Friday, November 22, 2013

Gold Price Bull Market Has Not Ended — Best is Yet to Come

Gold Price Close Today : 1,244.10
Gold Price Close 15-Nov-13 : 1,287.80
Change : -43.70 or -3.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.862
Silver Price Close 15-Nov-13 : 20.717
Change : -0.855 or -4.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.637
Gold Silver Ratio 15-Nov-13 : 62.162
Change : 0.48 or 0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01596
Silver Gold Ratio 15-Nov-13 : 0.01609
Change : -0.00012 or -0.8%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 266.93
Dow in Gold Dollars 15-Nov-13 : $ 256.22
Change : $10.71 or 4.2%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.913
Dow in Gold Ounces 15-Nov-13 : 12.395
Change : 0.52 or 4.2%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 808.82
Dow in Silver Ounces 15-Nov-13 : 770.46
Change : 38.36 or 5.0%

Dow Industrial : 16,064.77
Dow Industrial 15-Nov-13 : 15,961.70
Change : 85.48 or 0.5%

S&P 500 : 1,804.76
S&P 500 15-Nov-13 : 1,798.18
Change : 7.56 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.696
US Dollar Index 15-Nov-13 : 80.818
Change : -0.122 or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,380.90
Platinum Price Close 15-Nov-13 : 1,437.10
Change : -56.20 or -3.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 714.05
Palladium Price Close 15-Nov-13 : 732.30
Change : -18.25 or -2.5%

The GOLD PRICE added a momentous fifty cents to close Comex at $1,244.10. Silver lost 7.2 cents and closed 1986.2c. Who-ray.

Today's ranges were ever narrower and deader than yesterday's. Gold peaked at $1,248.30 and troughed at $1,242.30, silver 2005c to 1981c.

Most positive sign in silver and GOLD PRICES are what appears to be a spike peak in the GOLD/SILVER RATIO (ratio rises when silver and gold are falling, falls when they are rallying). Yesterday's break was not confirmed as a key reversal, but the ratio didn't go far -- 62.637, up 0.4%. It should retreat from here.

Then there are the Bollinger Bands for the silver and gold price. Both metals are scuttling along the bottom band. At the June low a puncture through the bottom Bollinger Band marked the bottom. Bollinger bands are volatility bands above and below a moving average. The bands widen and narrow with volatility.

Both silver and gold prices are dithering around below or at support lines. That usually doesn't promise great thing. However, the SILVER PRICE lost 4.1% this week and gold lost 3.4%. Gold has now given back about 75% of its rise from last June's low. And even if silver and gold prices catch here, what's to raise them? The stock market is sucking all the money in the world into itself. No help for it but to patiently wait for the cracks to appear in Bernanke's playhouse and the public mood to change.

But change it will. Silver and gold price bull market has not ended yet. The best is yet to come, croakers, whiners, and doomsayers notwithstanding.

Every day it gets funnier and funnier. On Wednesday the ECB Head Mario Draghi suggested the ECB might pay NEGATIVE interest rates, that is, charge you to hold your money. Not much to anybody's surprise, the euro tanked on that news. Draghi did a supersonic crabwalk then to announce he was just kidding about the negative interest rates. What's a central banker to do when his own currency keeps appreciating against his biggest competitor's? How's he gonna beggar his neighbor?

So the euro rose today on news of strong German economic data. If you were talking to anyone with an attention span greater than a gnat, which would leave out currency traders, you would ask what that means for Spain, Italy, Greece, and the other European countries mired in depression. No matter, the gnats abound.

Euro rose 0.53% to $1.3554 while the US dollar stumbled 31.3 basis points (0.4%) to 80.696. That's a long drop from critical 81 support/resistance and nearly to the 80.68 20 day moving average. How about it, dollar index? You going up or down? You appear to be rolling over to the downside. Maybe this is merely the dollar reacting after a jump, but maybe not. If not, what is the dollar expecting? What's it worried about?

Meanwhile the yen fell another 0.11% today to 98.74 cents/Y100. If it stoppeth not here, 'twill sink to 96.5 cents.

Stocks appear to be unstoppable. Dow made a new high today, rising 54.78 or 0.34% to 16,064.77. S&P500 joined in with its own new high, up 8.91 (0.5%) to 1,804.76. Today's higher levels don't altogether remove my doubts expressed yesterday about a coming correction, but I just have to put my hand on my mouth. When a market enters a mania like this, nobody can tell you where it will stop.

Dow in Gold rose 0.29% today to a new high at 12.93 oz (against June's 12.514. Dow in Silver rose to 810.74, not quite to the June 816.77 oz high. Until these indicators turn down again, stocks have not finished their move. It is possible, however, that gold and silver might bottom without that turndown, if they merely trade sideways. Anyway, it's the most reliable indicator I know, so I can't buck it. I'm a fool, but not that big a fool.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.