Thursday, March 17, 2011

Odds Favor More Downside for the Gold Price

Gold Price Close Today : 1404.00
Change : 8.00 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.260
Change : (21.1) cents or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.98
Change : 0.483 or 1.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02440
Change : -0.000291 or -1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1701.00
Change : 5.00 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 708.65
Change : 11.75 or 1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,273.72
Change : 16.84 or 1.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.36
Change : $ 1.41 or 0.8%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.386
Change : 0.068 or 0.8%

Dow in SILVER oz : 343.68
Change : 4.73 or 1.4%

Dow Industrial : 11,774.59
Change : 161.29 or 1.4%

US Dollar Index : 75.99
Change : -0.691 or -0.9%

The GOLD PRICE bounced off its 50 DMA day before yesterday and poked thru $1,400 resistance today. By Comex closing it had climbed $8.00 to $1,404.

Ladies and gentlemen, I love gold. I want everybody to shuck that paper that Wall Street and Washington fleece them with and buy some gold. But today merely constituted a countertrend rally in a downtrend. To gainsay that, the gold price would have to pierce its 20 DMA ($1,412.80) for starters, then clear $1,425, and keep right on climbing. I NEVER say "never," so won't say it this time, either, but I will say "right unlikely." Odds favor more downside for the gold price. 'Tain't the end of the world, it's just a correction.

The SILVER PRICE extended a sideways move today, but eroding. Comex lost 21.21c to close at 3426c. Low was 33.83, no lower than Tuesday or Wednesday, and that fell early in the day. But the silver price couldn't clear 3450c, although 3400c held up well.

I asked the Oracle of Dogwood Mudhole about silver, but he only said, "Make sure you finish one thing before you start another, and keep your fingers away from the business end of that mowing machine."

It's always chancy business translating for an Oracle, but the way I read that he's saying, the silver trend shows no sign of reversal yet, so just wait until it does, or you may feed your wallet into a garbage disposal. Or some such.

Underneath silver needs to remain above 3350c. It has no strong support before 3120c. 50 DMA stands around 3105c.

Rest easy, silver and gold prices are merely undergoing a correction, and no market shoots straight for the sky. Every now and then markets have to pause to digest the gains they've gobbled down.

The Japanese yen has jumped 8% in the last week and today hit an all time high against the dollar. The soaring yen has created trouble for them clever Harvard MBAs who were borrowing low-interest yen to invest elsewhere -- the yen carry trade. Suddenly the yen costs a lot more, and as they unwind those trades and scurry to cover those yen shorts, more fuel is added to the yen's fire. Will the Bank of Japan intervene to keep its currency from rising more? Can a duck swim? Is a pig's rear pork? Do crack- heads break and enter? Of course they will.

By the way, I confused y'all by quoting the yen two different ways. It is quoted as "yen per 100 cents" or "cents per 100 yen." If the "yen per 100 cents" rate is 79.26, then the "cents per 100 yen" rate is 100/.7926 = 126.2 yen. I'll try to restrain myself in the future.

The euro rose 0.7% today while the dollar got busy with a claw hammer and nails nailing shut the lid on its own coffin. Today it fell 69.1 basis points to 75.99, that is, below the March low. One must conclude that the moonstruck dollar has decided to visit 75.60, then 70.70.

The earthquake did not do this, the Federal Reserve did.

My-o-my-dee-my! US stocks rallied today, and y'all can expect the Wall Street cheerleaders to be crowing and preening tomorrow, doing their best to lure more victims to their financial destruction. The Dow continues its Speedy-Slinky descent to Avernus. Today the Dow gained 161.29 to 11,774.59 (up 1.39%) while the S&P500 bent over, grabbed its bootstraps, and pulled itself up 16.84 points (1.34%) to 1,273.72.

For years and years I was an unteachable fool and kept on drawing to inside straits and making bets that could not possibly pay off. I bought my learning dear. Now I'm not so much proud that I've learned a little something as I am sorry for all those folks who are constantly deceived by "gurus" and kept away from catching on. Institutions and media work together to keep them victimized, so they can feed on them.

Take well known radio Financial guru A. A has done a fine job getting people out of debt, and if he'd just stick to that, he'd bless folks. But, no, he discovered stocks in the early 1990s -- without discovering the principle of the primary trend -- made money, and confounded a bull market with investing genius. Hence 11 years into a bear market he's still sending his victims into stocks and bad-mouthing gold, because nobody ever taught him the first principle of investing, "always align your investments with the primary trend."

Stocks remain the industrial-strength ipecac in the Investment Medicine Cabinet.

A kind Greek wrote to clean my plow over the astonishing mistake I made yesterday. Cretan Knossos was not part of the Mycenaean civilization, but a precursor perhaps brought down by the Mycenaeans.

The culture on ancient Crete is properly called "Minoan" after the legendary king. It flourished in the Bronze Age from about the 27th century B.C. to the 15th century B.C. It may have met its final end thanks to a gigantic volcanic eruption.

Or to invasion by the Mycenaeans from the Greek mainland. The Mycenaean period in Greece was also in the Bronze Age, lasting from 1600 B.C. to 1100 B.C., and is probably the setting of Homer's epics.

To confound the Minoan with the Mycenaean is to make just a tiny mistake of, Oh, a millennium. What's a thousand years among friends?

But don't let my ignorant mistake scare you. If you EVER get a chance to visit Greece or Crete, go! It's worth the trip for the Kalamata olives alone, but when you add all the history and ruins and artifacts and the kind people, it becomes the trip of a lifetime.

This day in 1905 Eleanor Roosevelt married Franklin D. Roosevelt. Now here's a question that would stump a log: which one got the worst deal?

On this day in 1921 Comrade Lenin declared the New Economic Policy. The zealous Reds had installed communism in Russia successfully, with only one drawback: the economy collapsed. To gain breathing room Lenin lifted the controls long enough for the Russians' naturally enterprising natures to supply markets again thru small businesses, farms, etc. Agricultural production soared and the economy briefly recovered, but the policy was abandoned in 1928 by Comrade Stalin. Once again, history proves that socialism/communism can only produce two things in abundance: shortages and executions.

Hey, wait a minute! Isn't a national central bank like the Federal Reserve one plank in the Communist Manifesto? And wouldn't that mean that we have a, well, you-know-what kind of economy?

SHHHHHH. Someone may be listening in Homeland Security. Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --

-- Silver and gold must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.