Tuesday, July 01, 2014

The Gold Price Added $4.60 to Close at $1,326.40

1-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,326.404.600.35%
Silver Price, $/oz21.070.060.29%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.9610.0390.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0159-0.0000-0.06%
Platinum Price1,513.5032.502.19%
Palladium Price855.0011.451.36%
S&P 5001,973.3213.090.67%
Dow in GOLD $s311.010.940.30%
Dow in GOLD oz15.050.050.30%
Dow in SILVER oz947.273.460.37%
US Dollar Index79.840.030.04%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
Today the GOLD PRICE added $4.60 and closed Comex at $1,326.40. The silver price rose 6 cents to 2106.7c.

The GOLD PRICE closed right at resistance/support, where it has stopped several days. This was not a good day, although the Comex chart shows a rise. The all day chart shows gold trading up into a new high for the move at $1,334.90 while it closed lower than yesterday (remember, this is not the Comex chart, which closes at 1:30 eastern time, this is the all day chart). Yesterday's end of day close was $1,327.80, so today's action posts the first half of a key reversal. To confirm that gold must close lower tomorrow. I actually expect gold has considerably more upside left in it, to $1,350 or $1,370 at least, but I just report what the chart says.

The SILVER PRICE did not mirror gold's possible key reversal, but it did close the day lazily about the same place as yesterday. I don't like that or the rising flag on the chart, or the massively overbought RSI, which begs for a correction.

O, jubilate, friends! Happy days are here again. Dow closed at a new high today, up 129.47 (0.77%) to 16,956.07. Nor did the S&P500 lag far behind but rose 13.09 (0.67%) to 1,973.32. All against the seasonal pattern, they are still rising. Y'all just be patient. Stocks are only building up steam for the biggest crash of this century and the last.

So (I believe) do the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver agree with me. both appear to have topped, but both I confess still need confirmation. Having dropped for 25 calendar days, the Dow in silver has hooked up a tiny bit. Closed today up 0.7% to 804.56 oz (S$1,040.24 silver dollars), just above the 200 DMA at 792.32 oz (S$1,025.71).

Dow in gold equivocates more. It rose 0.85% to 12.78 oz (G$264.19 gold dollars). I call it equivocating because unlike silver, which has broken down from a rising bearish wedge formed over many months, the Dow in Gold still hasn't managed to break down out of its rising trend channel.

I await, as I am always awaiting, ore confirmation, but if I owned stocks, which I do not, I would sell them now and put the proceeds into silver and gold.

Just a little footnote here about interest rates. The Ten year Treasury note yield was knocked back two weeks ago when it met its downtrend line, but only made a higher low than May's low. Today it rose, and is building an even-sided triangle which it will meet above about 2.6%. Watch it: the central bankers' hopes all ride on that interest rate not rising.

After breaking down 26 basis points and through two support lines and various moving averages in the days preceding, US Dollar index roared back today with a three (3) basis point rise, almost enough to see if you put your nose right up on the screen. Just looks puking dog sick, and liable to drop to 79.40 whatever Mother Janet and the Nice Government Men do. If it breaks the last low, 78.93, nothing stands below to catch it.

I think they ought to change the name of the Euro to the Gyro to put some meat in it. Euro is just rallying away. Climbed over its 200 dma yesterday and hit its 50 DMA today but did not puncture it. Closed down 0.10% at $1.3679 but 'twill rise higher. Yen has also broken out from its short term down trend and risen above its 200 DMA. Just above about 99 stands the upper boundary of a long even-sided triangle. If the yen can clear that, it can run. Down 0.2% today to 98.58, touching back to its 200 DMA. Nothing negative about that, just went back for a final kiss good-bye.

On 2 July 1836 President Andrew Jackson announced to Congress James Smithson's bequest of 100,000 gold sovereigns (23,540 oz fine gold) to found an institution in Washington.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.