Thursday, July 10, 2014

The Gold Price Climbed Above it's 300 Day Moving Average Closing at $1,338.70

10-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,338.7014.901.13%
Silver Price, $/oz21.460.442.08%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.384-0.588-0.93%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01600.00010.94%
Platinum Price1,516.0010.100.67%
Palladium Price873.050.050.01%
S&P 5001,964.68-8.15-0.41%
Dow in GOLD $s261.20-4.04-1.52%
Dow in GOLD oz12.64-0.20-1.52%
Dow in SILVER oz788.25-19.74-2.44%
US Dollar Index80.170.100.12%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE gobbled up $14.93 (1.13%) to Close Comex at $1,338.70. Silver gained 43.7 cents (2.08%!) to 2145.90. Where does that leave us?

The GOLD PRICE closed above the downtrend line from October 2012, and broke cleanly above the last (April high at $1,331.40, on RISING volume. Pale, weak resistance awaits at $1,350, but at the March peak at $1,392.60 the real test comes. Gold has climbed above its 300 DMA for the first time since February 2013. Could reach $1,402 before it gets winded.

The SILVER PRICE last month cleared the downtrend line from its August 2013 high, and also stands above all its moving averages, including the 300 DMA for the first time since February 2013. Silver is targeting about 2350c.

Remember amidst all the glee that support from safe haven bids tends to disappear as soon as its cause settles down, and those gains are often given back. Still, this looks like the tail end of the rally that began 1 June and it could carry to those higher targets I mentioned above.

In far-off Portugal today all the news concerns the Banco Espirito Santo, one of the country's biggest, which is in trouble. After accounting irregularities were made public in May, the parent company has now delayed coupon payments on some short term debt securities. Stock dropped 19%. Fear of contagion and a string of bank failures poked a gigantic monkey wrench into stock markets' spokes around the world.

Now I ain't no mor'na nacheral born fool from Tennessee, but I remember some furrin bank that failed on 11 May 1931. What was that? Creditanstalt in Vienna. Sent banks falling like dominoes around the world. But that was before we had government safety nets, wasn't it? Nope. In fact, the Austrian bailed out Creditanstalt.

Naww, nothing to worry about today. Central banks have a firm hand on the reins. Yasssir, nothing slips by them boys! Why, just today the boys at the Bank of Portugal said the "solvency situation of BES is solid." Shucks, an official denial like that ought to set your suspicions to rest. After all, nothing is confirmed until officially denied.

Fear shook the trees on Wall Street today. Dow lost 70.54 (0.42%) to 16,915.07 while the S&P500 shaved off 8.15 (0.41%) to 1,964.68.

It's hard to describe this chart precisely to you, so you can look at the chart for the S&P500 at and the Dow at

The Dow spent four months forming a bearish rising wedge within a larger rising wedge. The Dow had broken above the top line of that rising wedge, and now has collapsed back through that wedge's nose, bit into the 20 DMA (16,893) during the day, and hit the larger rising wedge's top line. The S&P500 has broken through the top line of a rising wedge, and now has fallen back through that. Didn't close below its 20 DMA (1,959.41), but sliced into it.

This is a picture of a breakdown.

Most likely target is the 50 DMA at 1,925.40 or 16,740.88. And 'tis also possible stocks won't make it that far, but will turn and reach one more new high before collapsing.

By the way, while y'all are looking at those charts, look how close are the red lines marked "Uptrend from March 2009".

Fear sent investors out of stocks and into gold, and that flight showed plainly in the Dow in Metals today. Dow in gold dropped 1.06% to 12.66 oz (G$261.70 gold dollars) and hath fixed its eyes on the 200 DMA at 12.58 oz (G$260.05).

Owch! Dow in silver dove below its 200 DMA today. Fell 1.88% to 787.85 oz (S$1,018.63 silver dollars). 200 DMA is at 796.35 oz (S$1,029.64). Gravity is pulling HARD on the DiS.

US Dollar caught a safe-haven bid, too. It rose ten basis points (0.13%) to 80.17, still under its 50 DMA (80.21), still under weighty internal resistance, still sick as a hound eating collard greens. Euro lost 0.25% to $1.3607, still flirting with the critical $1.3600 level like a kid playing with matches while sitting on a gas can. The Yen, on the other side of the globe from Portugal's trouble, gapped up to the upper boundary of that long, narrow even sided triangle I've been writing about, but then closed about where it opened. Market can't decide what it wants.

On 10 July 1832 President Andrew Jackson vetoed legislation to re-charter the Second Bank of the United States. Imagine Bernard O'Bama pulling the charter of the Federal Reserve. To state it is to grasp its impossibility.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.