Tuesday, July 08, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,316.00 Down 50 cents

8-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,316.00-0.50-0.04%
Silver Price, $/oz20.970.000.005%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.77-0.03-0.04%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
Yesterday evening shortly before I had finished this commentary, a powerful thunderstorm knocked out our electricity. Susan and I drove home, hoping the power would still be on there, but it wasn't. So instead of finishing this commentary, I got to sit on the back deck with my sweet wife, watching the rain drops drumming on the tree leaves. I enjoyed that more than any commentary I ever wrote.

The GOLD PRICE ended on Comex at $1,316, down 50 cents. Silver closed 2096.7, up an invisible 1/10 cent.

Gold suffered another raid by sellers, but it accomplished little. At the $1,324 high the selling began and within a few minutes had driven gold to a $1,314 low. From which it recovered to $1,320 by day's end. This morning the GOLD PRICE has risen right back up past yesterday's (8 July's) high, and it's trading at $1,326.80. A close above $1,334 breaks gold out of its prison and run higher.

The SILVER PRICE suffered the same bout of selling and instantaneous fall, but from 2120c to 2095c. This morning silver is right back knocking on 2116c.

I haven't checked the 300 day moving averages for a while, but lo and behold! This morning I realize that both silver and gold prices stand above their 300 DMA, since 24 June and 19 June respectively. More than that, the 300 DMA has been acting as a safety net, catching every fall and throwing it back up into the air.

Silver's RSI is shockingly overbought, the MACD and Full stochastics are rolling over, but if it can clear 2133c (last high) today or tomorrow, it will burst through 22 or even 23 before it rests. Likewise if gold can close through $1,334 it will run for $1,350 or $1,370 before correcting. This morning both appear pretty perky.

Stocks tanked today, but other markets were steady. All the stock indices fell. Dow tumbled 117.59 (0.7%) to 16,906.62 while the S&P500 skidded 13.94 (0.7%) to 1,963.71.

Those are nasty falls but as yet say little. Both indices reached for their 20 Day Moving averages, first tripwire of a decline, but both closed barely above them. What makes this interesting? Both are hovering above internal resistance/support lines left from earlier bearish rising wedges. A drop below 16,840 and 1957 and 1937 slices through that support, and threatens a drop toward the 50 DMAs (16,722 and 1,921).

All this is taking place in an utterly complacent market. In a pinch, complacency quickly turns into eye-bleeding panic.

Flat metals and steeply lower stocks took the Dow in Metals down today. Dow in gold bounced down off the resistance line left behind by its April-May flat-topped triangle. Remember, we wan these indicators to drop, because that means stocks are becoming cheaper against meals, or metals are gaining value on stock. Dow in Gold dropped 0.35% to 12.82 oz (G$265.01 gold dollars) and remains below the 20 and 50 DMAs so momentum is down, although MACD is trying to turn up.

Dow in silver has only managed a little dribble of a correction from its late June low at 797.38 oz (S$1,030.96 silver dollars). Today the DiS slipped

0.23% to 804.58 (S$1,040.26). It is rising off a strongly overbought Relative Strength Index and an MACD that wants to turn up.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.