Silver and Gold Prices: April 2016

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1265.50 up $16.50 or 1.30%

28-Apr-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,265.50	16.30	1.30%
Silver Price, $/oz	17.55	0.27	1.54%
Gold/Silver Ratio	72.096	-0.171	-0.24%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0139	0.0000	0.24%
Platinum	1,048.90	24.80	2.42%
Palladium	624.60	14.20	2.33%
S&P 500	2,075.81	-19.34	-0.92%
Dow	17,830.76	-210.79	-1.17%
Dow in GOLD $s	291.26	-7.29	-2.44%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.09	-0.35	-2.44%
Dow in SILVER oz	1,015.82	-27.88	-2.67%
US Dollar Index	93.68	-0.69	-0.73%

I sat staring at the silver chart yesterday, wondering why it was saying it wanted to go higher. Today I found out: samurai central banker!

It seems the market expected Bank of Japan head criminal Kuroda to take interest rates further into negative-land. Instead, Kuroda left them unchanged. In the market's mind, this equaled an interest rate rise, meant the yen was not going to depreciate to toilet paper, and the dollar was not going to shoot the moon. Here's what it looked like: http://schrts.co/UuqBFa

Samurai central banking caught everyone by surprise. The Yen, which had fallen down out of a rising wedge and was playing footsie with its 50 day moving average, promising to fall mightily, shot back up inside the wedge, rising 3.03% in a market where daily moves are normally measured by nano-percentages.

The Euro didn't move much, up 03% to $1.1358, but the US dollar took it personally. Very personally. Look: http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

US dollar fell 69 basis points (0.73%) to lodge at 93.68. That took it below the bottom border of the month long trading range and pretty well wrecked beyond repair the earlier break out from that (green) falling wedge. Last low was 93.62. Any close below that is liable to precipitate a free fall. Below 92.50 there is only -- AIR. Clouds. Not enough support for a hummingbird to perch on.

Let me be clear, speaking without forked tongue: US dollar is teetering on the lip of an escarpment whose bottom is a massive 13 points lower. Should the dollar fall off that lip, it will send silver, gold, & commodities soaring.

Stocks didn't like anything about today. In Japan, where the Nipponese version of Quantitative Easing has left the BoJ owning almost all Japanese government bonds, 40% of all stock ETFs, and untold other stocks, Kuroda's announcement that the BoJ would stop buying all that sent the Nikkei 225 down 3.61%.

In the US, Apple has fallen from 104.35 two days ago -- Mercy, 112.10 on 14 April! -- to 94.83 today, a modest 9.1% loss in two days. Carl Icahn fired tear gas into the panicked crowds when he disclosed he'd sold his Apple shares. That, combined with the rubber bullets out of Japan implying an end to free central bank money for speculation, spooked the mob into stampeding. Dow fell 210.79 (1.17%) to 17830.76. S&P500 plunged 19.34 (0.92%) to 2,075.81.

I can't remember where I heard it, but somebody said yesterday stocks were floating on borrowed time. Today their creditor came calling.

Oh, and just LOOK at that Dow in Silver! http://schrts.co/ohwLZP

'Tain't going any direction but down, and this leg now started will be a BIG one. DiS ended at 1,013.11 oz. Below all the moving averages, below the uptrend line from the 2011 low, below, below, below. When it breaks 991.46 (last low), why, a waterfall will become the Gulf Stream.

Dow in Gold is no slouch, either. http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc

Gold's lethargy compared to silver has slowed the DiG, but today its downward flight bumped into the uptrend from the 2011 low and the 50 DMA. Closed at 14.06 oz, down 2.79%, and will be cheaper tomorrow.

Silver leapt 26.7¢ (1.54%) to 1755.3¢ on Comex. Gold vaulted $16.3 (1.3%) to $1,265.5 Gold/Silver ratio fell today from grossly oversold to even-more-grossly-oversold, & stopped at 72.096.

I'll be switched. Much as indicators and time scream they ought to correct, silver & gold act like markets beginning to break out skyward. Of course, both have been tanked up with central bank rocket fuel, so that casts doubt.

Here's a gold chart, http://schrts.co/hLQF2d

Gold's MACD turned up today, as did the rate of change. It pulled away upwards from its intertwined 20 & 50 DMAs, and jumped BACK over the uptrend line from the January low. It did everything, in fact, except close above the last high ($1,272.40), & didn't miss that by much. If gold gets above $1,287.80, the March high, it'll be gone like a lean hog in a ripe cornfield, and you'll never get it back.

At its 1769¢ high, silver was exactly three cents off its last high at 1772¢. It is straining at the leash, ready to run. http://schrts.co/zsmR7J

It's also as overbought as antimacassars at an old ladies' convention. Can it go higher? Yes, but it is surely bucking expectation.

Bottom line: Today is either one monstrous trap for gold and silver bulls and both markets are going to turn and burn tomorrow, OR both are fixing to break out to new rallies that will see 1850 and $1,350 before June closes her pretty doors.

But whether that rally comes tomorrow or next week, 'tis coming SOON.

MISTAKE: Yesterday's commentary contained -- I know this'll astonish y'all's dentures right out of your mouths -- a mistake. Dennis Hastert was not sentenced to 15 years in prison but 15 months. Y'all are so picky. I was only off by a factor of twelve.

Y'ALL ARE GOING TO LOVE THIS! Here's how the Italians solved their banking crisis, and thumbed their nose at Mario Draghi & the ECB. Italian banks have 360 billion euros in bad loans, most in Europe, but here's the solution. All the banks contribute 5 billion euros to a bailout fund called "Atlas" (get it? Bears the weight of the banks on his shoulders.) The bailout fund will buy new stock issued by the troubled banks, AND will buy loans from troubled banks.

Now this is exceptionally bad math, even for bankers. The bailout fund is exactly 1/72 of the bad loans. This ain't even smoke and mirrors, its just smoke, from a little bitty match. POOF!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1249.20 up $7 or 0.56%

27-Apr-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,249.20	7.00	0.56%
Silver Price, $/oz	17.29	0.18	1.05%
Gold/Silver Ratio	72.267	-0.351	-0.48%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0138	0.0001	0.49%
Platinum	1,024.10	5.20	0.51%
Palladium	610.40	5.15	0.85%
S&P 500	2,095.15	3.45	0.16%
Dow	18,041.55	51.23	0.28%
Dow in GOLD $s	298.55	-0.83	-0.28%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.44	-0.04	-0.28%
Dow in SILVER oz	1,043.71	-7.99	-0.76%
US Dollar Index	94.46	-0.08	-0.08%

Forgive me, I left something out of my recommendation of the movie, "The Big Short." Watch out. It's filled with bad language & some nudity. Not for anybody but adults, absolutely no children. I recommend it not for you to adopt the speech or lifestyle depicted. but for the portrayal of pure blinded greed, as well as an unrelenting resolve on the other side to pursue truth, and even integrity. "The Big Short" is a warning picture of where unrestrained greed ends. Also, one reader tells me it is available for free on YouTube.

TODAY'S MARKETS:

Janet the Toad opened her mouth wide today, but nothing came out save flies & lies. More croaking about somewhere, someday raising interest rates, a little piping about the economy "moderating," and wheezing lies about how well the economy is faring. None of this act moved markets. Stock indices barely rose, and several just sank further. US dollar index fell, deprived of any interest rate transfusion. Gold stumbled, picked itself up, and stood back straight. At day's end the FOMC announcement was, "A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Dow Jones Industrial average rose 51.23 (0.28%) to 18,041.55 & the S&P500 gained 3.45 (0.16%) for a close at 2,095.15. Meanwhile the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 dropped (0.51% and 0.82%). Stocks are floating on borrowed time. Watch out below!

10 year treasury note yield fell, which makes sense. If the Fed doesn't intend to raise rates, bond prices must rise and the yield, which had floated higher in hope, must now decline.

Fed's refusal to raise rates also made the US dollar less attractive, knocking down the US dollar index. It fell 8 basis points (0.09%) to 94.46 barely below the 94.51 twenty day moving average, but below nonetheless. It is now bouncing in a range bounded by 95.20 and 93.85. It's stuck. Got to beat those numbers up or down to break the paralysis.

Euro rose 0.12% to $1.1312, reacting to the dollar's little loss. Yen has more troubles. Fell 0.15% to 89.67 today, and is about to step through its 50 DMA (88.50) into the wild blue yonder below.

Silver closed Comex 18¢ (1%) higher at 1728.6¢. Gold added $7.00 (0.6%) to $1,249.20.

Gold did close above resistance/support at $1,245, but didn't run away. High came at $1,252.80, low at $1,240.70. Some see-sawing occurred around the time Janet the Toad croaked, but gold quickly recovered. Don't get the wrong idea: "recovered" doesn't imply any particular enthusiasm or strength. MACD & Stochastics are negative, RSI barely breathing. If it plans to move higher immediately, it's keeping it a secret.

Frankly I am at a loss to explain silver's strength. The RSI is extremely overbought and all other indicators are stretched like a rubber band around the Sunday New York Times. It is ripe for a correction, & a substantial one ought to arrive before next week ends.

Add to that the Gold/Silver Ratio, not painfully oversold, with what looks like a breakaway gap beginning the fall and an exhaustion gap more than a week ago.. The ratio, too, looks ready to correct

Monday, April 25, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1238.90 up $10.20 or 0.83%

25-Apr-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,238.90	10.20	0.83%
Silver Price, $/oz	17.01	0.11	0.65%
Gold/Silver Ratio	72.855	0.134	0.18%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0137	-0.0000	-0.18%
Platinum	1,016.70	6.70	0.66%
Palladium	606.45	-0.70	-0.12%
S&P 500	2,087.79	-3.79	-0.18%
Dow	17,977.24	-26.51	-0.15%
Dow in GOLD $s	299.96	-2.94	-0.97%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.51	-0.14	-0.97%
Dow in SILVER oz	1,057.17	-8.39	-0.79%
US Dollar Index	94.81	-0.28	-0.29%

Listen up! Go rent & watch the movie, "The Big Short." Don't wait, do it tonight. Naïve folks miss the point who watch it and say, "Why did so few people catch on that real estate and mortgages were in a bubble?" . Looking at that parabolic price graph for real estate, plenty of people caught on. Why didn't Wall Street catch on? Because they were making so much money. They could see, but they willed not to see. Go watch the movie.

First three days of this week will fester under the loathsome toadstool cloud of a Fed meeting and a Bank of Japan meeting in the same week. That will squelch markets, & make their intentions & direction opaque. Yea, Buddy, we need those stabilizing central banks! A country without a central bank is like a cockroach without a tuxedo.

Stocks hiccupped, nose underwater all day long. Dow ended 26.51 (0.15%) lower at 17,977.24. S&P500 coughed up 3.79 (0.18%) to fall to 2,087.79. What can Mrs. Toad, Janet, croak from beneath her toadstool that can fix a brokenstock market? It is laboring, struggling, drying up. She will mumble about maybe raising interest rates & croak out more double talk from both sides of her wide mouth, but the Fed is too scared to do anything drastic, like raising rates..

US dollar index spoke out of both sides of its mouth today, too. Backed off a big 28 basis points (0.28%) to 94.81. Remains above the 20 DMA (94.55) so remains positive, but take-off to a rally is like watching an airplane kids made out of a stuffed camel & cedar boards struggling to lift off the runway.

Interest rates (proxied by the 10 year US treasury note yield) have risen to their highest point since March, and the highest in April. Rose 0.74% to 1.902% today, but that's a long ways from any meaningful hurdle, although it is above the 50 & 20 day moving averages. 200 DMA stands at 2.073 and the downtrend line from 2007 is at 2.25. http://schrts.co/vUJO4G

Gold bounced back today, up $10.20 (0.83%) from Friday's Comex close to $1,238.90. Silver edged up 10.9¢ (0.64%) to 1700.5¢.

None of this scratches y'all's itch or mine. Little old one day bounce within a trading range answers no questions, raises no presumptions, and whoever acts on it does so at his own risk.

Looking at this chart, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR it is plain that until gold conquers $1,287.80, the March high, you can't say it is rallying again. Likewise, it can fall as low as $1,218 without breaking the lower boundary of its 2-1/2 month range. Proverb says that bull markets try to shake of as many riders as possible. They do that with terror. What would terrorize gold investors? A drop to $1,192, the heel of the trading range, a smidge greater than a 38.2% correction. Gold may be lining up to do just that, since it closed today smack on its intertwined 20 & 50 DMAs.

However, gold won't spend more than one or two weeks in this correction, so that implies it will be shallow. If it offers you any dips, better hop on and buy fast.

Silver's chart, http://schrts.co/CqZ2b5 , is overbought on its indicators, and ripe for a correction. The bunched trading of the last five days, coming atop a strong advance in April with a pause in the middle to tap through that upper range boundary, also looks toppy. But whatever correction silver sees doesn't promise much. Might reach 1660¢, or in a terror 1591¢.

Both silver & gold remain steadfastly, stubbornly strong, adding yet another assurance to the conclusion they bottomed in December 2015.

I find myself in need of asking another favor from y'all. I am going to undergo surgery on 6 May for a hammertoe. Yes, I know, laugh because it sounds ridiculous, but it hurts seriously. I would very much appreciate y'all's prayers for a successful surgery and healing. Thanks in advance.

Friday, April 22, 2016

This Week saw [Probably] Saw a Short Term Peak in Silver and Gold Prices

	15-Apr-16	22-Apr-16	Change	% Change
Silver Price, cents/oz.	1,630.90	1,689.60	58.70	3.6
Gold Price, dollars/oz.	1,233.10	1,228.70	-4.40	-0.4
Gold/silver ratio	75.609	72.721	-2.887	-3.8
Silver/gold ratio	0.0132	0.0138	0.0005	4.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	300.04	302.90	2.86	1.0
Dow in gold ounces	14.51	14.65	0.14	1.0
Dow in Silver ounces	1,097.40	1,065.56	-31.83	-2.9
Dow Industrials	17,897.46	18,003.75	106.29	0.6
S&P500	2,080.73	2,091.58	10.85	0.5
US dollar index	94.69	95.08	0.39	0.4
Platinum	988.50	1,010.00	21.50	2.2
Palladium	569.30	607.15	37.85	6.6

This week saw [probably] saw a short term peak in silver and gold prices. Wow. Even coming back off the peak silver gained 3.6%. Stocks limped and scraped higher. US dollar index turned around. Platinum is running, and palladium is boiling over.

US dollar index cleared the 20 day moving average (94.61) and jumped 51 basis points (0.54%) to 95.08. See the picture at http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

For the moment, the dollar index has pulled back from the brink of death, but 'twill need to keep climbing to prove its merit. Next ditch across the road is 95.20, then 96.42 (previous high). If the dollar makes it that far, it will face the 98.60 March high.

At stake here is the dollar's future. Can it get through 100 and keep rallying? Yes, of course, the dollar's move will affect gold & silver. However, I think we are approaching the stage where even a rising dollar can't depress metals.

Euro took the occasion of dollar strength to gap down and fall 0.54% to $1.1225. Whatever competition the dollar's going to get for King of the Fiat Currency Dung Heap, it won't be coming from the lame & limping euro. On rumors the Bank of Japan would take interest rates further into negative territory, paying banks to borrow, the yen dove 2.1% to 89.44, an enormous fall. Here's the chart, http://schrts.co/Z3Fvb7

Yen today fell down through the rising wedge's bottom boundary. Will probably take a trip all the way down to the 200 DMA (now 84.31).

Oil, taking WTIC as proxy, rose again today. Look at it, http://schrts.co/KvfGnd It broke out above the downtrend line, ran to the 200 DMA, pulled back to the line, then rose through the 200 DMA & remains there. However, credibility requires it close above 45. Meanwhile it has built a rising wedge that might promise another bloody tumble. Copper has poked its head through a downtrend that began in August 2014, and stands above its 200 DMA. It closed today at $2.27. Any close above $2.25 is hopeful, but still about 65¢ below its long term downtrend line.

Ponder monthly & weekly charts for precious metals. If the trend month over month & week over week is not rising, then the trend is down. Obvious, but easily overlooked.

Behold, gold's weekly chart, http://schrts.co/zecBlu Gold broke jumped through the downtrend from the October 2012 high in February. It kept rising, then cleared the top channel boundary that has ruled it since September 2013. Above is the 200 week moving average at $1,327, and higher still, above $1,450, the downtrend from the August 2011 high. It's making progress.

Gold's monthly chart, http://schrts.co/WU6cr7 Also shows a breakout through the downtrend from the October 2012 high, out of a falling wedge. Progress.

Look at silver's weekly, http://schrts.co/Vn4K54 It has broken through the long term downtrend line. Ditto for the monthly, http://schrts.co/dIquep

Today silver fell 19¢ (1.1%) to 1689.6¢. Weaker gold backed down $20.30 (1.63%) to $1,228.70. The gold/silver ratio fell another 0.5% to 72.721. Since 6 April it has fallen 10.8%. Better enjoy it while you can, because it's silver, it's volatile. Here's the ratio chart, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy

After hitting an (end of day) high in February at 84.38, the ratio formed an even-sided triangle. It gapped down out of that triangle, targeting 72.50, then gapped again & hit 72.44 at the intraday low. First target reached. Next is below 65, but not until after a correction that will reach for 78, maybe only 76. Sure, a gold and silver correction has begun, but I expect it to be short and shallow. This forecast is a work in progress, so don't use it as a rope to swing over hell on.

Y'all look at silver's chart, http://schrts.co/CqZ2b5

Silver hit my short term target, 1765¢, yesterday, breaking into new high ground but closing lower. On the Comex chart silver completed the second half of a key reversal today by closing lower than yesterday. A lower close Monday clinches that beyond all quibble. Silver should find abundant fans and buyers around 1625¢, but might terrorize all of us by falling to 1600¢ - 1585¢, about where it will strike that long term downtrend line.

I speak clearly: silver has only barely begun to rise. Much more time & power is left in this rally. What began today is only a brief intermission to work off a badly overbought state.

Take a look at this gold chart, http://schrts.co/u55e7Z

Gold has been hugging that uptrend line from the January low, and today put its foot clean through the floor. Also fell through the 20 & 50 day moving averages.

Gold was slung up out of a bowl, marched ahead strongly, then mired down in mud up to the axle. Needs to work off this pessimism by scaring all the natives. A close around $1,200 ought to do that, and about the time they're all shriekin' & scurryin', gold will turn 'round. Don't get rattled, it's okay. Markets correct, especially after strong advances. Again, I expect this correction will not hang around long, so you bargain hunters get ready to run down into the basement and buy, buy, buy. Whatever low this correction shows, that will be the last trading at that price, and then gold will scoot for the moon.

In June 1991, nearly 25 years ago, I interviewed John Exter, one time central banker & one of the greatest gold bugs of the 20th century. Re-reading that interview today, I was struck by his amazing prescience. You can find the article, "Simplex Munditiis," at http://bit.ly/1WLrIP7 Note carefully what he has to say about a debt collapse.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Gold Price Closed Down $4.20 or -0.34%

21-Apr-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,249.00	-4.20	-0.34%
Silver Price, $/oz	17.09	-0.05	-0.26%
Gold/Silver Ratio	73.101	-0.053	-0.07%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0137	0.0000	0.07%
Platinum	1,030.60	3.90	0.38%
Palladium	611.00	13.00	2.17%
S&P 500	2,091.48	-10.92	-0.52%
Dow	17,982.45	-113.82	-0.63%
Dow in GOLD $s	297.62	-0.88	-0.29%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.40	-0.04	-0.29%
Dow in SILVER oz	1,052.47	-3.88	-0.37%
US Dollar Index	94.58	0.12	0.13%

My friend Catherine Fitts came over for supper once and brought me a bag of buttons she used to hand out as Assistant Secretary of Housing: NO WHINING. I suggest Congress' best use of tax dollars right now would be to buy 175 million NO WHINING buttons & hand one to every other person in the US of A. Are y'all sick of whiners whining about how they didn't get this or that or how put upon they are because somebody somewhere in the Universe looks down on 'em?

Ought to say the same thing to 'em my wife Susan used to say to our seven kids: "Is it bleeding or is the bone sticking out? If not, go back and play."

21 August 2016 probably was the day when stocks turned down. They failed today twice at the unchanged line, then sank, sank, sank beneath the waves, deeper & deeper all day -- glurg! Was today a government holiday? Wonder why no Nice Government Men stepped in at 3:30 to jack up the market? Probably their coffee break.

On disappointing earnings news the Dow rolled downhill 113.82 (0.63%) to 17,982.45. Owch! Hurts morale it couldn't hold on above 18,000. S&P500 tumbled 10.92 (0.52%) to 2,091.48. By the way that little down-tweak today sufficed to break that rising wedge's bottom boundary on the Dow & S&P500 charts. Portentous, that.

I missed catching y'all up on Crony Capitalism in Operation. Goldman Sachs came out day before yesterday, the last of the big five to report, & announced much lower earnings. What happened? Why in the Crazy Crap Shoot that is today's stock market, Goldman stock rose, along with the bank stocks index ($BKX). Sure, makes sense to me. Today though that BKX hit its 200 day moving average, which I surmise from the way the BKX shrunk back was made of Kryptonite. Another reason to suspect stocks have turned down. At the same time, the Gold:BKX spread turned up. (It's a fraction, remember, with Gold on top and BKX on bottom. Further BKX falls, higher the fraction climbs.)

Also neglected to mention a few days ago Goldman paid the yankee government $5 billion to cure its wrongdoing in the mortgage bubble debacle that launched the 2008 financial crisis. It sure pays for capitalists to have cronies in Washington. D'y'all notice that hyperactive Obama "Justice" department jes' never could get motivated to send any HUMAN PERSON to jail, let alone bankers? Corporations, which have no body to jail and no soul ot damn, are lashed with "civil fines" that claw back a pitiable pittance of what they stole by fraud. And no hot breath of a prosecutor ever fogs the necks of CEOs & their ilk. It's nice to have cronies running the "Justice" system. In all fairness, 'twould have been the exact same outcome if the other crony party had been in power. From Credit Mobilier to the Whiskey Ring to Teapot Dome to the 1980s S&L Crisis, Republican hogs are just as adept at sticking their snoots in the trough as Democratic ones.

Wild day in markets, thanks again to the stabilizing influence of central banks. ECB's head felon, Mario Draghi, held a press conference announcing the ECB's interest rate intentions. ECB did nothing, kept interest rates low. No new "stimulus" measures were announced. Whenever I see that word "stimulus" it reminds me of somebody wanting to dose a passed out drunk with whiskey as a "stimulant." Their stimulants won't work any better for the economy central banks have made puking drunk with debt.

I don't know what folks in currency markets expected, but the US dollar index tanked from 94.6+ about 5:00 a.m. right down to 93.92 just before 9:00 a.m., then even a little faster bounced up to 94.70 by 11:00. However, it ended the day up only 11 basis points (0.12%) at 94.58. That brought it up enough to touch, but not hold, the 20 DMA at 94.67.

Y'all look, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

Every one of those big range days (all but one big losses) with blue arrows were caused by central bank announcements. Dollar index is stalking the lip of a volcano, & if it gets lower than 93 - 92.50 will fall over into the molten lava. Situation won't clear until the dollar index either closes above 95.20 or below 92.50.

Think on the market proverb: double bottoms hold, triple bottoms don't. This is the dollar index' third touch below 94.

Silver fell only 4.5¢ (0.3%) to 1708.6¢ while gold fell $4.20 (0.3%) to $1,249, but those closes don't near about tell the story of the havoc central banking wreaked in metals markets today.

Silver advanced and reached 1771.5¢ (or 1778¢, according to whom you believe) about 11:a.m. About 12:00 (Eastern) it plunged within an hour to 1675¢, then turned and climbed above 1700¢, finishing at 1708.6¢. Chart's here, http://schrts.co/CqZ2b5

Who do you listen to? On the Comex chart today marked a key reversal's first half: trade into new high territory with a lower close. However, that doesn't show on the end of day chart, which closed higher. Volume last three days has been huge, and hugest today. Yet the RSI is way overbought, as is are the MACD and Rate of Change. I mention in passing that today fulfilled my 1765¢ target based on a breakout from the trading channel.

Gold chart is right here, http://schrts.co/ZWY4A4

Gold likewise bounced up and down. About the same times it fell from a $1,272.40 high to a $1,244.40 low. Challenging that last high at $1,264.70 & failing looks puny to poisoned.

Gold's indicators have fallen way behind silver's. RSI is stuck in mid-range, barely positive. MACD is barely positive. Rate of Change the picture of sloth. All you can say is, Gold's just hanging on. As with silver, so gold's Comex chart shows a key reversal's first half, but not the End of Day chart.

Ratio fell again today, from 73.154 to 73.101. Not much, but fell. Reached my first target at 72.50 yesterday.

Seems a lot to ask for, more gold & silver gains immediately, without any rest.

On 21 April 1836 General Sam Houston, a Tennessean, leading an army larded with Tennesseans, defeated Mexican General Santa Anna at the Battle of San Jacinto in a fight that lasted only 18 minutes. The Texians captured Santa Anna next day, and later he signed a peace treaty withdrawing the Mexican army. In effect, the Battle of San Jacinto established Texas' independence.

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Price of Gold Closed at $1253.20 up $0.20 or 0.02%

20-Apr-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,253.20	0.20	0.02%
Silver Price, $/oz	17.13	0.16	0.96%
Gold/Silver Ratio	73.154	-0.691	-0.94%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0137	0.0001	0.94%
Platinum	1,026.70	12.70	1.25%
Palladium	598.00	14.80	2.54%
S&P 500	2,102.40	1.60	0.08%
Dow	18,096.27	42.67	0.24%
Dow in GOLD $s	298.50	0.66	0.22%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.44	0.03	0.22%
Dow in SILVER oz	1,056.35	-7.63	-0.72%
US Dollar Index	94.47	0.52	0.55%

I'd better make this quick today, because I can feel the bile a-risin'. I should never have read the news.

Stocks continued to levitate mysteriously & without the slightest ground in reality. Dow added 42.67 (0.24%) to 18,096.27. S&P500 nanometered up 0.16 (0.08%) to close at 2,102.40. (A nanometer is a measurement equal to one billionth of a meter, used primarily to measure the brains of central bankers & presidential candidates.)

Both indices have formed a second rising wedge, which, as I'm sure y'all are tired of hearing, usually resolve earthwards. Not long, not long, and 'twill dive.

US dollar index finally turned back from the jaws of death & rose today, 52 basis points (0.56%) to 94.47. This pulls the dollar index back from the brink, but it still must rise through the 20 day moving average blocking its road at 94.74.

Dollar index doubled bottomed yesterday and today about 93.95. Remember that number, because trading lower will suck the dollar index down into the Maelstrom. Safe for now.

Silver today fought its way through the blockade at 1700¢ to close Comex 16.3¢ higher at 1713.1¢. Today's 1725¢ high bettered yesterday's 1711¢. In blistering trading gold closed Comex at $1,253.20, twenty cents higher than yesterday.

Ratio fell 1% to 73.154. We need to bear in mind that yesterday's ratio low at 72.49 may have fulfilled the target for this first leg down. That in turn implies silver might head down.

Yet silver, for all gold's lagging, won't slow down. Probably has 1750¢ - 1765¢ in it, which would take it to the May 2015 high. But the breather that silver pauses for there or here won't end the upmove by any means. Something north of 1800¢ is in silver's sights.

Gold behaved badly today. Barely increased its intraday high to 1,259.80. Ended the day up only twenty cents, then tanked in the aftermarket ten bucks to $1,244.10. Still, as long as it doesn't crash through this level it won't tank.

Sellers have drawn their line in the sand at $1,260, hence gold must burst through that barrier. Needs to work up substantially more gumption to do that.

Appears there's a leetle more rally left in the silver price, and gold price will tag along.

A reader wrote, "You are quite frequently saying to buy now. I am curious. When, if ever, have you said to sell?"

Answer: NEVER, because that time hasn't come yet. It will come when the gold/silver ratio reaches 16:1 or lower. Then it will be time to sell. Till then, y'all ought to shake off the spell of government, central bank, and Wall Street liars and listen to history's witness: NEVER ONCE has an episode of fiat money inflation ended without destroying the currency UNIT. I am buying silver & gold for the LONG term, at least another five years.

I am looking out my window at our sheep flock. They've had 30 lambs so far, and 20 have been ewe lambs. We borrowed a black-headed Dorper ram for our white Katadhin ewes, and the progeny are startling: all black, piebald black and white, black bellies, you name it. Mercy! I could watch 'em for hours. That's the kind of stock I like.

A reader heard two men on an internet radio show say, "Few people even want 100 oz silver bars." My unqualified response to that is, "They don't know what they are talking about." Since May 1980 I have bought and sold THOUSANDS of 100 oz. silver bars with no trouble. They have their place & use, just like silver rounds & 90% coin. This categorical MISstatement often comes from dealers who tell you not to buy anything but silver American Eagles, because that's the easiest thing for them & suits their inventory, never mind the customer gets 10% less silver. HOGWASH. Over time, premium always disappears.

Every once in a while appears an insightful & concise article that makes me think, "That's exactly what I want my readers to see." Here's one by Jack Perry, "The End is Not Near, It has Begun." Sound analysis of a possible future. Go to https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/04/jack-perry/end-not-near/

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Silver Price Closed up 4.42% at 16.97

19-Apr-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,253.00	19.40	1.57%
Silver Price, $/oz	16.97	0.72	4.42%
Gold/Silver Ratio	73.845	-2.074	-2.73%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0135	0.0004	2.81%
Platinum	1,014.00	37.60	3.85%
Palladium	583.20	14.15	2.49%
S&P 500	2,100.80	6.46	0.31%
Dow	18,053.60	49.44	0.27%
Dow in GOLD $s	297.85	-3.86	-1.28%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.41	-0.19	-1.28%
Dow in SILVER oz	1,063.98	-44.04	-3.97%
US Dollar Index	94.03	-0.43	-0.46%

Stopped scratching my scalp about what silver and gold prices will do & just dropped my jaw all the way to the counter when I looked at markets this morning early: Silver over 1700¢. I put down my phone and grabbed something out of the icebox. Durn! I thought, that looked like 1704¢. That can't be right.

Oh, yes, it was right, and gold was up over $22.

As of today, silver has climbed 23.2% since 2016 began, and gold has risen 18.2%. Now I'm just a durned ol nat'ral born fool from Tennessee, but when I look at the Dow up 3.6% for the year, and the S&P500 up 2.8%, & the Nasdaq Comp down 1.3%, why, it almost looks to me like silver & gold have been a better investment than stocks. Y'all have pity on a fool: tell me what I'm missing.

Before I leave this topic, look at what the gold stock indices have done since 31 Dec 2015: GDX, + 69.5%; GDXJ, + 82.3%; XAU, + 83.2%; HUI, + 86.4%.

D'y'all ever see those silent movies where the villain ties the heroine to the railroad tracks while the train is jes' a-barreling down on her? Well, that pretty well pictures the US dollar index. It is that close to being run over, and it ain't getting up.

Closed today at 94.03, down another 43 basis points or 46%. Folks is getting' mighty nervous about that 94 level. Last low was 93.62, & 92.50 ought to show some support, but below that it's a clear elevator shaft to 80.

Rub is, the Dollar index broke out of that falling wedge, but bailed & failed at the 20 day moving average. Look, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

A day or so of backing up after a breakout is tolerable, but three days, and sinking back below the breakout? Well, it just looks tacky. Betrays a want of breeding, white-trash shamelessness, not to mention puniness abounding.

Euro rose 0.46% to $1.1364. Just proves that the world contains a whole PASSEL of bigger fools than me. Yen dropped 0.34% to 91.60.

Stocks continue to levitate. Dow traced out a graph that looked like the Valley of Fatigue in that old mattress commercial, but never mind: friends stepped into a drowning market around noon and threw it a life preserver. Dow gained 49.44 (0.27% to 18,053.60. S&P500 added 6.46 (0.3%) to 2,100.80.

Dow in Silver hath fallen off the cliff, bounced on the ledge, & fallen again. http://schrts.co/ohwLZP Today lost 45.6 oz (4.11%) to close at 1,063.73 oz. Behaving like greasy bathtub water when you pull the plug.

Dow in Gold is tamer, down only 1.35% today to 14.39 oz. Just be patient.

At today's Comex close silver was 71.9¢ [sic] or 4.4% higher. No, that ain't a bug on your phone screen, that a 7. Ended at 1696.8¢. Gold popped $19.40 or 1.6% for a $1,253.00 close.

Don't y'all know, if this was clear and easy, everybody would do it, & we'd all be living on the French Riviera, sipping fine wine & smoking $40 seegars. But 'tain't never that clear.

Take gold, for instance. http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR

Today's rise earns respect, and busted through that $1,245 resistance like it was eggshells. However, it hath not exceeded the last ($1,264.70) high, let alone the March $1,287.80 high. With silver gone berserker today, well, gold looks a mite lazy. Slothful. Juberous ("dubious" to you northerners.) Its fundamental as keeping motor oil in a car engine that silver & gold ought not gainsay each other. Okay for a few days, but not long, hence gold must move.

Listen to my words: silver has cleared its downtrend line from the April 2011 high. Broken out. Jumped 4.4% in one day so y'all couldn't miss it. Looky here, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR

Whoa! Don't miss that surging volume. Can this go on? It ought to reach 1764¢ at least, and before it's all done, 1875¢. I feel crazy saying it, crazier still looking at that overbought MACD, Stochastic, RSI. But when anything breaks out of a channel upward, you can pretty well flip the channel over for a target. In other words, if the channel is 140¢ high, you can add that to the breakout point, and 1625¢ + 140¢ = 1765¢. But all that overbought-ness means y'all have to keep looking around for a quick, sharp correction. I feel like an economist now, cause I am about to say, "On the other hand." OTOH, overbought can get overboughter, and in bull markets surprises come to the Upside.

That Gold/Silver ratio chart bumfuzzles me, too. Look, http://schrts.co/rGnpnj

First of all, the ratio was trading in an uptrending channel (green lines). It had already walked through its uptrend from the April 2011 low back last August. Even if you adjust that uptrend line, the ratio has still broken down.

Next it formed an even-sided triangle, and collapsed. With gaps, that now look like runaway gaps (but that could be slowing down after that second gap). Target from that triangle measures 72.50, give or take a hundredth. I can measure it another way -- I'm sorry, y'all forgive me, I just have to tell y'all even though I know y'all will laugh at me for a fool -- and get a 65.40 target.

I'll be durned if it don't look like silver is running hotter than gold this year. Did anybody see that coming? Anybody swap gold for silver back when the ratio was 83 instead of today's 73.845? Naw, I ain't never heard sech a thang.

Y'all, it's time to get down off that fence and BUY silver & gold. Not later, NOW.

My brain must have taken a trip to the next county. Ty Bollinger is showing the 9 episodes of his documentary, "Cancer, the Quest for the Cure." Tonight Episode 8 shows at this link at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time. I meant to tell y'all.

Everybody ought to watch this -- everybody. I watched all nine episodes by myself, but Susan and my son Zachariah & his wife literally spent an entire Saturday watching it, and when I got home at 6:30 were just opening episode 9.

Every single one of you ought to watch this, and buy the whole series like Susan and I did.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Gold Price Closed up $0.50 or 0.04%

18-Apr-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,233.60	0.50	0.04%
Silver Price, $/oz	16.25	-0.06	-0.37%
Gold/Silver Ratio	75.919	0.310	0.41%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0132	-0.0001	-0.41%
Platinum	976.40	-12.10	-1.22%
Palladium	569.05	-0.25	-0.04%
S&P 500	2,094.34	13.61	0.65%
Dow	18,004.16	106.70	0.60%
Dow in GOLD $s	301.70	1.67	0.56%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.59	0.08	0.56%
Dow in SILVER oz	1,108.02	10.62	0.97%
US Dollar Index	94.47	-0.22	-0.23%

I don't say this every day, but every so often it needs saying.

There ain't much gold & silver in the world. Viewed against history, gold & silver are insanely undervalued. I saw an article today by a famous economist who claimed that to back (really back, not gold plate) the US dollar with gold would call for a price at $10,000 an ounce.

Whoa!! Slap your face. Forget the fear & greed & be sober. The door into the silver & gold markets is surpassingly narrow & the lintel quite low. Large crowds cannot simultaneously press through. You must pass through BEFORE the crowds arrive.

We sell a LOT of Austrian 100 coronas. Why? Because they are so much cheaper than other gold coins (except Mexican 50 pesos). I can sell them cheaper than one ounce gold bars, and who wouldn't rather have a coin than a cheesy bar? Besides, over time premium always disappears, so dollars spent on premium today will not return when you sell at market peak. (Did your dealer bother to tell you that? Or was he too busy taking orders? Or was he a website? Maybe you ought to call us.)

Lately Austrian 100s are teaching me again that there ain't much gold & silver in the world. They're the lowest cost buy on the market, and they've vanished. Can't find 'em.

Always get the most gold and silver you can get for your money. Compare this: On a $40,000 purchase today, buying Austrian 100 coronas nets you 0.9475 ounce more gold than American Eagles, or 0.723 oz. more than Krugerrands.

At market peak, nobody will care what KIND of ounces you have, only HOW MANY. Over time, premium always disappears.

TODAY'S MARKETS:

Somebody ought to pour some salt on that US Dollar Index, slug that it is. It broke upside out of a falling wedge last week, then acted like a roach facing a can of Raid at the 50 DMA. Headed for the woodwork. Today it fell again, 22 basis points (0.23%) to 94.47.

Mighty lot of teetering & tottering for a market meaning to rise. Recall that the dollar index stands at a crucial crossroad. If it falls through 93.62 (last low), it enters peril of dropping far, far lower. If it holds here and rises, it might rally the rest of the year.

Stocks' bear market rally is so baseless & so stubborn that I am beginning to see the Invisible Hand of the Nice Government Men behind it. One wonders why they are so stupid as to stand commanding the sea to rise, like King Canute but without as much class.

Dow today rose 106.70 (0.6%) to 18,004.16. S&P500 gained 13.61 (0.65%) to 2,094.34. Walkin' on air.

Gold rose 50 little cents to $1,233.60 on Comex. Silver pared off six cents to 1624.9¢. Given the overnight panic over oil dropping, I thought gold held up very well. Of course, the dollar index fell, too, which didn't hurt.

I got to feeling like a lunatic, expecting silver to rise through the top of this trading channel, seen here. http://schrts.co/vJfxKN

Mark, however, that silver has in fact traded clean through -- not much, but through -- the downtrend line from the April 2011 high. Maybe I'm not such a lunatic. Maybe silver will power on through.

Gold was lethargic today trying to punch through it s20 & 50 day moving averages, practically at the same place ($1,234.81 and $1,234.26). MACD has turned down, ROC is pointing down, & RSI is neutral.

Prepare yourself for a little drop. Gold will hang on as long as it doesn't close below $1,218. Chrt's here, http://schrts.co/4N1Q5n

I keep scratching my scalp and asking, "Why ain't gold & silver breaking down? What are we not seeing? What are they whispering?" I reckon before too long they'll commence shouting.

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