Friday, November 01, 2013

Both Silver and Gold Prices Closed Lower this Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,313.10
Gold Price Close 25-Oct-13 : 1,352.40
Change : -39.30 or -2.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 2180.4
Silver Price Close 25-Oct-13 : 2260.3
Change : -79.90 or -3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.223
Gold Silver Ratio 25-Oct-13 : 59.833
Change : 0.39 or 0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01660
Silver Gold Ratio 25-Oct-13 : 0.01671
Change : -0.00011 or -0.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 245.83
Dow in Gold Dollars 25-Oct-13 : $ 238.00
Change : $7.84 or 3.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.892
Dow in Gold Ounces 25-Oct-13 : 11.513
Change : 0.38 or 3.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 716.18
Dow in Silver Ounces 25-Oct-13 : 688.86
Change : 27.32 or 4.0%

Dow Industrial : 15,615.55
Dow Industrial 25-Oct-13 : 15,570.28
Change : 45.27 or 0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,761.64
S&P 500 25-Oct-13 : 1,759.77
Change : 1.87 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 80.723
US Dollar Index 25-Oct-13 : 79.260
Change : 1.463 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,449.40
Platinum Price Close 25-Oct-13 : 1,451.50
Change : -2.10 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 737.70
Palladium Price Close 25-Oct-13 : 741.70
Change : -4.00 or -0.5%

Sorry about my absence yesterday. Our power went out at my office and at home. No power, no computer, no commentary. For those of y'all who follow end of month pricing, here 'tis: GOLD PRICE, 1323.6; Silver 2183.2; Platinum 1,445.9; Palladium 736.25; US dollar index, 80.2; Dow Industrials, 15,545.75; S&P500 1,756.54.

This week demolished all the work silver and GOLD PRICES had done in the previous two weeks. The SILVER PRICE lost 3.5% for the week, and 4.9% (111.4c) yesterday. The same concerted selling attack took gold down 1.9% ($25.40). Stocks peaked and began descending, although for the week the Dow gained 0.3% and the S&P500 .01%. Oddly enough, the white metals hardly moved week to week, although they, too, had risen quite a bit this week. Dollar index was the show, up 1.8% and a huge 146 basis points.

Yesterday silver dropped off a cliff, down 111.4 cents (4.9%) to 2183.2 and where we started. Gold lost 1.9% ($25.40) to $1,323.60. Today silver was quiet, losing only 2.8 cents to 2180.4c. Gold lost another 0.8% or $10.50 to land at $1,313.10.

Silver has now lost 53% of its preceding gain. It pushed for the high before last at 2344c, but stopped at 2309.c. Yesterday it closed below its 20 DMA (2208c) and of course its 50 DMA, 2247c. Unless silver can rebound quickly and close over that last high at 2309c, it will at least return to the uptrend line from the June low, now at 2100c. Unless silver shows more strength, seems headed for a retest of the June low, at a higher or lower level. That makes that 2100c level crucial.

The gold price has given up 50% of its preceding rise, and failed to better the last high at $1,375.40, and closed beneath its 50 DMA ($1,339.68) and 20 DMA ($1,317.15). Is it real, or Memorex? Who knows, but $1,300 again becomes the line that must be held. Remember in October when gold rocketed off its $1,251 low it blasted through resistance at $1,280, $1,300, and $1,320. Thus the $1,300 point becomes crucial. Gold meets its July uptrend line about $1,260, so that must hold.

It's odd, but yearly silver and gold price lows almost NEVER strike in October or December. About 20% of the time they come in November. Seems we can look for some low this month to confirm that June low.

Well, I'm plumb wordless. Federal Reserve creates roughly $2-1/2 trillion, and nothing happens. That's the story of the last 5 years, boosting Adjusted Monetary Reserves up 4.11 times. The various splurges of QE raise the stock market because new money runs first to the financial markets. Although the economy needs a mirror under its nostrils still to make sure it's breathing, stock market keeps rising. Meanwhile, silver and gold continue in a two year correction.

A friend of mine used to point to events and ask, "Is it real, or Memorex?" Is it real, or just a Potemkin government set up? Example: FOMC announces it will continue depreciating the dollar by creating $85 billion of new money a month. You would guess, if your brain is working, that would send the US dollar down, all the more so since the interest rate is so low. You would be on the wrong side of that market, because dollar index gained 110 basis points in the last three days. Real, or Memorex?

Contrary to some "experts," markets are IRrational. People don't buy value, they buy a rising market. They have the attention span of a gnat, and they are constantly bombarded by feel-good propaganda promising that "Every day in every way things are getting better and better." It takes time for fundamentals -- like money already pushed into the inflation pipeline -- to work its effect. But over time, Reality has a way of coming down on your head with a giant fly-swatter. So we patiently wait.

US dollar index had reached a low last Friday at 79.26, and bounced up off 79 -- straight up, above the downtrend line. Closed today 80.723, up 0.62% today alone.

The yen was not happy about this, losing 0.39% to 101.28 cents/Y100 today. But the euro took a brickbat to the forehead. It was just waiting to collapse. Wednesday it dropped sharply, then gapped down the next day beneath its 20 DA. Gapped down again today, fractured the uptrend line, and closed beneath its 50 DMA ($1.3491) to roost at $1.3488, down a modest 0.71% on the day. Back in September the euro broke out of its trading channel but for a long time refused to make good on it. Traded higher on the Debt Farce, but mostly with all the enthusiasm of a condemned man for a rope factory. Closed today back within that old channel line, wiping out a month and a half's gains.

All this whispers that the dollar will rally at least to 81, maybe even to the 200 DMA at 81.77 before it slows down. That's not the best news for silver and gold, since it raises a headwind against their progress.

Stocks probably ran out of gas this week, notwithstanding today's little gains. They were way overbought. Stocks bear market rally hasn't ended yet. May run into first quarter 2014.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver are zig-zagging up and down, up today of course. However, the establish downtrend remains intact.

Today is All Saints or All Hallows Day. Y'all were so distracted by Hallowe'en (All Hallows Eve) y'all probably forgot that.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.