Tuesday, April 01, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $3.80 and Ended Comex at $1,279.60

Gold Price Close Today : 1279.60
Change : -3.80 or -0.30%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.669
Change : -0.065 or -0.33%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.057
Change : 0.022 or 0.03%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01537
Change : -0.000005 or -0.03%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1428.00
Change : 9.50 or 0.67%

Palladium Price Close Today : 708.10
Change : 2.60 or 0.37%

S&P 500 : 1,885.52
Change : 13.18 or 0.70%

Dow In GOLD$ : $267.08
Change : $ 2.00 or 0.75%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.920
Change : 0.097 or 0.75%

Dow in SILVER oz : 840.54
Change : 6.57 or 0.79%

Dow Industrial : 16,532.61
Change : 74.95 or 0.46%

US Dollar Index : 80.240
Change : 0.000 or 0.00%

The GOLD PRICE lost $3.80 (0.3%) and ended Comex at $1,279.60. Silver was basically flat today. Closed Comex 6-1/2 cents (0.3%) lighter than it started, but at 1966.9 that was no big fall. Range was 1991 - 1964c.

The GOLD PRICE continues to dance over and under that neckline from the Dec-Feb. upside down Head and Shoulders. Stochastic is trying to turn up, lower now that it was at the December low. So is the rate of change, and the RSI is nearly that low. It would be very surprising to see a market as oversold as gold stage another big drop. Possible, but not likely. Volume is dropping, a sign the move is drying up.

What about the SILVER PRICE? Well, RSI is lower than the December low, as is the rate of change and full stochastics. The downtrend has run out of steam.

Oh, I know, the Federal Reserve may announce tomorrow they've learned how to transmute compost into gold, and drive the market straight down, but that is NOT in the charts. Maybe a hair more price erosion, but very little. And if the Fed did announce that, you can be sure that the next day they would announce, "Whoops! We made a mistake! We meant to say 'transmute compost into loam.' Typo. Never mind."

I bought more silver today, and a little gold.

I'm not a bit good for this today. Sun is shining, it's about 78 degrees, we have a place covered with daffodils, and we have 47 new piglets. Too much to distract me. But here goes anyway:

Think about the whole mess as a shift from real assets to paper assets and a shift back. In 2011 commodities -- real stuff -- all peaked after long rises, and have spent about 2-1/2 years correcting those rallies. They are not commodities, but they are real, so I include silver and gold under that heading "commodities."

Where's my proof? Look at the Reuters -CRB (CCI) commodity index, or at platinum, or palladium, or gold, or silver, or oil, and now copper. That last seems to be recovering from its bad fall, and if it can close above $3.25 will turn up. All of these have either broken out above their downtrend lines from 2011 peaks or are now challenging those lines. Meanwhile, for the first quarter in a long time, the Dow did not rise in the first quarter 2014, and the S&P500 only a trivial amount.

Investor attention is shifting from paper to real assets. And a roll like that doesn't happened overnight, it wheels slowly, so you have to be patient. Against this long term backdrop all this daily back and forth confusion is unrolling. Helps to lift up your eyes and look at the horizon now and then to make sure where you're going. Later this year a crisis and hard fall will come in paper assets, namely, stocks, but it will take a long time before the crowd understands that the tides have turned.

I think that stocks broke out to the upside today, but they need one more up day to confirm that. Dow rose 74.95 (0.46%) to 16,532.61 and the S&P bumped up 13.18 (0.7%) to 1,885.52, a new high. That pokes the heads of both indices above the upper boundary of that, and since an uptrend has long been in progress, the presumption lies with higher prices. Looking for a top in May, but maybe later.

On strength in stocks the Dow in Metals indicators are still correcting upward. Dow in gold rose 0.81% today, reaching 12.92 oz (G$267.08 gold dollars). To give you a feeling where this is, the December high was 13.8 oz (G$285.57) and the Dow in gold has not quite retraced 61.8% of the plunge from that high.

The Dow in silver reached 839.73 oz (0.78%), correcting nearly 90% of the fall from December to mid-February. December high was 853.15 oz, and who knows, it may retrace that whole fall. That would paint a big double top on the chart. Both the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are way overbought and itching to drop.

The infamous US dollars index (well, the index isn't infamous, but the dollar surely is) behaved very oddly today: it closed unchanged. Traded in a narrow range from 80.12 to 80.29 and closed at 80.24. Inspires confidence like watching your pilot climb on the plane, reach in his pocket and take out a half pint of whiskey, throw it back for a long slug, and then turn and smile at you.

Not that the Euro looks much better. It rose 0.15% today to $1.3793, but remains under its 20 day moving average and a strong downtrend line, charming as a slug in salt.

Japanese yen lost 0.45% in an accelerating downtrend. Closed at 96.46, right at the last low of 96.38 cents/Y100. Below that it has no support before 95.51. Yea, it stinketh.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.