Wednesday, April 11, 2012

The Gold Price Must Pierce Resistance at $1,662 or Fall Back

Gold Price Close Today : 1659.00
Change : (0.50) or -0.03%

Silver Price Close Today : 3151.10
Change : 15.9 cents or -0.50%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.648
Change : 0.249 or 0.47%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01899
Change : -0.000090 or -0.47%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.30
Change : -12.90 or -0.81%

Palladium Price Close Today : 636.10
Change : -4.35 or -0.68%

S&P 500 : 1,368.74
Change : 10.15 or 0.75%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.56
Change : $ 1.18 or 0.75%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.719
Change : 0.057 or 0.75%

Dow in SILVER oz : 406.39
Change : 4.87 or 1.21%

Dow Industrial : 12,805.62
Change : 89.69 or 0.71%

US Dollar Index : 79.76
Change : 0.147 or 0.18%

The GOLD PRICE chart today has a "tapped and topped" look to it, although whether that presages only a small, short correction or something worse isn't clear. Limits are these: The GOLD PRICE must pierce resistance at $1,662, or fall back. If it drops lower than $1,630, we are in for another tumble. If it clears $1,662, another rise.

On Comex gold closed down 50 cents at $1,659.00

SILVER PRICE lost 15.9c to end the day at 3151.1c. Silver is narrowing into a triangle from which the escape will be very high or very low. Above 3180c blocks it; below, 3100c keeps it from ignominy.

These sideways moves you simply must patiently wait out.

Ponder, dear Readers, the Dow in Gold Dollars, the Dow measured in gold, whether in gold dollars (G$1.00= 0.048375 oz) or in ounces (G$20.6718 =1 troy oz). Had y'all been watching this for 16 years as I have, y'all would have noticed that in all of this year the DiG$ has remained above its 200 DMA, which signifieth a correction in an ongoing bear market (as in falling from about G$925 [44.65 oz] in August 1999 to G$159.56 [7.719 oz] today.) Anyhow, the DiG$ has churned and churned, made marginal new highs, but just fecklessly failed to make good any escape. Today it sits on the uptrend line, ready to fall through space for G$42 (about 2 oz) or so. Yesterday it fell through is 20 DMA and perched today roughly on its 50 DMA. If it falls from there, it won't stop at the 200 DMA (now G$148.84 or 7.2 oz).

What point hath this meditation? Simply that the strongly reliable DiG$ is warning that stocks' rally is drawing to a close, as well as gold's correction., You'll know that stocks have taken the dive when the Dow closes below 12,250.

Today stocks bounced a tad only, nothing surprising after yesterday 213 point loss. Dow gained 89.69 (0.71%) to 12,805.62. S&P 500 rose 10.15 (0.75%) to 1,368.74.

Possible stocks may make one last move up, but not if they fall through 12,250 on this move. There will be weeping and wailing and gnashing of stock investors' teeth.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is trading at 79.757, down 14.7 basis points (0.2%). It refuses to fall off the cliff or climb up it. Unless the dollar can scrabble over 80, its future is grim. One might speculate the dollar is being rather closely managed.

Nothing attracts the eye with gladness on the euro's chart. It remains in an established down trend and is struggling to stay away from 1.3000. Closed today at $1.3110, up 0.22%.

Yen may be ready to rest for a while, having near about struck its 50 DMA (124.02) yesterday and having left two gaps behind. Today it closed down 0.3% at 123.6c (Y80.91). 124 level also offers lateral resistance, but the yen means to rise.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.