous whiff. In the midst of the government shutdown, dollar has barley moved down a few basis points a day. Last two days the euro has barely moved, and closed today at $1.3527 -- despite a close through an upper channel line that should have sent it running up like a bunny. That suggests the European NGM have been busy helping the US NGM to prevent any sort of panic from the dollar into the euro. Yen paid no attention and closed at 102.11 cents/Y100, up 0.33% but merely lazily trending up,.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.