The Gold Price Lost $10.70 Today Closing at $1,245.60

	23-May-14	30-May-14	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.	1,291.70	1,245.60	-46.10	-3.6
Silver Price, $/oz.	19.388	18.653	-0.735	-3.8
Gold/silver ratio	66.624	66.777	0.154	0.2
Silver/gold ratio	0.0150	0.0150	-0.0000	-0.2
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	265.76	277.44	11.68	4.4
Dow in gold ounces	12.86	13.42	0.56	4.4
Dow in Silver ounces	856.52	896.22	39.70	4.6
Dow Industrials	16,606.27	16,717.17	110.90	0.7
S&P500	1,900.53	1,923.57	23.04	1.2
US dollar index	80.43	80.43	0.00	0.0
Platinum Price	1,475.20	1,454.70	-20.50	-1.4
Palladium Price	831.45	835.65	4.20	0.5

The GOLD PRICE mislaid another $10.70 (0.85%) today and closed Comex at $1,245.60. Silver slumped 33 cents (1.74%) to 1,865.30.
Are the silver and gold prices destined to hit last June's lows ($1,180 and 1817c) again? Durned if I know, but if they don't stop here soon, they must suffer further humiliation.

The SILVER PRICE low today at 1864c matched the 1 May intraday low at 1868.5c. This is it, the bottom of the support range. Excuses don't count here, you either hold or die.

The GOLD PRICE low today at $1,241.80 lies not far from where a rough target measurement from the preceding triangle's height ought to take it (about $1,216). Besides that is the January low at $1,237.50.

Meanwhile, volume in silver is drying up, and in gold has fallen so low you wonder why any traders bother going to work any more. Normally declining volume signals that the trend is running out of steam.

There 'tis. I'm just like a fool at a tennis match who's following the instructions of that fellow who told him to watch the ball. I'm watching amazed as values move further and further from agreement with price, but this is the best thing that could happen to gold and silver investors, better than free donuts for life. Y'all ought to hanging over this market like hungry buzzards, jumping on every fresh decline.

I reckon I'm going to have to work on my metaphors and similes. Sometimes they're a little less than tasty. Bottom line is that markets are not rational, and when the more outrageously irrational they become, the greater our opportunity to take advantage and profit. Remember my Tennessee proverb: Sooner or later, reality revenges itself.

'Twas an up-week for stocks but pitiless for metals -- owch. US dollar index spun wheels and went nowhere, didn't even throw up much mud. White metals moved sideways, while central banks around the globe continued to suck the blood out of their victim populations.
When markets DON'T react to news as they logically ought, something's up. Yesterday despite economist's rosy forecasts, first Quarter GDP came out contracting at a 1% annual rate. Mmmmm. Two quarters contracting running makes it a recession, yet the S&P500 rose to a new all time high despite this news. Complacency and optimism have reached narcotic levels.

Now y'all think: if GDP is contracting, economic activity is contracting, and that can't be good for stocks. Yet they rose anyway. Metastatic optimism.

And the economists forecasting, almost as accurate as Nordic rune-casters, found all sorts of excuses why GDP ought to have been down, mostly centering on bad weather. There are excuses, bad excuses, and plumb sorry excuses, and that one is plumb sorry and has more holes than a sweater at a moth farm.

But what do I know? I'm only a suspicious durned fool from Tennessee who only knows a little Latin: Timeo economistes et dona ferentes.

Dow confirmed the Dow transports' new high as well as the S&P500's new highs, while the SP500 clocked another new high today. By golly, we've got a proverbial Mexican cat ranch by the tail here, a perpetual money-making scheme. (Y'all know about the Mexican cat ranch? You raise rats to feed the cats and skin the cats, sell the hides, and feed the carcasses back to the rats. It's a never ending money-making mo-sheen.")

Get serious, Moneychanger.

Okay, Dow added 18.43 (0.11%) to climb to 16,717.17, although it remained underwater the whole day until the last 15 minutes. That's as convenient as finding a $100 bill -- in somebody else's pocket. Never mind, it got onto the scoreboard. In America, that's all that counts. Previous high was 13 May 2014 at 16,715.44. S&P inched up 3.54 (0.18%) to end at 1,923.57, against yesterday's new high at 1,920.53.

That bumps the Dow smack up against the top boundary of the megaphone of death that has been forming since 1998. S&P500 already crossed above ("overthrew") its analogous upper boundary earlier this year. Time to fish or cut bait. Either stocks will make a lasting top here and crumple for years to come, taking the economy with them, or there is a Santa Claus, who, with the Easter Bunny and the Money Fairy, works for the Federal Reserve.

Throwovers and tops feed on themselves, and are unpredictable. This can last several more weeks, but the end is sure.

Dow in silver gained 1.23% to close 888.27 oz (S$1,148.47 silver dollars). This approaches my target of 912 oz (S$1,179.15). In the last twelvemonth the Dow in silver has formed a rising wedge, which can be expected to break out to the downside. Chart is at http://scharts.co/1wC0dtz Interesting -- even with a Dow at 17,000, 912 oz works out to silver at 1864 cents. By the way, that 888.27 oz is a new high for the move.

Dow in Gold only inched up 0.44% to 13.37 oz (G$276.38 gold dollars. You can view a chart at http://scharts.co/1hH52br Dow in gold is trading in a channel about 2.8 oz wide. By mid-June the top boundary will be around 15.1 oz. No sign of turning down yet, although the RSI and Full Stochastics are reaching overbought levels (silver, too.)

Currencies are spending days in a coma, only to wake up and sprint a mile. US dollar fell below its 200 DMA (80.46) to 80.43, down ten basis points or 0.12%. Daily chart shows no direction but erosion lower, but if the US dollar index can struggle above that 200 DMA it should rise to 81.50. Every time I think the dollar is about to rise, it slumps.

The euro rose 0.23% to $1.3634, smack on its 200 DMA, but other than a little oversold reaction rally, there's no hope in this chart. If the European Central Bank criminals announce new easing measures next week, it should accelerate its plunge.

Yen is barely moving. Lost 0.3% to close today at 98.27. Technically in an uptrend, but trapped beneath its 200 DMA. Congestion will break soon, probably upward.

Ten year US treasury not yield rose 0.41% to 2.457%. This brings it back to the upper channel line it overthrew a year ago. Must turn here or drop much further. Chart is at http://scharts.co/1wC6UM8

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Closed at $1,256.30 Needs to Close Above $1,280

29-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,256.30	-3.00	-0.24%
Silver Price, $/oz	18.98	-0.05	-0.27%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.180	0.023	0.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	-0.0000	-0.04%
Platinum Price	1,462.10	-3.30	-0.23%
Palladium Price	833.80	-6.05	-0.72%
S&P 500	1,920.03	10.25	0.54%
Dow	16,698.74	65.56	0.39%
Dow in GOLD $s	274.77	1.73	0.63%
Dow in GOLD oz	13.29	0.08	0.63%
Dow in SILVER oz	879.67	5.85	0.67%
US Dollar Index	80.53	-0.07	-0.09%

The GOLD PRICE fell $3.00 to $1,256.30. Silver shaved off 5.2 cents to 1898.3c.

When you are reduced to saying stuff like, "Well, if silver were really weak it would have fallen more after that break," you're grabbing at straws. That's true, it seems contradictory and might point to underlying strength that the silver and gold price have not followed through lower after Monday's big fall, but that's a backhanded compliment -- like saying a boy is ugly as a bucket of slop but at least don't smell bad, too. Who wants to rank in that league?

Here's something better.

The SILVER PRICE reached a new low for the move today at 1878 cents, but did not finish the day down there. In a sort of Step 1 of a Key Reversal (if you count the day and not the Comex), it traded down to 1878c and was still there about 1:30 central time. Before I could make up my mind to buy a little, it shot up a dime. If it closes higher tomorrow, I'll think about calling that a reversal.

They needn't have bothered to open up gold trading today. High came at $1,260.60 and low at $1,250.90 -- why bother for a $10 trading range? If the last two day's pause marks roughly the halfway point of the decline, it should stop around $1,240 or $1,230. The GOLD PRICE now needs a close above $1,280 to turn around.

For all my bellyaching, I'm not shorting anything here and I find myself buying.

Stocks are hovering. All attention -- and money -- has been poured into the S&P500, and today it rose 10.25 (0.54%) to make another new all-time high. Closed at 1,920.03. Yet no other index, particularly not the Dow, has made a new high, save the Nasdaq 100, which is close. If those other indices fall back, that's sort of like a platoon all taking one step back and leaving one man standing forward when volunteers are called for. Should some of those others start climbing, it might send stocks on another two or three week jaunt upwards into a final high.

Dow gained 65.67 (0.39%) to 16,698.74.

Dow in metals bumped up again. Dow in gold hit 13.29 oz (G$274.43 gold dollars), up 0.57%. Dow in Silver ended up 0.4% at 878.23 oz (S$1,135.49 silver dollars), a new high for the move. Going higher.

US dollar index, although it has pierced its 200 DMA (80.46) and remains above it, has backed off. Today it gave away 7 basis points and ended at 80.53. Technically it ought to head higher, but when? Euro gained the 0.08% today that the dollar index lost, but remains below its 200 DMA. Central banks fear markets as much as markets fear them. They dread to disappoint markets, so with all expecting some "easing" from the ECB, they will likely do so next week. Anyway, decision appears to have been colluded on amongst the central banks to let the euro fall.

What bothers my mind most about the dollar is that its movements overlap, like a corrective and not an advancing wave.

Yen rose 0.5% to 98.26, lost as a golfball in high weeds and baffled as a hog with a sidesaddle. In a nothing-much uptrend, but must clear 200 DMA and 99c/Y100 before it goes anywhere.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Price Acts Like a Market that Has Run Out of Downside Momentum

28-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,259.30	-6.20	-0.49%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.04	0.00	0.02%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.157	-0.340	-0.51%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	0.0001	0.51%
Platinum Price	1,465.10	0.40	0.03%
Palladium Price	830.65	9.20	1.12%
S&P 500	1,909.78	-2.13	-0.11%
Dow	16,333.18	-42.32	-0.26%
Dow in GOLD $s	268.11	0.62	0.23%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.97	0.03	0.23%
Dow in SILVER oz	858.06	-2.40	-0.28%
US Dollar Index	80.60	0.18	0.22%

The GOLD PRICE chiseled off $6.20 (0.5%) to $1,259.30. Silver lost 4/10 of one cent to 1903.5c.

The SILVER PRICE ranged a huge 19 cents today, from 1897c to 1916c, then closed 4/10 cent higher? Dead. No new sellers coming in. That argues it won't go lower, or not by much. Then there's that falling GOLD/SILVER RATIO, down from 66.624 on 23 May to 66.157 today. (By the way, don't let me forget to remind y'all to swap gold for silver. That high ratio will not last forever.) Volume dropped today too, right sharp.

Y'all think about the GOLD PRICE a minute. Since last June's low it has traded in a range from $1,180 to $1,434, more narrowly $1,180 - $1,360. It double bottomed in December, and has spent most of the last year above $1,250. There's no big change here, and it acts like a market that has run out of downside momentum.

Wouldn't everyone be amazed if silver turned around and blasted through 1950c in a day or two? Watch for it. As long as silver doesn't fall through 1868c, it's possible.

Sometimes I don't keep my mind on what I'm doing and so overlook things. I read an article today by James Turk pointing out that yesterday was options expiration date for Comex options and Thursday expiration for OTC options.

The 20 watt bulb in my dim brain flickered to life. Of course. If the black-shirts on the Comex floor can run silver and gold prices down, they'll have to pay off on futures options. This happens monthly -- how could I have forgotten? You don't have to postulate a global government/bank conspiracy for this one, just the same old thieves running things answers nicely. It's a variant of another game floor traders play called "run the stops" where they run the price down or up enough to hit the nested stops, then run the price back the other way to clear their position.

If the options expiration scam was the force operating in yesterday's decline, then it was meaningless even to the short term trend. You'll know after Thursday. Market ought to come back Friday if that analysis is valid.

For the nonce, at least, stocks have yet again disappointed. Too early to say for sure, thought. Dow fell back 42.32 (0.25%) to 16,633.18. S&P500 did not make another new high, yea, fell back 2.13 (0.11%) to 1,909.78.

Friends, I may look silly, but it's nigh impossible to parse a topping market. S&P500 might shoot up to 2000, or it might crumple here. Either way it's riding on dandelion fluff and moonbeams.

A close above the last high at 16,715.44 is needed to take the Dow higher, and I don't mean two points above that, I mean 2% or above 17,050. That would clearly state stocks are moving higher.

Dow in gold barely moved today, up 0.13% from 13.20 oz yesterday to 13.22 oz (G$273.28 gold dollars), but it clean broke out of that flat topped triangle yesterday. Here's a chart, http://scharts.co/1wns6W3 Dow in silver nicked down, 0.1% to 874.74 oz (S$1,130.98 silver dollars). Here's the chart, http://scharts.co/1wnsV1c

In the currency markets everybody is betting the ECB will soon "ease," or, in plain English, crank up the presses and create a tanker load of new money. This sent the Euro down again today 0.3% to $1.3594 even though the 10 year US treasury note yield dropped 3.18% today. Since currency exchange rates are largely determined by interest rate differentials (yes, and inflation expectations) the dollar ought to have weakened against the euro. Instead, it rose 18 basis points (0.22%) to 80.60. Y'all ought also bear in mind that just as a rising market attracts buyers, so a falling market attracts sellers, as rotten meat draws flies. Thus the euro's fall is feeding on itself and the news (that really is no news), and today fell past another milestone, the 200 day moving average ($1.3630). Probably several months more of falling euro lies before us.

Yen doesn't know sic 'em from come here. Touched its 200 DMA above but fell away and now is vibrating around its 20 DMA.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Closed Down $26.50 at $1,265.50

27-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,265.50	-26.50	-2.05%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.04	-0.35	-1.80%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.469	-0.170	-0.26%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0150	0.0000	0.26%
Platinum Price	1,465.70	-10.50	-0.71%
Palladium Price	830.65	-0.80	-0.10%
S&P 500	1,911.91	11.38	0.60%
Dow	16,675.50	69.23	0.42%
Dow in GOLD $s	272.39	6.69	2.52%
Dow in GOLD oz	13.18	0.32	2.52%
Dow in SILVER oz	875.86	19.34	2.26%
US Dollar Index	80.42	-0.01	-0.01%

Break came in silver and GOLD PRICES today, more in gold than silver. Gold sank $26.20 (2.05%) while silver only fell 34.9 cents (1.8%).

The GOLD PRICE had built that long, narrow even-sided triangle which promises a breakout but always keeps shutmouthed about which way. Gold sold slowly off until it reached $1,282.50 where it began tumbling. Still, it was an orderly day, with no huge slam-downs.

Today's close came near the $1,264.30 low and matches the high in 2010. In other words, this correction that began in 2011 has rolled back four years' gains in gold. Y'all don't care about that, though, y'all want to know what the gold price will do tomorrow.

I don't know. Today's tumble took gold down to the April low. It might in fact stop here. Or it might repeat the pattern of the last 2 months and rally back, only to lose back in the following days.

There was also a $1,240 low in January. It might catch there if today is not a one-day clean out spike. Orthodox way to measure the target would be to subtract the $63 height of the triangle from today's breakout at $1,280 for a $1,217 target. Below that are all the points clustered between $1,210 and $1,180. I don't think it will reach $1,000, as those on Wall Street pontificate, but I'm jes' a nacheral born fool from Tennessee and too durned suspicious to trust central bank money printing.

Only two ways to play a break like this: you either grab it with both hands anticipating it is only a brief spike, or you wait several days to see how it shakes out. Momentum indicators look awful, but they always do at bottoms.

The SILVER PRICE broke through the bottom boundary of its uptrend that began May 1, but only fell to the same 1900c area that has been support for so long. It could drop again to 1890c - 1870c, or it might drop to 1750c. From what I saw today, I'm guessing that those buyers who have been waiting for something to happen will come out of the woodwork at these prices.

However this fall unrolls, I am glad to see it, because it will wash out the weak hands and set the final step in place for the silver and gold price to rally.

S&P500 rose 11.38 (0.6%) to a new all-time high at 1,911.91. At 16,675.50 (up 69.23 or 0.42%), the Dow did NOT make a new all time high. S&P500's rise today above the top resistance line has to be confirmed with higher prices still -- all the more so since it's failure after the last new all-time high.

Both the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver broke out of consolidations and headed higher. I'm just waiting and watching. Dow in Gold closed at 13.20 oz (G$272.87 gold dollars) and Dow in Silver rose 2.66% to 875.58 oz (S$1,132.06 silver dollars). My target for the Dow in Silver is no higher than 912 oz (S$1,179.15).

After Friday's excitement, currency markets have gone back to sleep. US Dollar Index today lost one (1) basis point to 80.42, unable to keep on rising through its 200 DMA (80.49). Euro rose 0.1% to $1.3636 on comments yesterday by ECB head Alan Greensp -- No, wait, he only SOUNDS like Greenspan, his name is Draghi. Anyway, he made noises that maybe, perhaps, possibly the ECB might have to step up inflation. When Lenin's secret police chief asked him how he would get their counterrevolutionary opponents to bite on his scheme for a phony opposition, Lenin said, "Tell them what they want to hear." The communists who rule us are still using that same tactic today. (If y'all don't understand how central bank "capitalists" might really be "communists," I'll have to explain later. Just leave it at this: maybe they never were capitalists to begin with, or maybe they're just the other side of that dialectic "communism/capitalism" that keeps most of us confused.)

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Closed at $1,291.70

26-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,291.70	0.00	0%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.388	0.00	0%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.624	0.00	0%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0150	0.00	0%

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Closed Down $1.60 for the Week at $1,291.70

	16-May-14	23-May-14	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.	1,293.30	1,291.70	-1.60	-0.1
Silver Price, $/oz.	19.292	19.388	0.096	0.5
Gold/silver ratio	67.038	66.624	-0.414	-0.6
Silver/gold ratio	0.0149	0.0150	0.0001	0.6
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	263.59	265.76	2.17	0.8
Dow in gold ounces	12.75	12.86	0.10	0.8
Dow in Silver ounces	854.83	856.52	1.70	0.2
Dow Industrials	16,491.31	16,606.27	114.96	0.7
S&P500	1,877.86	1,900.53	22.67	1.2
US dollar index	80.11	80.43	0.32	0.4
Platinum Price	1,465.30	1,475.20	9.90	0.7
Palladium Price	814.80	831.45	16.65	2.0

On Comex, where they take no prisoners, the GOLD PRICE lost $3.30 to end at $1,291.70 while silver gave up 10.2 cents and closed at 19.388. Past seven days have witnessed silver and gold as somnolent as I've ever seen them. Some big event is needed to break this impasse. Higher dollar doesn't help, but that doesn't always keep the gold price down. More help would come from stocks dropping sharply.

The last week hasn't changed anything for silver and GOLD PRICES. Gold remains in a narrow even-sided triangle bounded today by roughly $1,280 and $1,303.75, and it groweth narr'er by the day. The SILVER PRICE is in an uptrend that began in May but has since forgotten what it was doing. Silver can't even stay above its 20 day moving average, but then, neither can the gold price. Frankly, best thing that could happen now would be for silver and gold to fall sharply, clear out the shorts, and set the stage for another rally. This dead-in-the-water sidewise float is for the fowls.

Monday is a US holiday, Memorial Day, but Tuesday is not. Look for some fun to start next week.

By the way, British regulators today fined Barclays Bank $48 million for the actions of a trader in the London Gold Fix in June 2012. Barclays is one of four Banksters that participates twice daily in the London Gold FIX. In this case the trader bogused up enough orders to push gold below a threshold that would have forced Barclays to pay a customer $3.9 million and profited the bank $1.75 mn. This comes one day after Barclays was slapped with a $450 million fine for rigging LIBOR. Listen: you can always trust a bank. . . To act like a bank. After all, it stands for Bilk All Ninety-eight-point-six Kustomers.


Markets is people, and people don't make sense. Thus I will not torture myself over the apparent contradictions, I will just sit tight and wait till they go away, without pretending I can explain them.

Stocks struggled through the week and managed to rise a little by week's end. Metals are in the deadest slumber I can remember (but I'm getting old). White metals had a rotten day today but closed higher for the week. US dollar index got up off the mat and advanced to its 200 DMA. Pretty good for a nasty, scrofulous, parasitical fiat currency, but tough on the euro and yen.

The Dow and S&P500 are diverging here a bit. S&P500 nearly touched its last intraday high (1,902.17) but closing at a new all time high close, 1,900.53 (up 8.04 or 0.42% today). Meanwhile the Dow, up today 63.19 or 0.38% to 16,606.27, lags far behind. Its last intraday high was 16,735.51 and its all time high close 16715.44 (13 May, same as S&P500).

Other indices can't agree, either. The Nasdaq 100 broke out of its downtrend six days ago, but remains far below its all-time high. Russell 2000 remains in its downtrend but hit the downtrend line today. Wilshire 5000 remains below its all time high.

These are not smashing new highs but struggling highs. Signs of a top abound, head and shoulders patterns, broadening tops, diamonds. Stocks may have shot their wad today, or might make a slightly higher high next week, but I believe the end draweth nigh.

Dow in Gold continues to dither. Rose today 0.47% to 12.84 oz (G$265.43 gold dollars). It did close above the 20 DMA but remains locked in a sidewise range.

Dow in silver dithereth even more tightly than the Dow in gold. Rose 0.49% to 852.92 oz (S$1,102.77 silver dollars). A big break one way or the other approacheth. May get one more new high before this ends.

The US dollar index on 7 May turned up from a 78.93 low and shot clean up to its downtrend line in six days (about 80.40). Then it fainted. Last three days it has shown life again, and today broke above its downtrend line, touched its 2020 DMA (80.490 and closed higher by 14 basis points (0.17%).Dollar intends to move higher, but must climb the stile at 80.80. Euro has just plumb broke down beyond redemption. Touched its 200 DMA ($1.3627) today and closed down 0.16% at $1.3624. Appears the trend for the next few months will be higher dollar, lower euro. Great for you folks planning European vacations. Japanese yen three days hence struck its 200 DMA (98.95) and was knocked out cold. Lost another 0.23% today to 98.07c. Technically in an uptrend since April, but oh, Mercy! It's a slow one.

PRECIOUS METALS IRAs. Some of y'all have precious metals IRAs already, and some would like to have. For that, there's no one better than New Direction IRA in Louisville, Colorado. They are easy to work with and efficient, even with human beings answering the phone. Promptly. And their fees are reasonable.

We don't administer IRAs as a trustee, but with New Direction IRA as your IRA trustee you can buy and silver precious metals through us. One reason I like New Direction is that they understand AND co-operate with our gold-silver swapping strategy. More, they accomplish that in few days with minimal paperwork.

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Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Gained $6.90 Closing at $1,294.90

22-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,294.90	6.90	0.54%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.49	0.18	0.95%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.439	-0.272	-0.41%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	0.0001	0.41%
Platinum Price	1,495.50	13.20	0.89%
Palladium Price	836.30	6.00	0.72%
S&P 500	1,892.49	4.46	0.24%
Dow	16,543.08	10.02	0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s	264.09	-1.25	-0.47%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.78	-0.06	-0.47%
Dow in SILVER oz	848.80	-7.53	-0.88%
US Dollar Index	80.29	0.17	0.21%

I looked at the GOLD PRICE early this morning and it stood at $1,304. Time I got to the office it was below $1,300, and closed the day at $1,294.90, within $1.60 of the last six days' closes, save yesterday.

Friends, let us assume for a moment that this is a natural phenomenon. If so, it means that gangs of sellers lurk around $1,305, while mobs of buyers lurk around $1,290, but the crowds are so evenly matched that they can't push the gold price around more than a couple of dimes a day. Meanwhile that even-sided triangle becomes narrower and narrower as the days pass, forcing some resolution soon.

The SILVER PRICE traded much like the gold price today, with a spike up toward midday, then erosion. Silver closed Comex at 1949, up 18.3 cents and above its 20 DMA (1944c), if that means anything in a market this directionless. Silver reached 1983c at today's high, but in the end closed only that piddling eighteen cents above yesterday.

Clearly one hurdle for silver and GOLD PRICES is that stocks and the last five weeks' sideways trading have drained away interest. People don't buy flat markets.

Be patient, be calm, just wait. Steady, steady!

Well, I never heard tell of such! In the last six trading days, save yesterday , gold closed within a $1.60 range. Yesterday's close was only $5.30 lower that that range. Yep, you all are witnessing a RARE freak o'Nature.

Not that stocks were too peppy today either. Dow traded in a lazy 76 point range. All the hot gas from the FOMC ("Feds Organized for Monetary Crimes") that inflated stocks yesterday just drifted off to the gas-o-sphere up above the ozone layer. Dow gained 10.02 (0.06%) to 16,543,08 (yawn) while the S&P500 inched up 4.46 (0.24%) to 1,892.49. That parked the Dow a few points above its 20 DMA (16,525), piddling, yet above.

As Yogi Berra said, "It's like déjà vu all over again." I've seen this before, markets struggling, reaching higher but seeming out of strength. It doesn't forecast vastly higher prices, but a top. But shucks! I'm such a hick from Tennessee, what do I know? I ain't near as smart as them hicks from Boston and New York who're running the Fed. Why, they're smart enough to keep printing money and keep the stock market rising forever. I know it's so, cause they told me.

Any way I jigger the uptrend line, the Dow in Gold (I just report what I see) has walked through the uptrend line. Yesterday it rose, and above its 20 DMA, bit only to touch that downtrend line. Today it eased off again, down 0.17% to 12.77 oz (G$263.98 gold dollars). It's moving sideways but tugging at breaking down.

Dow in silver hath behaved in like manner. Today it again closed beneath the 20 DMA (850.27 oz) and lost 0.58% to 847.49 oz (S$1,095.74). It's literally oscillating around that 20 DMA, but the indicators are all pulling it lower.

US dollar index did in fact rise today 17 basis points to end at 80.29. That bumps plumb up against the downtrend line, so maybe it will reach escape velocity tomorrow. Euro lost another 0.24% to end at $1.3654. Yen backed off 0.31% to 98.30, so it looks like our masters are re-aligning exchange rates.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Lost $6.50 Closing at $1,288

21-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,288.00	-6.50	-0.50%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.31	-0.01	-0.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.712	-0.316	-0.47%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0150	0.0001	0.47%
Platinum Price	1,474.10	6.00	0.41%
Palladium Price	830.30	4.60	0.56%
S&P 500	1,888.03	15.20	0.81%
Dow	16,533.06	158.75	0.97%
Dow in GOLD $s	265.35	3.87	1.48%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.84	0.19	1.48%
Dow in SILVER oz	856.32	8.49	1.00%
US Dollar Index	80.12	0.03	0.04%

After a hard day the GOLD PRICE closed $1,288, $6.50 lower. Silver lost six cents to 1930.7c.

The days range was only about $14, from $1,296.3 to $1,282.90. Yes, yes, gold fell but not outside its even-sided triangle, and not below its uptrend line. Yet 'tis sorry form to stay below your 200 DMA ($1,299.21) and 20 DMA ($1,295.40), and leads onlookers to conclude you are weak and spineless. Other onlookers might say, though, "Lo! It broke not beneath the bloviating blatherstorm from the FOMC! Is that not a sign of strength?" Other onlookers say naught, having dozed off waiting for something to happen.

Nor did silver change greatly today. Yea, it fell to its uptrend line. So? So nothing meaningful has yet taken place.

The SILVER PRICE breaking below 1925c (the present uptrend line) or gold below roughly $1,278, lower boundary line of its triangle, would constitute a breakdown. Up above, the GOLD PRICE closing over $1,316 or silver over 2005c (the last high) would mark an upside breakout. Meantime, all else merely spins wheels and digs in the mud.

Meanwhile, we wait.

Do y'all remember how, before you learned the rules, you watched your parents play cards and couldn't figure out what was happening? That's how I feel a lot of the time watching markets react to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. They don't even say as much as an Alan Greenspan speech, they mumble on about the same things, but whatever they say stocks rise. I ain't too bright, but I'm beginning to doubt this game makes sense. Whole point is to keep markets forever on tenterhooks. I miss the adults.

The US dollar index sure liked whatever the FOMC said. After making a double bottom with Monday's 79.90-ish low early in the day, about 5:00 a.m. New York time it began to climb, hitting at one point 80.37. Now on the chart that's a big range, and it jumped clean up to the downtrend line, but at the end of the day it nor more than a little mouse-burp because the dollar index only gained 3 basis points to close at 80.12. But that's kind of a key reversal, a break into new low territory with a higher close, except the cheesy low was at 79.94, same place as Monday's. So we're left with the same mulish dollar, balking. Won't rise, won't fall. MACD however, is positive, and today's fall and recovery probably cleaned out a bunch of shorts, making higher prices possible.

Euro sank another 0.11% to $1.3685. Mercy, if you owned euros your teeth would be aching sure enough. Hath fallen nearly to its 200 DMA ($1.3624). Destined for low places, soon. Yen today hit is 200 DMA (99.09) and crumpled. Fell 0.09% to close at 98.63 cents/Y100. That is only the first try, though, and the yen ought to return and breach that barrier.

After losing 137.55 today the Dow gained 158.75 (0.97%) today and closed at 16,533.06. In other words, it bounced off its 50 DMA (16,407) and up to recent resistance. Closed also barely above its 20 DMA (16,523.32). This gets it NEAR to accomplishing something meaningful, but "near to" only scores when you're playing with hand grenades.

S&P500 won back 15.2 points (0.81%) and closed at 1,888.03. 'Tis above the 20 DMA (1,880) but otherwise only at the threshold of recent resistance. Must climb through that that to count.

A workman should never blame his tools. That's the incompetent's way out, yet these charts have been bouncing back and forth like a tennis ball, forever drawing near some resolution without ever in fact resolving, and I'm stumped. Dow in gold crossed back above its 20 DMA (12.76 oz or G$263.77 gold dollars) and still has not cleanly broken down from its rising flat-topped triangle formation. It ushered out today up 1.46% to 12.84 oz (G$265.43 gold dollars).

Dow in silver has walked through its uptrend lines twice, but today also rose over its 20 DMA (849.92 oz or S$1,098.89 silver dollars) to stop at 854.95 oz (S$1,105.39).

My wife Susan had her pacemaker re-programmed last week and together with some medication seems greatly improved. At least that's what I deduce from waking up early this morning to find my bed empty and Susan downstairs trying to fix an outside screen door. This is more like her. Thank you for your prayers, and please don't stop just yet.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Silver and Gold Prices Up Slightly with the Gold Price Closing at $1,294.60

20-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,294.60	0.80	0.06%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.37	0.0045	0.02%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.841	0.026	0.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0150	-0.0000	-0.04%
Platinum Price	1,468.10	-1.30	-0.09%
Palladium Price	825.70	10.30	1.26%
S&P 500	1,872.83	-12.25	-0.65%
Dow	16,374.31	-137.55	-0.83%
Dow in GOLD $s	261.48	-2.36	-0.89%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.65	-0.11	-0.89%
Dow in SILVER oz	845.47	-7.30	-0.86%
US Dollar Index	80.07	-0.04	-0.05%

Friends, this don't happen in nature. The GOLD PRICE last three daily moves have been -20 cents, plus 40 cents, and plus 80 cents. This is not a market but a mausoleum. Gained 80 cents today for a Comex close at $1,294.50. The SILVER PRICE rose -- ready for this? -- 4.5 cents to 1936.7c.

I'm haunted by what the BoE's Bean said. I remember only too well August through November 2008. It was horrifying. The paper and physical prices of silver and GOLD PRICES completely disjointed. Physical silver cost 40% or more above the paper quote, and you couldn't get it except with a six to eight week delay. US 90% silver coins rose to a 50% premium Physical gold didn't acquire that large a premium, but was still 5 - 8% higher than paper gold. And delays? You were lucky to find a wholesaler who would sell it to you even with an 8 week delay.

Markets don't ever play dead long. Silver and gold prices are both in technical uptrends (higher highs, lower lows), but I could make an argument either way from this flatness: either it means silver and gold will drop off, or shoot up. On the weakness side, both the silver and gold price are below their 20 DMA's ($1,295 and 1945c). Gold has built that long narrow even-sided triangle, and that suggests a snake coiling for a long move, you just don't know which way he will strike.

You're right, I am coming down squarely on both sides of the fence. I am not ambiguous about this, though: breakout will come soon, up or down.

Odd, portentous event today. Retiring Bank of England Deputy Governor said that the present low volatility in financial markets is "eerily reminiscent" of the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Now I wonder why he did that? Was this just a Greenspan maneuver, dusting his skirts clean before he leaves and the world blows apart? Or is it a well-meant warning?

Volatility returned to US Stocks today. Dow sank 137.55 (0.83%) to 16,374.31, while the S&P500 also gurgled lower 12.25 (0.65%) to 1,872.83.

Ooooh. That takes the Dow below its 50 DMA (16,403) where cheerleaders were hoping the Dow would stage a rally. Let's see, below 50 DMA and 20 DMA and 200 DMA rests below at 15,891. S&P 500 did not punch through its 50 DMA (1,868) tut touched it and closed not much higher. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite offer no comfort at all. Russell 2000 is below its 50, 20, AND 200 DMA, and about to break down out of a plain topping formation. Nasdaq Comp has nearly completed a head and shoulders top, and is also below its 50 and 20 DMA. Nasdaq 100 alone remains above its 50 and 20 DMA, but it's finishing the right shoulder of a HandS top, too.

It begins to look more and more like 13 May marked the top in stocks.

Dow in Silver and Dow in Gold agree with that conclusion. Dow in Gold today broke clean out of its rising flat topped triangle. Ended down 0.96% (without gold moving!) at 12.65 oz (G$261.50 gold dollars). It's already below its 20 DMA, and the 50 lurks nearby at 12.55 oz (G$259.43).

I don't think it can be denied any longer that the Dow in Silver has turned down, too. It has walked through two uptrend lines, and today closed again below its 20 DMA (849.60 or S$1,098.47). On flat silver it lost 1.11% today to 844.04 oz (S$1,091.28 silver dollars). Should move much lower.

I'd be bald as a Boston billiard ball if I were the Nice Government Man tasked with managing the US dollar -- but then again, I reckon they're doing just what they mean to do. Catatonic, it rose 3 basis points to 80.10. Euro fell 0.7% to $1.3701, Yen rose 0.16% to 98.91. None of them have a lick of gumption. Dollar roared off a bottom two weeks ago, hit 80.40, and forgot what it was doing. Euro has broken down into a fall that may last six or nine months. Yen has broken out upside like a chick hatching, one chip at a time, no follow through. Gigantic moves, followed by catatonia.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Remains in it's Uptrend Since 24 April Closing Up at $1,293.80

19-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,293.80	0.40	0.03%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.32	0.03	0.16%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.96	-0.083	-0.12%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0149	0.0000	0.12%
Platinum Price	1,469.40	4.10	0.28%
Palladium Price	815.40	0.60	0.07%
S&P 500	1,884.94	7.08	0.38%
Dow	16,510.16	18.85	0.11%
Dow in GOLD $s	263.89	0.22	0.08%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.77	0.01	0.08%
Dow in SILVER oz	854.47	-0.35	-0.04%
US Dollar Index	80.07	-0.04	-0.05%

The GOLD PRICE on Friday lost twenty cents. Today it rose 40 cents to end at $1,293.80. That came after, however, a bully opening to the day and climb to 1,305.70 about 9:45. Rest of the day the gold price just kept on backing up.

The SILVER PRICE rose three whole cents today to 1932.2c. Silver, too, began the day with promise of better things and a rise to 1968, but it faded like the gold price. These are simply dead markets, low volume, low ranges.

But silver remains in an uptrend since 1 May -- higher lows and higher highs, remember. The GOLD PRICE remains in an uptrend since 24 April, except that the last high was not higher so it has formed a long-nosed even-sided triangle. It's bumping up against that upper boundary line, but can't close above its 200 dma ($1,399.38).

Can't say nothing about nothing. Markets remain pretty much where they were on Friday, waiting for something to change.

Man, I am excited. I was watching some red paint dry this morning, and that got my blood up. Then I watched some blue paint dry, and that was terrific. But then I looked at markets today, and had to shout, "Be still, my beating heart!"

On a 104 point range (0.6% of the closing price) the Dow meandered to a close 18.85 (0.11%) higher than Friday's, at 16,510.16. S&P500 milled around and closed 7.08 (0.38%) higher at 1,884.94. That leaves the S&P500 above its 20 DMA (1,879.73) but the Dow below its 20 DMA (16,528.76). Both hit their 50 DMA's last week and rebounded higher. Both are stalled and drifting without much direction. That doesn't say that they can't go higher, just that they show no intention of that right now. Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver haven't stirred enough to talk about.

US dollar index is trying to rough up its newly made friends. Dropped another 4 basis points today to close at 80.07. Apparently wants to see if it can invalidate its recent upward reversal. Euro languisheth still, but rose today 0.12% to $1.3709. Still broken. Yen is slowly, o so slowly making good on its breakout. Higher by 0.06% today to 98.58, and reaching toward its 200 DMA at 99.09.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Rose $6 This Week, Needs to Clear $1,315 Next Week

	9-May-14	16-Jun-14	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.	1,287.30	1,293.30	6.00	0.5
Silver Price, $/oz.	19.077	19.292	0.215	1.1
Gold/Silver Ratio	67.479	67.038	-0.441	-0.7
Silver/gold ratio	0.0148	0.0149	0.0001	0.7
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	266.30	263.59	-2.71	-1.0
Dow in gold ounces	12.88	12.75	-0.13	-1.0
Dow in Silver ounces	869.28	854.83	-14.46	-1.7
Dow Industrials	16,583.34	16,491.31	-92.03	-0.6
S&P500	1,878.48	1,877.86	-0.62	-0.0
US dollar index	79.93	80.11	0.18	0.2
Platinum Price	1,428.90	1,465.30	36.40	2.5
Palladium Price	799.80	814.80	15.00	1.9

The week's scoreboard says it all. New all time highs in the Dow and S&P500? Yes, but they ended the week lower. Silver and GOLD PRICES slapped in mid-week? Yes, but closed the week higher. White metals higher, and all this in the teeth of a higher dollar that clearly reversed upward.

Today the GOLD PRICE closed down 20 cents at $1,293.30. Silver backed up 15.5 cents to 1929.2c. For the week both metals rose, silver 1.1%, gold 0.5%.

Something stinks in all markets. They simply aren't behaving as markets do. They show hardly any trading range. They jump on the open, then do nothing. In the last 30 days silver and gold prices have both made three dramatic key reversals, confirmed with higher closes the next day, but then fallen back. 'Tain't natural. Markets just don't keep acting that way. They break out or they break down. This points to "management" by the Nice Government Men, but I hate to be forever pulling that out as the explanation for everything.

Behold, this much is sure! No matter how much the NGM manipulate, they can only do it at the margin, and not for long. As proof I point to the gold price rise from $252 and silver's from $4.01 since 2001. Soon, probably this month, silver and gold will stage a big rally that soars past the straggling highs of the last two years. And they are both out of their usual seasonal sync, so they should rise into June and July. Morale in the silver and gold markets has been so beaten down and bloodied that it's hard for most folks to see that THE LOWS ARE BEHIND US.

Then I look at the lunatic monetary and financial system. Give a roomful of teenage boys cases of gin, car keys, and free passes to a stripper club. That's about what central banking and finance looks like today: the adults have disappeared. The Fed has had a long string of good luck and breaks that have made its money creation and lies look valid. "Luck" is not a firm foundation for an economy or a currency.

Technically both the SILVER PRICE and the gold price are barely above the downtrend lines on their weekly charts. On daily charts they are in three week uptrends, and pushing the upper boundaries. Momentum indicators are generally positive.

Look for the gold price clearing $1,315 next week, which will be the bell starting the race. Silver still needs to clear 2000c, then 2060c.

I know y'all probably think I'm Johnny One Note, but I can't sing any note but the one I see in front of me. Now is the time to buy while prices are low and before silver and gold begin rallying.

Mathematically the stock market does not have to tank for the Dow in Gold (or Silver) to fall. Gold only needs to outperform stocks, so both might be rising, but gold rising faster. During the 1920-1923 German hyperinflation, stocks soared, but in the end they fell far behind the hyperinflation, which brings me to my point. In an age of inflation when evaluating any asset becomes like trying to shoot skeet off the back of a bass boat in a thunderstorm: the only thing that counts is purchasing power. Nominal gains mean nothing, only purchasing power gains.

Stocks today tried without success to climb to positive territory until about 3:00 as closing time drew near and suddenly buyers appeared out of nowhere. Yeah, sure. Dow rose 44.5 (0.27%) to 16,491.31, no more than a dead cat bounce after losing 268.63 the previous two days. S&P500 clawed back 7.03 (0.38%) to 1,877.86. Since end-December stocks have tried and failed three times to break through 16,500-16,600. This week they collapsed and fell back to the 50 DMA. Can they rally from here? I tend to picture the top as behind us, but that's possible.

Dow and S&P500 weekly charts show markets that have traded up to overhead trend line and bounced back, too.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver are a little confused. At its 12.75 oz close today (G$263.57 gold dollars) the Dow in gold remains below its 12.77 oz 20 DMA, and right atop its rising uptrend line. Dow in silver rose 1.13% to 853.19 oz (S$1,103.11 silver dollars), above its 20 DMA (849.67 oz or S$1,098.56). Both are trying to break down but haven't yet.

Mercy, the 10 year treasury note yield took a beating this week, from 2.656% on 12 May to 2.518% today. Sounds insignificant, but smashed the support line and gapped down. This and the likewise tumbling yield on 30 year bonds imply investors are crowding into bonds as they flee from stocks. (Bond prices rise when bond yields fall.) Doesn't bode bouquets for stocks.

US dollar index showed unaccustomed gumption since its turn upwards a week ago Thursday. Shot straight up of 78.93 low but could not pierce its overhead downtrend line and stopped cold at 80.40 and fell back. Today rose two (minute) basis points to 80.11. Must yet validate last week's upward reversal by closing over 80.40, really, over the 200 DMA at 80.53. Likely will.

Euro is a wreck. Closed today down 0.11% at $1.3695, and soon will fall below its 200 DMA ($1.3617). Yen is seeking to break out, and has broken out above its downtrending range upper boundary, but above stands the 200 DMA at 99.04. Can it punch through that? Good chance, but the yen must prove it next week. Yen closed today up 0.04% at 98.50.

But what do I know? I'm just a nacheral born durn fool from Tennessee who only wears shoes when he has to show up in church. I ain't got no more sense than to believe that gravity always works.

I have been nudging everyone here at the Top of the World Farm toward Holistic Management for a number of years. Usually you have to travel to New Mexico or Canada to attend the training sessions, but one was offered a couple of years ago at Summertown, about half an hour from us. I sent my sons Justin and Wright and it changed the way they thought and farmed. Holistic Management (see the book by Alan Savory) is a management technique that takes the whole-under-management into account for every decision. The results have astounded even me, in animals, costs, and quality of life. In 25 years, all agriculture will be conducted this way, and nobody will be able to believe that anybody in America ever used pesticides, herbicides, and high cost inputs and debt.

On 17-19 June 2014 they're offering another Introduction to Holistic Management Whole Farm/Ranch Planning and Holistic Planned Grazing. Owen Hablutzel is the teacher. You'll find full description and registration at Spiral Ridge Permaculture, http://bit.ly/1iucANl

On 20-22 June they're offering Keyline Design: Whole Farm/Ranch Planning for Water Abundance and Soil Fertility all about Keyline Plowing. Keylining slices deep into the earth to capture water flowing off the contour and creates drought resilience and maximum water harvest. Read about it and register here, http://bit.ly/1mB9VHV

Yes, I eat my own cooking. We use Holistic Management on our own Farm and have extensively used Keyline Plowing. If you apply these techniques you will recoup the cost of the courses many times over and bring more order and peace into your life and operation.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Lost $12.20 Closing at $1,293.50

15-May-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,293.50	-12.20	-0.93%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.45	-0.29	-1.46%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.514	0.352	0.53%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0150	-0.0001	-0.53%
Platinum Price	1,469.60	-15.80	-1.06%
Palladium Price	811.90	-16.70	-2.02%
S&P 500	1,870.85	-17.88	-0.95%
Dow	16,446.81	-167.16	-1.01%
Dow in GOLD $s	262.84	-0.19	-0.07%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.71	-0.01	-0.07%
Dow in SILVER oz	845.72	3.87	0.46%
US Dollar Index	80.08	-0.04	-0.05%

It was disappointing to see the GOLD PRICE lose $12.20 to $1,293.50 and silver give back 28.8 cents to 1944.7c. Disappointing, but hardly fatal.
Take silver first. Somewhat suspiciously massive selling appeared about 9:30 Eastern Time, massive enough to smash silver down from 1968c to 1943c in about ten minutes. I pass over this event in silence, since the Nice Government Men might take umbrage if I point the finger at them, although they are the most likely suspect. The SILVER PRICE rebounded in a couple of hours to 1963c, but faded off the rest of the day for that 1944.7c close.

Stepping back a bit, silver remains in an uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) that began with the 1868.5c low on 1 May. It touched back today to the 20 DMA. If it seriously intends an uptrend, it ought to cross above 2000c in the next two or three days.

Like silver the GOLD PRICE got clobbered by mysterious but deep pocketed forces about 9:30, knocking it from $13,04 to $1,290.90 in less than a quarter hour. Comex closed below $1,295 at $1,293.50 but the day ended at $1,296.10.

The gold price has been trending up since $1,268.40 low on 24 April 2014: higher lows, higher highs, except it must yet better $1,315.80, the very last high. Rising above $1,309 will also give gold escape speed from the even-sided triangle formation, and should lead to a much longer run. I didn't like higher volume today on a falling price, but other indicators keep on pointing their fingers up.

Let's take stock of stocks.

Since the last days of 2013 the Dow has been attempting, lo, hath tried thrice, to break through 16,500 - 16,600 resistance, but has failed. Last try was a new all time high on 13 May at 16,613.97, but two days later the Dow is 268 points (1.7%) lower. Thus 'twas not a breakout, but a fake out.

S&P500 hath tried thrice since 1 March to break through 1880 - 1900, but it, too, hath failed. Today both it and the Dow bumped into their 50 day moving averages below. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have been lagging and dragging -- leading the way down, as it turns out.

Today the Dow lost 167.16 (1.01%) to close at 1,6446.81. S&P500 lost 17.88 (0.94%) and ended at 1,870.85. All this constitutes, until and unless the market gainsays with higher prices, a plain downward reversal.

Silver Price

 Gold Price

Meanwhile the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are making good on the signals they have been hinting. Dow in Gold lost 0.1% today to 12.71 oz (G$262.74 gold dollars), and fell through its 20 DMA (12.76 oz). A heartbeat only separates it from breaking down from the flat-topped rising triangle it has been forming since mid-March. Any close below today's will be outside that triangle.


The rising flat-topped triangle (Mercy, that's clumsy!) formed AFTER the 31 December 2013 peak at 13,80 oz (G$285.27), the high for the move. Other indicators point down.

Dow in silver rose 0.47% today to 844.12 oz (S$1,091.39 silver dollars), but only after falling through its 20 day moving average yesterday, and after twice bumping through its uptrend line. Indicators signaling a trip downhill.

That rotten US dollar index today touched its downtrend (from February) line and clean fainted. Lost 4 basis points to close 80.08. That's probably not too surprising for a first try at punching through.

Meanwhile the 10 year treasury not yield plunged yet again, down 1.61% to 2.502%, back at November 2013's low. This bodes bad indigestion for stocks. Money is fleeing stocks into government securities.

Euro lost 0.2% to $1.3711. That was up off the low at $1.3648. Euro has a long way yet to fall. This is only beginning.

Yen definitively broke above its reigning trading range boundary to close at 98.47 cents per Y100, up 0.31%. 200 DMA stands above at 99.06, ready to stop it.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.