Gold Price Close Today : 1243.50
Change : -14.40 or -1.14%
Silver Price Close Today : 19.928
Change : 0.122 or -0.61%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.400
Change : -0.339 or -0.54%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01603
Change : 0.000086 or 0.54%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1389.90
Change : -7.90 or -0.57%
Palladium Price Close Today : 713.10
Change : -0.55 or -0.08%
S&P 500 : 1,795.85
Change : 14.48 or 0.81%
Dow In GOLD$ : $266.15
Change : $ 4.84 or 1.85%
Dow in GOLD oz : 12.875
Change : 0.234 or 1.85%
Dow in SILVER oz : 803.39
Change : 10.33 or 1.30%
Dow Industrial : 16,009.99
Change : 109.17 or 0.69%
US Dollar Index : 81.080
Change : 0.030 or 0.04%
A hopeful sign I see for the silver and GOLD PRICES is the GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart that left a spike up behind yesterday from its 62.738 high, then fell today to end at 62.400, it appears to be a definite reversal, wanting only one more confirmation.
When I quote the gold price low to y'all you're going to think it dropped a lot today, but it's only the drop from yesterday's close at $1,257.90. Fell $14.40 to $1,243.50 on Comex, but most of that fall happened yesterday after the Comex close, and it's trading about where it was this time yesterday. 'Twas an extraordinarily quiet day bounded by a low at $1,235.80 and a high at $1,243.60.
I went back and checked the indicators at the June gold price low. The low occurred 27 June, but the MACD didn't turn up until 8 July. Didn't climb through the 20 DMA till 11 July. Rate of change didn't go positive until 12 July. Gold Silver Ratio peaked on 26 June, reversed on 27, and gapped down on 28.
Your point? Simply that watching gold on 27 June 2013 gave you no clue that it had turned up, OTHER THAN a key reversal beginning that day, confirmed the next day. Other indicators were all thumbs down.
The SILVER PRICE lost 12.2 cents today for a 1992.8c close. Range was narrow, from 2005c to 1970c. However, if you look at an End of Day chart and not Comex, the first half of a key reversal -- break into new low ground with a higher close for the day. Silver must confirm that with a higher close tomorrow.
The GOLD PRICE, on the other hand, offers no such comfort. End of day chart shows it making a new low for the day, but closing about where it ended yesterday. Speaks with forked tongue.
So far, no big waterfall other than yesterday. Longer silver and gold prices hang here without breaking down, less the likelihood they will break down. However, no positive sign of turnaround shows yet, other than the Gold Silver Ratio and silver's fist half Key Reversal. Both those need still to be confirmed.
We wait. We watch. We are patient, know that a Really Big Inflator is taking the tiller from Bernanke, raising giant waves of new money for silver and gold to surf on.
The Dow made a new high today and closed above 16,000, specifically it rose 109.17 (0.69%) to 16,009.99. Wait, I'll have more to say about that. S&P500 rose 14.48 or 0.81%, but made not a new high with its 1,795.85 close.
Because I have been suckered more times than Carter's has pills by markets that appear to recover, I offer these observations.
(1) Markets often top with Two highs about the same place.
(2) Trickier still, the second top is often higher than the first.
(3) As anvils do not spontaneously levitate into the stratosphere, so markets do not forever get more and more overbought. Markets making new highs day after day lie far closer to the end of their move than an extension.
(4) Dow actually made a lower intraday high today at 16,016.04, than it did on the last new all time high, namely, 16,030.38. Picture painted on the chart is lower highs and lower lows -- beginning a downtrend? S&P500 rose today, but to a lower high than the intraday high when the Dow made its last high and other indices refused to confirm.
(5) Despite all that, markets can keep becoming more overbought than you have money to put up shorting them, so stocks can go higher still.
Dow in Gold rose 0.71% today to 12.89 oz (G$266.46), a new high since June's 12.514 oz. Dow in silver rose 0.11% to 802.3 oz, still below the June 816.77 high.
Ten year note yield fell today to 2.784%, probably on news that Big Janet is coming and will continue Big Ben's Zero Interest Rate Policy. However, interest rates broke out to the upside in June, corrected September - October, and now are rising again,. The bond market smells a rat, and that rat might be rising interest rates that overcome the Fed's ZIRP (Egad! Where DO they get these acronyms?)
US Dollar Index rose a little today, 0.4% to 81.08, three basis points, but is trading below 81 now. Trying to break out skyward. Maybe this turkey can fly.
Yen gave up today with a gap down, losing 1.14% to end on its lows at 98.85 and gasping for breath. Looks to be shooting for 96.4 cents per 100 yen or less.
The euro, on the other hand, rose 0,33% to $1.3483. I keep asking myself why it might rise, but on the chart I can find no reason.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.