Gold Price Close Today : 1352.00
Change : -0.40 or -0.03%
Silver Price Close Today : 22.498
Change : -0.105 or -0.46%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.094
Change : 0.261 or 0.44%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01664
Change : -0.000073 or -0.44%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1470.10
Change : 17.60 or 1.21%
Palladium Price Close Today : 749.45
Change : 2.55 or 0.34%
S&P 500 : 1,762.11
Change : 2.34 or 0.13%
Dow In GOLD$ : $238.05
Change : $ 0.05 or 0.02%
Dow in GOLD oz : 11.515
Change : 0.002 or 0.02%
Dow in SILVER oz : 692.01
Change : 3.15 or 0.46%
Dow Industrial : 15,568.93
Change : -1.35 or -0.01%
US Dollar Index : 79.343
Change : 0.142 or 0.18%
Today both silver and GOLD PRICES stalled. Gold lost 40 cents to $1,352 while silver lost 10.5 cents and ended 2249.8c.
Y'all know always to buy a rising market only, right? That must be correct because that's what everybody does, only they wait until the market has already made a huge rise to do it. It's human nature. They feel comfortable in a crowd, like lemmings.
The folks who make the money -- the ones who look for oversold markets that offer real value -- are vanishingly scarce. Human nature.
WHEREFORE, now while silver and GOLD PRICES, it seems, have finished their corrections, nobody wants to buy, so they will wait until gold has climbed from $1,350 to $1,900 so they can be "sure" it's going to rise.
One other item: most likely, the Fed won't taper. Not at all. None. Oh, I know they are rattling their tongues (their sharpest weapon) about tapering again. Fed took the Adjusted Monetary Base, the fuel for inflation, from about $850 billion in August 2008 to about $3.5 trillion lately. I am waiting for somebody to explain to me how, facing the present deflationary and depressionary headwinds, the fed will WITHDRAW high-powered money from the economy at all, or even taper off its monthly purchases (new money creation at an $85 bn monthly rate or $1.02 trillion yearly). More likely, in fact, is that the Fed INCREASES money creation, because they are now wed to the notion that money creation alone will fix the depression.
And while that inflation causes both poor and great to suffer, it drives silver and gold higher and higher. And it's coming. It's already baked into the cake, at least, that's what Adjusted Monetary Base says.
Last week silver and gold prices performed just about perfectly. They jumped through two resistance levels on Monday, backed off Tuesday to the highest resistance, and Wednesday jumped to higher levels still. Gold jumped over its 50 day moving average (DMA), as did silver. Only silver's weakness Friday marred the week.
Let's realistically face the outcomes here. First, there remaineth the possibility of one further leg down, taking gold toward $1,200 and the SILVER PRICE toward $18. Seasonally both are moving out of the time when seasonality makes new lows likely. But until gold closes above its 200 DMA (now $1,432) and last peak $1,434, this possibility remains alive. Should it occur, it will mark a solid double bottom with the June low.
Second outcome is that I really am seeing upside-down head and shoulders patterns on both charts, which really are targeting $1,675 and $31.83. But first like all good runners, silver and gold must make it over the hurdles without tripping. Nearby silver must beat the 2300c mark that whipped it last week, although it has already better the last peak (2252c). I am most anxious to witness a close above 2355, then over 2512c, the August peak and the neckline. In between lies silver's 200 DMA at 2427c.
In the same rally outcome, the gold price needs to rise above $1,376, then $1,400. Big leap comes at the August high of $1,434 and the 200 DMA ($1,432.77). The really clench it all down hurdle is $1,550, where gold broke down in April. However, technically momentum turns upward when gold closes over the 200 DMA.
Buttressing the case for higher gold and silver are the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. While stocks are making new highs, both indicators are falling, revealing the relative strength in metals. Dow in gold today closed roughly unchanged at 11.515 oz (G$238.05 gold dollars). Dow in Silver rose 3.15 oz (0.46%) to 692.01 oz. Trend favors metals, 'cause it's down.
Stocks continue to levitate, but with a few bluebirds of unhappiness flying by. Dow Theory says that a new high in the Transports or Industrials needs to be confirmed by a new high in the other. Dow Industrials has stubbornly resisted making a new high while the S&P500 made daily new highs. The Dow Transports made 4 new highs in the last 5 days, while the Dow Industrials have not. Maybe the Industrials will catch up?
Dow fell 1.35 (0.01%) to 15,568.93 while the S&P500 rose 2.34 (0.13%) to a new high at 1,762.11. S&P500 has broken out above the upper trend line but the Dow laggeth onward. Meanwhile, margin debt has reached levels not seen since the 2007 peak. Does that mean anything?
US dollar index remains floating above 79, refusing to follow through on its breakdown. Closed today at 79.343, up 14.2 basis points (0.18%). Euro has risen to $1.3785, higher than last week but down 0.13% today. It's only edging forward. Yen ended today at 102.38, down 0.30% and little changed in the last week.
Friends, Volume 2 of At Home In Dogwood Mudhole (Best Thing We Ever Did) is now available for preorder at www.dogwoodmudhole.com. It went to the printer today and we estimate it will be ready to ship the first week in December, in time for Christmas.
I must be crazy generous, but if you will use the discount code HOGWILD I will give you free shipping to US addresses, up to $6 (enough for 2 copies). Offer expires Sunday, 30 November 2013. Also, the PDF version will be available for sale and immediate download tomorrow, with Kindle and ePub editions coming in a few weeks.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.>