Tuesday, September 23, 2014

The Gold Price Rose $4.20 to $1,221.00 on Comex

23-Sep-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,
Silver Price, $/oz17.710.010.08%
Gold/Silver Ratio68.9320.1830.27%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0145-0.0000-0.27%
Platinum Price1,334.202.500.19%
Palladium Price815.2512.351.54%
S&P 5001,982.77-11.52-0.58%
Dow in GOLD $s288.76-2.98-1.02%
Dow in GOLD oz13.97-0.14-1.02%
Dow in SILVER oz962.90-7.36-0.76%
US Dollar Index84.790.000.00%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart

The GOLD PRICE rose $4.20 to $1,221.00 on Comex. Silver rose a piddling 1.4 cents to $17.713. Both closes belie today's underlying strength.

On a five day chart gold has made a rounding bottom. Today it came up out of that bowl about 5:30 a.m. with a break through $1,225 and rose in steps to $1,237 by 8:30. Rest of the day it backed off, down to $1,220 again at noon. Rest of the day it oscillated between $1,220 and $1.225.

The GOLD PRICE today pierced but did not quite close above its downtrend line in place since September began. It has barely moved up from grotesquely oversold, and other indicators appear to be turning up. Today's gains were confirmed by rising volume.

The SILVER PRICE made a V-bottom at $17.33 before Monday's market opened in the US. Since then it hasn't traded below $17.60. Today I opened strong and ran to $17.99 about 8:30 a.,. It fell off that rise and spent the rest of the day riding $17.75 - $17.80. As long as silver holds above $17.60 we can presume it has reversed upward.

Unlike the gold price, the silver price has not yet crossed above its downtrend line that began late in August. It needs a price above $18.25 to accomplish that.

I got to thinking about that GOLD/SILVER RATIO. It gapped up three days ago, and today rose once more to 68.932. That corrects 70.8% of its rise from the April 2011 low. A 75% correction would lift it to 71.06. A drop in that ratio below 67.5 would help confirm a reversal upward for metals.

I may be foolish, but I bought both silver and gold today. Considerable amount.

Friend of mine called today to point out that the premiums on some storage scheme silver has reached the point where you can swap that for physical and roughly break even. If you are in one of those schemes and your silver has a 5 or 6% premium, you can almost break even swapping to physicals.

Oddly, the 5 day US dollar chart shows highs above 84.80 on Wednesday 17 September and Monday 22 September, with a big drop until noon today and a high lower than yesterday's. That leaves behind what looks like a double top and beginning of a reversal. Needs to close below 84 to confirm that reversal. Today it closed unchanged at 84.79.

Japanese Yen tried to rise today but was slapped back. Lost 0.06% to 91.83 cents/Y100. Euro played by the same script, rising strongly early but closing near the bottom of its range for a 0.01% loss to $1.2846.

Stocks had a rough day, following through downward after that nose cone top. S&P500 lost 11.52 (0.68%) to 1,982.77. Dow sank a hefty 116.87 (0.68%) to 17,055.87.

S&P500 is all negative today. It dropped way below its 20 DMA (1,998.04) and isn't too far from its 50 DMA below that (1,976). RSI has turned negative, along with MACD and full stochastics.

Dow today closed below its 20 DMA (17,104.21). RSI at 50.45 didn't quite close below 50, but the MACD and Full Stochastics turned down. Gravity will control of the next big move, and that right soon.

Both the Dow in Gold and Dow in silver have plunged sharply. Dow in gold shrank today by 1.33% to 13.94 (G$288.16 gold dollars). RSI has moved down from grotesquely overbought to merely overbought. Must close below that December high at 13.80 (G$285.27) and then the 20 DMA at 13.68 (G$282.79) to confirm a downturn.

Dow in silver dropped 0.9% to 959.81 oz (S$1,240.97 silver dollars). 20 DMA awaits at 909.03 oz (S$1,171.43). Remains grotesquely overbought.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.