Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Gold Price Dropped Through It's 20 and 50 DMA, How Far Can It Fall?

Gold Price Close Today : 1396.00
Change : 3.40 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.471
Change : 35.5 cents or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.50
Change : -0.322 or -0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02469
Change : 0.000195 or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1696.00
Change : -10.50 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 696.90
Change : -6.40 or -0.9%

S&P 500 : 1,256.86
Change : -25.01 or -2.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.99
Change : $ (3.98) or -2.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.320
Change : -0.192 or -2.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 336.93
Change : -7.03 or -2.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,614.44
Change : -240.98 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index : 76.65
Change : 0.324 or 0.4%

Today was the day the metals markets practiced dribbling with dead cats the GOLD PRICE rose $3.40 to $1,396 on the Comex, and the SILVER PRICE re-captured 35.5c to end at 3447.1c.

Focus on the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. High today at 41.76 pierced the 20 DMA (1st warning of a trend change), but closed at 40.79, not above the 20 DMA. All the momentum indicators say that the ratio has turned sharply up. For silver and for gold that can only mean a sharp reaction, "sharp" meaning it falls fast and quick.

What jumps out of the gold chart? It dropped plumb thru its 20 DMA and to its 50 DMA in a single bound, single day. Today's $3.40 rise is a mere pause, nothing more. An aftershock will come. Lateral support at $1,380 lies near the 50 DMA at $1,378.92.

The SILVER PRICE jostled with its 3416c 20 DMA today, and closed above it at 3447.1c. No lateral support intercedes until 3120c, maybe 3174c.

Be patient, patient, patient. Loads of knowing goofs will begin spouting gleefully that the "bubble" in silver and gold has burst, they were right from the beginning not to buy, and other like drooling drivel. Ignore it all. Why should you listen to anyone who cannot tell a bubble from a bull market? Only reason I can think of is that you want to lose money like they will.

The SILVER and GOLD PRICE remain in a primary uptrend. Corrections are normal. Task of wisdom, judgment, and discernment now is to abide patiently until a bottom cometh.

I sure hope those folks are right about the Japanese Yen rising because of yen being repatriated to rebuild, because the Yen rose 2.2% today to close at 125.9 to the US dollar. Chart is ridiculous. If I were one of the honorable Japanese Nice Government Men, I would send housekeeping down to clean out the Bank of Japan's basement and throw onto that fire every yen I could get, then make up some more. A country with an export-driven economy can't afford a currency gaining 2% a day.

Meanwhile the Euro dropped 2/3 of one percent today, giving the scrofulous US dollar room to rise 32.4 basis points to 76.652. Dollar is still in the "Maybe It Will Rally" game for one more round, but must not close below 76.37.

Fiat currencies! Snort! They're every one sorry as gully dirt.

STOCKS in the US are beginning to resemble their Japanese cousins, but lack the excuse of an earthquake. As I warned, this leg down will be blitz-fast for stocks. Dow today misplaced some 240.98 points or 2.903% to perch at last at 11,614.44. In other words, it fell from yesterday's 11,855 through 11,800 and 11,700 and nearly thru 11,600. In fact, the low touched 11,555.48. Hemorrhages, bandages, iodine, tourniquets: that's the stock investor's lot. (S&P fell 1.95%, 25.01 points to 1,256.86). This might carry as low at 10,900.

Stocks remain the Edsel in the Great Investment Automobile Museum.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.