|Gold Price, $/oz||1,096.50||10.90||1.00%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||14.59||0.12||0.81%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||272.24||-5.17||-1.86%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||13.17||-0.25||-1.86%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||989.49||-16.83||-1.67%|
|US Dollar Index||96.61||-0.73||-0.75%|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
Remember Friday I was watching the first half of a key reversal in the End of Day chart, but the GOLD PRICE did not close the EOD higher today, so that reversal was not completed and verified.
But look at this. Gold's new commitment of traders reports shows large speculators (the dumb money) with historically low long positions and commercials (the smart money) with barely any shorts.
Silver's CoTs look bullish, too. Commercials have few shorts and large speculators few longs. Also bullish.
On the 5 day chart the gold price shows a rounded bottom with a surge up through $1,090 on Friday, a rise to $1,105 today, then a plunge to test $1,090 support -- a test that gold passed, and rose to end the day about $1,095. Unless the price of gold breaks $1,090, Friday was the bottom.
The SILVER PRICE chart also shows a low Friday, but a V-bottom, a higher high early today with a test of $14.55 -- also passed. Silver must hold $14.40. (Remember it's much more volatile than gold).
None of reading markets is metrically precise, it's an art. That's why I try to give you a band of prices that both confirms and explodes any forecast. As long as we don't break $1,090 and $14.40, Friday was the low. I already bought on Friday, so I'm set. What about y'all? Bear in mind that when markets turn around, those universally scorned rise all the faster.
Ever wake up like Rip Van Winkle wiping the cobwebs from you eyes and wondering what on earth got hold of you? I feel that way today, looking at markets. What on earth have I been thinking about? Stocks have rolled over. That May high was most likely the high for the entire bull phase (spawned by the Fed's QE). The present deflationary scare will pass, the dollar will fail and resume its downward progress toward zero, and central banks will surely shoot their only weapon: the inflation gun. And one more thing: the goofs in central banks and governments who believe they are Masters of the Universe, ain't. Gravity still works, truth will avenge itself economically on corrupt politics, and chickens still come home to roost. (What was that stuff those little men gave me to drink while we were bowling?)
Ponder stocks. No longer can the damage be hidden. The Dow lost another 127.94 (0.73%) today to 17,440.59 and has traced out a gigantic rounding top. Today's close was lower than July's earlier low close (17,466). It is trading way below its 200 day moving average (DMA, 17,750). There's another little internal broadening top traced out since March, and the Dow is about to break down out of that. Owch! I forgot to mention that the Dow is now 384.5 points below its 2014 close, and 871.4 points below its 19 May high.
S&P500 today lost 12.01 (0.58%) to 2,067.64. Skidded to a halt today three points from its 200 DMA (2,064.13). Still 9 points above its 2014 close. After it breaks that 2,039 March low, the fleas will begin jumping off the rats and the rats will be jumping ship.
|Dow in Gold|
Dow in gold has retraced nearly all its "throwover" final top. That took it to 16.504 oz but today it closed at 15.91 oz. Working off an oversold RSI, falling Rate of Change, overbought stochastics, and a downturning MACD. Chart on the right.
What about the Dow in silver? The throwover there was less than gold's, but it, too, has plunged, from 1,236.37 oz to 1,201.97 today.
US dollar index tumbled again today, right badly, down 73 basis points (0.75%) to 96.61, cutting through its 20 DMA (96.89). Will drop further. Maybe by mid-August its tank will have finally run dry.
Not that the euro offers any more solace or safety. If the US dollar's sorry as a three-legged mule, what about the euro? It's a three-legged twenty-eight-pede! Gained today 1.06% to $1.1090. That is above its 20 DMA, at least, but until the euro crosses $1.1150, it hasn't even begun to rally. Yen gapped up on dollar weakness, too, plus 0.38% to 81.11 cents/Y100 (Y123=US$1).
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.