Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Silver and Gold Prices Have Posted Their Lows with Gold Closing at $1,305.50

9-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,305.50-3.20-0.24%
Silver Price, $/oz19.76-0.29-1.43%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.0850.7871.20%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0151-0.0002-1.19%
Platinum Price1,437.00-2.80-0.19%
Palladium Price782.806.700.86%
S&P 5001,872.1820.221.09%
Dow in GOLD $s260.273.501.36%
Dow in GOLD oz12.590.171.36%
Dow in SILVER oz832.0520.952.58%
US Dollar Index79.58-0.25-0.31%

Yes, yes, markets and the FOMC conspired to leave me with egg all over my face. Or did they? Silver fell 28.7 cents to 1975.5c while the GOLD PRICE lost $3.20 to $1,305.50. But isn't that the durndest thing: gold's now trading in the aftermarket at $1,314.10 (as I expected) and silver at 1991c. Can anybody spell paint-the-tape?

How did it play out? About New York opening somebody sold lots of gold, driving the price down form $1,308 to $1,301. Traded sideways from 9:00 to 3:00 p.m, gapped down from $1,305 for an instant, then gapped above $1,306 and shot clean to $1,315. Then it backed off but held above $1,310.


GOLD/SILVER RATIO today rose to 66.085, not a helpful sign, and silver persists in lagging behind and not closing above 2015c. Ahh, but today silver's low at 1960c painted a double bottom for the move with an earlier low at 1958c. In fact, silver has four times defended this level. That could be good OR bad.

Still I am persuaded that silver and GOLD PRICES have posted their lows and, once silver gets into gear, will rise. Closes below $1,277 or $1,960 would gainsay that interpretation and open the door to lower prices.

On the remote chance I might be right, y'all ought to buy a little silver and gold.

Today near Pittsburgh a high school student with two kitchen knives stabbed 20 other kids before the principal tackled him. This brings to mind a number of questions: How long before the Obama administration acts to outlaw kitchen knives and end tragic incidents like this forever? Why do people need those assault-style butcher knives in their kitchens anyway, since an ordinary dull table knife will cut everything but meat? Why do people need more than one sharp knife to run a kitchen? Why do knife-nuts need so many knives? Are serrated knives EVER safe?

It also raises another line of questioning: Were there no chairs in that high school that someone could pick up and throw at the knifer? Were the students so trained to call 911 that nobody knew how to protect himself? Was the principal the only person trained to tackle knifers?

Finally the third set of questions, along the "Is it real or Memorex?" line. Did this really happen? If it did really happen, what sort of psychotropic drugs was the knifer taking? What other important thing happening in the world did this event distract our attention from?

If all this weren't crazy enough, ponder this: Greece, yes, the Greek government which is bankrupt from now until, oh, about a.d. 2255, is about to re-enter the bond market to sell 2.5 billion Euros worth of bonds. Top that: they are looking for an interest rate of 5.3% or less. Mean as I sound, I have to say it: any loony who buys those bonds deserves what he will get, which will be another default. The market is not benevolent.

Minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released today and showed that all the members agreed to jettison any objective standards for action. That is, they would keep on tapering and suppressing interest rates until, well, I reckon until it FEELS good. Why this should make stock investors more optimistic -- to learn that the pilot has no idea where he is going and won't know to land when he gets there -- I could not say, but stocks did rise today, although they may have risen for propitious astrological signs, for all I know.

Listen, I know that a 1.1% increase in the Dow (up 181.04 to 16,437.18) and the S&P500 (up 20.22 to 1,872.18 makes everybody feel rich, but today hasn't changed the charts. I'm not saying they won't change and turn up, but this alone didn't do it. It did close both above their 20 DMAs, but still below relevant resistance and coming off a downward key reversal.

Dow in Silver jumped up 2.6% to 831.42 (S$1,074.97). Remains above the 20 DMA but the MACD has signaled sell. Dow in gold rose 1.28% to 12.59 oz (G$260.26 gold dollars). Trying to roll over downward.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.