Monday, February 29, 2016

Gold Price Soared $14.10 Today Closing Up at $1,233.90

29-Feb-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,233.9014.101.16%
Silver Price, $/oz14.900.211.41%
Gold/Silver Ratio82.834-0.207-0.25%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01210.00000.25%
Platinum Price933.7019.202.10%
Palladium Price495.6013.502.80%
S&P 5001,932.23-15.82-0.81%
Dow16,516.50-123.47-0.74%
Dow in GOLD $s276.70-5.29-1.88%
Dow in GOLD oz13.39-0.26-1.88%
Dow in SILVER oz1,108.79-24.03-2.12%
US Dollar Index98.220.040.04%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE burst the surly bonds of below-$1,200 to soar $14.10 (1.16%) to $1,233.90, right back where this fun began. The SILVER PRICE flew 20.7¢ (1.41%) higher to perch at $14.896.

Gold/Silver Ratio
Anyone trading the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, as many commodity traders do via the futures markets, would close out their long gold/short silver at 84.5, since the ratio topped there in 2008. Well, look at the chart on the right. End of Day Ratio chart shows Friday's high at 84.53. Clearly something is driving that ratio, but what? What conditions resemble 2008? Are credit markets really that tight? I don't know, that's above my pay grade.

Gold Price
In any event, just from a technical standpoint that ratio ought to back off a while, even if it intends later to go higher. By the way, it is also monstrously overbought by its RSI and MACD, most overbought in 15 months. Hence it makes sense to swap gold for silver here, at any ratio above 80.

Today cast the while stock rally/metals correction into cloudy suspense again. Stocks seem to have stalled at those resistance areas, and the GOLD PRICE turned around and recovered.

Silver Price
But still 't'ain't right. The gold price has drawn an up-pointing bear flag, and that promises to take the price of gold back to $1,180. That is the most likely outcome, but if gold can pierce $1,264 before that, it will take off for another $50 run or more.

SILVER resolved an even-sided triangle by breakout out downside. That established a new downsloping channel sliding toward $14.50 - $14.40 Silver will only complete its penance when it breaks above not $15.99 the last high, but the October $16.40 high. Meanwhile it is offering y'all a chance to buy more on the cheap.

Some commentators think that stocks have been rising on the expectation that the G-20 meeting in Shanghai would spawn some sort of concerted stimulus by central banks. Well, it didn't, and now stocks are sagging.

November, December, January, and February the MSCI World stock index (ex-USA) has fallen. Dow barely ended this month higher, S&P was lower, Russell 2000 fell third month running, Nasdaq 100 has fallen three months, and Nasdaq composite four months.

Chinese central bank lowered its bank reserve requirement 1/2%, and as if that meant something, stocks in Europe rose. I say "as if" because China is a command economy where such decisions are made for political, not economic, reasons. 'Tis all a vast Potemkin village, waiting for a vast and bloody fall. That Chinese move helped not US stocks, which peaked about 11:30 and fell wretchedly the rest of the day. Dow tumbled 123.47 (0.74%) to 16,516.50 and the S7P500 fell back 15.82 (0.81%) to 1,932.23.

Feels like I have stepped into a Salvador Dali filled with skulls and melting clocks, this surreal world where things seem real but are as insubstantial as wet cardboard. You poke 'em with a finger and punch right through.

US dollar lost its spunk today. Rose 4 basis points and did close above 50 DMA (98.14) at 98.22, but its momentum has slowed and it's looking a little wedgy, as in bearish rising edge. But no matter how shopworn, fly specked, and putrid the dollar looks, it has one advantage: sometimes it looks better than its closest rivals.

I say sometimes because today the yen rose 1.15% to 88.74. It may have topped already, but when it catches that safe haven bid for money running out of Europe and other Asian countries, it can pop. Mirroring the despairing condition of the EU and its economy, the euro fell 0.5% today to $1.0875, taking another nose dive.

Together we would do well to remember the CHARACTER of bull and bear markets. Bear markets stage sudden, sharp rallies that expire as suddenly as they began. Market proverb says the bear wants to lure as many investors as possible into his den to maul them at his leisure. Bear market can show dramatic advances and corrections more terrifying than a roller coaster -- the bull trying to shake off as many riders as possible.

Me, I don't know bull from bear. My astrological sign is the possum, so when markets scare me I tend to curl up in a ball and play dead.

My wife Susan told me that yesterday was her first good day with her eye, and today was just a little better. I deeply appreciate y'all's concern.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Gold Price Stumbled $18.40 or 1.49 Percent to $1,219.80

19-Feb-1626-Feb-16Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,230.401,219.80-10.60-0.9
Silver Price, $/oz.15.36814.6890.679-4.4
Gold/Silver Ratio80.06283.0422.9793.7
Silver/gold ratio0.01250.0120-0.0004-3.6
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)275.40282.006.602.4
Dow in gold ounces13.3213.640.322.4
Dow in Silver ounces1,066.631,132.8266.196.2
Dow Industrials16,391.9916,639.97247.981.5
S&P5001,917.781,948.0530.271.6
US dollar index96.6598.101.451.5
Platinum Price944.60914.50-30.10-3.2
Palladium Price499.25482.10-17.15-3.4

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
It was a hard week for the little things. SILVER and GOLD PRICES were badly battered today. Stocks dipped today but held on to a weekly gain. US dollar index surprised all by coming alive today and springing up 1.5% for the week. Silver and gold prices took the beating today they've been wincing for all week, but it's better than okay. Clears the road for next advance. Platinum and palladium both got hammered, down over 3%.

Owch. The SILVER PRICE tumbled 48.1¢ (3.2%) to $14.689. The gold price stumbled $18.40 (1.49%) to $1,219.80.

9 Month Silver Price
A letter I got from a reader today left me wondering if I have given y'all a misapprehension about my expectations. I firmly believe that gold and silver's long correction bottomed with the December 2015 lows. However, after that huge breakout burst on 11 February, a correction became likely. That's what I've been looking for all week, and it materialized today.

Why is a correction good news? Because it will clear the way for the next rally.

Gold Price
Silver fell out of an even-sided triangle and clean through its 200 DMA ($15.05). IF (if) it does not stop around here, it could reach the 50 DMA at $14.47 or lower. Volume today dried up, so this retreat shouldn't last much longer. Also, the top of that bowl that silver broke out of stands at $14.40. That ought to support silver. Here's a 9-month chart on the right:

Gold/Silver Ratio
The GOLD PRICE fell to the nether boundary of that bear flag. That pattern usually breaks out earthward. Target is $1,180, maybe lower on a scare-spike. This will not drag on for long. Y'all should take EVERY retreat as an opportunity to buy silver and gold at a price that will leave you bragging to your grandbabies. Gold chart on the left:

Never say never with markets. GOLD/SILVER RATIO pushed through the range's top boundary today and ended Comex at 83.042. Owch. If not an anomaly, I don't want to imagine what it might mean. Way, way overbought, so you'd expect it to fall next week. That implies the gold price would drop and catch up to silver. GREAT time to swap gold for silver. Call us at (931) 766-6066. Here's a ratio chart on the right.

US Dollar
Now to the dollar, ugly duckling turned into ugly duck. Good news in lying government reports today goosed it 81 basis points (0.84%) to 98.10. Noteworthy here is a close above 97.50 resistance but not quite above the 98.14 50-DMA -- a line which might mark the limit of the dollar's advance. Still, odds favor higher dollar next week, probably riding optimism bleeding out of stocks.

Euro nailed its own coffin shut today, closing below the lower range boundary that has contained most trading since last June. Lost 0.8% to $1.0937. Yen has unarguably broken its uptrend, taking much pressure off the Japanese Nice Government Men. Sank 0.85% to 87.72.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil
West Texas Intermediate Crude can't pierce $34.50 resistance -- yet. Fell back 0.91% to $32.78. Trying to bottom, but so weakly. Copper didn't care and rose 1.73 to $2.11. No change here until it scales $2.15.

Not much joy in Stockville today. 'Twas a day of steady loss, dwindling, dwindling through the day. Dow gave up 57.32 (0.34%) to 16,639.97. S&P500 lost 0.19% (3.65) to1,948.05. That puts the Dow above resistance (16,600 and the 50 DMA at 15,686) and the S&P500 stalled -- just over the 1,944 50 DMA but feet still tangled in 1950 resistance.

Both can still rise a tad, but not much -- not more than 17,000 and 2,000. This may take another two weeks to unroll.

Dow in Gold
In the Dow measured in metals, the upward correction we anticipated is working itself out. Dow in gold keeps vibrating up and down over the uptrend line from the 2011 low, and today bumped into the 20 DMA (13.65 troy ounces). Rose 0.74% to end at 13.63 troy ounces. Might stretch for the 50 DMA, now at 14.75 oz, before it exhausts.

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver reacheth for the 200 DMA (1,146.45 tr. Oz). 200 and 50 DMA are about to run together. DiS lifted 2.72% today to 1,132.82 troy ounces. After the fall we have seen since the December peak, this is nothing unusual.

Don't miss the point: back of stocks' rally against metals that began in September 2011 has been BROKEN. Trend change to DOWN. For the next several years, silver and gold prices will gain value against stocks (stocks will become cheaper in silver and gold terms).

On 25 February 1863 the yankee congress passed the National Banking Act, part of the Lincoln government's attempt to float its bonds for an unpopular war. This was the embryo of a central bank in the US, another of Lincoln's crimes.

Susan's eye is growing better day by day. Thanks again for your prayers.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Gold Price Lost 50 Cents to End at $1,238.20

25-Feb-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,238.20-0.50-0.04%
Silver Price, $/oz15.17-0.13-0.83%
Gold/Silver Ratio81.6490.6450.80%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0122-0.0001-0.79%
Platinum Price926.10-17.30-1.83%
Palladium Price483.60-3.90-0.80%
S&P 5001,951.7021.901.13%
Dow16,697.2942.300.25%
Dow in GOLD $s278.760.820.29%
Dow in GOLD oz13.490.040.29%
Dow in SILVER oz1,101.0411.911.09%
US Dollar Index97.39-0.13-0.13%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Comex raised GOLD PRICE futures margins today from $4,675 initial and $4,250 maintenance to $4,950 and $4,500. This is usual as the gold price rises.

SILVER ebbed 12.7¢ to $15.165 on Comex. The GOLD PRICE lost -- wait for it! -- fifty cents to end at $1,238.20.

This picture is all fuzzy. Wind must have blown down my antenna. Can't quite get silver and gold prices to focus in sharply.

Gold Price
After its $9 collapse in yesterday's aftermarket, the price of gold rose to $1,244.40 at today's high, made a slightly lower low ($1221.80 against $1,222.40), then ended the day virtually unchanged. It altered the appearance of that pennant into a possible Bearish Flag instead. Behold the chart on the right. All this whispers darkly of lower prices. More, the Comex closing GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose today to 81.649, bumping the trading channel's top boundary. That strongly implies that the gold price will drop relative to silver.

Silver Price
But Thunderation! Look at the SILVER PRICE, It bumped its 200 DMA today, exactly at the same location as the 20 DMA ($15.06 and $15.07) and has formed an even-sided triangle which could just as easily resolve skyward as earthward. I am torn because I wanted to buy more silver somewhere under 1510¢ and missed it today when it hit 1503¢. I'm not acting coy, the pros and cons are just too evenly balanced.

Commitments of Traders for silver are lousy, so that's against it.

Here's where I hang. Gold closing above $1,264 would drag gold substantially higher, say, to $1,300 - $1,395. Otherwise look for one more scary leg down that cracks $1,200 and plunges swiftly to $1,180/$1,170 then snaps right back. For now that's the clearest picture I can get., although I've 'bout twisted the knobs off.

A MARK OF THEIR DESPERATION: Illinois' state budget and pension fund crisis is the worst in the US, save for California. From a friend who lives across the border in Indiana comes this mark of their desperation. The utility company cut off electricity to the Illinois State Police outposts for failure to pay the bill. My friend also drives an agricultural truck through Illinois and says they are setting up roadside scales, stopping every truck, and ticketing and fining if loads are even 100 lb. over limit. Clearly they are desperate for revenue.

But hark! This is only the first buzzard of spring. Most states have budget shortfalls, and many have pension schemes waiting for bankruptcy, they just haven't declared it yet. Hide and watch. Big POP a-comin'.

Behold! The US dollar index reached 97.5 resistance, twice poked its head above, then wilted like Swiss chard in hot olive oil. Today it fell back 13 basis points (0.13%) to 97.39. Maybe the 20 DMA at 97.22 can catch it. It's pounding into the uptrend line, trying to fall through.

Euro remains a mere reactionary shadow of the US dollar. Rose 0.1% to $1.1025. Yen's rally broke today with a gap that left behind what resembles an island reversal. Dropped 0.63% to 88.58¢/Y100 (Y112.89/US$).

Stocks peeked over resistance at 16,600 and 1950 plus their 50 day moving averages.

Dow languished most of the day little above unchanged, but at that regular 1:00 hour "friends" began buying and raised the Dow from 16,516 to 16,697.29, up 212.3 (1.29%) at close. S&P500 differed not much, rising 1.13% (21.9 points) to 1,951.70. These closes rose a gnat's eyebrow about the 50 DMAs (16,600 and 1,945.50). Now let's see how far stocks can rise against that headwind of resistance. I have no opinion because I wouldn't buy stocks if I had gummint money to do it, so I have no dog in this fight. Know, however, sure as cats have kittens that stocks will shed value this year like a dog with dermodectic mange sheds fur. Consider the Shanghai stock exchange with an already advanced case of mange. Lost 6.4% today.

Susan's eye has it's little problems, but is getting better. We're thankful for every little betterment.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.