Wednesday, December 31, 2014

The Gold Price Ended the Year at $1,183.90 Down 1.5 Percent for the Year

31-Dec-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,183.90-16.30-1.36%
Silver Price, $/oz15.56-0.67-4.16%
Gold/Silver Ratio76.0622.1582.92%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0131-0.0004-2.84%
Platinum Price1,208.90-9.20-0.76%
Palladium Price798.40-5.80-0.72%
S&P 5002,058.90-21.45-1.03%
Dow17,823.07-160.00-0.89%
Dow in GOLD $s311.201.470.47%
Dow in GOLD oz15.050.070.47%
Dow in SILVER oz1,145.0737.743.41%
US Dollar Index90.620.330.37%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Please keep this last commentary for the year, since it has yearly closing prices if you want to update your own portfolio.

The GOLD PRICE lost 1.4% or $16.30 to close at $1,183.90 on Comex. Silver lost all yesterday's gains and then some, 67.5 cents or 4.2% to $15.565.

Lo, I will not speak of the Invisible Hand belonging to the NGM, no, not but this once, for it lieth crossways in my craw. In 1997, The gold price closed the year at $292.50; in 1998, $289.20; in 1999, $291.50. What do y'all think the chances are in nature, that any market would close three years running within $3.30 of itself? Sure, sure. And how neat, to whack gold right at year end to close it below last year? Clever as a junk yard rat.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO probably wrecked my hypothetical diamond from yesterday, but that's not sure yet. It did bounce to a new high close at 76.062.

Why concern myself with that? Because if that ratio gets away skyward, it'll run like a helium balloon toward 84, the high we saw in the 2008 panic. That implies an unhappy world on all sides.

The gold and SILVER PRICE are churning back and forth over the same range, from $15.50 to $16.50 and $1,180 to $1,205. This doesn't say anything, but it also doesn't say anything strong. It's talking out of both sides of its mouth, like the man who killed his parents then threw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan.

All we can do is set boundaries. If silver closes below $15.53, it will drop much further. If gold drops below $1,170, there will be more downside.

But let's wait and see what happens when the New Year opens. To you all I wish a blessed 2015, and, as the Germans say, a "good slide" into the New Year.

Here's performance for the year. First number is close on 31 December 2013, second number is close on 31 December 2014, and the third number is percentage change.

Dow, 16,539.58 vs. 17,823.07, up 7.8%

S&P500, 1,844.72 vs. 2,058.9, up 11.6%

US$ index, 80.084 vs. 90.620, up 13.2%

Gold, $1,201.90 vs. $1.183.90, down 1.5%

Silver, $19.339 vs. $15.565 , down 19.5%

Platinum, $1,371.10 vs. $1,208.90, down 11.8%

Palladium, $717.15 vs. $798.40, up 11.3%

West Texas Intermediate Crude, $98.70 vs. $53.71, down 45.6%

Res ipsa loquitur. The thing speaks for itself.

For the third day (for the Dow) and second day (S&P500) stocks slid, right heavily today. Dow lost 160 (0.89%) to 17,823.07; S&P500 dropped 21.45 (1.03%) to 2,058.90. Year end selling might underlay those drops, so maybe they don't mean too much -- but they are, after all, drops.

Dow in metals clawed back yesterday's losses. Dow in Gold added 0.54% to G$311.32 gold dollars (15.06 troy ounces). Dow in Silver jumped 3.37% to S$1,477.28 silver dollars (1,142.58 troy ounces). Both remain in Gator Jaws tops, which are making good their reputation for wearing out watchers with frustration and gnashing of teeth.

US Dollar index keeps on edging up, no doubt now receiving some boost from folks fleeing euros and the looming euro crisis in Greece. After everybody sobers up next year, that will be the crisis demanding their attention.

US dollar index gained 33 basis points (0.37%) to 90.62. Euro is at two year lows and new lows for the move. Lost another 0.5% today to end at $1.2097. No turnaround in sight. Yen lost 0.19% to 83.55 cents/Y100. Has a tiny uptrend going, but 'tain't much.

Well, Duke the 114 year old Chocolate Labrador Susan and I have been babysitting for my daughter-in-law like to killed both of us. Day before yesterday Susan let him out to, well, to do his business. Fifteen minutes or so later she went outside: NO DUKE. She called. She searched. She went from one fence to the other and to the road: NO DUKE. I came out. I called, I searched, I came up Duke-less. Susan had an appointment and had to leave. I searched and called more, but no Duke.

We were both sick. We've been praying he wouldn't kick the bucket on our watch, while we are babysitting him, and here he goes and vanishes altogether! How are we going to break this to Victoria? We can't even show her the grave.

Susan drove home, dreading what she might find. Was Duke somewhere along the road, smashed beyond recognition? Had he wandered off into the woods? Been eaten by coyotes?

Nope, he was lying in front of the door, waiting to go in where it was warm. He may be old, but he has worn my nerves plumb out!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Silver and Gold Prices May Have Turned Around Pivoted on the 1st December Lows, the Gold Price Rose $18.50 to $1,200.20

30-Dec-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,200.2018.501.57%
Silver Price, $/oz16.240.503.16%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.904-1.158-1.54%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01350.00021.57%
Platinum Price1,218.1016.401.36%
Palladium Price804.20-7.80-0.96%
S&P 5002,080.34-10.23-0.49%
Dow17,983.01-55.22-0.31%
Dow in GOLD $s309.73-5.81-1.84%
Dow in GOLD oz14.98-0.28-1.84%
Dow in SILVER oz1,107.33-38.47-3.36%
US Dollar Index90.29-0.24-0.27%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Some deep-pocketed buyer stepped up to the New York gold market today about 10:00 with a big order about $1,187.50 and the GOLD PRICE immediately traded up to $1,200. It backed off a hair, then shot to $1,210, although it gradually dipped to close at $1,200.20, up $18.50 (1.6%).

The SILVER PRICE followed the same pattern, rocketing from $15.90 to $16.10 at 10:00 a.m., then made a run for $16.49. Closed Comex up 49.7 cents (3.2%) at $16.24.

What does this action tell us? That sellers under $1,200 are about as rare as sommeliers at a WCTU convention, or, alternatively, butchers at a vegan culinary assembly. Lo, that's an important piece of information, because it implies that the gold price is running out of sellers altogether at these low prices. True, gold couldn't throw a leg over $1,205 resistance, but that's okay. $18.50 for one day ain't bad.

What caught my eye was silver's outperformance today. The GOLD/SILVER RATIO sank from 75.057 yesterday to 73.904 today, down 1.5%. Look, I'm no mor'n a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, but looks to me like there's a diamond pattern in the gold/silver ratio, and that's a topping pattern. a close below 72:1 breaks the ratio down out of that diamond, and today's low was 72.53. A fall out of that diamond would powerfully confirm gold and silver have bottomed. Chart is here:

On a four month chart, the gold price today broke above its very short term (from the December high) downtrend line. Also closed above its 50 day moving average ($1,195.80) and 20 DMA ($1,199.81). Today's move also fits into my upside-down head and shoulders pattern for gold I discussed yesterday.

Silver's $16.24 close remained below its $16.32 50 DMA and $16.27 20DMA. Still, it poked its head above and closed above the downtrend line from the July 2014 high.

Right here at the end of the year we may have seen the turnaround for silver and gold prices, pivoted on the 1 December lows.

The trouble in Greece is wearing on the Euro. It closed flat today, well, up 0.01%, at $1.2158. That pot won't stop simmering. Even the Japanese Yen caught a safe haven bid -- the yen, imagine that! -- and rose 0.98% to 83.70 cents to Y100. Meanwhile, in a move that would astonish anybody with more than three brain cells, the US dollar index dropped 24 basis points (0.27%) to 90.29. Why astonishing? Bad as the scrofulous dollar is, the yen is even worse, thanks to recently re-elected Keynesian Abe's determination to depreciate it.

For the second day running something indigestible gave US stocks heartburn. The Dow lost 55.22 (0.31%) to 17,983.01; S&P500 dropped 10.25 (0.49%) to 2,080.34. Stocks are already in Cloud-Cuckoo Land anyhow, so I don't look for much reason there.

In case y'all have missed my overall stock outlook, here 'tis: they are setting up for a gigantic crash, having been levitated to their present altitude by nothing more than a cloud of hot new money.

Much to my gratification, the Dow in Gold fell 1.76% to G$309.66 gold dollars (14.98 troy ounces), continuing to move down from its encounter with the Gator Jaws' overhead boundary. Time to start thinking about the 20 DMA (G$305.94 or 14.80 troy ounces) and how stylish the DiG will look below that mark.

Dow in Silver lost 3.19% to end at S$1,428.53 silver dollars (1,104.88 oz). 20 DMA isn't far away at S$1,412.05 (1,092.13 oz). Eventually the Gator Jaws will snap shut.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Today the Gold Price Lost $13.60 to End at the Equivocal $1,181.70

29-Dec-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,181.70-13.60-1.14%
Silver Price, $/oz15.74-0.37-2.28%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.0570.8701.17%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0133-0.0002-1.16%
Platinum Price1,201.709.600.81%
Palladium Price812.00-1.20-0.15%
S&P 5002,090.571.800.09%
Dow18,038.23-15.48-0.09%
Dow in GOLD $s315.553.321.06%
Dow in GOLD oz15.260.161.06%
Dow in SILVER oz1,145.7225.212.25%
US Dollar Index90.530.210.23%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Silver and GOLD PRICES moves over the last week displayed, as I warned y'all, not a lick of sense.

The GOLD PRICE took no safe heaven at all, but the yield on US government treasuries sank, indicating bond prices were rising because somebody is buying them. Merciful heaven! What kind of world do we live in where the scrofulous US dollar looks like a safe haven?

Silver and gold trading over Christmas week made no sense at all. Down $16.20 on the 22nd, down $1.80 on the 23rd, Down $4.40 on the 24th, up $21.80 on the 26th. That looks like floor traders pushing a thin market around. And today the gold price lost $13.60 (1.1%) to end at the equivocal $1,181.70, a price that blows hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth. The SILVER PRICE lost 36.8 cents or 2.3% to $15.744. These are about the prices posted on 19 December.

But looking at the chart, they may make some sense. Gold might -- might -- be forming an upside-down head and shoulders with a right shoulder bottom at $1,183, and a left shoulder bottom about 1170, and the bottom of the head at that $1,130.40 intraday low on 1 December. Neckline runs from $1,255 through the last peak at $1,239 and today stands about $1,230. If that is what gold is up to, it should take another two to three weeks to round out the shoulder and reach the neckline. A close below $1,170.70 invalidates this pattern. Here's a picture of that:

Meanwhile the gold price stands below its 20 ($1,200.31) and 50 ($1,196.54) day moving averages, and the path of least resistance is down. Thus if it holds on here and keeps rising, my upside down HandS makes more sense.

Silver, too, remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages ($16.28 and $16.34). No sign it intends to go anywhere. Yes, you have two lows separated by a spike low, but no successful upward force yet.

In other words, both silver and gold prices look just as sorry as they looked this time last year, right before they went on an upward tear that lasted till March.

Stocks have been eking out new highs day by day, without much meaning. Today the Dow lost 15.48 (0.90%) to 18,038.23 while the S&P500 made a new high at 2,090.57, up 1.8 (0.09%). This hovering to new highs only shows that the sellers are all on vacation. Now it might be that after the adults come back after New year stocks might make significant new highs, although they look so tired and are carrying so many inward signs of exhaustion that doesn't seem likely to me. Or, it might just be that all the pure fiction of a "recovering economy" might begin to evaporate, like the mental hoarfrost it is, in the harsh sunlight of economic reality. I have in mind, of course, the hash the Fed has made of the US economy by keeping alive the vampire businesses that ought to have had wooden stakes put thru their hearts two or three panics ago. When the Fed tries to "normalize" interest rates, skeletons are liable to come tumbling out of closets.

Dow in gold hit overhead resistance near the old low, bounced down, then up. Ended today at G$315.24 (15.25 troy ounces), up 1.03%. Chart on the right:


Dow in silver is tracking along with gold, sawing back and forth. Both remain in a Gator Jaws pattern, which eventually will snap shut and send them both plunging. Dow in silver chart is on the left:

Greece is falling apart again, but in this Best of All Possible Worlds nobody seems to notice. Greek Prime Minister called elections for next month, but it looks like the socialists will win, who threaten to back out of austerity measures and probably default on some of the debt. Strategic question is, will they withdraw from the euro, or will the Germans keep on passing them dough to keep them in the euro and to keep European banks solvent?

Speaking whereof, the US dollar index today traded up 21 basis points (0.23%) to 90.53. All these little daily gains have pushed the US dollar index back up into the rising wedge it once tried to fall out of. Chart on the right:

Wow, what wondrous markets. Breakouts that start but never finish, collapses that mysteriously reverse, markets that just never can seem to advance. What? What do you mean, Nice Government Men's fingerprints?

Euro sank to a new low, $1.2152, down 0.41% but no evidence of a panic out of euros. Probably too late to panic anyway. Yen closed down 0.32% at 90.53 cents/y100. Probably getting ready for the next plunge. Abenomics, which is the same old Keynesian folly, ain't working for the economy but it is gutting the yen jes' fine.

I'll never forget a remark the late Harry Browne made to me in 1993 when I was interviewing him for Silver Bonanza. We were talking about the gold and silver runs in the 1970s, and he made this point: "It's the preceding government price suppression that really drove those markets, years and years of suppression. The price snaps back all at once." Corollary is, that the longer gold and silver are suppressed, the greater the eventual snapback.

Eventually the snapback will come. Be patient.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $4.10 Closing at $1,173.80

24-Dec-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,173.80-4.10-0.35%
Silver Price, $/oz15.69-0.04-0.25%
Gold/Silver Ratio74.812-0.070-0.09%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01340.00000.09%
Platinum Price1,189.209.600.81%
Palladium Price807.40-1.20-0.15%
S&P 5002,078.587.890.38%
Dow18,068.4844.250.25%
Dow in GOLD $s318.201.880.60%
Dow in GOLD oz15.390.090.60%
Dow in SILVER oz1,151.595.740.50%
US Dollar Index89.96-0.40-0.44%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.