Friday, January 17, 2014

The Gold Price Flew Up $11.70 to End the Week at $1,251.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,251.70
Gold Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 1,246.70
Change : 5.00 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.267
Silver Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 20.201
Change : 0.066 or 0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.760
Gold Silver Ratio 10-Jan-14 : 61.715
Change : 0.046 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01619
Silver Gold Ratio 10-Jan-14 : 0.01620
Change : -0.00001 or -0.1%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 271.81
Dow in Gold Dollars 10-Jan-14 : $ 272.55
Change : -0.73 or -0.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.149
Dow in Gold Ounces 10-Jan-14 : 13.184
Change : -0.04 or -0.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 812.09
Dow in Silver Ounces 10-Jan-14 : 813.68
Change : -1.59 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial : 16,458.56
Dow Industrial 10-Jan-14 : 16,437.05
Change : 21.51 or 0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,838.69
S&P 500 10-Jan-14 : 1,842.37
Change : -3.68 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 81.370
US Dollar Index 10-Jan-14 : 80.750
Change : 0.62 or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,452.60
Platinum Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 1,434.70
Change : 17.90 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.65
Palladium Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 745.15
Change : 2.50 or 0.3%

The GOLD PRICE flew up $11.70 to end at $1,251.70. Silver today mounted 24.2 cents to end at 2026.7 cents.

Ahh, the positives! Gold's fourth weekly higher close. The gold price above the 50 DMA ($1,241.86). Gold at the neckline for what promises to be an upside down head and shoulders. Gold within shooting distance of the December $1,267.50 high. Gold, with a positive MACD in positive alignment, a positive RSI, positive full stochastics, and positive rate of change. All I could ask more is gold above $1,550 -- but wait. Be patient.

Meanwhile the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which falls during gold and silver rallies, has been inching downward since Mid December. Today it closed below its 50 DMA and right at the 20 and 200 DMAs, trying to fall out of bed.

Wait, wait, wait! Did I neglect to mention that all three gold stock indices today burst their bonds and soared skyward? Yea, the HUI, GDX, and XAU in tandem.

Now silver. the SILVER PRICE, up three of the last four weeks. On the weekly chart dancing with its downtrend line from 2011 [sic]. On the daily chart in an uptrend from the December low at 1872c. Next barrier is 2050 cents to break out of this congestion that has reigned below that number since mid-November. Then silver must o'erleap 2100c. Yet what progress already! It stands above its 20 and 50 DMAs (1985c and 2004dc). I don't want to bore y'all like some proud papa with pictures of a new baby, so I won't list all the positive indicators. There are lots of 'em.

The silver and GOLD PRICE picture continues to improve steadily. And all this unashamed progress today came in the teeth of a boldly stronger dollar. I have been buying little by little since the lows, and will buy more when silver crosses 2100c and gold crosses $1,267.50.

Only fly in this ointment is physical gold coin premiums, which are barely flabby. Not bad, just a mite soft. Silver premiums are holding up well.

All this is the very best set-up we have seen in a year, but must be confirmed by higher prices and continued upward progress.

Well, this IS interesting. This was a down week for the S&P500 but not for the Dow. It was the fourth UP week in a row for gold, and 3 out of 4 for silver. White metals rose this week, too, while the dollar finally made up its mind to climb.

Stocks remain bewildered and squabbling with each other. All indices but the Dow fell today (the "Invisible Hand" of the NGM, painting the tape with the most widely followed index? Real or Memorex?). Dow inched up 41.55 (0.25%) to 16,458.56 but the S&P500 said "No" and stumbled 7.2 (0.4%) to 1,838.69.

Maybe I'm prejudiced -- everybody is -- but this looks weak. Then add a falling Relative Strength Index and the MACD on a sell signal. Rate of change is below zero (negative) for both indices. All these witness that momentum -- the line of least resistance -- is down. Still, I will admit this remains somewhat equivocal. Stocks might jump Monday to new highs, nixing my interpretation. But both are poised to fall through their 20 DMAs, and with all those other negatives weighing them down, I expect Monday to be a rough day for stock bulls.

I watch the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver because sometimes turns in these precede outright turns in gold or silver, or coincide and confirm. Both these indicators promise gloom for stock investors.

Dow in Gold has moved from the high side of its trading channel at 13.80 oz (G$285.27 gold dollars), below its 20 DMA, and to the low side of its trading channel. Today's 13.13 oz (G$271.42) close hangs close above the channel's bottom boundary and the 50 DMA at 12.99 oz (G$268.53). All indicators point toward the earth's magma core.

Dow in Silver presents a like picture. Dropped today 0.86% to 810.37 oz, hanging barely above the 50 DMA at 804.97.

The goofy, sorry US DOLLAR INDEX finally came out swinging today. It scampered up 36 basis points (0.44%) to end at 81.37, highest close since November. 200 DMA lieth near above at 81.58. When it punches through that, 'twill run for 83.

The perky dollar hit the euro like a cat-o-nine-tails, flogging it out of the trading channel and down below its 50 DMA ($1.3613. Closed down 0.57% at $1.3540. First target is about $1.3341, the 200 DMA.

Japanese yen kept its head timidly low today, rising 0.05% -- if that can be called a "rise" -- to 95.86 cents per 100 yen. It has been thoroughly rebuked and chastened for its audacious rise last week.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.