Gold Price Close Today : 1,309.70
Gold Price Close 27-Sep-13 : 1,338.40
Change : -28.70 or -2.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 21.705
Silver Price Close 27-Sep-13 : 21.783
Change : -0.078 or -0.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.341
Gold Silver Ratio 27-Sep-13 : 61.442
Change : -1.10 or -1.8%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01657
Silver Gold Ratio 27-Sep-13 : 0.01628
Change : 0.00030 or 1.8%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 237.90
Dow in Gold Dollars 27-Sep-13 : $ 235.67
Change : $2.23 or 0.9%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.508
Dow in Gold Ounces 27-Sep-13 : 11.400
Change : 0.11 or 0.9%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 694.43
Dow in Silver Ounces 27-Sep-13 : 700.47
Change : -6.04 or -0.9%
Dow Industrial : 15,072.58
Dow Industrial 27-Sep-13 : 15,258.24
Change : -185.66 or -1.2%
S&P 500 : 1,690.50
S&P 500 27-Sep-13 : 1,691.75
Change : -1.25 or -0.1%
US Dollar Index : 80.166
US Dollar Index 27-Sep-13 : 80.266
Change : -0.100 or -0.1%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,384.70
Platinum Price Close 27-Sep-13 : 1,414.90
Change : -30.20 or -2.1%
Palladium Price Close Today : 700.95
Palladium Price Close 27-Sep-13 : 730.80
Change : -29.85 or -4.1%
Y'all probably want to read this commentary carefully, because I've changed my mind about silver and GOLD PRICES, but I'll explain below. Also, I may be travelling all next week, so won't send out any commentaries. God willing, I'll return on Monday, 14 October.
The week took silver and gold prices, platinum and palladium lower, but in the same range they've been trading in. Dow lost 1.2% and wallowed with gunwales shipping water all week long. US dollar index only showed life today, and spent the rest of the week fainting like a sixteen year old girl in a wool dress at a ball without air conditioning.
The GOLD PRICE lost $7.70 today to close Comex at $1,309.70. Silver coughed up a tiny 3.4 cents to end at 2170.5c. Today, the picture cleared for me. From May through mid-August the gold price formed an upside down head and shoulders with a measured target at $1,550. Pushed out, but reached on $1,434. Now if you look there is a bigger upside-down head and shoulders, and gold is just completing the bottom of the right shoulder.
There's something else. This also appears to be the bottom of the first corrective wave of this rally, which is the lowest risk place to buy. How do we know they won't fall further? We never do, absolutely, but that HandS formation, as well as gold's behavior so far, argues it shouldn't drop further. It dropped down to the bottom of the shoulder sharply at $1,276.90, , and just as sharply reversed upward the next day. Last three days it has traded sideways, and yesterday fended off an attempt to break it that dragged it all the way to $1,302. Gold still recovered.
This interpretation would be fatally gainsaid by a close below $1,276.00. Otherwise, it will keep climbing to the neckline, now about $1,410. Once it crosses that neckline, gold will turn on the afterburner. Rule of thumb measurement yields a target of $1,675.
But I could be wrong.
LO! Now behold the SILVER PRICE! Similar upside-down HandS appeareth on that chart. Silver this week tested the bottom of the right shoulder, and traded, like gold, back up to the top boundary of its falling wedge -- as in "wedge that usually breaks out upside." If that is correct, silver (1) must not close below 2100c, and (2) should keep on rising toward that neckline about 2500c. A breakout there targets 3183c.
Like I said, the charts today changed my mind. I'm no longer looking for the possibility of another touch toward the June lows. I believe that was THE bottom. Note carefully, however, that gold and silver must not break $1,276 or 2100c.
My mind is changed. I am buying. Not waiting any longer.
O'Bama is playing the drama like a little boy pulling the wings off flies -- mean. His remark this week that there was a danger the US might default kicked stocks in the head. Hard to imagine he didn't do that a-purpose.
Dow lost more this week than the S&P500. Dow today gained 76.1 (0.51%) to 15,072.58. S&P500 picked up 11.84 (0.71%) to 1,690.50. Dow can probably fall to 14,850 still and theS&P500 to 1,660. The jubilating will become general whatever day the debt ceiling stand-off ends, and that should take it stocks to the final high.
One of the very strongest arguments that the silver and gold price have bottomed is the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Both bounced up today (stocks rose, metals fell minutely), but all against the backdrop of a well established downtrend. For the week the Dow in gold rose 0,9% to 11.508 oz (G$237.90 gold dollars). Dow in silver fell 0.9% to 694.43 oz.
Remember that a FALLING Dow/Gold or Dow/Silver means that metals are GAINING value against stocks, which has been the primary trend since 1999 and 2000. Forget ye not: The trend is your friend.
US Dollar Index behaved all week like a dog eating poisoned meat. Low close was 79. 763, close enough to the cliff at 79.50 to leave frost on its neck. Today it closed above 80, at 80.166, up 43.2 basis points or 0.56%. That rise might show no more than shorts closing out their profitable position for the week, so I wouldn't swing over any chasms using today's gain for a rope.
That dollar also might have dropped too low to suit the Nice Government Men of all three nations, so today the Euro and yen took tumbles. Yen lost 0.18% to 102.62, but the euro lost 0.5% to $1.3554. Euro left behind an ugly toppy patter in the last three days, a high rising day, a higher day still spiking up, then a sharp collapse today. Don't swing on that rope, either, unless you just LIKE broken bones.
Every adult with a brain has pulled out of the US economy, it seems, and we already knew that brains were rarer in Washington than snow cones in hell.
Y'all have a wonderful weekend. Go home, kiss your spouse and children, and thank God that the yankee government does not yet govern EVERY aspect of your life. Otherwise y'all would starve to death by Friday.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.