Friday, March 25, 2011

Buy, Hold, and Keep on Buying Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : 1,426.20
Gold Price Close 18-Mar : 1,415.90
Change : 10.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 3705.8
Silver Price Close 18-Mar : 3506
Change : $1.998 or 5.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 38.49
Gold Silver Ratio 18-Mar : 40.39
Change : -1.90 or -4.7%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02598
Silver Gold Ratio 18-Mar : 0.02476
Change : 0.00122 or 4.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 177.13
Dow in Gold Dollars 18-Mar : $ 173.13
Change : $ 4.00 or 2.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.569
Dow in Gold Ounces 18-Mar : 8.375
Change : 0.19 or 2.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 329.77
Dow in Silver Ounces 18-Mar : 338.24
Change : -8.47 or -2.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,220.59
Dow Industrial 18-Mar : 11,858.52
Change : 362.07 or 3.1%

S&P 500 : 1,313.80
S&P 500 18-Mar : 1,279.20
Change : 34.60 or 2.7%

US Dollar Index : 76.234
US Dollar Index 18-Mar : 75.572
Change : 0.66 or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,748.60
Platinum Price Close 18-Mar : 1,723.60
Change : 25.00 or 1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 750.50
Palladium Price Close 18-Mar : 730.90
Change : 19.60 or 2.7%

Quick look: Silver up 5.7% (two bucks) for the week. Stop fighting it, and climb aboard. Gold, up ten bucks but lots more fun coming in this ride. Gold/Silver ratio hitting new lows. Dow in Silver ounces hitting new lows. Dow and S&P500 sneaked up this week. Dollar index gained.

I don't want to hear any whining and whinging about GOLD today. Merciful heavens! It rose six days running and hit a new all- time-since-creation high this week. Give it a break. Closed above the 20 DMA ($1,421.58), losing 8.70 to $1,426.20.

Still trying to parse that Gold chart, what emergeth? A rectangular consolidation between 1308 and 1435. When it breaks out of that box, it'll add $110 so fast your head will be spinning like that girl in The Exorcist. (Right, I probably could have picked a more palatable comparison. Sorry.)

Never mind all that. I feel like I'm waking up from an evil spell, cast on me by the gold and silver bear wizards. "Expect it to go down! Expect it to go down!" they kept droning at me, then my brain woke up and said, "Are y'all CRAZY? We are in a primary uptrend, a bull market, and there is one and only one strategy for a bull market: buy, hold, and keep on buying because it's going higher!"

Mercy, I have fallen into the same trap I keep warning y'all against. It's a bull market, stop worrying about corrections. They won't amount to hill of baked beans. Get long - stay long-- get longer.

That brings us to SILVER. Stop doubting. It's running away, and about to run harder. Silver today was forced to give back 33c, but didn't give a flip and closed above 3700c anyway, at 3705.8c. Traded up in the aftermarket. Let's stop talking about corrections and start looking for, oh, 3900c, 4200c maybe, before that happens.

What are the floors? Silver must not close below 3650c, 3570c in a pinch. Gold wants to hold above $1,420, and $1,405 for sure. If y'all see the lower end of those prices, buy. Yes, someday, maybe soon, they will correct, but when they do simply buy more.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO touched more new lows this week. Closed today at 38.486. Shhhh -- Listen. Come close and I'll tell y'all something you won't hear anywhere else, but don't tell anybody. At 38.486 the ratio stands below its 10 year, below its 20 year, below its 30 year, below its 50 year, below its 60 year, and below its 110 year average. In fact, it's nearer the 220 year average than the 110 year. Put that into perspective: the 10 year average is 60.53, 22 points higher.

Friends, the big run has begun.

Those Biblical scholars among y'all will remember what weapon Samson used against the Philistines in the 15th chapter of Judges. Just to show you some technology never goes out of style, the Federal Reserve unlimbered Samson's weapon this week against all the heathen who trust not the dollar. Three Federal Reserve governors whacked them hard with Samson's weapon, and old Ben the Buffoon even jumped in with an announcement that he would in future hold quarterly press conferences to announce what the Fed is doing. Be still, my beating heart!

And Samson's weapon worked well enough to lift the dollar almost a full percentage point. Today the buck gained 57.8 basis points, climbing in fact above 76 resistance to roost at 76.234. Now the scrofulous dollar has lost a few feathers here lately, plucked and picked over by the market, but that turkey could still fly up to a high roost this week.

What do you reckon the Fed will do? Will they stop the printing presses when Quantative Easing 2 expires in June? Or will they do QE3? Can a mad dog stop drooling? Institutionally, politically, monetarily, economically, intellectually, those Keynesian dodderers can't do a blessed thing but keep on inflating. However, the dollar is due and overdue for a rally, on its way to oblivion. Did it reach a double bottom this week with last November's low? Might have. Might have, but needs to top 77 before I'll even consider it. I've been suckered one time too many by the dollar.

And, Buddy, you can HAVE that euro for my money. Ran straight up on news the EU had reached an agreement, maybe, to bail out Portugal but Portugal, amidst resignation of its government, says it doesn't need a bailout. Right, and pants don't need zippers, either. Here's the crazy-maker: on this, Portugal's bankruptcy brinkmanship, the ECB is making noises about RAISING interest rates. Well, that will certainly help the Portuguese, the Spanish, and whoever else is on the Financial Critical Care list. Reckon that's all the ECB can do to protect euro's exchange rate in the face of the inevitability it will flood the world with more euros bailing out its bankrupts.

Technically Euro yesterday lunged upside in what looked strong, and stopped at 1.422. It paused, and then fell like an anvil tossed out of a third story window, clean back to the sidewalk at 1.406 where where it bottomed yesterday. This has a sloppy, key-reversal feel to it. And that island reversal on the longer term chart remains in play. Only a close above 1.4244 would negate it's deadly warning.

NGM still have a leash on the yen. Rose a little today to 81.40/$ (122.85c/Y100).

STOCKS have now bulged their way clean up to the downtrend line and are threatening to break through it. That's like a dog with dentures growling at you. Watch out! He might gum you to death, if he doesn't fall asleep first or take a coughing fit.

Listen, I call 'em as I see 'em, and nobody with two good eyes can look at the Dow or the S&P500 and fail to see a broadening top that is begging to tunnel to the earth's core. Now those NGM may be able to make flatirons float airborne for a day or two, but I place my money on gravity in the long run.

Dow today rose 50.3 to 12,220.59. S&P rose 4.14 to 1,313.80. Before anything significant takes place here, Dow must first best the March high of 12,283.10 (intraday) and then in short order breach February's 12,391.29 high. I doubt it, BICBW.

On this day in 1894 Coxey's Army of the Unemployed set out from Ohio for Washington, DC. It was a year after the Panic of 1893, second year into a 4 year depression. In those days, friends, the imperial government bilked the people in a different way than they do today. Back then they did it with Deflation, but in our Enlightened Day they do it with Inflation. 6000 men finally reached Washington in April and the intensely sympathetic federal government (no change there) had the leaders arrested for walking on the grass at the Capitol (no kidding).

By the way, deflation was the deliberate policy of the Republican run government (owned by the plutocrats then, too.). The deflation had several causes, one of which was shrinking the huge issue of fiat money from the war, then resumption of gold redeemability in 1879. But before that the Crime of 1873 demonetized silver, leading to the devaluation of, say, 15% of the money supply. But you must understand and have compassion on the needs of the bondholders. They had bought those bonds during the war with good paper money, 50c in gold on the dollar, and what would happen to the national government's credit if they weren't paid back in appreciated dollars fully redeemable in gold? Why, it would have been a shameful catastrophe, so once again, the Treasury and the nation's prosperity were sacrificed. As the French like to say, "The more this here changes, the more the same thing." But they say it in French, of course.

Today is the celebration of the Annunciation to the Blessed Virgin Mary, the announcement that she would become the mother of Jesus Christ. Until not too many years ago this day marked the beginning of the year in many countries, such as England, where it is called "Lady Day."

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.