Monday, January 06, 2014

The Gold Price Lost 60 Cents Closing at $1,237

Gold Price Close Today : 1237.80
Change : -0.60 or -0.05%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.077
Change : -0.105 or -0.52%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.653
Change : 0.291 or 0.47%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01622
Change : -0.000077 or -0.47%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1413.70
Change : 2.20 or 0.16%

Palladium Price Close Today : 737.60
Change : 7.30 or 1.00%

S&P 500 : 1,826.77
Change : -4.60 or -0.25%

Dow In GOLD$ : $274.31
Change : $ (0.62) or -0.22%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.270
Change : -0.030 or -0.22%

Dow in SILVER oz : 818.11
Change : 2.03 or 0.25%

Dow Industrial : 16,425.10
Change : -44.89 or -0.27%

US Dollar Index : 80.780
Change : -0.260 or -0.32%

Something very odd and very encouraging happened for the GOLD PRICE today -- "Somebody" early this morning dumped one huge 11,660 contract sell order (1,166,000 ounces) on the futures market, BUT IT FAILED TO BREAK THE PRICE. Gold dropped $30 an ounce in less than a minute, but instead of triggering an avalanche of new selling, gold quickly rebounded. The trick "somebody" has been playing since since April no longer works.

What does that say? The GOLD PRICE has been shaken out of the weak hands, and loads of sellers are ready to buy at lower prices. That event helps confirm my working assumption that silver and gold prices bottomed on 31 December, and have completed the 2011-2013 correction by posting double bottoms with the June lows.

That said, bear in mind we need to witness confirmations.

It's sort of like that wonderful girl you have your eye on. It's progress when she accepts your offer of a date, but confirmation when she accepts your proposal of marriage.

But at Comex close the gold price had lost 60 cents to $1,237.80 and the SILVER PRICE 10.5 cents to 2007.7c. Considering the pounding gold took, that's not bad.

Now look: gold and silver both remain ABOVE their 20 day moving average, so short term momentum is upward. Both are within spitting distance of their 50 DMAs ($1,258.65 and 2044c). All other indicators are signaling higher prices, and the 12 day rate of change just today turned up.

What about Unconfirming? Well, a gold price close below $1,195 or silver close below 1935 cents would gainsay my rally assumption. Even aware of that, I'm riding this wave.

Stocks continued to trip and stumble today, tracing out a reversal. All indices fell, and the Dow fell 44.89 (0.27%) to 16,425.10. It tried to rally out of the gate, but fell sharply before noon. Traded underwater until about 2:00, then tried to rally, peaked its head above the surface of unchanged, then sank again. Very weak.

S&P500 lost 0.25% (4.6 points) to end at 1,826.77. Clearly a correction is brewing -- or better, has begun.

Dow in Gold and Dow in silver are yea-saying both lower stock prices and higher prices for metals. Even with gold lower at Comex close, the Digs lost 0.25% to 13.28 oz (G$274.52 gold dollars). The 20 day moving average at 13.25 can feel the DiG's breath on its neck.

Dow in silver lost 0.22% to 814.74 oz today, and fell below its 20 DMA (818.8). Both indicators remain above their 50 DMA (783.55 oz and 12.71 oz), which roughly marks their trading channel's lower boundary line. To make it clearer, a fall through that level will be a lot like diving with an anvil tied to your ankle.

By the way, the gold mining stock indices are still encouraging. GDX, XAU, and HUI all rose slightly today. All have turned up, but all need to confirm by rallying higher.

US dollar index today swooned, whether on bad economic numbers from the ISM report, or Janet Yellen's confirmation as the new head criminal at the Fed, no one can say. If we lived in a rational world, the appointment of a mouth-foaming inflationist as head currency guardian would have people selling dollars like the Russians were on Main Street. Anyhow, the dollar lost 26 basis points (0.32%) to 80.78, turning back to kiss the downtrend line good-bye. Technically, dollar index remaineth "broken-out" above its downtrend.

Euro made time at the dollar's expense, up 0.35% to $1.3636. However, buying the euro would be like taking a job carrying fruit jars of nitroglycerin by hand riding a goat up Pike's Peak -- 'tain't no job with a future. Euro has already made a double peak, leaving behind an island reversal on this last one, and when it clears $1.3575, it will dive like one of those Mexicans off the cliffs at Acapulco. Only problem will be -- whoops! -- somebody drained the ocean.

Yen seems to have turned up today, breaking through the downtrend line. Added 0.66% to end at 95.99 cents/Y100. Faced with a choice of buying the yen or a dose of the flu, I reckon I wouldn't have to ponder long to choose the flu.

I have Thirteen (13) one hundred ounce silver bars, Engelhard, Johnson-Matthey, or equal, that I will sell in lots of four (4), Five (5) or one lot of Thirteen at $2120 each, plus $35/order shipping. That's about $50 a bar below usual retail. First emails to [email protected] buy 'em. Remember that all sales are final, whether the market rises or falls tomorrow. You'll come nearer getting a fill if you say "13 or fewer." If you order 'em, you bought 'em. Include your name and phone number in your email. I don't read minds since I lost mine. No re-orders at that price. Mention in the email.

Today is the celebration of the Epiphany, the manifestation of Christ to the Gentiles embodied in the visit of the Three Magi to the infant Jesus. It is also the 12th and final day of Christmas.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.