Silver and Gold Prices: July 2016

Friday, July 29, 2016

Both Silver and Gold Prices Proved Wednesday's Breakouts Genuine

Here's the weekly scorecard:

	22-Jul-16	29-Jul-16	Change	% Change
Silver, cents/oz.	1,965.70	2,031.20	65.50	3.3
Gold, dollars/oz.	1,323.10	1,349.00	25.90	2.0
Gold/silver ratio	67.309	66.414	-0.895	-1.3
Silver/gold ratio	0.0149	0.0151	0.0002	1.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	290.15	282.45	-7.69	-2.7
Dow in gold ounces	14.04	13.66	-0.37	-2.7
Dow in Silver ounces	944.74	907.46	-37.29	-3.9
Dow Industrials	18,570.85	18,432.24	-138.61	-0.7
S&P500	2,175.03	2,173.60	-1.43	-0.1
US dollar index	97.46	95.49	-1.97	-2.0
Platinum	1,085.60	1,150.30	64.70	6.0
Palladium	684.45	708.05	23.60	3.4

29-Jul-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold, $/oz	1,349.00	16.70	1.3
Silver, $/oz	20.31	0.15	0.8
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.414	0.817	1.2
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	0.0001	0.7
Platinum	1,150.30	14.70	1.3
Palladium	708.05	10.70	1.5
S&P 500	2,173.60	3.54	0.2
Dow	18,432.24	-24.11	-0.1
Dow in GOLD $s	282.45	-3.89	-1.4
Dow in GOLD oz	13.66	-0.19	-1.4
Dow in SILVER oz	907.46	-8.04	-0.9
US Dollar Index	95.49	-1.24	-1.3

Great week for metals, not so good for stocks. Gold keeps rising & getting overboughter in the teeth of sky-high CoTs. Stocks are sputtering. Platinum gained 6%! Palladium 3.4%. US dollar index tanked today

US GDP numbers appeared at less than half what economists expected (1.2% vs. 2.6%), & the Bank of Japan announced puny stimulus measures, contrary to what everyone expected. It was a toxic cocktail for the US dollar index. It skidded 124 basis points (1.28%). See http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

The dollar spent part of June and all of July building a rising flat topped triangle, broke out to the upside and promised to rise, rise, rise. Then on the FOMC's news Wednesday that it's not about to raise interest rates, the dollar index sagged. Today's news was a bullet in the head, sending it slicing through its 200, 20, and even 50 DMA far below. In fact, the dollar index has returned to the 95.50 support level we know so well.

It's the green mile: dollar is a dead man walking -- for a while.

Well, shut my nat'ral born durn Tennessee fool mouth! The euro actually rose. Lo, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

This is the sort of bogus action that SCREAMS "Nice Government Men! What do I mean? The Euro fell out of it trading range when Brexit hit in June. Formed an even-sided triangle, which nature predicts would break DOWN. Broke down. Then, in three magic-filled days, the euro nixes all that, shoots up through its 20,, 200, & 50 DMAs. Sure.

Well, if 'tis nature, it means the euro is way stronger than anyone suspected, & all those toiled-paper stuffed European banks aren't really stuffed with toilet paper, & the European economy is fine, & Brexit won't hurt Europe way more than the UK. Thus far nature.

But suspicion of the NGM says they engineered the (same but upside-down) fall in the dollar for terrorized, toenail-biting fear that the euro would sink suddenly to its natural level, i.e., zero.

For me, it's no problem understanding. Central banking criminals meet every month at the Bank for International Settlements in Geneva for supper together. Do they talk about the rubber chicken? Or do they discuss who needs what exchange rate? Wow, let me pull off my socks & add that up on fingers & toes.

Wait! I am plumb forgetful. Did I mention all those European banks failing their stress tests today? Or that Deutsche Bank was among the 12 weakest? What was I thinking about.

Upon Japanese PM Abe's re-election, speculators expected Big inflation out of the BoJ. Today the BoJ double crossed 'em. Those scrambling to flee left behind a lot of skin. See? http://schrts.co/UuqBFa

Here's another one of those Nature/NGM arguments. Yen fell out of a rising wedge in May, but instead of following through to the earth's core, rose again, to much higher highs. Sure, part of that rally may be credited to scared money fleeing Europe or China, but today the yen rose thanks solely to the BoJ announcing anemic inflation moves.

INFLATION MARKETS. Last fall I began expecting an end to the commodity price deflation in force since 2008. Sure enough, oil, copper, & the CRB rallied.

Oil rallied from a February low, peaked in June, & yesterday hit its 200 DMA, a likely candidate for a downward correction to the Feb-June rise. Must not drop much lower, though. Chart is here, http://schrts.co/ggTMQ5

Copper bottomed in January and has traded sideways but higher. Now stands above its 200 DMA. View at http://schrts.co/XadyaG

CRB commodity index double bottomed in January and February and rallied smartly to June. Broke down from its upward channel in July, & hath now reached its 200 DMA. Turnaround time? Chart's here, http://schrts.co/XadyaG

What signifieth all this? If commodities prices keep rallying, it won't be because the global overcapacity spawned by a 20 year central bank inflation has been worked off. Rather, it ominously foretells that the way the central bankers will choose out of the deflation is heavy monetary inflation. Gold & silver are also mumbling that.

The Gold/Bank Stock Index spread charts the flow of confidence into financial and monetary markets (when it moves down) or into gold (when it moves up). It broke out of its old channel upside in January & soared. Settled back to trade in a downtrending channel. Then it behaved as almost all break-out markets do, it came back to the breakout point for a kiss good-bye and shot up again ot a June (Brexit) peak.

Yes, it traded back down, but only to the top of that channel, for another kiss good-bye.. In the last three days, having revisited the channel line and its 50 DMA, the GOLD/BKX has turned up again. Y'all stifle the tears: banks have a hard whippin' comin'.

As yesterday, today stock indices gainsaid each other. S&P500 rose 3.54 (0.16) to 2,173.60 but the Dow Industrials fell 24.11 (0.13%) to 18,432.24.

I don't really care that stock indices are rising in paper terms, because that answers no questions, butters no bread, boils no turnips, broils no pork chops. Don't tell you a durned thing. So I measure stocks in gold and silver.

Dow in gold peaked in December & tanked into February. Y'all go look, http://schrts.co/oEJUUv Make sure I'm not making this up.

Dow in gold rallied correctively from that 12.558 oz low, then traced out a megaphone reversal. Broke down from that on Brexit, but in the sharp post-Brexit stock rally corrected again. It has now reversed that correction and fallen through its 20 & 50 DMAs, turning decisively down. By the way, only one peak of that rally came near touching the 200 DMA. Weak as hash-house soup, & indicators shout it will fall further.

Dow in silver, ahhh, look, http://schrts.co/yNRvIo

Dow in silver also shows a December high, but has been weaker than the DiG. In June it fell slap through support from the previous two lows, and made a new low at 889 oz. It rallied timidly to 948 oz, then the rally failed and it has since cut again through its 20 DMA. Both these indicators shout that stocks toped against metals in December, & have resumed their primary trend. That trend will take stocks to one to two ounces of gold and sixteen to thirty-two ounces of silver, before it ends.

Both silver and gold prices proved Wednesday's breakouts genuine. Today Comex gold rose $16.70 (1.25%) to $1,349.00. Silver added 15.2 (0.75%) to 2031.2

Behold, the beautiful gold chart, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1

Y'all forgive me, I promise I'm not just being pig-headed. Rather, I am looking at a gold chart that screams to me, "Higher!" Higher price for three days have confirmed a bullish breakout from the bullish flag. Volume is rising, slightly but rising. MACD is turning up, as is ROC. Today it closed above the former upper channel boundary. "HIGHER!" It's aiming at $1,450.

Now look at silver, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1

Three days it has closed higher out of that pennant formation, three days and above its 20 DMA. It has worked off the RSI overboughtness that prevailed through July's first half. Volume has jumped with price. MACD is turning up.

And physical gold & silver buyers have dried up. That's not only typical of summer, but also typical of early rises in a new trend. Buyers don't believe the new prices yet, so wait and wait for corrections, but the corrections never come. Finally they panic and buy at higher prices. Odd, people love to buy a rising market. Human nature.

I reckon silver will hit 2300 - 2400¢ before a real correction bites.

I've said too much already, so I'm not going to point y'all to the gold & silver weekly & monthly charts that show clear, confirmed breakouts. Just assume I did.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1332.50 up $5.60 or 0.42%

28-Jun-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold, $/oz	1,332.50	5.60	0.42%
Silver, $/oz	20.16	0.20	0.98%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.096	-0.365	-0.55%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	0.0001	0.55%
Platinum	1,135.60	10.60	0.94%
Palladium	697.35	4.95	0.71%
S&P 500	2,170.06	3.48	0.16%
Dow	18,456.35	-15.82	-0.09%
Dow in GOLD $s	286.32	-1.45	-0.51%
Dow in GOLD oz	13.85	-0.07	-0.51%
Dow in SILVER oz	915.49	-9.73	-1.05%
US Dollar Index	96.72	-0.32	-0.33%

Platinum & Palladium do not care what the world thinks, they are rising. Both hit new 2016 highs today, both are challenging post-2011 downtrend lines.

Truly, truly, the only thing keeping the US dollar index afloat was the expectation the Fed incompetents would raise interest rates. That hope dashed, today it fell 32 bps (-0.33%) to 96.72, but at its 96.25 low it had punched clean through the 200 DMA & the rising lower boundary of that flat topped triangle it broke out of two weeks ago. Here, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

Stated shortly, the US dollar index just exxed out its upside breakout & showed itself weak as jail house coffee. Also turned down its MACD indicator.

Euro profited from the dollar's woes by rising 0.15% to $1.1078, but still couldn't close above its 200 DMA. Hear my words & watch my lips: the euro is doomed. Do NOT own euros. This is all a central bank sucker play, so stay away.

Yen gained 0.1% to 95 even. I would heap up another load of scorn on the yen, but denouncing the euro has emptied my metaphor sack. How in the Sam Hill can you adequately rave about something that on the very face of it is nuttier than a Salvador Dali painting?

Stock indices gainsaid each other. S&P500 rose 3.48 (0.16%) to 2,170.06 but the Dow Industrials fell 15.82 (0.9%) to 96.72. Stock weakness today piled up confirmation that the Dow in Gold & Dow in silver have ended their upward correction and turned down again.

Not sure what to think about silver & gold today. Comex gold ended up $5.60 (0.4%) at $1,332.30 while silver rose 19.5 (1%) to 2016¢.

That's not nearly as good as it sounds. Silver early in the day was trading as high as 2058¢ but around 9:15 sales hit it hard and drove it back. Same happened with gold, but the selling hit from the 9:15-ish $1,344.30. Gold remained below its $1,338.21 twenty day moving average, silver ended above its 20 DMA (1996¢). Yes, yes, this was a little disappointing, but not fatal to yesterday's breakout. Both have cleared those flag patterns & busted out upside. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. I look for higher prices still.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1319.50 Down $3.50 or -0.27%

25-Jul-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold, $/oz	1,319.50	-3.60	-0.27%
Silver, $/oz	19.62	-0.04	-0.21%
Gold/Silver Ratio	67.270	-0.039	-0.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0149	0.0000	0.06%
Platinum	1,085.00	-0.60	-0.06%
Palladium	687.15	2.10	0.31%
S&P 500	2,168.43	-6.55	-0.30%
Dow	18,493.06	-77.79	-0.42%
Dow in GOLD $s	289.72	-0.43	-0.15%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.02	-0.02	-0.15%
Dow in SILVER oz	942.80	-1.94	-0.21%
US Dollar Index	97.32	-0.20	-0.21%

July is such a precious, peaceful month. I think we ought to ban political activity and news coverage the whole month, just so we could get some peace & refreshment. If y'all could drive through Robinson Branch with me where it's cool and the green sunlight trickles through the leaves, you'd vote for peace & refreshment, too.

I woke up this morning thinking about gold & silver, something I don't usually do. It occurred to me that we will probably see metals moving sideways through at least half of August. If y'all had been through as many Augusts with gold & silver as I have, you'd be expecting them to begin rallying in the latter half of August.

Markets are hesitating like a baseball flung in the air, just before it turns and starts down.

US dollar index sustained its habits of slovenly weakness and lost 20 basis points (0.21%) to 97.32. Broke out of the triangle, but won't follow through. Still makes no sense. You'd have to be one speculatin' FOOL to sell dollars for euros now. I'm sorry, call me a tick-bitten, chigger-riddled, one-gallus hick, I just can't make a lick of sense out of the scrofulous dollar.

Who would buy euros? Euro is one of the best arguments I know for owning gold. Well, it rose today 0.16% to $1.0993. Looking at that six month chart, it looks like the Nice Government Men are letting it down slowly. See what you think. http://schrts.co/HcRUv0

Yen has gotten snagged in its 50 DMA, & so far that's stopped its roll down the hill. Gained 0.3% today to 94.52.

D'yall ever push an upright piano out a window? Once you get it on the window sill, you can just inch it out a little bit at a time & its weight is still mostly on your side or balanced. Right the second it gets overbalanced, that whole thing turns casters up in the air and falls 4 stories to the sidewalk.

That's what this chart reminds me of: http://schrts.co/vtdPMb Yep, it's the S&P500. Today it lost another 6.55 (0.3%) trading sideways & closed 2,168.43. Dow looks the same. Lost 77.79 (0.42%) to 18,493.06. They're pushing further & further out that window, & one day they'll get overbalanced.

OIL (WTIC) is trying to break down. http://schrts.co/vtdPMb Closed today below the lower channel line. On rising volume.

Gold lost $3.60 (0.3%) to $1,319.50 on Comex. Silver subtracted 4.2¢ (0.2%) to 1961.5¢.

Gold chart is right here, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR

You have to be patient enough to let any pattern work itself out, but gold has now traded into the nosecone formed by the bullish flag boundaries and the uptrend line from June. Bumped into the uptrend line today, but didn't close there. Unless it closes higher tomorrow, it runs the risk of breaking that uptrend line and falling back to the 50 DMA at $1,291.

Silver's here, http://schrts.co/n7iIb4 Silver has traded out into the nose of a triangle and has about one more day before it will be squeezed out. Closed today right on the 20 DMA.

I'm gonna get in trouble if I keep trying to say something when I've said all I had to say, so I'll say Good Night!

Friday, July 22, 2016

Gold Price Closed at 1323.10 Down $7.40 or -0.6%

Here's the weekly scorecard:

	15-Jul-16	22-Jul-16	Change	% Change
Silver, cents/oz.	2,012.50	1,965.70	-46.80	-2.3
Gold, dollars/oz.	1,326.50	1,323.10	-3.40	-0.3
Gold/silver ratio	65.913	67.309	1.396	2.1
Silver/gold ratio	0.0152	0.0149	-0.0003	-2.1
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)	288.56	290.15	1.59	0.6
Dow in gold ounces	13.96	14.04	0.08	0.6
Dow in Silver ounces	920.08	944.74	24.67	2.7
Dow Industrials	18,516.55	18,570.85	54.30	0.3
S&P500	2,161.74	2,175.03	13.29	0.6
US dollar index	96.56	97.46	0.90	0.9
Platinum	1,090.50	1,085.60	-4.90	-0.4
Palladium	647.90	684.45	36.55	5.6

22-Jul-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold, $/oz	1,323.10	-7.40	-0.6
Silver, $/oz	19.66	-0.13	-0.6
Gold/Silver Ratio	67.309	-0.372	-0.5
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0149	-0.0001	-0.6
Platinum	1,085.60	-19.60	-1.8
Palladium	684.45	0.80	0.1
S&P 500	2,175.03	9.86	0.5
Dow	18,570.85	53.62	0.3
Dow in GOLD $s	290.15	2.48	0.9
Dow in GOLD oz	14.04	0.12	0.9
Dow in SILVER oz	944.74	8.77	0.9
US Dollar Index	97.46	0.41	0.4

'Twas a laborious, toilsome week for silver & gold. Gold ended the week little damaged, but silver lost 2.3%. Platinum couldn't break higher & ended only a tadge lower while palladium surged 5.6%. Stocks kept eking out gains, but not enthusiastically. US dollar index finally added a bit of fat, but only today.

I won't dwell on it, but y'all had better be paying attention to the banking mess in Europe. The banks are busted, and only because they are banks are they still standing, propped up by government. More: criminal kamikaze-Keynesian central bankers have blown up the greatest bubble in world history in government bonds. Count on it: there will be a default. You don't want to be a creditor in a default. Remember The Moneychanger's Rule For Staying Out of Bar Fights: leave the bar before the fight begins. I don't know when, but soon enough, the bust to end all busts will hit.

And now, a word about Long Spindly Rising Wedges (LSRW. Gaze upon the Dow chart, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 and the S&P500 chart, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Both charts show LSRWs. The chart depicts a goosed market running out of fuel. Daily ranges become tighter and tighter, volume dwindles, upward momentum ceases, & the market plunges out of the wedge, or trades sideways & THEN plunges out of the wedge.

S&P500 today rose 53.62 (0.29%) to 18,570.85. SI&P500 inched out a new high at 2,175.03, up 9.86 (0.46%) from yesterday. LSRW.

Precious metals' weakness this week in the face of continuing stock strength has raised the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Dow in gold ended today at 14.03 oz, above the 50 day moving average, an argument for the end of the move. Dow in silver closed at 943.21 oz, just above the 20 DMA and a propitious place to turn 'round.

US dollar index displays a rising flat topped triangle with an upside breakout. Chart's at http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

The breakout targets 98.3, but the dollar continues sluggish. I imagine the rest of the globe harbors abounding reasons to sell wherever their local fiat chips are and buy dollars, given the sorry state of their economies. That applies particularly to Europe and the developing world. Thus it continues to baffle me why the dollar isn't rising faster. Stocks seem to have profited well from the same motive in the last four weeks. Why not the dollar?

If it weren't for the Nice Government Men slowing the avalanche, the euro would have no future at all Look at this chart, http://schrts.co/HcRUv0

Euro broke down Tuesday from an even-sided triangle, languishes below its 200 DMA, and today spent the entire day below the triangle. Has not near-about stopped falling. Couldn't rouse that thing to life with a heavy duty set of jumper cables & a marine battery.

Japanese yen is foot-stepping & tripping over its 50 day moving average, well & truly broken down since the high early this month. Bank of Japan head talking it down as hard as he can, & more Abenomics coming, i.e., lots more yen printing, depreciation, & economic & market interference. A toxic cocktail.

Silver & gold "sort of" gainsaid yesterday's rise by falling back today. Comex gold lost $4.70 (0.6%) to $1,323.10. Silver backed up 12.7¢ (0.6%) to 1965.7¢.

Keep in the back of your mind that today is Friday, & traders like to close out positions before the weekend. Also keep in mind that today's lows in both metals were generously higher than yesterday's (1962¢ against 1927¢ & $1,319.40 against $1,310.70.

Actually, I DON'T think I am grasping at straws. Look at gold's chart, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1 What was required of gold? Do NOT break down through the short term uptrend line from the $1,201.50 June low. So far, gold has nicely fielded that ball. Next, gold needs to rise above the top boundary of that bullish flag, if that's what it really is. Well, did that today, and even closed right on the line. As long as gold doesn't crack that uptrend, at $1,314 on Monday, it will survive jes' fine. Remember, gold is in an uptrend.

Expect strength, expect surprises, expect surprising strength.

What about silver? Well, look, http://schrts.co/2mPkwE

First thing I notice is that volume shrank today, on a down day, gainsaying that direction. Next I notice silver is above its 20 DMA (1958¢) & spent the whole day there. And it punched into the overhead downtrend line, if it failed to close up there.

So while metals might not take off running out of Monday's gate, they aren't about to collapse. To prove they have resumed their rally, silver still needs to close above 2010¢ and gold must conquer $1,335.

Here's a little favour I ask of y'all. If you have bought or sold gold & silver with us and were pleased with our services, would you please recommend us to your friends? If we didn't please you, call me on Monday & I'll straighten it out.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1318.80 Down $12.70 or -0.95%

20-Jul-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,318.80	-12.70	-0.95%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.58	-0.39	-1.97%
Gold/Silver Ratio	67.348	0.689	1.03%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0148	-0.0002	-1.02%
Platinum	1,087.60	-7.10	-0.65%
Palladium	674.40	17.50	2.66%
S&P 500	2,173.02	9.24	0.43%
Dow	18,595.03	36.02	0.19%
Dow in GOLD $s	291.47	3.34	1.16%
Dow in GOLD oz	14.10	0.16	1.16%
Dow in SILVER oz	949.60	20.49	2.20%
US Dollar Index	97.26	0.15	0.15%

Before I forget for the third day running, falling premiums need mentioning. Premium on US 90% silver coin, at $5 an ounce over spot at wholesale last August, has fallen to 20¢ over spot. That makes 90%, my favorite form of holding silver, the cheapest way to buy silver.

In gold coins, the Austrian 100 corona (0.9802 oz) yesterday was about $2 UNDER spot at wholesale. The US $5 commemoratives (0.241875 troy ounce) costs only $2 over spot at wholesale, ridiculously cheap for a fractional US coin.

Why does it make a difference? OVER TIME, PREMIUM ALWAYS DISAPPEARS. Gold is gold. Therefore, we always want to buy the lowest cost per ounce coin. Buy gold, not premium, and, yes, I mean to prefer these low premium coins over the gold American Eagles, and 90% coin over silver American Eagles.

Back in August 2015 we advised our customers to SWAP US 90% coin for silver bullion because they could realize a roughly 20% gain in ounces. Now that the premium has vanished on 90% coin, it wouldn't be a bad idea to swap bullion back into 90%. Why? One day that premium will return, and besides, US 90% coin has potentially the greatest utility of any physical silver.

TODAY silver broke out of that pennant, proving it was an even-sided triangle instead of a pennant. Or did it?

Silver dropped 39.3¢ (2%) to 1958.2¢. Gold tumbled $12.70 (1%) to $1,318.80 on Comex. I repeat: silver is more volatile than gold, upside and downside.

Here's the Silver chart, http://schrts.co/mAsOa7

Silver punched through the lower boundary of that pattern, but didn't quite reach its 20 day moving average below at 1934¢. Low came at 1944¢.

That heavy blue line holding everything up is the current uptrend line. If this is simply a shallow correction, silver will touch that 20 DMA & reverse. It might be a deeper correction, in which case it must not breach that heavy blue uptrend line, tomorrow about 1860¢.

Yes, redrawing that pennant into a flat bottomed falling triangle does make me nervous. Those patterns have a habit of breaking down.

None of this terrorizes me because (1) gold & silver needed some correction to shake out the optimists, and (2) the gold chart is just fine. Take a look, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1

Gold could have dropped as low as $1,350 today & remained within that bullish flag. Actual low came at $1,313.30. Maximum possible low tomorrow to stay within the flag is $1,309. Gold adds this complication, that it is smack on the uptrend line, so the bottom boundary of that flag becomes that uptrend line.

Gold pierced its 20 DMA ($1,331.09) today. Good. Volume rose some, but not markedly, nor did silver's.

On the upside watch $1,340 and 2025¢. Closes above that signal an upside breakout.

No, I don't know how many days this correction might continue, but gold's chart says not more than three or four.

I should have heeded the gold/silver ratio's warning yesterday. It gapped up & ended the day up 1%. Surely headed for the 20 DMA overhead (68.99). View the chart here, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy

US dollar index today built on yesterday's gains by adding 15 basis points (0.15%) to 97.26. Clearly intends to move higher.

Euro followed through on yesterday's downside break out, but ended at $1.1009, only 0.9% lower. Yen, however, busted its 50 DMA (94.18) today & lost a huge 1%.

Stocks rose again. Dow added 36.02 (0.19%) to 18,595.03. S&P500 grabbed 9.24 (0.43%) to end at 2,173.02. The power of central banking lies.

I am beat. Pulled grass out of flowerbeds on Saturday, & Monday the chiggers started showing up. Now my chiggerbites have chiggerbites. Scratching like I've got fleas. Thank God for lavender oil!

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Gold Price Needs to Close above $1,340 to Convince Investors it has Truly Broken out Toward the Heavens

19-Jul-16	Price	Change	% Change
Gold, $/oz	1,331.50	3.10	0.23%
Silver, $/oz	19.98	-0.07	-0.34%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.658	0.384	0.58%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0150	-0.0001	-0.58%
Platinum	1,094.70	-3.80	-0.35%
Palladium	656.90	10.35	1.60%
S&P 500	2,163.78	-3.11	-0.14%
Dow	18,559.01	25.96	0.14%
Dow in GOLD $s	288.13	-0.27	-0.09%
Dow in GOLD oz	13.94	-0.01	-0.09%
Dow in SILVER oz	929.11	4.49	0.49%
US Dollar Index	97.11	0.52	0.54%

'Twas a day of resolution, and a day of irresolution.

The resolute US dollar index resolved upwards out of that flat-topped rising triangle. And it did so persuasively, levitating 52 basis points (0.54%) to 97.11, well above the triangle's upper boundary. http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

This rising dollar helps explain gold's timidity today, but I still observe that gold rose in the teeth of a rising dollar. New game, folks.

The euro resolved downside out of the even-sided triangle it has been trapped in. Yes, it needs another close below that line, but no doubt you'll see it, soon. http://schrts.co/HcRUv0

Yen jiggled up 0.06% to 94.22. Jiggled. Stumbling trying to fall through the 50 day moving average. Firmly astride the down escalator.

As if they didn't even believe their rally themselves, stock indices irresolutely gainsaid each other. The Dow rose 25.96 (0.14%) to 18,559.01 while the S&P500 fell 3.11 (01.4%) to 2,163.78.

When markets that ought to speak together in harmony contradict each other, confusion abounds.

So also silver & gold acted irresolutely. Gold gained $3.10 (0.2%) to $1,331.50 on Comex, but silver turned the other way, losing 6.9¢ (0.3%) to 1997.5¢.

Both metals are trading sideways & directionless on their 5 day charts. Was I therefore wrong yesterday when I pointed out the pennant/flags on their charts?

Newp. Flags abide there still, and were not violated or negated today.

Start with silver, http://schrts.co/BE3yxz

Today the low on the pennant's bottom boundary was 1977¢, & tomorrow will be about 1982¢. Upside cap tomorrow is 2013¢, and Thursday will find silver all the way out in the far nose of the pennant, forcing silver's hand. A close above 2013¢ breaks out of the pennant, but that needs to take place with drama and rise above 2025¢.

Tomorrow the bottom line of gold's [presumptive] bullish flag is $1,305, the upper line $1,331. In other words, it might fall as low as $1,305 & rise as high as $1,331 tomorrow without violating or breaking out of that flag. Really gold price needs to close above $1,340 to convince investors it has truly broken out toward the heavens. http://schrts.co/Vbp2I8

Despite today's irresolution, there will be no irresolution when they break out. Up or down, it will be an enthusiastic move. Of course, those flags point to upside breakouts.

Gold/silver ratio is a nasty fly in that ointment, however. http://schrts.co/kh9gOy After a long, gappy downward skid, it may be turning up. That doesn't bode well for higher silver & gold prices.

So many charts, so many indicators, so many signs -- who can choose?

Pages