Friday, September 19, 2014

Gold Price Tumbled $10.40 to End Comex at $1,215.30, down 0.8%

12-Sep-1419-Sep-14Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,229.901,215.30-14.60-1.2
Silver Price, $/oz.18.54617.7810.765-4.1
Gold/Silver Ratio66.31668.3482.0323.1
Silver/gold ratio0.01510.0146-0.0004-3.0
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)285.52293.928.402.9
Dow in gold ounces13.8114.220.412.9
Dow in Silver ounces915.97971.8155.846.1
Dow Industrials16,987.5117,279.74292.231.7
US dollar index84.2484.860.620.7
Platinum Price1,372.001,338.80-33.20-2.4
Palladium Price836.05812.35-23.70-2.8

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE tumbled $10.40 to end Comex at $1,215.30, down 0.8%. Silver took the gas, losing 67.1 cents (3.6%) to end at $17.781c, a new low for the downmove since March 2011.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO gapped up today to 68.348. Either it is pointing to a low in silver and GOLD PRICES, or signaling a huge fall coming in both.

Gold/Silver Ratio Chart
In 2008 and 2009 silver traded out to a triangle. The apex of that triangle is about where silver traded today (a little higher). It is not uncommon for markets to trade back to that apex, so mayhap that's what we are witnessing. Next support below $17.50 is $14.65.

The SILVER PRICE has broken to a new low, but not gold. In June 2013 silver hit $1,179.40, then in December $1,181.40. That is the most likely goal for this fall, but given how oversold both silver and gold are, and how overbought the US dollar, gold might also stop here. Also, gold is punching into its long term uptrend line from 2003, so this is serious. Silver remains above the analogous uptrend, which today comes in about $17.40. Good place to stop.

This morning a friend sent me a comment from Bill Fleckenstein mentioning that he and a friend were starting to get gold hate-mail, and hate-mailers have an uncanny ability to signal turning points.

I tucked that away in my head as probably quite accurate, then my webmaster, who filters out my email, later mentioned that I had gotten several of the same. It's amazing what low-life, mean, and hurtful things people will say by email, when they known they are beyond the reach of your punching them in the nose. But the chief point is that these chickens usually launch their emails at turning points.

The week was wretched for silver and gold, but kind to stocks and especially the US dollar index. Stocks are stretching the cellophane envelope of reality.

Stocks are flashing all sorts of non-confirmations. Today the Dow rose 13.75 (0.08%) to 17,279.74 (a new high) but the S&P500 fell 0.96 (0.05%) to 2010.40. S&P500 still couldn't close above that internal resistance line I mentioned yesterday,

Whew! Dow in Gold rose 0.84% to 14.20 oz (G$293.54 gold dollars) and grows overboughter every day. Looney overbought.

Dow in silver rose above that upper resistance line 3.87% to 968.38 oz (S$1,252.05 silver dollars). More overbought than the Dow in Silver. If this isn't the peak, then silver's gonna drop a lot more and stocks rise.

US dollar index rose 47 basis points (0.55%) basically rose as much today as it fell yesterday, plus change. Hovering above the long term resistance line but tremendously overbought.

Why do I keep talking about "overbought"? Because it can't last forever. It's a sign that a turn is coming, but it can persist long enough to make you pull your hair out and leave you balder than a pool ball.

Euro lost another 0.65% to reach a new low at $1.2834. Yen fell again, 0.25%, to 91.79. Here both are severely, grotesquely oversold.

Ten year treasury note yield fell back today to 2.587%. It remains close to breaking out through its downtrend line, about 2.800%.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.