Monday, March 21, 2011

Silver and Gold Prices Today Sort-of/Kind-of Broke Out to the Upside

Gold Price Close Today : 1426.20
Change : 10.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.002
Change : 94.2 cents or 2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 39.61
Change : -0.771 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02524
Change : 0.000482 or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1746.90
Change : 23.30 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.40
Change : 16.50 or 2.3%

S&P 500 : 1,298.38
Change : 19.18 or 1.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.46
Change : $ 1.35 or 0.8%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.440
Change : 0.065 or 0.8%

Dow in SILVER oz : 334.33
Change : 4.86 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,036.53
Change : 178.01 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.42
Change : -0.219 or -0.3%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES today sort-of/kind-of broke out to the upside. Don't get all sweaty, now, they still need to confirm the move with higher closes, but certainly it's a start.

To clarify for y'all the issues, consider: the deadly double top. A B-wave or upward reaction that's part of an A-B-C corrective wave, can appear very, very strong. It can make a double top. That is a fatal cap on any market, followed by loads of down-time. On the other hand, if it clears that last top, then it has broken out upward, and we just don't know until (a) it confirms the breakout with a close 2% above it, or (b) it makes the double top then fails to pierce and breaks down.

I am not ashamed to admit I don't know yet which way 'twill break.

The GOLD PRICE closed over its 20 DMA ($1,416.50) on Comex, adding $10.30 to $1,426.20 -- above $1,425 resistance. And the MACD may be turning up. There's a good chance that gold will clear $1,435 and make another large rally, $1,500, maybe $1,600, but first it must clear $1,435.

However, today probably marked the end of an upleg, so gold might fiddle sideways a day or two before continuing upward. A close below $1,405 negates all that upward hopefulness.

That silver is relentless. Since last Wednesday's low about 3360c it has climbed to a high today at 3618c. Comes gave it another 94.2c today [sic] for a 3600.2c close. Silver's strength has taken the gold/silver ratio back down near its low. Closing ratio today was 39.614.

Even if silver aims to move higher from here, tomorrow it will likely remain calm or even fall a bit, trying to digest the last days' gains.

Rubbing in what I wrote on Friday about never selling a bull market position -- if you had looked at silver and gold last week, you'd have bet respectable money they were headed lower. If so, and you had sold your long-term bull market position, you'd be keening, wailing, and mourning today. As I said, if you can pick the primary trend and ride it, that's plenty profitable enough. Don't worry about catching the little zigs and zags of trading.

What a difference perspective makes!

Portfolios and plans it makes or breaks!

Behold, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Up a monstrous (in its Middle-English sense) 178.01 points or 1.5% to 12,036.53. Wow-O-wow. Sounds peppy, don't it?

Until you look at a chart and the numbers. Dow's recent peak was around 12,400. Today's high roughly reaches a little less than the common 61.2% correction. And gazing at the graph even one who cannot ken Picasso grasps at once the INTACT downtrend line from that February high.

Yes, yes, it did touch the 20 day moving average (12,048.75) today, but didn't close through it. Closed by pennies above the 50 DMA (12,022.13).

Stocks remain locked in a downtrend, paid cheerleaders notwithstanding. I'd as soon buy stocks now as take a goblet of wine from the hand of Lucretia Borgia.

Fellow mushrooms, what do y'all want to bet that all the central banks are working together to squash the yen's rise? From 128.79 cents per 100 yen (77.645 yen per dollar) to 123.35 (81.07 yen per dollar). 'Tain't no accidents in currency exchange rates.

US DOLLAR INDEX lost another 21.9 basis points (0.28%) today and now trades at 75.42. Clearly the Japanese earthquake has helped speed the dollar along its journey to the center of the earth.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.