|Gold Price, $/oz.||1,163.00||1,157.70||-5.30||-0.5|
|Silver Price, $/oz.||15.537||15.468||0.069||-0.4|
|Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)||315.15||317.13||1.98||0.6|
|Dow in gold ounces||15.25||15.34||0.10||0.6|
|Dow in Silver ounces||1,141.15||1,148.20||7.05||0.6|
|US dollar index||95.29||96.17||0.88||0.9|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
Sounds like somebody doesn't want to go home for the weekend without some silver and gold.
One item I left out of my discussion of the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver above. They address my apprehension that silver and gold prices might plunge to the $1,000 or $8.00 some analysts keep thumping for. If stocks moved higher, then the DiG and DiS could only maintain that top Gator Jaw if metals, too, moved up in step with stocks. Being stalled at their highs for eight months whispers loudly that stocks aren't going much higher, at least, not higher against silver and gold. Mathematically it's also possible that stocks might drop while metals drop, too, but then I'll play the metals seasonal low card. That seems to halt that possibility.
I suspect I see the invisible hand of Bogusness in this week's closes. At Comex close both silver and gold prices were down slightly for the week, but in the aftermarket they were up strongly, slightly higher than last week's closes. Nevertheless, the tape is painted with down weeks for both. Likewise the Dow ended with an "up week" by 30.30 points after spending most of the week taking on water and running the bilge pumps. S&P500 finished flat. US dollar index was strong as a garlic milkshake all week, so had to be tempered on Friday.
Those Nice Government Men must think we all fell off a turnip truck. Let me brush these hayseeds off my shoulder.
The media, who report "all the news that fits," tell us today that stocks rose on hopes of a European deal on Greece's debt this weekend. If so, that's the triumph of hope over experience, as Dr. Johnson said of a man's remarrying soon after the death of a wife to whom he had been unhappily married. The Greeks have the Euros over a barrel now. The Euros over the past few years have shifted the debt from the banks to the taxpayers, and now the taxpayers, through their governments, will take the hit if Greece defaults. Not good for politicians when taxpayers find out how they've been shafted.
Anyhow, the Dow rose 211.79 (1.21%) to 17,760.41 while the S&P500 climbed 25.31 (1.48%) to 2,076.52. Today's closes bring both averages back above their 200 DMAs.
I talked to my friend Al Thomas today (www.mutualfundmagic.com), author of "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It." Al is one of those men you listen carefully to because his knowledge comes from experience. He is expecting one last rise in stocks, and reminded me that the sell signal comes when the market moves through a DOWNTRENDING 200 DMA. The stock index's 200 DMAs are almost flat, but still rising and not yet falling. Yes, yes, Al's book most certainly is worth buying, reading, and studying.
|Dow in Gold|
|Dow in Silver|
Both charts have been unable to penetrate that top Gator Jaw and advance. Now their 200 DMAs are pushing up on them, leaving little room to fall without strong consequences.
Dow in Gold ended today up 0.84% at G$315.66 gold dollars (15.27 troy ounces). Dow in Silver lost 0.16% today to end at $1,474.82 silver dollars (1,140.68 oz). That comes after the DiS pierced the upper Jaw Tuesday with a rise to$1,531.27 silver dollars (1,184.34 oz), a new high punching through that line. It just as quickly fell back within the gator jaws.
Why am I so concerned with this? Because the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are the most reliable indicator for that shift in investor mood from confidence to lack of confidence in the financial system. And that, dear friends, is what drives silver and gold up. So when the DiG and DiS confirm they have turned down and resumed the bear market for stocks against metals that began in 1999 and 2001, we can be sure that gold and silver nominal prices have turned up. And, of course, pinpoint the time to swap stocks for silver and gold.
You there, in the back! I see you dozing! Sit up, pay attention. I'm not a politician, so I have no easy answers.
Euro rose 1.16% to $1.1160. That leaves it still broken down out of an even sided triangle and looking nasty. The Yen's masters slapped it winded today, down 1.21% to 81.42 and once again below that range that held it from December to May.
Bond yields gapped up today, whereas earlier in the week they gapped down. This is some kind of volatility, with the yield closing above the 20 DMA. Since bond prices fall when yields rise, this implies those flighty investors who fled euros and other investments because of Greece had backbone transplants last night. I'm sorry, I just don't buy it. 'Tain't nat'ral. Charts on the left.
Both Copper and Crude appear to have turned up after vicious drops earlier in the week. Whether that is lasting or temporary is not yet clear.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.