The Gold Price Rose $2.80 to Close at $1,321.80

30-Jun-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,321.80	2.80	0.21%
Silver Price, $/oz	21.01	-0.07	-0.33%
Gold/Silver Ratio	62.920	0.34	0.55%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0159	-0.0001	-0.54%
Platinum Price	1,481.00	2.50	0.17%
Palladium Price	843.55	0.30	0.04%
S&P 500	1,960.23	-0.73	-0.04%
Dow	16,826.60	-25.24	-0.15%
Dow in GOLD $s	263.71	-0.92	-0.35%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.76	-0.04	-0.35%
Dow in SILVER oz	798.34	-0.02	-0.00%
US Dollar Index	79.81	-0.26	-0.32%

3 Day Gold Price Chart

30 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

30 Day Silver Price Chart

I promised my wife I'd be on time today & she's going to hit me upside the head with a big stick if I'm late, so I'll make this short.

First, I am baffled by the GOLD PRICE today. One of the analytical services I receive sent a special message yesterday about the sudden rise in Commercial Short positions in the Commitments of Traders Reports. Generally Commercials are the "smart money", and when they short, you can prepare your heart (& pocketbook) for a drop. Silver's CoT Commercial Shorts grew even more than gold's.

But in the face of that the GOLD PRICE rose $2.80 to close at $1,321.80, and that Comex close looks like a Potemkin Close because immediately after the close gold shot through $1,326 and remains at $1327.90 in the aftermarket. Painting the tape, Nice Government Men?

The SILVER PRICE gainsaid gold by losing 7 cents to close at 2100.7c. What do I not like about silver? That flag on the chart that looks like it is rising, which is a bearish sign. And it's as overbought as a pretty girl's cake at a county fair bake sale. But if it closes above 2150c, it'll fly.

US dollar index is pushing the gold price up. It lost 26 basis points to 79.81, down 0.33%. Drop started about 10:30 a.m. and breaks through the old downtrending channel line, and support around 80, and the 50 DMA, and it's just a wretched mess. Will sink further, as witness the rising Euro (up 0.32% to $1.3692 & above its 200 DMA & the Yen at 98.69, above its 200 DMA but up only 0.05%.

Stocks finished down on the day but up for the month. Dow lost 25.25 (0.15%) to 16,826.60 while the S&P500 shaved off 0.73 (0.04%) to 1,960.23. Dow in gold and Dow in silver both fell today. At least that indicator isn't welching on us.

Y'all have mercy, my wife is pulling up! Watch for gold tomorrow. A close above $1,331 carries it aabove those COT worries for a while.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Would Not Surprise Me if Gold and Silver Prices Corrected Next Week

	20-Jun-14	27-Jun-14	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.	1,316.20	1,319.00	2.80	0.2
Silver Price, $/oz.	20.949	21.077	0.128	0.6
Gold/silver ratio	62.829	62.580	-0.249	-0.4
Silver/gold ratio	0.0159	0.0160	0.0001	0.4
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	266.17	264.11	-2.06	-0.8
Dow in gold ounces	12.88	12.78	-0.10	-0.8
Dow in Silver ounces	808.97	799.54	-9.43	-1.2
Dow Industrials	16,947.08	16,851.84	-95.24	-0.6
S&P500	1,962.87	1,960.96	-1.91	-0.1
US dollar index	80.41	80.07	-0.34	-0.4
Platinum Price	1,457.30	1,478.50	21.20	1.5
Palladium Price	822.95	843.25	20.30	2.5

3 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

Today silver backed off 3.1 cents to 2107.7 but the GOLD PRICE gainsaid, adding $2.60 to $1,319.00

Over the last year availability of small gold coins has been drying up. I used to be able to pick up the phone and order any number of Mexican 10 or 5 or 2-1/2 or 2 pesos, British sovereigns, Swiss or French 20 Francs, German 20 marks, Dutch 10 guilders, and so on, but not any more. I have to scratch to find any. I know a lot have been shipped overseas to Europe, which says something about what THEY think about the euro's future. These coin's disappearance points to strong demand for gold.

The GOLD PRICE weekly chart rose ever week in June, and now stands above the 18 week and 50 week moving averages, as well as the downtrend line from the 2011 high. All it needs to do now is to close above that March $1,392.60 high. Gold's monthly chart resembles first half of a key reversal, closing at a new low for the move in May but rising this month.

In the near term, the gold price blasted up on 19 June, but stalled at $1,326.50. Would not surprise me if it corrected next week to $1,300 to $1,295. I would buy it there, or buy it if it closes over $1,331.40, for that latter price would signal another leg of the rally.

The SILVER PRICE has traced out a bearish up-pointing flag, and a correction next week might drag it down to 2050c, where I would buy it like the Russians were on Main Street. A close above 2150c would signal a buy, too, and start another rally leg.

Yes, silver and gold prices are all cattywampus to their seasonal chart, rallying when they usually bottom in June, but don't argue with a market. It'll just roll right over you.

Stocks suffered a down week, along with the US dollar index, while silver, gold, and the white metals all rose. It 'pears that stocks are rolling over against both paper money and metals.

Hope springs eternal in the human chest, and nowhere more eternally and mistakenly than in the investing human chest. Take stocks, for example. I reckon them as owns 'em expects 'em to rise forever, but the charts don't agree exactly, or show too much of a good thing.

Monthly Dow chart has risen every moth this year except January, and now is plumb bustin' its head against the overhead trend line. Weekly -- and months are made of weeks, remember -- June's four weeks were tied, one up, one down, another up, and this last un down. Daily Dow chart is rapping on support lines below, to see if it can find a trap door to fall through. Yet I'll give it this, it closed today above its 20 DMA at 16,844.61.

Today the Dow gained 5.71 (0.03%) to 16,851.84. Most of that "gain" (I hate exaggerations) came in the last half hour of trading, which don't smell half fishy. S&P500 scratched up 3.74 (0.2%) to 1,960.96. It looks a leetle bit better than the Dow, but not much.

Here are milestones to watch below. The 50 DMA floats at 16,662.13. Close below that would turn mouth corners down all up and down Wall Street. However, the BIG mark to watch is the uptrend line from the March 2009 low, which today stands about 16,500 and climbeth by end-July to 16,700. Any breach of that line will send rats jumping off the leaky Good Ship Wall Street in waves. They'll look like lemmings come migration time.

I am clean convinced that stocks have indeed turned down against metals, which has worried me like a migraine headache since they broke above the long term downtrend lines in 2013. Now both have turned down, but need more confirmation (as I'll point out later).

Dow in gold rose 0.17% today to 12.81 oz (G$236.41 gold dollars). It's momentum is firmly earthward, since it stands below its 20 and 50 DMAs (13.16 and 12.96 oz), and the 200 DMA lieth not far below (12.53 oz). About 12 oz it breaks the year old uptrend line.

Y'all probably wonder why I bother quoting the Dow in gold both in troy ounces and in gold dollars (G$1=0.048375 troy ounce or 1 troy ounce = $20.6718 gold dollars). It's so you folks can perceive how the world really stands. The 1929 high, back when a dollar of gold still equaled a dollar of paper, was 381.17, so for all the chirping and crowing, the Dow today at G$268.81 equals only 69.5% of its peak 1929 value in gold (G$381.17).

If your yardstick is always changing, how can you measure anything?

After sinking for 15 days running, today the Dow in silver finally rose. I warned y'all it was getting overbought. It rose 1.06% to 806.12 oz (S$1,042.26). It's within a gnat's eyebrow of falling through the 200 DMA at 792.31 oz., and will next week unless silver stages a little downward correction.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are warning y'all that it's time to swap stocks for silver and gold.

Something hit the US dollar index today, although it's not clear to me whether it's the Federal Reserve's firm promise to keep inflating the currency or Bernard O'Bama running around the world sticking knitting needles in world leaders' eyes, trying to start a war. Anyway, it lost 21 basis points today (0.26%). That ducks its head below a support line that stretches back to 2012 but has already been broken earlier this year. Below 80 the next major support appears at 79.40, then the last low at 78.93. Truth to tell, the US dollar index looks puking sick. I'd a whole lot ruther hold silver or gold than greenback dollars, which are only guaranteed certificates of confiscation.

Although the Euro jumped 0.26% to $1.3651 it hasn't been able to mount any rally and still lingers below its 200 DMA ($1.3663). Yes, yes, it might rise if the dollar keeps falling. The yen, on the other hand, gained 0.24% to 98.57 and jumped over the 200 DMA (98.50). If it can close above 99.00 cents/Y100, it will rally.

On 27 June 1893 the New York stock market crashed. By the end of the year 600 banks and 74 railroads had folded. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Lost $6.10 Today Closing at $1,316.10

26-Jun-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,316.10	-6.10	-0.46%
Silver Price, $/oz	21.10	-0.01	-0.04%
Gold/Silver Ratio	62.366	-0.265	-0.42%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0160	0.0001	0.43%
Platinum Price	1,472.10	-3.10	-0.21%
Palladium Price	836.20	1.95	0.23%
S&P 500	1,957.22	-2.31	-0.12%
Dow	16,846.13	-21.38	-0.13%
Dow in GOLD $s	264.60	0.89	0.34%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.80	0.04	0.34%
Dow in SILVER oz	798.28	-0.71	-0.09%
US Dollar Index	80.28	0.00	0.00%

3 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

The GOLD PRICE begun getting hit at about 4:00 a.m. Eastern Time by the sellers, driving it from $1,316 to $1,308. That didn't work, so about 9:00 they hit it again, forcing it to $1,306.80. Buyer's must have had their tongues hanging out watching all this, because after that print gold shot straight square up, finally reaching $1,318, then levelling off the rest of the day for a Comex close at $1,316.10, $6.10 (0.46%) lower.

Same game plan was played on the SILVER PRICE, with just as little effect and a 2080 low. About 9:30 silver came roaring up out of that hole, then traded gently higher until it crossed 2100c. Closed Comex 8/10 of a cent lower at 2110.3.

This is all strong trading, and the silver price will be fine as long as it stays above 2075c - 2050c. The GOLD PRICE is headed higher even if it closes as low as $1,295.

Even under attack, silver and gold prices are proving the resilient strength of their rally.

Y'all are going to mess around and miss buying, waiting for the perfect price.

Stocks broke that support I was talking about yesterday, the top line of a long established rising wedge. Just cracked it like you'd crack an egg shell, but it's cracked all the same. Dow cracked its 20 day moving average, too, but the S&P500 stopped short of that. Dow lost 21.38 (0.13%) to 16,846.13. S&P500 shaved off 2.31 (0.12%) to 1,957. Lower prices a-comin'.

Dow in silver fell again for the fifteenth straight day, and is so oversold I'm beginning to expect some sort of corrective rally. DiS lost another 5 oz (0.62%) to 797.64 (S$1,031.29 silver dollars), a scant six silver dollars from its S$1,023.46 (791.58 oz) 200 DMA.

Dow in Gold bounced up 0.05%, just a little fly-tick, to 12.79 oz (G$264.39 gold dollars). Downtrend is firm and has plenty of room to drop.

Both Dow in metals indicators are pointing to lower stock prices and higher metals prices.

US dollar index today did something unusual: closed unchanged at 80.28. It traded as low as 80.19, and as high as 80.44 around 9:30 a.m. when it tried to rally, but fell back feckless. Only encouragement in this is that the dollar index closed above its 20 DMA and slightly above important internal support at 80.25.

Euro drew near its 200 DMA ($1.3662) yesterday, but fell back today as if it were Kryptonite. No danger the euro will run away starward any time soon. Yen rose 0.11% to 98.31, continuing its baby steps to its 98.51 200 DMA, which it hit today but closed below. A close over that 200 DMA followed quickly by a close above 99.00 would send the yen rallying.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Inched Up Closing at $1,322.20

25-Jun-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,322.20	1.30	0.10%
Silver Price, $/oz	21.11	0.07	0.35%
Gold/Silver Ratio	62.631	-0.156	-0.25%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0160	0.0000	0.25%
Platinum Price	1,475.20	1.30	0.09%
Palladium Price	834.25	2.45	0.29%
S&P 500	1,959.53	9.55	0.49%
Dow	16,867.51	49.38	0.29%
Dow in GOLD $s	263.71	0.51	0.20%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.76	0.02	0.20%
Dow in SILVER oz	798.99	-0.43	-0.05%
US Dollar Index	80.28	-0.12	-0.15%

3 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

The GOLD PRICE inched up another $1.30 (0.1%) to $1,322.20 but stalled still at the $1,226.50 point, as it did yesterday. Silver made good its escape from 2100c by adding 7.3 cents (0.35%) to close Comex at 2111.1c.

I won't be at peace with the SILVER PRICE chart until it resolves that flag formation by a higher close. Otherwise it might be a bearish flag, because it slants up. Another long-legged rise tomorrow removes that cavil. With gold's chart I raise the same quibble.

Ideally the GOLD PRICE would race tomorrow and pierce $1,331.40 resistance, while silver punches through 2150c, better yet, 2180c.

About 12:00 a.m. eastern time, which I calculate about 6:00 a.m. London, while not a lot of folks are trading, some mad dog seller forced silver down instantaneously to 2081c and gold to $1,311. Considering both came roaring back from that body-blow, silver and gold prices performed quite strongly today.

There's another leg up before this rally-ette corrects, I expect.

Rotten day for the US dollar index. It lost 12 basis points to close 80.28, then in aftermarket trading has lost another 7 basis points. The Commerce Department said US gross domestic product fell at an annualized 2.9% in 1Q14, instead of 1% as reported last month. Worst performance in five years. That leaves investors expecting more money printing from the Fed, and hence a lower dollar.

Dollar has broken twice-verified support at 80.20, and traded back up to it, with a low today at 80.09. Messy, messy. Fell below internal resistance line about 80.25, and tried to plunge through the 50 DMA (80.17). All systems set to crash, so somebody better call for the Nice Government men to bail out the dollar.

Euro rose again by 0.17% to $1.3630, but remains beneath its 200 DMA ($1.3630). Crossing above that would confirm it means to rally a while.

Big action came in the yen today, up 0.07% to 98.17, enough to fracture the downtrend line and stretch a hand toward the 200 DMA (98.52). Since February yen has ranged from 99.24 to 96.05, sliding slightly down. A close above 99.24 brings the yen to escape velocity.

The 10 year Treasury Note Yield (a proxy for US interest rates) fell 1.04% to 2.559%. It had traded plumb up to its downtrend line, poked its head through last Friday, but has fallen back below the 20 DMA. Not yet. Interest rates aren't ready -- or able -- to rise just yet.

Stocks stopped at old resistance boundaries they threw over in June, and right near 20 day moving averages. Doesn't say much. Dow bounced up 49.38 (0.29%) to 16,867.51 and the S&P500 scratched up 9.55 (0.49%) to 1,959.53. See S&P500 chart here, http://scharts.co/1jPdnKO, and Dow here, http://scharts.co/1jPdtSI

Both markets have been forming a bearish rising wedge since March, and both threw over the top line of that wedge in June. Now they have traded back to the apex of the wedge, so if they close much below today's low, they will break down and plunge.

Dow in silver kept on falling today while the Dow in Gold went flat. DiS scraped off 0.66% (5.32 oz) to end at 798.80 oz (S$1,032.79 silver dollars). 200 day moving average lies a bare eight ounces lower at 790.87 (S$1,022.54). Dow in Silver is becoming right overbought, a warning sign it might turn and correct.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Closed Higher at $1,320.90

24-Jun-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,320.90	2.90	0.22%
Silver Price, $/oz	21.04	0.13	0.62%
Gold/Silver Ratio	62.786	-0.249	-0.39%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0159	0.0001	0.40%
Platinum Price	1,473.90	15.30	1.05%
Palladium Price	831.80	8.20	1.00%
S&P 500	1,962.61	-0.26	-0.01%
Dow	16,937.26	-9.82	-0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s	265.06	-0.74	-0.28%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.82	-0.04	-0.28%
Dow in SILVER oz	805.08	-5.44	-0.67%
US Dollar Index	80.39	0.06	0.07%

3 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

The GOLD PRICE closed above $1,318 resistance today at $1,320.90, up $2.90 (0.22%). Silver rose 12.9 cents (0.62%) to close above 2100c for the first time during this move at 21.0389.

On five day charts both silver and gold have passed through resistance and begun what appears to be the next leg up. The GOLD PRICE hit a new high for the move at $1,326.60, but remember that April high at $1,331.40 is the hurdle to beat.

The SILVER PRICE really has no fierce barrier until it reaches the February high at 2218c. Many's the observer who is holding back, watching to see whether silver can leap that hurdle. When she does, all those skeptics will turn into fans.

Stepping back from silver's chart for a longer view, it has made what resembles but technically is not an upside-down head and shoulders, with lows at end-June 2013, end-December 2013, and 30 May, but no fireworks will be lit until silver passes above 2218c. That will likely mark the limit of this move, i.e., the first leg of this rally.

Friends, I have checked a lot of other charts, and all of them indicate a certifiable break-out rally. Gold stocks are manic, Gold vs Bank stocks is thriving. Dollar index and stocks are struggling. It all points to the end of the 2011-2014 precious metals correction and beginning of the next rally. I'm not even going to breath or whisper my upside targets for this phase of the bull market, cause if I did y'all would just call me a nacheral born durned fool from Tennesseeand spit.

This morning I remembered that in Memphis, Tennessee when I was a college freshman in 1965, laundering a dress shirt cost 25 cents each, but the cleaner would wash, starch, and hang five shirts for a dollar.

Today it costs $2.50 or more a shirt.

Cheer up, though. I read an article today in the Jamaica Observer that noted in 1989, J$100 could feed a family of five for a week. Today, a pound of chicken costs J$200.

I reckon that socialism puts a big load on a central bank, not to mention the poor -- but somebody has to pay.

Oh, my -- something's happening in markets, and not too many folks are noticing. The tide is turning.

Stocks fell across the board today. Dow Industrials Dover 119.13 (0.7%) while the S&P500 belly-flopped 12.63 (0.64%) to 1,949.98. The Dow stopped dead on its 200 DMA (16,818.79). Closing below 16,700 punctures the 4 month uptrend line. A close below 16,450 pierces the uptrend line from the March 2009 bottom.

S&P500 is holding up a little better than the Dow. It's 1,949.98 close stopped well short of its 1,940.21 20 DMA. The uptrend from 2009 crosses today about 1,790. Stock momentum turned down today.

Oh, my -- how about the Dow in Metals! "Collapsed" is the word that pops into my mind, but that may be a bit extreme. Dow in Gold today stopped at 12.73 oz (G$263.15 dollars), below both its 20 and 50 day moving averages, and only about 2% above its 200 DMA at 12.50 oz (G$258.40). The real test comes about 12.20 oz (G$252.20) where the DiG will meet its uptrend line reigning since August 2013.

And my, Oh, my, that Dow in Silver! Since the 892.99 oz (S$1,154.57 silver dollars) high on 1 June, it has imitated those Mexican cliff divers at Acapulco. You can see a chart here, http://bit.ly/TgEJSV Right now it's more oversold on the RSI than it has been since August 2013, so you'd expect a correction. Dow in silver has smashed all its shorter term moving averages and is closing in on the 200 DMA at 790.02 oz (S$1,021.44). More, it has fallen down out of the bearish rising wedge in place since last year.

At the risk of repeatedly repeating myself, I remind y'all that the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver have proven my most reliable indicators. Now they are shouting that the stocks' three year climb against silver and gold has ended.

Time to swap stocks for metals.

Like Wile E. Coyote hurtling over the brink in a cartoon, the US dollar index windmilled its legs at 80.20 and managed to climb back up on the rocks to an 80.39 close today, up 6 basis points. Range for the last 5 days has been 80.50 to 80.15. A close below 80.30 puts the dollar index at peril of a much longer fall. Today's save, however, inspired little. Closed at 80.39 when the 200 DMA is at 80.38. Triflin'.

Euro rose a nothing 0.2% to $1.3606. Yes, it might be curling up for a rally, but not very likely. It's below its 200 DMA and spent all of may losing from $1.3993 to $1.3503. About the best to expect is a dead cat bounce.

Yen is knocking its head on the downtrend line, but only managing to hurt its head. Lost 0.2% to 98.10 cents/Y100 today. It's building an even-sided triangle, so not hinting which way it will move.

Susan and I had a good time at that wedding in Georgia, but on Sunday we stepped off the asphalt just for a second into some thin grass, and that was enough. We are now serving as bloodbanks for thirsty Georgia red bugs.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Rose Today Closing at $1,317.60

23-June-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,317.60	1.00	0.08%
Silver Price, $/oz	20.93	-0.02	-0.09%
Gold/Silver Ratio	62.95	0.10	0.17%

30 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

30 Day Silver Price Chart

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Rose $42.90 this Week Closing at $1,316.60

	13-Jun-14	20-Jun-14	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.	1,273.70	1,316.60	42.90	3.37
Silver Price, $/oz.	19.637	20.95	1.313	6.69
Gold/silver ratio	64.862	62.85	-2.012	-3.10
Platinum Price	1,437.00	1451.00	14.00	0.97
Palladium Price	813.35	819.00	5.65	0.69

3 Day Gold Price Chart

1 year Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

1 year Silver Price Chart

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Smashed Three Resistance Levels to Close Higher at $1,313.70

	13-Jun-14	19-Jun-14	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.	1,273.70	1,313.70	40.00	3.1
Silver Price, $/oz.	19.637	20.637	1.00	5.1
Gold/silver ratio	64.862	63.658	-1.205	-1.9
Silver/gold ratio	0.0154	0.0157	0.0003	1.9
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	272.27	266.27	-6.00	-2.2
Dow in gold ounces	13.17	12.88	-0.29	-2.2
Dow in Silver ounces	854.29	819.96	-34.34	-4.0
Dow Industrials	16,775.74	16,921.46	145.72	0.9
S&P500	1,936.16	1,959.48	23.32	1.2
US dollar index	80.62	80.42	-0.20	-0.2
Platinum Price	1,437.00	1,476.50	39.50	2.7
Palladium Price	813.35	839.35	26.00	3.2

3 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

Yesterday I suspected silver and GOLD PRICES were ready to explode, but that didn't prepare me for what happened today. The FOMC's announcement yesterday managed to suck the life out of the dollar, and, contradictory as it is, drove stocks up, too.

I am going to enjoy typing this next sentence SO mightily.

Today the SILVER PRICE rose 87 cents (4.4%) to close on Comex at 2063.7c. Treading right on silver's heels, gold leapt $41.30 (3.25%) to close at $1,313.70.

View, O, View, this with a long eye! Both silver and gold prices SMASHED not one but three resistance levels and blew past their 200 day moving averages without even slowing down. Be still, my beating heart!

The great oil man H.L. Hunt said, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." Times like this, you have to grab yourself and imagine what might make it go the other way. After a fierce rally -- depending on how far it runs -- they might collapse back to a low, but a higher low than we have recently seen.

What might cause that? It's not clear how much this rally is being driven by safe-haven demand spawned by events in Ukraine and Iraq. I would say, "Probably not much," because this rise came on the heels of the FOMC's announcement and the dollar's fall. Still, much of this rise could be air from those crises, and that sort of boost quickly deflates.

Not that time for a silver and gold price turnaround is not ripe -- it is, and you're watching it now. Only question is how it plays out in the foreground.

The GOLD PRICE reached it's first tough resistance level, May's $1,315.80 high. In the aftermarket it's trading right there. Tomorrow is Friday, so likely a lot of those New York traders headed home for martinis will sell tomorrow to realize the week's profits, taking it down a little.

What happened? Apparently the market was full of uneasy shorts. Once their buy stop orders were hit around $1,285, gold just kept on rocketing, hitting the next levels of buy stops. Time it stopped, it was $41.30 higher. Silver progressed through the same rout.

Think about the gold chart. Remember that in April and May it traced a long even-sided triangle, then broke out of that in late' may about $1,280. So it fell out of that triangle, bottomed at $1,240.20, rallied steadily through June, and today broke through old $1,285 resistance as well as the apex of that triangle (about $1,290).

Next gold must overcome April's $1,331.40 high, and down the road March's $1,392.60. The big log in the road is last August's high at $1,434. Those are the milestones. Watch for them.

That 2050/2060c level was a high hurdle for silver, support/resistance stretching back more than a year. Silver has oscillated over and under it, and today has vaulted over it, along with its 2049c 200 DMA. Resistance awaits at 2218c (February high), then 2309 (October high), and 2512c (August high).

On the weekly chart today's close takes silver to the 50 week moving average (2065c) and above the 20 WMA (20.11). Silver is already above the major downtrend line from the April 2011 high, but still needs to cross above 2400c to break clean free of all taint of the long correction.

Without discounting the possibility for one more, but higher, low in June, I have metals have screamed in your ear that they are rallying.

Today was a breakout. You BUY the breakouts, in case y'all missed those lows where I was urging y'all to buy. Ain't that just like a nacheral born durn'd fool from Tennessee, to say "I told y'all so"?

S&P500 made its second new high this week, but like the Dow, it's struggling for tiny gains. Dow rose 14.84 (0.09%) to 16,921.46 and the S&P500 inched up 2.5 (0.13%) to its new high at 1959.48. On the other hand, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 dropped a bit.

But all this says practically nothing -- it squeaks, it whispers -- next to what the Dow did against silver and gold. It TANKED.

Dow in Gold plunged 2.68% to 12.88 oz (G$266.25 gold dollars, from G$273.49 yesterday). That took it from its 20 DMA to its 50 DMA (12.91 oz or G$266.87), and through support from a past triangle's top line. Assuming the DiG doesn't turn around and reverse skyward, this leaves behind a double top (Dec - June) which looks like the end to the three year rally of stocks against gold. O, yes, it does.

Dow in silver DOVE 3.56% to 819.52 oz (S$1,059.58 silver dollars, from S$1,098.72) leaving its 50 DMA (853.93) far behind and puncturing its long term uptrend line. Awaiting at 787.45 oz (S$1,018.12) is the 200 DMA. I suppose it could look better than this, but I don't know how without violating natural law and good manners.

US Dollar index sliced through its 200 DMA (80.41), but ended the day right on it at 80.42, down only 11 basis points. At one point it was down 27 bp to 80.24. Dollar index appears to have expended all its fuel and like a rocket, turned its nose down.

As if to verify that, the euro jumped over its 20 DMA ($1.3598) and rose 0.11% to $1.3605. Looks set for a rally at least to $1.3725. European manufacturers must be screaming in pain.

The yen reacted with more reserve, losing 0.2% to 98.1. No traction, no direction.

I'm sending y'all a weekly report today because I have to travel to Rome, Georgia for a wedding tomorrow. God willing, I'll see y'all again on Monday.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.