Monday, April 23, 2012

The Gold Price Dropped $10.20 to Close Comex at $1,631.90 Bull Market is Hardly One-Third Complete

Gold Price Close Today : 1631.90
Change : (10.20) or -0.62%

Silver Price Close Today : 3052.50
Change : 111.90 cents or -3.54%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.461
Change : 1.568 or 3.02%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01871
Change : -0.000565 or -2.93%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1556.30
Change : -21.10 or -1.34%

Palladium Price Close Today : 670.75
Change : -4.25 or -0.63%

S&P 500 : 1,366.94
Change : -11.59 or -0.84%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.75
Change : $ (0.25) or -0.15%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.922
Change : -0.012 or -0.15%

Dow in SILVER oz : 423.49
Change : 11.75 or 2.85%

Dow Industrial : 12,927.17
Change : -102.09 or -0.78%

US Dollar Index : 79.37
Change : 0.180 or 0.23%

GOLD PRICE today dropped $10.20 and closed Comex at $1,631.90. Now it's true that it traded as low as $1,623.59, below my $1,630 limit, but it didn't CLOSE there, don't you know. SILVER PRICE finally broke through 3100c and traded as low as 3047c. Lost 111.9c on Comex and ended at 3052.5c, but here in the aftermarket nearly four hours later it's trading around and above 3090c.

Since March I've been watching a bullish falling wedge take shape on the gold chart, so contrary to popular expectations, today neither surprised me nor cast me down. The GOLD PRICE could fall to $1,580 without violating that wedge's lower boundary. Recall, too that a falling wedge points to a soon-future UP move.

It grieves me to see some folks tiring out, exhausted by this long correction. Please hear me out: I have been in this frustrating place before. In two of the last corrections the GOLD PRICE took 71 weeks and 77 weeks to reach the level where the correction began. But in that last case, that was $1,003.80 and the high for that move followed at $1,888.70 last August. If you don't pay any mind to anything else I say, write this down in that little book you carry in your shirt pocket: In price terms this bull market is hardly one-third complete.

But if you don't want to listen, you're welcome to stuff them green paper dollars in your mattress, and maybe a bunch of stock certificates, too. They make swell wall paper.

My baby SILVER hath also traced out a falling wedge. Here the bottom boundary stands about 2975c today, but if I draw that line slightly differently, it stands about where silver hit its low today (Arbitrary? Well, sometimes.)

Oh, silver could spend more time down here laboring in the basement, but I don't much expect it to break below 3000c, maybe to 2975c. Of course, won't many of y'all be buying while it's down here. Y'all would rather wait and buy it at 3600c, I reckon, but that's human nature.

If I am reading silver and gold wrong, I might be spectacularly wrong. Bottom might yet drop out, especially if the Great Ones Who Care For Us can't find a way to dupe us about the European crisis. But from a technical standpoint and from the longevity of the correction, and the charts, I don't believe y'all will see gigantically lower silver and gold.

Man, nothing but good news out of Europe today, and they really have that crisis under control, like a hound with hydrophobia is learning to control his drooling. French president Sarcophagus became the first president since 1958 not to win re-election on the first ballot, and Sarcophagus is the other half of the Franco-Teutonic Dynamic Duo, with German Chancellor Ferkel. No Sarcophagus, no Duo, no leadership. Next budget talks collapsed in the Netherlands -- the next Greece?! And basking in all this good news, Euro stock markets tumbled to 3 month lows. Never mind that foam on his lips, Europe will be all right.

I reckon the Resplendent Ones at the IMF meeting did not, after all, solve all the world's financial problem. What a surprise.

Y'all would guess on a day that hit stocks and metals such a blow, not to mention all the troubles in Europe, that the US Dollar Index would have soared. Y'all would guess wrong, cause the dollar index rose a meager 18 basis points (0.23%) to 79.374, merely enough to save itself from breaking down.

Just to give y'all a flavor of how hard it must be to manipulate markets and make 'em stick, the euro today dropped 0.5% to $1.3154. Remember that on Friday it had jumped up through its downtrend line and tangled its feet in the jumble of moving averages up above. I mused then that it looked right suspicious, like a drunk with a half-pint sized bulge in his back pocket, but it might not have been Nice Government Men. It might have been merely shorts pulling out of the market before the Resplendent met. Either way, the Euro didn't stick, and I expect that gigantic euro short out there has today measurably swollen.

On the globe's other side the yen rose 0.47% to 123.24c (Y81.14/US$1). That carries it -- with a gap -- above the 50 DMA yet again, which argues that the yen did NOT post an island reversal last week, but I'd still like to see higher prices to second that.

Stocks had a teeth-gnashing day. They opened underwater and stayed there all day swimming like somebody from New Jersey wearing those famous concrete overshoes. Wasn't that they jiggled up and down, they just sank on the open and stayed there. Dow lost 102.09 (0.78%) to end at 12,927.17. The S&P 500 lost 11.59 (0.84%) to 1,366.94.

Been warning y'all about the head and shoulders top in the Dow and S&P500. S&P500 today closed nearly square on the neckline (about 1,360). Dow's right shoulder, on the other hand, stands about 200 points above its 12,700 neckline. No matter, when stocks lurch through that neckline, they'll drop off a cliff, shave 600 points off the Dow in a few days.

But Great Grasping Greenspans and Bouncing Bernankes! What do I know? I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, just a-watchin' my betters perform.

Mercy! My wife just walked into the room with a bag of dried dates, apricots, and figs, which I view the same way a meth-head views meth. I have to bring this to a close.

Spain has criminalized cash business transactions over 2,500 euros (US$3,250), supposedly to catch tax cheats in its new austerity program. Hogwash! Remember what I told y'all the other day about how little paper money cash exists in this country? The cashless society isn't about convenience, it about CONTROL. Go read

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.