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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Gold Price Close Below $1,520 Pretty Well Seals the End of this Leg Up, Piercing $1540 Would Lengthen the Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1535.90
Change : (0.40) or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 38.303
Change : 0.446 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.10
Change : -0.483 or -1.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02494
Change : 0.000297 or 1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1832.90
Change : 34.40 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 777.55
Change : 20.05 or 2.6%

S&P 500 : 1,345.30
Change : 14.10 or 1.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $169.18
Change : $ 1.79 or 1.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.184
Change : 0.086 or 1.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 328.17
Change : -0.48 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,569.79
Change : 128.21 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index : 74.61
Change : -0.344 or -0.5%

"Yackety-yak!"

"Don't talk back!"

Thus ran the repeated refrain of a 1950s' rock 'n roll song, the response of a resentful teenage son to his mother's demands he clean up and do his chores. The "Don't Talk Back" came in a deep bass voice.

Why do I recall this silly song when I look at the currency markets? Why do I feel it's all a silly ping pong game full of "sound and fury, signifying nothing"? Well, because it probably is. Look: Greece teeters on the knife-edge -- and it’s one sharp knife -- of defaulting, the first in a row of dominos-on-edge that will take down Ireland, Portugal, France, Italy, and the French and Italian mega-banks. Now if you had as much sense as a hard crab, you would flee Euros and buy gold or silver or whale oil or anything with value independent of the European financial and banking system.

Yet, LO! What gentle scene breaketh upon our vexed eyes? Why, the US dollar index, sinking out of sight with the sun, down today 0.78% or 60.9 basis points to 74.94. Wait, wait, while I was writing this it sank to 74.547, down another 41.1 basis points or 0.53%.

That's below the uttermost support at 74.90 and turns the dollar down.

But that doesn't really give me double vision. Rather, it's the euro up at closing 0.52% at 1.4396, gapping up above its 50 and 20 day moving averages. I know I'm supposed to look only at technicals, but ignoring fundamentals here is like visiting with somebody who keeps a 55 gallon garbage can open and fermenting in the living room, but never says anything about it. Friends, there is simply no reason the euro ought to rise, but for the actions of the Nice Government Men in the central banks. Yes, the euro is rising and the dollar is falling, but only way to account for it is the euro NGM jacking up the euro in advance of a financial panic nearly equal to the US panic in 2008.

This irks me constantly, like wearing a collar made out of nettles. It's all just a lie, a farce, a sham: paper money -- don't go to hell without it.

STOCKS today seemed to have fun anyway. Dow rose 128.21 (1.03%) to 12,569.79. S&P gained 1.065, 14.1 points, to 1,345.30. This did not much alter stocks' value against gold, but it looks nice for the sheep who must be deceived away from panicking out of the dollar and its instruments.

Technically -- yes, that's not controversial, stick with that, Moneychanger -- stocks rose to their 20 DMA (12,568.62) and closed over it by a gnat's eyelash at 12,569.79. That's hardly a rounding error, yet it is "above" the 20 DMA, first warning tripwire of higher prices. I reckon stocks will rally for a while longer, but they are running out of time like your vacation station wagon with a hole in the gas tank.

Stocks remain the absinthe in the Investment Liquor Store. Go ahead: have another glass of wormwood.
I'm not really having a liverish day, it just makes me bilious always to observe the jobbing manipulations of central banks. Let me move on to that arena in which their tricks so often explode in their faces: silver and gold.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES disagreed today, never a heartening sign. By Comex close the SILVER PRICE had risen 44.6c to 3830.3c while the GOLD PRICE fell 40c to $1,535.90. If you could see that as a curve, for the GOLD PRICE it resembles a cricket ball cast straight up in the air at that point in its apogee that it appears to hover, to pause, to wallow in indecision whether it will rise further or now fall.

BICBW. Maybe the GOLD PRICE is merely gathering its strength and breathing deep to push through $1,535 resistance. Yesterday was flat to lightly higher, stymied at 1,540. Likewise today gold made several attempts to beat down that $1,540 wall, but in the end failed and fell back. Support lies underneath at $1,530 and more strongly at $1,525. A close below $1,520 pretty well seals the end of this leg up. On the other hand, piercing $1,540 would lengthen the rally.

All this implies that lower prices lie in the future.

The silver price had what I might call a "vibratory" day. It bounced between 3874c and 3831c back and forth, yet without progress. In fact, it regressed a tad.

Let me speak plainly. If silver trades down below 3790c, 'twill drop to 3750. If that line holds not, then allies and supporters will vanish and silver will revisit recent lows. Of course, trading up above 3874c would change all that and tells us that silver intends to keep climbing for a while.

Never confuse my comments about what I expect for markets in the short term with the longer term. Silver and gold remain in a bull market (primary uptrend) that will last another 3 - 10 years, depending on government and central bank stupidity. And in the next 30 days, UNLESS a financial panic takes hold in Europe, you will see the lows for this correction, if we have not already seen them.

By the way, anent the Memorial Day Holiday, I don't have to remind y'all that Memorial Day, like music, grits, radio, Nascar, electricity, anesthesia, submarines, good manners, and nuclear power, was a Southern invention, do I?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, May 27, 2011

Gold Price Above its Last Intraday High at $1,526.20, Sets it up for a Further Rise

Gold Price Close Today : 1,536.30
Gold Price Close 20-May : 1,508.80
Change : 27.50 or 1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 3785.7
Silver Price Close 20-May : 3508.2
Change : 277.50 or 7.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.582
Gold Silver Ratio 20-May : 43.008
Change : -2.43 or -5.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02464
Silver Gold Ratio 20-May : 0.02325
Change : 0.00139 or 6.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 167.41
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-May : $ 171.43
Change : $ (4.02) or -2.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.098
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-May : 8.293
Change : -0.19 or -2.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 328.65
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-May : 356.65
Change : -28.00 or -7.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,441.58
Dow Industrial 20-May : 12,512.04
Change : -70.46 or -0.6%

S&P 500 : 1,331.10
S&P 500 20-May : 1,333.27
Change : -2.17 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 74.940
US Dollar Index 20-May : 75.493
Change : -0.553 or -0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,798.50
Platinum Price Close 20-May : 1,771.10
Change : 27.40 or 1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 757.50
Palladium Price Close 20-May : 736.30
Change : 21.20 or 2.9%


Sorry I missed sending a commentary yesterday, but a storm sent a tree crashing into the side of our house and (I thought) intended to sweep us away to glory, too. Power went down Wednesday night and has been dark since. Worse, we are at the end of the utility company's line, and aren't expected to have power until tomorrow. Got a few computers up on a generator, and by the grace of God are still alive and present for duty.

At the end of the week, the SILVER PRICE scored big, the GOLD PRICE gained a significant leg over resistance, stocks went nowhere, and the dollar index is betraying its friends again.

Right now GOLD is the stronger of the precious metals, so we watch it instead of SILVER. Today gold smashed $1,525 resistance , cleared $1,530 which stopped it yesterday, then raced to a high at $1,538.1. Comex rose $13.50 to $1,536.30.

That close pushes gold above its last intraday high at $1,526.20, and sets it up for a further rise. Logical target is the last intraday high at $1,575.10. That's the optimistic outlook. The pessimistic outlook sees the last two weeks' rally as only the up leg of an A-down, B-up, C-down correction that, for all its muscularity, will fade and fall to a lower low than the bottom of A-down.

Because past corrections have left a strong patter of bottoming 33 days or more after a peak, I have to expect to see lower prices yet, but feel very nervous on that side of a bullish gold market.

Yesterday silver was taken to the woodshed. After a 3875c overnight high it fell to a 3625c low, but spent 2/3 of the day climbing, recouping lost ground. In the early overnight trading it hit 3800+, and a high for the day at 3817c. However, silver was chained in a range today between 3817 and 3748c. It did close up 53.7c on Comex at 3785.7c, but the last three days' trading has also issued silver's marching orders: beat 3875c, or retreat.

Silver's chart seems not nearly as enthusiastic as gold's. Silver has crossed above it 20 DMA (3668c), but not been able to climb over its 50 DMA (3919c), although certainly it has been rolling over and outside the previous downtrend line. Silver could rally to 3946c (last intraday high) and quit, or or could pass that. Ahh, but the crystal ball darkens. On the one hand we have silver's present strength, on the other the risk that it might be merely tracing out a B-wave in a correction bound to take another plunge. For now momentum sides with silver rising. I would remain, however, a tad leery of full commitment. Y'all know what "full commitment" means, right? The chicken and the cow are committed to breakfast, but the pig is FULLY committed.

MILE MARKERS: The SILVER PRICE above 3950c brings a longer, higher rally. The silver price below 3650c will drop to a new low, perhaps to the 200 DMA (now 2972c).

Bear in mind that June and July bring in their fragrant hands silver's lows for the year, and that lows remain due from that top on 29 April.

US DOLLAR INDEX passed a rough week. After last Friday's intraday peak at 76.37, it trended lower all week, finally today punching through the 50 day moving average (75.02) and the 20 day (74.970). Stinks. Why? Because that 75 level has been the fish-or-cut-bait resistance/support level for some time. If the dollar sinks through that, well, its rally has probably been foiled.

Euro jumped up today to 1.4292, up 1.08%. Maybe news happened, maybe not, but technically this did no more than push the euro toward, not all the way to, its 50 dma (1.4345). One might guess the euro is trying to turn up, but it would be an anticipatory guess. Yen closed up 0.6% and is now trading at 80.857 (123.65c/Y100).

Stocks wrestled today with resistance from 12,400 - 12,450, and closed toward the top of the range. Tear the top off the chart and tell us what it says: a series of lower highs and lower lows, below its 20 DMA (12,580) and has just spent 5 days dancing with the 50 DMA (12,436.91), today barely closed above 50 DMA. No breakout above downtrend line, momentum indicators down or MIGHT be turning up. Diagnosis: headed much further down until an upward break through the downtrend line confirms a change, followed by a close above 12,600.

Dow today closed at 12,441.58, up 38.82, joined by the S&P500 at 1,331.10, up 5.41.

The one thing most in favor of buying stocks is that it puts you into partnership with the US government, who thru its ever vigilant Nice Government Men stands always ready to fight the pull of gravity and try to levitate the market. So, if you want to partner up with the ever-trustworthy US government and their manipulations, buy stocks. That's sort of like going into the cleaning business with Al Capone, when you own the dry cleaner shop and he's furnishing "protection."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, May 26, 2011

Gold Price Closed Today at $1522.80

Gold Price Close Today : 1,522.80
Change : -3.80 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.32
Change : -.31 or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,778.10
Change : -1.70 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 757.20
Change : 9.85 or 1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.80
Change : 0.25 or 1.01%

Dow Industrial : 12,402.76
Change : 8.10 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 75.54
Change : -0.37 or -0.5%

Franklin Sanders has not posted any commentary today, will update it here if he does later in the day.



Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Gold Price Momentum Remains Momentarily Up, But Must be Confirmed

Gold Price Close Today : 1526.60
Change : 3.40 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.640
Change : 1.519 or 4.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.56
Change : -1.611 or -3.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02466
Change : 0.000942 or 4.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1780.50
Change : 14.50 or 0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 740.40
Change : 2.85 or 0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,320.47
Change : 4.19 or 0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $167.84
Change : $ 0.16 or 0.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.119
Change : 0.008 or 0.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 329.29
Change : -12.78 or -3.7%

Dow Industrial : 12,394.66
Change : 38.45 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 75.89
Change : 0.100 or 0.1%

STRONG day for the SILVER PRICE, not so strong for everything else.

Although both SILVER and GOLD PRICES rose today, they didn't exactly agree. The GOLD PRICE rose a modest $3.40 to close Comex at $1,526.60. Yes, yes, higher than yesterday but not clear of that $1,525 resistance area. Tried once to clear it and stopped at $1,532. Today's work doesn't precisely disqualify gold from advancing tomorrow -- after all, it might reasonably have trouble with that $1,525 resistance for a day or so. However, on a longer term chart it has that double-toppy look with that last peak at $1,526.20 (intraday).

If the GOLD PRICE intends to climb more, tomorrow it will need to close above $1,530. Trading below $1,518 will hurt, and below $1,505 will positively wound. The gold price remains above its 20 DMA (1,512) so momentum remains momentarily up, but must be confirmed.

The silver price got into the liquor cabinet today and went hog wild. Gained 151.9c on Comex to wind up there at 3764c. Overnight the silver price wrestled with and hogtied 3650c, then beat feet for 3800c. High today came at 3797c and low at 3626c.

The silver price has now come plumb up to its 20 dma (3773c) first tripwire of an upmove. Just above at 3905c hovers the 50 DMA. If silver could clear BOTH of those, every speculator in the world would come running to buy. That's why 3900c is critical, and liable to become the Rally Stopper. Arguing against that are momentum indicators which have reversed to point upward.

The silver price will no doubt probe tomorrow toward that 3900c barrier, but I do doubt it will surmount that barrier. BICBW

Want to know what I meant yesterday about 40 miles of dominos falling when Greece defaults? Read this: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100010332/what-happens-when-greece-defaults/

US DOLLAR INDEX didn't bother exercising today, but bounced between 75.75 and 76.256 like a sleepy moth in a gallon jug, finally landing about 75.90. Dollar has done nothing but establish 75.80-ish as support. If it falls through that all the work done earlier this week will evaporate. Still, it made a bottom and is trending up, so ought to resolve to the upside.

Euro dropped a bit today, closing 1.4095, a mostly symbolic drop, but in the grips of a plunge. 'Twill resume. Yen closed at Y82.,10/$ (121.80c/Y100), earning neither cheers nor jeers.

STOCKS peeked above 12,400 resistance as if trying to make up a mind to rise, but remaining unconvinced. High today came at 12,440, about where resistance stands for the past three days, with one toe one skosh over the line. Dow at least turned around and instead of losing gained 38.45 to end at 12,394.66. S&P gained 4.19 to 1,320.47.

Stocks have probably turned up, but a close tomorrow beneath 12,300 gainsays that and sends them tumbling.

Up, down, I don't care which way they go. Doesn't attract me any more than signing up for kazoo lessons in Kazhakstan -- it's a bear market and I never want to own a bear market.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Gold Price Must Clear $1,525 Tomorrow or Lose all Momentum and Fall to Earth

Gold Price Close Today : 1495.60
Change : 15.80 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.094
Change : 1.606 cents or 4.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.62
Change : -1.572 or -3.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02346
Change : 0.000835 or 3.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1767.50
Change : 2.70 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 736.00
Change : 15.55 or 2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,340.68
Change : 11.70 or 0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.60
Change : $ (0.71) or -0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.398
Change : -0.034 or -0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 357.90
Change : -14.76 or -4.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,560.18
Change : 80.60 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 75.43
Change : 0.026 or 0.0%

The GOLD PRICE has now bumped its head against the top of its resistance range. It reached $1,527.50 today, but retreated only to $1,520, having now ratcheted over $1,515 resistance. At Comex close gold had risen $7.90 to $1,523.20. In euros Gold has hit new highs the last two days.

Time to fish or cut bait. GOLD PRICE must clear $1,525 tomorrow or lose all momentum and fall to earth. It has plenty going for it, as yesterday it climbed over the 20 DMA fence ($1,512). Above $1,525 lies almost no resistance until the last high at $1,575.10.

Expect to witness GOLD higher tomorrow.

The SILVER PRICE blew past 3550c like the Trans-Siberian Express and hardly slowed all day. Comex close at 3612.1, even though 122c higher than yesterday hardly tells the tale I am looking at on the chart. In the aftermarket the SILVER PRICE rose another 60c! Now at 3673c.

When a market pierces what has been stubborn resistance -- in this case, 3550c, and blasts higher, that is a "breakout," and only rarely do they fizzle in the first days. Oh, silver may back and fill a little tomorrow, but as long as it remains above 3600c, twill climb toward the sky's vault.

I have trouble getting through on this point, so I'll say it again, LOUDER: NEVER BUY PREMIUM. Over time, premium always disappears. You will not get back those premium dollars at market peak, so always buy whatever silver or gold is cheapest at the moment. Case in point: At wholesale (not retail) US 90% silver coin costs 61c an ounce LESS than spot silver, while silver American Eagles cost 450c OVER spot today. Why would anybody buy silver American Eagles? Cause they don't know no better, I reckon, but it makes no sense to me at all. I've been watching for 31 years, and over time premium always disappears. Today's premiums will, too.

My minimum target for this rally -- assuming the SILVER PRICE closes higher again tomorrow -- is the 50 dma at 3900c.

Yesterday the US Dollar Index proved its upward course by rising over 76 as high as 76.30. Today it backed off, and is trading now at 75.907, down 19.7 basis points (1/4 of 1%), but that's to be expected after yesterday. Notice how the Dollar Index is ratcheting up: it slowly reaches a level, is blocked there a day or so, then breaches that level and jumps higher. When it backs off, the former resistance -- or higher -- acts as support. Dollar will reach at least its 200 DMA (78.10) before this rally ends.

The euro gapped down yesterday, then filled the gap today. Tomorrow will likely move down again. Closed today at 1.4100, up 0.3%, but has sunk below its 20 and 50 day moving average. More than that, y'all can hardly picture in your minds what a mess will result if Greece defaults. Think 40 miles of dominos. Clearly the European Nice Government Men are doing a yeoman's job manipulating that euro, otherwise it would be 3 or 4 to the dollar. If Greece defaults, who will bail out the German and French banks? After all, every country in the world exists only to serve the banks, nicht wahr? I admire the way the banks' propaganda machine has filled the Germans with a self-righteous assurance that it's all the fault of those free-spending southerners, when in fact they are being bled exactly as the southerners are, only from a different vein.

Japanese yen did nothing much today. Trading now at Y81.93/$ (122.06c/Y100).

STOCKS are wallowing in deep mire. Today the Dow and S&P500 both hammered through their 50 day moving averages (12,397 and 1,326). Dow lost 25.05 points to end at 12,356.21 and S&P500 dropped 1.09 to 1,316.28. Either stocks reverse tomorrow or they have a long fall in front of them. Momentum points firmly down still.

More interesting by far the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) that measures stocks against gold, broke down today through the uptrend line stretching back 11 months. The DiG$ closed at G$167.69 (8.112 oz). Last remotely possible barrier is G$164.47 (7.956 oz). When the DiG$ clears that it will drop to G$147 (7.111 oz). Oddly enough, silver was strong today while stocks were weak. In general, although not always day by day, silver outperforms gold when stocks are strong, and underperforms when stocks are weak.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, May 20, 2011

Once Silver and Gold Price Bottom this Time - They Will Not Revisit these Prices for the Rest of the Bull Market

Gold Price Close Today : 1,508.80
Gold Price Close 13-May : 1,493.40
Change : 15.40 or 1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3508.2
Silver Price Close 13-May : 3501.1
Change : 7.10 or 0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.008
Gold Silver Ratio 13-May : 42.655
Change : 0.35 or 0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02325
Silver Gold Ratio 13-May : 0.02344
Change : -0.00019 or -0.8%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ -
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-May : $ 174.35
Change : $ (174.35) or -100.0%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 0.000
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-May : 8.434
Change : -8.43 or -100.0%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 0.00
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-May : 359.77
Change : -359.77 or -100.0%

Dow Industrial : 0.00
Dow Industrial 13-May : 12,595.75
Change : -12595.75 or -100.0%

S&P 500 : 0.00
S&P 500 13-May : 1,337.77
Change : -1337.77 or -100.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.493
US Dollar Index 13-May : 75.723
Change : -0.230 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,771.10
Platinum Price Close 13-May : 1,765.00
Change : 6.10 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 736.30
Palladium Price Close 13-May : 709.00
Change : 27.30 or 3.9%


This week warns you that SILVER and GOLD PRICES have gotten tired of falling and are pondering turning around. Not completed, and we'll probably see more downside, but they're digging in their heels. Dollar has gone sideways all week, stocks tried to gain but made no headway. Platinum and Palladium seconded silver and gold.

After touching back toward the last low ($1,462) at a low of $1,472 on Tuesday, GOLD pushed thru resistance at $1,500 and $1,505 to reach 1,515 today. Comex closed $1,508.80, up $16.60.

The road forks here. To the left the GOLD PRICE keeps climbing, tussling with $1,515 and $1,525 resistance, maybe hitting $1,530, then falling back lower than it has yet done. On the other fork, the GOLD PRICE fails beginning Monday at $1,515, then drops swiftly to a new low. Ultimate low either way will look like $1,445, $1,400, or $1,380. Look for that low sometime before 15 June, but by end-June latest.

Ahhh, SILVER. Like gold, silver made a spike bottom on Tuesday, at 3300c. It rallied sharply from there -- I call 45 degrees "sharply" to 3560c, then Thursday and Friday moved sideways. Today somebody tried to knock silver out about 10:00 a.m., but failed. Dropped down to 3419c then shot up like a basketball held under water, clean to 3540c, but fell back to 3508.2c at Comex close, 15.5c higher than yesterday.

The SILVER PRICE might rally up to 3900, its 50 DMA, then still turn and make a lower low. I more than half expect to see it reach its 200 dma (now 29.17 and rising 9c/day). MACD and RSI are itching to turn up, but I am still holding out.

BICBW -- silver might shoot right past the last high at 3946c and keep on travelling. Not very likely, but possible.

Once silver and gold bottom this time, by end-June, they will not revisit these prices for the rest of the bull market. That's your shot, last train leaving the station before the Russians take Berlin, and you'd better run and catch it.

The corrupt, scrofulous, and preposterous US DOLLAR generally moved sideways this week. After making a new low today at 74.957 on a spike bottom, it rocketed up to 75.76, then settled back to 75.493. Here in the last few minutes it's risen to 75.637, but I'm too lazy to go back and change my price sheet.

At 75.637 the dollar index is 51.4 basis points higher than yesterday or up 0.66%, a respectable move. Yet all the smoke, sound, and fury only returns the dollar to the 75.80 barrier that sent it along this week's detour. Dollar spent the week skiing along its 50 DMA (now 75.09), and today sets it up to challenge 76 next week. Expect to see it beat that mark, and struggle along toward 77. The sorry dollar is rallying -- until it stops.

After reaching high on tippy-toe and touching its 50 DMA (1.4328), the euro exhausted all its strength and moral and fell today to 1.4173, down 0.96%. Clearly the euro had better learn to swim, because right now it is sinking. The currency of the Land of the Rising Sun is also sinking slowly below the horizon and almost below its 50 DMA. Yen closed today at Y81.63/$ (122.50c/Y100), down 0.05%.

STOCKS teased and tweaked their supporters this week, then reneged today. After rising 45 yesterday, the Dow sank 92.38 today to end the week at 12,512.04, down 0.74% today. S&P500 dropped 10.33 (0.77%) to 1,333.27. All other stock indices fell today as well.

For the Dow 12,600 has become the unconquerable roadblock, covered by state cops and SWAT teams. If it backs up past 12,380, it'll back clean off the road and down the mountainside.

Dow's 20 DMA stands at 12,648, so if it can clear that it will attract a lot of riders. Still possible it pushes to one last top above 13,000. Break thru the 50 DMA (12,383) will speed it earthward.

Stocks -- they're the arm garters and celluloid collars in the Investment Department Store.

Against gold, by the way, stocks tried all week to rally, and failed completely. DiG$ today closed thru the bottom of the range at G$171.43 (8.293 oz). Very bottom of the longer term range is G$167.44 (8.10 oz).

Against silver stocks have risen from 261.76 oz. at end-April to a high of 377.06 to today's 356.65. Stocks appear to have rolled over against silver, and are about to get cheaper in silver.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, May 19, 2011

A Bottom in the Gold Price Lies not too Far Distant, but not yet, not yet.

Gold Price Close Today : 1492.20
Change : (3.40) or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.927
Change : (0.167) or -0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.72
Change : 0.106 or 0.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02341
Change : -0.000058 or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1766.40
Change : 5.90 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 726.60
Change : -9.40 or -1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,340.86
Change : 0.18 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.31
Change : $ 0.49 or 0.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.432
Change : 0.024 or 0.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 360.26
Change : 1.87 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,582.81
Change : 5.47 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.50
Change : -0.372 or -0.5%

Editors Note: We apologies for the errors in the gold price data in Franklin Sanders commentary yesterday which was caused by a software glitch when we format his commentary and through no fault of Franklin Sanders. We have now resolved this glitch and it wont happen again.

For all its weaseling and waffling, the US DOLLAR INDEX has been skating along above its 50 day moving average, and that's fundamentally positive. Today it dropped off 32.9 basis points (0.42%) to test the limits of support at 75.10. Breaking below 75. will crush morale and send the buck hurtling toward 72.50.

By falling this far the dollar has clouded its own future, and will have to conquer 76 to seduce followers.

It's not as if the euro were an attractive alternative to the dollar. It clearly topped early in May and remains BELOW its 50 DMA, setting its direction firmly down. Today closed at 1.4311, up 0.46%.

The yen today cut through its 50 DMA, then bounced up. Closed up 0.06% at Y81.587/$ (122.57c/Y100).

STOCKS advance raggedly. At the close the Dow had garnered 45.14 new points to end higher at 12,605.32, but the day's chart tells another story: up, down, up down, but on the whole higher. S&P500 also gained, 2.92 points, to end at 1,343.60.

Now the Dow has reached the 12,600 barrier -- reached but not breached. May make one last high before it breathes its bearish last. Just above today's close at 12,648 lies the Dow's 20 DMA. I'm not the only one who can look at a chart, so expect enthusiasm and higher prices if the Dow manages to conquer that level.

Some people want to own stocks. Some people think cheetahs can be made into pets, too, and anacondas and Tasmanian devils.

Against gold stocks have built into a tighter and tighter triangle which should break down soon.

The GOLD PRICE stubbornly refuses to co-operate in the least with any bearish outlook. Sure, it lost $3.40 today and closed Comex at $1,492.20, but more pertinent than that little loss was staying above $1,490 support. That down spike on Tuesday has an upside down head-and-shoulderish look that implies the gold price will rally to $1,415 or $1,420 before the hydrogen leaks out of its balloon.

I stayed up until 2:30 a.m. last night staring at charts and sorting numbers. Conclusion is that a bottom lies not too far distant, but not yet, not yet.

Nor did I leave SILVER out of last night's fun. Imagine a problem in three unknowns -- gold, silver, and the ratio, and they do NOT all peak and trough together. But the timing gives a hint, the days elapsed in the past to reach a bottom.

Silver passed a quiet day with a mere 120c range from 3451c to 3571c. Can't make up my mind after today's trading whether silver will poke through 3450c and plunge, or whether 'twill roll upwards. If it moves higher than 3570c, we'd have our clue higher prices are coming, for a little rally to 3800c at least, then another fall. Likely a bottom lies not much more than four weeks in the future.

Yet again I warn y'all, break those piggy banks and dig through your couches for change, because when silver hits this low you want to spend everything you can rake and scrape on it.

On this day in 1993 the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 3,500. On this day in 1989, oddly enough, the Dow closed above 2,500 for the first time. In January 2000 it topped at 11,722, four and two-thirds time the 1989 marvel at 2,500. Bear that in mind when you meditate silver and gold. The curve is accelerating.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Gold Price hasn't Posted its Bottom Yet

Gold Price Close Today : 1495.60
Change : 15.80 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.094
Change : 1.606 or 4.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.62
Change : -1.572 or -3.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02346
Change : 0.000835 or 3.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1767.50
Change : 2.70 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 736.00
Change : 15.55 or 2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,340.68
Change : 11.70 or 0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.60
Change : $ (0.71) or -0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.398
Change : -0.034 or -0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 357.90
Change : -14.76 or -4.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,560.18
Change : 80.60 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 75.43
Change : 0.026 or 0.0%



Editors Note: We apologies for the errors in the gold price data in Franklin Sanders commentary today which was caused by a software glitch when we format his commentary and through no fault of Franklin Sanders. We have now resolved this glitch and it wont happen again.

Well, Candide, it was the best of all possible worlds today. Everything went up.

Dollar index was knocked off its 75.40 limb, fell as 75.13, but clawed its tomcat way clean up to 75.425, a gigantical 2.6 basis points above yesterady. That may end the dollar's woes for a few days. However, should the dollaar fall below todays 75.13 low, it will disappoint its fans and sink like your car keys out of your shirt pocket when you lean over the gunwale of the bassboat.

Even the Franken-currency, the euro, climbed today, to 1.4238, up 0.01%, barely visible. Yen, on the other hand, fell another 0.33% to Y81.69/$ (122.41c/Y100).

The Dow reversed today and climbed steadily 80.60 points to 12,560.18. Resisance reaches from 12,550 clean to 12,650. Maybe this begins the last push up. S&P500 joined the fun, adding 11.7 to close at 1,340.68.

As the old saying goes, lean on that weak reed and it will pierce your hand. Stay away from stocks. They are the poison oak in the Nursery of Investment Plants.

By the way, the Dow in Gold Dollars, which measures stocks by gold, remains below its 200 day moving average (DMA), therefore trending lower.

SILVER and GOLD came out shaking their heads and lusting for revenge. They got it.

Gold's low yesterday became the springboard for a rally today. From yesteray noon gold steadily gained, reacyhing the disputed $1,490 level. Today it went battering against he gate at $1,500, but without breaking it down. After a sudden rise -- what do you call that? Escalation? More like levitation -- aboiut 9:45, gold soared clean to $1,500, tried thrice to pierce it and failed, then fell off. Comex close found gold up $1,5.80 at $1,495.60.

Five day chart is in rallying mode, but blocking the path stands $1,500. Above that is $1,505. More broadly, none of this back and forth gains any credit until gold betters $1,525. Yes, it's exciting, but essentially merely burns up ammunition. Can't know it was valuable until it tops one of those big numbers. Today's chart whispers that $1,515 is possible in the next two days. Still I suspect, fun as all this may be, that gold hasn't posted is bottom yet.

From its 3300c low about noon yesterday silver went sild today. From a 3411c low it reached 3524c today, and closed near that at 3509.40 on Comex, up a glorious 160.6c, an eyegoggling 4.8%!

Aftermarket has remained high at 3613c.

SILVER took its vengeance on the shorts today, and could punish them all the way up to 3800c and the 20 DMA, or 3900c and the 50 DMA. Yet one feareth that the ultimate low has not yet had time to appear. Today's rally might also vanish like mist tomorrow, since the momentum indicators have not turned up to confirm a rally.

If y'all have read my website, www.the-moneychanger.com, you know that I am death on paying premium on any silver and gold. Still people call wanting to buy silver American Eagles or Canadian Maple Leaves or silver rounds, when they could buy the more useful and divisible US 90% silver coin for less than 2% over its silver content. Yet they will push right past that to pay $4 an ounce or more for silver American Eagles. Listen, read, mark, learn and inwardly digest this principle: OVER TIME, PREMIUM ALWAYS DISAPPEARS. You will NOT recapture those premium dollars when you sell at the peak, I don't care what any dealer trying to sell out of his inventory tells you. I've been doing this 31 years this year, and I have watched: Over time, premium always disappears, so don't buy premium. Get the most silver and gold you can get for your money.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Prepare to Load up on Silver and Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 1479.80
Change : (10.60) or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 33.488
Change : (0.641) or -1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 44.19
Change : 0.519 or 1.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02263
Change : -0.000269 or -1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1764.80
Change : 3.60 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 720.45
Change : 9.45 or 1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,328.98
Change : -0.49 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $178.10
Change : $ 0.33 or 0.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.616
Change : 0.016 or 0.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 380.72
Change : 5.13 or 1.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,749.58
Change : -68.79 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.41
Change : -0.640 or -0.8%

It is rotten cold here. What's the matter? It's May, and last night we went to our grandsons' ball games and like to froze to death. Nature isn't living up to our expectations, or maybe it's global warming. The gummint needs to do something, pass a law or arrest Jack Frost or something.

Here's another red herring y'all will hear more of: the "crash" in silver and gold and commodities signals that the US is about to enter a "deflationary" depression. Folks who believe this haven't been paying close attention the last 11 years, or they might have noticed the Fed printing money like a mangy dog scratching fleas every time any financial crisis dared raise even the pate of its head. If I'm wrong, we'll all sink together, but in one thing I trust the Fed: they WILL inflate.

TODAY'S MARKETS

GOLD did little to encourage its partisans today. Support had been coalescing around $1,488 - $1,490 but when New York opened this morning even the cockroaches in the woodwork were selling. A waterfalling price poured down until it hit the pool at $1,475.80 about 11:30. Then began a modest and restrained bounce that splashed on $1,485. Final score on Comex was down $10.60 to $1,479.80, but trading now at $1,482.30.

Y'all have to learn to be realists looking at charts. As my friend Bob the Technical Genius says, tear the top of the chart and tell me how it looks then. Can't let your position do the talking for you. Today's descent blasted any potential even-sided triangle from which gold might stage a rally. The $1,475.80 low didn't touch the $1,466.44 fifty DMA, but it scared it pretty badly. Market like this will follow thru downside, pierce that 50 DMA and take another tumble as that milestone terrifies the bettors. $1,380 is looking closer, BICBW.

Nothing encouraging about SILVER'S chart, either. Imprisoned in a downtrend channel from Friday's high, silver vibrated from one side of the channel to the other like a canary trying to beat its way out of a jug.

Silver's chart resembles gold's, without the quota of drama. Opened in New York at 3396c, then fell to 9:30, bounced, and fell more to a 3312c low. Recovery from there wouldn't inspire you to light fireworks. Climbed as high as 3400c, but not thru. Last on Comex showed down 64.1c to 3348.8c. Rose in the aftermarket to 3380 - 3360c.

The SILVER PRICE now approacheth a congested area from 3121c to 2638c where on the way up it struggled to break free and spread its wings. Astraddle that region is the 200 DMA at 2900c today. Why mention the 200 DMA? Because it has so often in this bull market marked the limit, or nearabout, of silver's corrections. Of course the 300 dma (now 25.36) has more often marked the maximum limit of silver's dives.

Yet as puny as silver now appears, a sudden, vicious rally wouldn't surprise me, since momentum indicators suggest silver today has as many enemies as two weeks ago it had friends. If all those adversaries are short, they have set themselves up for a bad, if temporary, surprise.

Silver and gold prices are wallowing in a passing correction in a long term primary uptrend (bull market). That uptrend will persist another 3 to 10 years, so listen not neither heed the croakers and naysayers who squeek that the precious metals have been in a bubble. Tain't so. Prepare thyself to load up.

At the low today the Dow had sunk 169.53 points but by closing time had risen to only 68.79 down (0.55%) at 12,479.58. The S&P 500 took no such beating, dropping only 0.49 (0.04%) to 1,328.98. Odd disagreement.

Dow fell parlously close to its 50 day moving average at 12,357. That may signal a turnaround into one more rally. Or perhaps the mere nearness of the 50 DMA Kryptonite was enough to drive it up. S&P500 punched through its 50 DMA, but didn't close below it. 50 DMA has limited three of the past four corrections. That is, they reached that point and turned around.

That said, stocks remain the greasy brown ring around the Great Investment Bathtub.

US DOLLAR INDEX held on today, with a low of 75.38. Like some tomcat, the dollar has marked out its territory above 75.40, but whether it's mean enough and tough enough to hold it asks another question. Up above 75.80 blocks the dollar's climb. Looks like a market consolidating for another jump up.

Howbeit, just above 76 the dollar strikes the uptrend line running back to July 2008 which it ruptured on its way to the recent 72.69 low. Worse, it's also bumping against the downtrend line from the June 2010 high, for a second barrier. Unless the dollar can jump 76 and run like a scalded dog, we have to look for a garden-variety Final Kiss Good-bye wherein a broken market rises back to its breakdown point, busses it with a final kiss good-bye, then sinks out of sight.

Yet just like shooting craps in a back alley, never forget that currencies are a rigged game. Yea, clearly the Fed chose to let the dollar drop some years ago and cleaves still to its weak dollar policy, but for some transitory cause (a crisis in the yen or euro) might let the buck rise. This is known as the "Heads we win, tails you lose phenomenon."

The euro gained about 6/10% today to lodge at 1.4237, way below its 50 and 20 DMA and offering only little wiggles of promise it might one day come back. Must have been earthquakes in Japan today or everybody had a flat tire or something because the Yen gapped down by 0.7%. Now at Y81.42/$ (122.82c/Y100). Whate'er it be utimately, right now it's posing as a firm downturn.

At 10:00 a.m. on this day in 1792 the New York Stock Exchange was founded under the trees at 70 Wall Street by 24 brokers. By 10:02 they had successfully worked out how they would rig the market.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, May 16, 2011

Gold Price has Now Drawn a Plain Line at $1,488. If it Sinks Hereunder, Will Sink More

Gold Price Close Today : 1490.40
Change : (3.00) or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.129
Change : (0.882) or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.67
Change : 1.014 or 2.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02290
Change : -0.000545 or -2.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1761.20
Change : -3.80 or -0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 711.00
Change : 2.00 or 0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,329.47
Change : -8.30 or -0.6%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.05
Change : $ (0.29) or -0.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.419
Change : -0.014 or -0.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 367.67
Change : 7.91 or 2.2%

Dow Industrial : 12,548.37
Change : -47.38 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 75.50
Change : -0.372 or -0.5%

While gold's action today might have seemed exciting at moments, it was all a mere tease.

The GOLD PRICE climbed off Friday's low around $1,490, failed at $1,498, but then returned for another challenge and reached $1,504 resistance, where it fainted for the rest of the day. Low hit at $1,488.85, high at $1,504.36. The GOLD PRICE has now drawn a plain line at $1,488. If it sinks hereunder, will sink more.

Just a leetle footnote to that. I allow 'tis also conceivable that the gold price is forming an equilateral triangle, with lower highs and higher lows, which might (1) break out into a continuing rally, but (2) more likely will then fail and drive to a lower low than already has been posted. Ultimately longing for $1,445 or $1,380. BICBW

Comex GOLD today perched at $1,490.40, down $3.00 from Friday.

The SILVER PRICE didn't show itself even as peppy as bedraggled gold today. Tried to rally today but was whacked on the head at 3526c. Expect to see lower prices tomorrow, especially if it breaches 3350c, today's low. Down below that last low and support appears at 3235c.

Gold/Silver Ratio rose to 43.670.

Look over your shoulder: time is passing and price is adjusting. This could last another two to 7 weeks. May be interrupted by an impressive rally before it completes its correction.

Dollar index disappointed me a little today. Over the weekend it reached 76, but fell off today all the way to 75.248. Disappointing, but not mortally damaging. This 75.20 area has been support since last Wednesday at least, so let us guess that the dollar index will rise again tomorrow. Today's break probably arose from the dollar's first shock at beating its head against 76 resistance. It rallieth still, and remaineth above the 50 DMA. Euro bounced today, up 0.65% to 1.4176. Yen frittered, closed Y80.73/$ (123.86c/Y100).

STOCKS' daily chart once again looks like a bunch of rags hanging on a clothesline and beating in the wind -- up and down, up and more down, and at day's end giving up. Dow lost 47.38 (0.38%) to 12,548.37 and S&P500 gave up 8.3% (0.2%) to close at 1,329.47. Dow is flirting more and more with the deadly 12,500. There awaits a trapdoor and chute to the bottom.

Stocks -- don't head for the poorhouse without 'em!


It's always instructive when the outward moral corruption of institutions is publicly mirrored by the inward moral corruption of their principals.

So the IMF and its head, Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, French politico known at home as "The Seducer," who was for mysterious reasons political appointed head of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF is the enforcer institution of central banking which, after much moral posturing and blather about too much spending, goes in to "bail out" countries while in fact raping their economies.

Oddly enough, that's precisely what Mr. Strauss-Kahn is accused of in New York. Well, more precisely, a hotel chambermaid accused him of sexual assault resulting in charges including attempted rape, sexual abuse, forcible touching, and unlawful imprisonment. He allegedly trapped the victim in his hotel room, and so forth.

Now Mr. Strauss-Kahn, who allegedly pulled this same trick in France in 2002 but without the charges, deserves the presumption of innocence under our law. However, the New York court denied him bond, even bond of one million bucks, and one presumes he did SOMETHING to earn his nickname.

Zut alors! What did y'all expect from the Grand Poobah idols of central banking? Monasticism? Celibacy? Continence, temperance, and self-control? They RAPE countries, including the USA. Like vampires they suck the lifeblood out of nations. If that do that to nations in public view, what do you imagine they dare to do in private?

Rotten outside, rotten inside. "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." Abolish central banking, demolish the buildings, sow the ground with salt.

No peace with cancer!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, May 13, 2011

The Best Silver and Gold Buying Opportunity of the Next 10 years in the Next Three Months

Gold Price Close Today : 1,493.40
Gold Price Close 6-May : 1,491.20
Change : 2.20 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 3501.1
Silver Price Close 6-May : 3528.3
Change : -27.20 cents or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.655
Gold Silver Ratio 6-May : 42.264
Change : 0.39 or 0.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02344
Silver Gold Ratio 6-May : 0.02366
Change : -0.00022 or -0.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 174.35
Dow in Gold Dollars 6-May : $ 175.21
Change : $ (0.85) or -0.5%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.434
Dow in Gold Ounces 6-May : 8.476
Change : -0.04 or -0.5%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 359.77
Dow in Silver Ounces 6-May : 358.21
Change : 1.56 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,595.75
Dow Industrial 6-May : 12,638.74
Change : -42.99 or -0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,337.77
S&P 500 6-May : 1,340.20
Change : -2.43 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 75.723
US Dollar Index 6-May : 74.652
Change : 1.071 or 1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,765.00
Platinum Price Close 6-May : 1,777.00
Change : -12.00 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 709.00
Palladium Price Close 6-May : 706.10
Change : 2.90 or 0.4%


When you stand back and look at markets from a longer term view, sometimes odd things appear. Take this week: after all the huge volatility, especially in SILVER (253c range today alone!), markets barely moved. Okay, silver lost 27.2c, who's about to open a vein over that? GOLD gained 0.1%, etc., etc., all across the board. Only the much despised scrofulous US dollar gained much this week, 1.4%.

GOLD is fiddling around forming a sort of even-sided triangle bounded by successively higher lows and lower highs. These patterns break out either way, but more downside seems certain. We could, however, see one of those correction uplegs that are so cocky and muscular that they leave you believing the worst must be over, just before they collapse, evaporate, and zero your account.

Market moves, rises or falls, fulfill a fate of time and price. Both must be fulfilled. In silver and gold these corrections usually last 30 - 90 days before they find a bottom. Could happen faster, because strange forces are loose here, but gold has not even broken its 50 DMA yet (now $1,464.16). Not much of a rabid correction, that.

The GOLD PRICE today ranged from $1,516.40 to $1,483.50, a fat band for gold. Comex closed down $13.20 at $1,493.40.

The SILVER PRICE, on the other hand, rose 21.8c to close Comex at 3501.1c. Most of the week it's been the other way round, gold rising, silver dropping. Picture painted betrays deep confusion. Internal indicator of Gold/Silver Ratio I watch went from extreme oversold to history's most overbought in eight days! How do you make sense of that? It's a market in complete turmoil.

SILVER posted what appears to be a sort of upside-down head and shoulders, with the bottom of the head at 3232c on Thursday. Any close above 3600c, or even a sally above that intraday, will send silver rollicking off on a rally. However, I believe it has one more leg down, probably to the 200 DMA (now 2876c, at bottom maybe 2900c or higher). It is so terribly oversold it's tough not to expect some sort of rally. Yet I am caught: chart does not yet look complete. Needs another push down.

Y'all better be breaking up those piggy banks and digging the change out of your couches, because y'all are about to taste the best buying opportunity of the next 10 years here in the next three months. I mean, of course, SILVER and GOLD at bottom of this correction.

Thursday and half of Friday the US Dollar Index spent in ashes and sackcloth, tracing out a perfect three wave correction that hit bottom at 74.80 about 4:00 a.m. Then it turned and began to climb, slowly at first, then faster when it rose above 75.20. High was struck at 75.949, but it settled back to 75.723, up 48.3 basis points (0.62%). To be closely observed is that the Dollar Index has now left a 75.60 peak below as support. 'Twill clear 76 next week as momentum favors it: dollar's now flying above the 20 day moving average and 50 dma. There are roadblocks in the way, but the dollar has time and will probably reach 78.88 or the 200 DMA at 78.33.

One reason the dollars liable to reach those heights lies with the Frankenstein currency, the euro (you can still see the scars and suture tracks where it was stitched together). As it was the best thing since bottled Coke and sliced bread two weeks ago, now it is bubonic plague and athlete's foot. Nobody wants it, and that shows in a slide from 1.4940 eight days ago to 1.4116 today. Lost another 1/2 percent today, has crept beneath its 50 dma, and not much support appears before 138.40.

Nor does the Yen offer much competition. Today at Y80.77/$ (123.81c/Y100), not much changed. Seems as if the Nipponese NGM are caught in the jaws of a trap: need yen repatriated to rebuild, but let yen rise and export-dependent economy tanks.

Portentous. Foreboding. Ominous. Ill-boding. In the wood you can hear the crows caw as the cold dampness of the mist pours over the ground before the leafless claw of a tree. Can you hear and see all that in your mind's eye when the Dow closed closer and closer to 12,500 and doom? Today it lost a thumping 100.17 points (0.71%), stumbling to 12,595.75. S&P500 lost 10.88 (0.81%) to 1,337.77. Momentum has been pointing down since May 1.

Stocks remain the "Eight Days In An Albanian Prison" on the list of Fun Investment Ideas.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, May 12, 2011

Gold and Silver Prices Were Extraordinarily Bloody Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1506.60
Change : 5.50 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.793
Change : (0.716) or -2.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.30
Change : 1.028 or 2.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02309
Change : -0.000562 or -2.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1771.40
Change : -6.20 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 718.60
Change : 1.05 or 0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,348.65
Change : 6.57 or 0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.20
Change : $ 0.29 or 0.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.427
Change : 0.014 or 0.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 364.90
Change : 9.21 or 2.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,695.92
Change : 65.89 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.21
Change : -0.118 or -0.2%

Editors Note: Due to an issue with Blogger.com we were not able to publish Franklin Sanders Commentary, we apologies for any trouble caused. Details of the Blogger downtime here

What a rotten shame, to be forced to stay inside on a day like this! Outside the honeysuckle, privet, rambling roses, and even tulip poplars are pouring themselves in the air, and I'm stuck here in front of an antiseptic, dyspeptic, cataleptic computer.

US DOLLAR INDEX is temporizing. It dropped 11.8 basis points today (0.15%) to 75.209, but as long as it floats above 75, maybe 74.80, its upward course is not re-set. Euro rose today imperceptibly, to 1.4235, plainly still descending, and will for some time to come. Yen continues to edge sideways. Today at Y80.897/$ (123.65c/Y100).

This almost beats watching red paint dry. You know, the red dries faster than the green. Or at least, it seems that way. It will change shortly. Dollar Index is pushing its way through the 50 day moving average (now 75.22) and will sprint toward 79 once it disentangles itself from that hedge.

On a five day chart, stocks peaked Tuesday about 12,775, hit a new low today at 12,537.17, then rallied off that low to close up 65.89 at 12,695.92 (S&P500 rose 6.57 to 1,348.65). Brutal truth is that this creates a series of lower lows and lower highs, also called a downtrend. Might go higher still, but to me it's just a boat for a vacation in rural Albania. Naw, naw, that's okay -- y'all go ahead without me. I'll be fine right here.

Speaking of brutal, gold and silver prices were extraordinarily bloody today. Gold had a range of 2% and silver ranged from low to high 10.6%!

Overnight gold lost its grip on $1,505 and sank like a stone -- not a light one, a heavy one -- through $1,500. Once that panic began, it couldn't stop until it thudded up against $1,477.85, where. previously almost no support existed -- more consoling than dropping to or past the previous low at $1,462.40. Coincidentally, the 50 DMA lies there at the last low as well.

Gold is shouting that it has lots of friends at any price below $1,500. It reached today's low about 7:00 a.m. Eastern time, and once it opened on Comex climbed steadily throughout the day.

Comex gold ended up $5.50 at $1,506.60. this doesn't amount to much. Sure, it was a splendid recovery, but the end is only mired there in support/resistance around $1,505. Gold needed to close above that, clearly above that, to send a warning of higher prices.

Mercy! Yesterday I made a fairly significant typographical error. High was $1,526.20, NOT $1,562.20. But y'all knew that anyway, right?

Long and short remains that gold is correcting, and almost never completes a correction in under 30 days. That's quick time, too, and takes us to the Season of Weakness and Sloth for silver and gold. What, then, can be expected but more erosion and a sideways move across June and July?

BICBW. Bunglin' Ben Bernancubus (think "incubus") might wake up tomorrow with the notion to print another couple of trillion bucks, and send silver and gold skyward again. Leave it at this: As long as gold remains below $1,526.20, points lower, not higher.

Gold in Euros is working its way toward the last intraday high at 1079. Must exceed that or risk being labelled a double top.

By the way, Steve Forbes has forecast that the US will go back on a gold standard in the next five years. You wonder where these fellows get these notions. Remember Joe Stalin's few words of wisdom: "Ruling classes never leave the stage of history voluntarily." Why would the Tapeworm presently feeding on us suddenly submit to its own execution by re-instituting a gold standard? No reason given, since none exists.

Forget not that the Fed tail wags the US government dog, not vice versa, and who knows who wags the Fed.

Forbes also overlooks how pervasively the Fed and its fiat money have deformed and crippled the once athletic US economy. To talk about government spending too much money, to act as if a single measure (restoring the gold standard) will answer, is to blind yourself to the truth. Over one-half of every state's income comes from government spending, 20-25% from state and local government, 30 - 40% from Federal. Right, go ahead, now that government policy has exported all the jobs, cut that government spending and end income for all those folks. Wait and see how long it takes them to decorate a lamppost with your hanging carcass.

Asserting that one change -- resuming a gold standard -- can fix the US economy is like walking into a patient's room who has liver cancer, and claiming he will recover if we just put some make-up on his face to cover the yellow jaundice.

Listen: nothing economic will improve, no hope for a just and lasting prosperity will ever appear until the Federal Reserve is abolished, its buildings demolished, and the ground they stood on sown with salt. Then we have to demolish the idea that the imperial government owes a living to everybody, which works out to be not the genuinely poor, but the rich who own the corporations. Face it: prosperity cannot exist without production. No amount of debt can raise us, like levitating by our own bootstraps, to prosperity. Somebody has to make, grow, or dig something out of the ground first. No work, no prosperity.

Speech ended, now back to today's markets.

SILVER posted an astounding 10.2% range from its 3232c low to its 3575c high. Wears me out merely to think of it.

Overnight silver broke below 3500c and waterfalled from there. Time Comex opened this morning it had reached the low, and spent most of the rest of the day climbing, peaked about 2:00, then backed off to the mid 3450s. Comex dropped 71.6c to 3479.3, but it rose over 35 after that, then backed off.

Obviously, silver has loads of friends below 3500c, but not enough to lift it above its 50 DMA (3907c). Clearly also, the downward pressure rests heaviest on silver's volatile shoulders. Break through old low overnight hints strongly that silver will drop again tomorrow.

Gold/Silver ratio at closing was 43.302, up 2.4% from yesterday. 'Twill rise further. Internal measurements in the ratio have become so wild they are incomprehensible. Silver has not yet stabilized.

Platinum may have double-topped and palladium looks to have rolled over to the downside. No immediate comfort there.

Y'all are witnessing a correction in an on-going precious metals bull market. Compose yourself, kiss your wife and children, enjoy your supper, knowing your silver and gold will come roaring back.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, May 11, 2011

I'll be Surprised if Silver and Gold Prices Don't Make Another Big Drop

Gold Price Close Today : 1501.10
Change : (15.50) or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.509
Change : (2.971) or -7.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.27
Change : 2.861 or 7.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02366
Change : -0.001717 or -6.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1777.60
Change : -22.20 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 717.55
Change : -17.60 or -2.4%

S&P 500 : 1,342.08
Change : -15.08 or -1.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.93
Change : $ 0.02 or 0.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.414
Change : 0.001 or 0.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 355.69
Change : 24.08 or 7.3%

Dow Industrial : 12,630.03
Change : -130.33 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.34
Change : 0.759 or 1.0%

My similes and metaphors may ofttimes want some explanation. When I say that trying to buy in a correction is like trying to catch a falling knife, think about it: you might catch the handle, but you also might catch the blade or point. Better to pick it up after it hits the floor. Yet if you wait too long, you might miss it altogether -- the falling knife dilemma.

Some of y'all misunderstood my comments about the gold/silver ratio target for swapping back into silver from gold. I used 47.5 as an example, but I am expecting and hoping the ratio will surpass that mark. Ultimately, 58 may not be reasonable, but I am still pondering while the market unfolds.

Precious metals markets twisted today to bite in the back all those too-quick-to-jump optimists, LO! me among them.

The GOLD PRICE reached $1,562.22 overnight, and then the sellers struck about 7:00 a.m. From there gold avalanched to $1,495.50, but climbed back over $1,500 before Comex closed at $1,501.10, losing -- ouch! -- $15.50. End of three-day bounce, resume decline. Crossed under the 20 DMA ($1,507.45), and stepped through that $1,505 cover over the well. Well shaft drops clean to last low at $1,462.40. Lower prices to come, $1,445 perhaps, or $1,380, or even the 200 DMA at $1,362.50. Correction hasn't hit the floor yet.

Plug was pulled on the SILVER PRICE about the same time as the GOLD PRICE. It fell from 7:00 a.m. (EDT) until 1:00 p.m., then slithered along 3500c rest of the day. Comex registered 297.1c lower than yesterday at 3550.9c. Volatility, thy name is silver!

All that has happened is that the silver price rose for three days to reach its 50 DMA (3908c), touched that overnight, then stepped into a hole. Last low was 3315c, next should exceed that. Looking now for 3100c or even 200 DMA at 2867c today -- BICBW.

BICBW -- but I could be wrong. I always add that because it's true. Anybody on any day has a 50% chance of being right, and a 50% chance of being wrong. I never substitute my judgment for my customer's. He might be right and I might be wrong.

But I'll be surprised if silver and gold prices don't make another big drop. Not enough time and price have passed for the knife to hit the floor.

US DOLLAR INDEX today took off to the upside. It traced out yesterday and early today a long narrow triangle, down to 74.40, then shot up. Once it cleared 75 it sped up, and came to roost at 75.335, up 75.9 basis points (1.01%). Now the dollar is soaring above its 20 DMA (74.13) and its 50 DMA (75.27). Hard to maintain that it isn't rallying, because it is. 75.25 was the March low so might offer a little resistance, but more likely is a sprint to 76.61. Rally is only beginning.

Confirming the dollar's rally was the sagging euro today. Already below its 20 DMA (1.4548), today it sank below its 50 dma (1.4209) and stopped sinking at 1.4195, down 1.5%. Doesn't matter how high the Euro central bank cranks interest rates if the market is terrified Greece et. al. are about to bankrupt.

Yen fell slightly, trying to decide whether it will abandon its recent rally. Or, more accurately, the Nice Government Men behind the yen are trying to decide.

Every stock index fell today. From the Russell 2000's down 1.78% to the S&P500's -1.11%to the Dow's -1.02%, the direction uniformly turned down. Dow closed at 12,630.03, down 130.33 (after the NGM goosed it at the day's end), nearly kissing its 20 DMA (12,565). The S&P500 lost 15.08 to close at 1,342.08.

Stocks remain the arm garters and celluloid collars in the Investment Fashion Show.

Stocks' momentum has crested and turned down. No matter how many water wings or how high they inflate them, the NGM simply can't keep the sinking stock market afloat. It's a bear market, boys.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Today the Gold Price Closed Above its 20 Day Moving Average

Gold Price Close Today : 1516.60
Change : 13.70 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 38.480
Change : 1.370 cents or 3.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 39.41
Change : -1.086 or -2.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02537
Change : 0.000680 or 2.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1799.80
Change : 5.80 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 735.15
Change : 4.65 or 0.6%

S&P 500 : 1,357.38
Change : 11.09 or 0.8%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.99
Change : $ (0.47) or -0.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.417
Change : -0.023 or -0.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 331.72
Change : -10.09 or -3.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,764.52
Change : 79.84 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 74.58
Change : -0.103 or -0.1%

Many have pointed to the multiplied times the exchange raised margin levels on silver contracts -- at last to $25,000 per contract -- as the straw that broke silver's back. It didn't work all the other times they raised it earlier, but that is what an exchange will always do to protect itself in a fast-rising market. It's more a coincident indicator of a top than a cause.

GOLD'S day was quite impressive on a 5 day chart, but not so much on a longer term chart. The GOLD PRICE has made a steady advance from the $1,462 low, and tried to break today twice but was caught by $1,506 after falling $10. No secret, then, $1,506 forms the cover of the well. Break through that, and, it's a long fall.

Overhead the gold price keeps bumping against the $1,519 ceiling. Today the gold price closed above its 20 day moving average, first tripwire of a rise or fall. Still that top at $1,575.10 (intraday) looks awfully high from here. When Comex locked up, the gold price had gained $13.70 to end at $1,516.60.

Should the gold price batter through $1,525, 'twill make a run towards the last high at $1,575.

That SILVER took its vitamins last night. Rose 137c today to 3848c on Comex. That pulled the gold/silver ratio down to 39.413. 3800c marks important support/resistance for the silver price, not surprising since we have been here, tho briefly, before. For a feel of where the silver price is, look at the 20 DMA at 4271c, a long ways off. Never mind, if silver price lacked enthusiastic buyers and supporters, it wouldn't have gained 137c today. This reaction rally has not ended yet.

The gold/silver ratio chart shows the ratio skying from 31.44 to 43.89 (intraday). I know that many of y'all MISSED the silver to gold swap when it was lower, and have been calling now to make that trade, which at these levels makes no sense. However, if the ratio reaches 37.6, you have another shot at it, targeting a swap back at 47.5 or higher. I don't believe the ratio will stop that low, but if you do the numbers, it offers over a 20% profit even with a 6.3% slip from the spot ratio.

And an alert reader found the probable cause of yesterday's up-spurt in stocks: about 10:15 the New York Fed announced another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation, or Printing Out Money Obscenely) that it would buy $7.2 billion in US government securities. See http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1andopertype=orig for the obscure and obtuse details. Thus once again we see that when the stock market flounders, the Nice Government Men get busy cranking out more demand, even if they have to buy the stocks themselves.

Count Potemkin was the Russian Tsarina Catherine the Great's lover and Governor General of the southern provinces. Supposedly when Catherine came to visit the region, left poverty stricken and wretched by his maladministration, he built painted facades of houses to appear as real villages. He would trot out a crowd of healthy, red-cheeked peasants to cheer Catherine as her carriage drove by, then quickly have his crew tear down the village and move it to the next site. Instant villages with instant populations.

Now some of y'all, I'll bet, will spend several minutes wondering why I told this story right after the story about the POMO.

The US DOLLAR INDEX worked sideways in a correction, edging out on the limb of 74.50. Might take off upside tomorrow or even break that 74.50 and work all the way down to 74, 74.20. Long as the dollar index remains above 74 'tis still in rally gear.

On renewed worries that Greece might default on its sovereign debt Gold in euros climbed towards its all time high of E1079. Closed at E1052. Euro itself rose a little on the day, to 1.4400.

Now ain't this strange. A mere 5 days ago the euro was stronger than a garlic milkshake and every speculator, hedge fund, and taxi driver was buying it. Today, alas, it hath no friends as it bumps along its 50 DMA. One must ask, if one is sane, how the Euro today differeth from the euro five days ago, and the answer comes back: not a whit. Same piece of . . . trash. Yet then it was hot as a fritter and today cold as kraut. Y'all beginning to see that fundamentals have nothing in the world to do with currency markets. Well, a little, but not much.

Japanese yen today moved down a tad, to Y80.86/$ (123.67c/Y100), continuing its retreat from an atmosphere too scant of oxygen for easy breathing.

My, O, My, stocks today added 75.68 (0.60%) to approach yet again the 12,800 level. Specifically, the Dow flew up 75.68 to roost at 12,760.36. S&P flew to a higher perch at 1,357.16, up 10.87 (0.81%). I only hope somebody remembers to shut the door of the coop so no possum or fox or skunk gets in and carries them away. Weasels, we all know, already thrive on Wall Street.

News from Nashville this morning was welcome. Miss Caroline's heart is working just fine. Only plausible explanation for her fainting spell is dehydration. Please accept my sincere thanks for your prayers and many comforting emails. Psalm 9:10

Explanations always emerge, you just can't always identify them at the time.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, May 09, 2011

The Silver Price Rallied off Friday's $33.15 Low as High as $38.00

Gold Price Close Today : 1502.90
Change : 11.70 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.110
Change : $ 1.827 or 5.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.50
Change : -1.765 or -4.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02469
Change : 0.001031 or 4.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1794.00
Change : 17.00 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 730.50
Change : 24.40 or 3.5%

S&P 500 : 1,346.29
Change : 6.09 or 0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.47
Change : $ (0.71) or -0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.440
Change : -0.035 or -0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 341.81
Change : -16.40 or -4.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,684.68
Change : 45.94 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 74.68
Change : 0.028 or 0.0%

Looking at my charts and past data this morning, it's difficult to avoid the conclusion that the SILVER PRICE has more downside in store. The GOLD PRICE might have made all the correction it intends to make, but that, too, is uncertain. Earlier corrections after Gold/Silver Ratio lows have taken gold down from 4% to 12%. The first we have seen already, and 12% would take us to $1,370. These are possibilities, not predictions.

The Silver Price rallied off Friday's $33.15 low as high as $38.00, but couldn't pierce that barrier. On Comex silver added $1.827 to close at $37.11, up a gigantic 5.2% but in the aftermarket it added another 81c to reach a price 7.5% higher than Friday's. Sharp rises are followed by sharp falls, and often then by sharp but truncated rises in turn. Here we must balance jumping in too soon against missing our chance, a prickly mess. For now my eyes are turned longingly toward the 200 day moving average (now $28.48), so often the target of silver's corrections in this bull market. Before we see that, however, we might see a rally that jumps as high as $42.00, and it might consume quite a bit of time. I don't believe silver is ready to take the bit in its teeth and run away upside quite yet. Give it time.

GOLD on Comex re-captured $11.70 to close at $1,502.90. Clearly lots of folks were looking to visit the bargain basement gold sale, but in the aftermarket, after a $10+ rise, gold stalled around $1,513 and fell back a couple of bucks. $1,510 forms the resistance that is bogging gold down, and above that $1,520 will suck at gold's feet like quicksand. Clearly, then, a close above $1,520 would send gold higher.

Downside remember that $1,462 low. If the gold price breaks that then it will have to do more penance, maybe on its knees.

Keep calm, it is only a correction in an on-going bull market (primary trend) with another three to ten years to run. As you ought not to have succumbed to the hysteria on the upside, you must not succumb to the despair on the downside. Wait. Compose yourself in patience.

Today taught a lesson to all those who arrogantly believe parsing markets is easy.

The US DOLLAR INDEX hit a high today at 75.16, but that was one step too far for a fiat currency that had already run so hard. That completed the move and the rest of the day the dollar backed off and ended at 74.68, up a meager 2.8 basis points from yesterday. It's a correction, folks, ricocheting in its upward flight off the 50 DMA. Least target for rally reaches 77.40. Buttressing that conclusion is the Euro, collapsing like the Tsarist army at Tannenberg. Yen is sprightlier, but looks like it has played out its upmove as well.

What happened about 11:45? Something to send stocks, which had languished till then, a-soaring. McHugh of www.technicalindex.com, whom I respect, expects one more leg up before the bear resumes his doomed and dreaded mauling.

Dow gained 45.94 to 12,684, S&P500 added 6.09 to end at 1,346.29. This is cloud-cuckoo land, for tis a bear market (primary downtrend lasting 15 - 20 years that began in 2000) and no economic reason appears to imply improving conditions in an economy gutted by central banks, banks, speculation, debt, and exported industry and agriculture.

But y'all hold on to your stocks -- they'll make interesting keepsakes for your grandchildren, and who knows, by that time they may have begun recovering.

I have thirteen grandchildren: twelve boys and a single girl, Caroline, Justin and Ellen's daughter. Five months after she was born (July 2007) her illness revealed a malformed heart. After three miraculous surgeries at Vanderbilt in Nashville, where children's heart surgery was pioneered beginning in the 1940s, she has a rebuilt and efficient heart. She plumped up and is as active as any four year old.

But today she was out shopping with her mother and grandmother and fainted. Why, no one can say, but her doctors at Vanderbilt wanted to see her, so Justin and Ellen have taken her up there tonight.

Would y'all please pray for Caroline's complete recovery? I know she is spectacularly beloved because we've seen so many miracles in her life already.

On this day in 1913 the 17th amendment to the US constitution was ratified. It provided for electing senators by popular vote rather than by state legislatures, thus depriving states of their representation and converting a federated republic into a democracy. Yes, it did indeed mean that much.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, May 06, 2011

Silver Price Lost 27.4% this Week the Gold Price Lost 4.2%

Gold Price Close Today : 1,491.20
Gold Price Close 29-Apr : 1,556.00
Change : -64.80 or -4.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 3528.3
Silver Price Close 29-Apr : 4858.4
Change : -1330.10 or -27.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.264
Gold Silver Ratio 29-Apr : 32.027
Change : 10.24 or 32.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02366
Silver Gold Ratio 29-Apr : 0.03122
Change : -0.00756 or -24.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 175.21
Dow in Gold Dollars 29-Apr : $ 170.19
Change : $ 5.01 or 2.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.476
Dow in Gold Ounces 29-Apr : 8.233
Change : 0.24 or 2.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 358.21
Dow in Silver Ounces 29-Apr : 263.68
Change : 94.53 or 35.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,638.74
Dow Industrial 29-Apr : 12,810.54
Change : -171.80 or -1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,340.20
S&P 500 29-Apr : 1,363.61
Change : -23.41 or -1.7%

US Dollar Index : 74.652
US Dollar Index 29-Apr : 73.050
Change : 1.602 or 2.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,777.00
Platinum Price Close 29-Apr : 1,874.90
Change : -97.90 or -5.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 706.10
Palladium Price Close 29-Apr : 794.45
Change : -88.35 or -11.1%


This week the market taught everyone a lesson that must never be forgotten: markets fall faster than they rise. No exceptions. And markets also taught us a corollary lesson: the four words you are most likely to hear just before you lose copious amounts of money are, "It's different this time."

Wherefore, the SILVER PRICE lost 27.4% this week, the GOLD PRICE lost 4.2%, the PLATINUM PRICE 5.2%, the PALLADIUM PRICE 11.1%, and stocks 1.3%. As you might have guessed, the US dollar index rose this week. What better time for the central bankers to spring their trap than when dollar sentiment was universally bearish and euro sentiment universally bullish? How better to punish those fleeing to silver, gold, and commodities from inflation?

Let's look at the US DOLLAR first because that's the catalyst for these other markets.

The US DOLLAR INDEX traced out an upside down head and shoulders with a neckline at 73.30. First target for a breakout over that neckline was 73.90. Sure enough, on Wednesday the dollar index jumped from 73.13 to 74.084. Today it made good its gains and confirmed its reversal by ending the day at 74.652, up 45.8 basis points or 0.59%.

For its part the euro poured in a waterfall from its 1.4940 intraday high on Tuesday to 1.4339 today, sinking 1.39% today alone. This smasheth the 20 dma (1.4569) and neareth the 50 dma (1.4254). The Yen today reversed as well, closing at Y80.43/$ (124.33c/Y100). I told y'all that currencies are treacherous, and here you see it. You can trust fiat currencies and central banks exactly as you can trust a rattlesnake -- to bite you every time.

STOCKS took sick most of the week. Today the Dow managed to lift its head off the pillow by 54.57 points to close at 12,638.74. S&P500 rose 5.1 to 1,340.20. More interesting is that for all gold has lost, stocks have gained little against gold. Dow in Gold Dollars this week rose by G$5.01 to G$175.21 (8.476 oz), remaining in the same range that has prevailed since February. No change there. I am so tried of this charade in stocks I can hardly work up enough energy to insult it. Well, I will try. Investing in stocks remains the Phrenology in the College of Investment Sciences.

The GOLD PRICE lost $64.80 (4.2%) from its high on Monday at $1,475. Low yesterday fell on $1,460. Not surprising anybody much, gold rebounded today $10.30 to $1,491.20. Not surprising because the five day chart shows a completed down move.

However, the SILVER PRICE fell 94.8c to 3528.3c, non-confirming gold's rise. Question is, which is non-confirming which? Is the silver gainsaying gold's rise, or is gold's rise contradicting silver's fall? I don't know, but I do remember a market proverb, "Never try to catch a falling knife." That means, don't pick a bottom too quickly. Give the market time to work itself out.

Against that I have to balance the still-stinging memory of that January silver and gold price correction which refused to carry nearly as far as I thought (in my arrogance) that they ought. Yet for now, DOWN is the leading direction.

The silver price has sliced with such speed and gravity through its 20 DMA and 50 DMA (38.88) that I begin to remember how often during this bull market the silver price has revisited its 200 DMA, now 2838c. Certainly possible.

GOLD-SILVER RATIO
today hit 42.264 at closing, up 10.2 points from its close on 29 April (32%). That correction falls nearly within the the range of 2004 - 2008 corrections, namely, from 33 to 38%. Yet don't forget 2008's terror, when the ratio rose 77% from its low.

Silver's low today came at 3305c, so technically it has fulfilled my first target, and, yes, that might be the end of it. If not, watch for 3120c or even 2638c.

Gold nearly fulfilled my first target at $1,445 by hitting $1,462 yesterday. That also nearly touched the 50 dma ($1,455.49), an often- witnessed reaction target. If gold doesn't stop there, it might find footing only at $1,382.

Blusterers will bluster, and bubblers will bubble, but never mind all that. Keep your eyes fixed on the horizon, on the long term trend. Silver and gold's recent moves were NOTHING compared to their blow-off tops in 1980.

More than that, ask yourself why you bought silver and gold, and what's driving the market: monetary demand born of central bank inflation. Ask yourself which of the fundamentals have changed: has the US government announced it will suddenly pull its troops home and cut spending? Has Ben Bernancubus appeared teary-eyed on TV, repenting of the evil he has done the country, begging forgiveness, and resigning his Fed-head-ship? Has congress abolished the Federal Reserve? Until some or all of this appears, you can relax and hold on to your silver and gold. No matter how the media terrorize you talking of silver and gold bubbles, calm yourself and fix your eyes on the horizon.

And LO! A Reminder: a seasoned investor NEVER sells his bull market position during a correction. He knows that he can never make as much money trading as he can make WAITING.

I understand that many of y'all call and want to talk to nobody but me. I don't recommend that, since you might wait two or three days to hear from me. Truth is, everybody here is kin, and we all sing the same tune. They're probably all smarter than I am anyway. I'm pretty sure they think that, at least.

Please do not email me for personal trading advice. It would wholly inappropriate for me to advise you without knowing anything of your whole situation. Everything I have to say to the world is said here in public every day, so I will not answer these emails. If, however, you are interested in buying physical silver or gold from us, we will be glad to help you. Just don't ask me how to trade your precious metals stock or ETF or futures position.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
(888)218-9226

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.