Gold Price Close Today : 1240.00
Change : 1.90 or 0.15%
Silver Price Close Today : 20.025
Change : -0.078 or -0.39%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.923
Change : 0.335 or 0.54%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01615
Change : -0.000088 or -0.54%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1430.00
Change : 2.90 or 0.20%
Palladium Price Close Today : 743.00
Change : -0.10 or -0.01%
S&P 500 : 1,845.89
Change : -7.49 or -0.40%
Dow In GOLD$ : $273.68
Change : $ -1.50 or -0.55%
Dow in GOLD oz : 13.240
Change : -0.073 or -0.55%
Dow in SILVER oz : 819.83
Change : -0.05 or -0.01%
Dow Industrial : 16,417.01
Change : -64.93 or -0.39%
US Dollar Index : 80.170
Change : -0.330 or -0.41%
Metals gainsaid each other today, silver down, the GOLD PRICE up. Gold chiseled out a tiny $1.90 gain to close at a portentous $1,240. Silver lost 7.8 cents for a Comex close at 2002.5 cents.
The RSI and MACD continue to smile on the gold price, but it is wrestling hard to climb through that fence at the 50 DMA (1,243.07) -- the fence holding it out of an uptrend.
The GOLD PRICE may be tracing out an upside-down head and shoulders with the shoulder's top about $1,210. To preserve that pattern, gold must not close below $1,210, and I'd prefer it not close below the 20 DMA at $1,222.13.
The SILVER PRICE clings tenaciously to the uptrend begun with the second December low at 1872c. Traded as low as 1997c today, and as high as 2025c, but held on above that uptrend line. Rests only cents below the 50 DMA at 2007c.
All this feels like one of those silent movie cliff-hangers, but I believe this time it will resolve in favor of silver and gold. A close tomorrow above last Friday's close at $1,246.70 would give gold a four week winning streak
Adolf Hitler wrote, "In the primitive simplicity of their minds [the broad masses of a nation] more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously." This is called the Big Lie Technique.
In the news today Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended quantitative easing, saying it has helped the economy and shows no immediate sign of creating a bubble in assets.
These two items above are not related. No, sir. No way. Unh-unh. Nope.
Sorry I didn't send a commentary yesterday, but I took a day off and spent it with my wife, Susan. As it turned out, nothing shook the earth yesterday.
Yesterday stocks were strong, and y'all might have been thinking I am a moron for talking about stocks trending down. You might be right, too, but this is a good time to discuss corrective B waves.
When markets correct, they often trace three waves, A-down, B-up, and C-down (of course this works for declining markets as well, just reversed). Trick is that the B-wave is often strong as a garlic milkshake, and will fool you into believing there's no correction at all. Sometimes the B-wave even makes a higher high than the last peak. Then the bottom falls out. This B-wave strength shows especially in markets that have been very strong.
So I look at stocks, I see that yesterday the S&P500 made a marginal new intraday high (1,850.84 against 31 December's 1,849.44). Dow didn't do that well. Today, both sank again, the Dow by 64.93 (0.39%) to 16,417.01 and the S&P500 by 7.49 (0.13%) to 1,845.89.
Now the small downtrend we've seen since 31 December may have amounted to only a short correction. Then again, it might be the start of something bigger. RSI still trendeth down, MACD still flasheth a sell signal, both indices are at their short term trend lines. Unless stocks can advance tomorrow, substantially and not marginally above the last highs, lower prices loom.
Uncertain trumpet calls blew from the Dow measured in metals today. Dow in silver rose 0.13% to 817.38 oz, bouncing up off the 50 DMA (803.15 oz). Dow in Gold turned down, 0.47% to 13.22 oz (G$273.28), but hasn't yet reached its 50 DMA (12.96 oz). Both have been trending down since 31 December, and both are about to break down out of their uptrending channel.
US DOLLAR INDEX rose strongly yesterday, but fell 11 basis points today (0.14%) to 81.01. Yet it has lifted off those 20 and 50 day moving averages (80.73 and 80.68). Uptrend vindicated.
The euro, stitched together Franken-currency, rose 0.1% to $1.3618, but playeth footsie still with its downtrend lines and 50 DMA. Will succumb to gravity. Yen rose 0.22% to 95.82 cents/Y100, above its 20 DMA and trying to trend upward.
Ten year treasury yield fell through its uptrend line five days ago, but has now bounced off its 50 DMA. Larger uptrend remains in force, glacial though it may be.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.