Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Gold Price Rose $11.10 to Close $1,643 Needs to Rise to $1,655 Awaiting FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1643.00
Change : 11.10 or 0.68%

Silver Price Close Today : 3074.60
Change : 21.5 cents or 0.70%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.438
Change : -0.013 or -0.02%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01871
Change : 0.000004 or 0.02%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1542.90
Change : -13.40 or -0.86%

Palladium Price Close Today : 665.00
Change : -5.75 or -0.86%

S&P 500 : 1,371.97
Change : 5.03 or 0.37%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.58
Change : $ (0.15) or -0.09%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.913
Change : -0.007 or -0.09%

Dow in SILVER oz : 422.87
Change : -0.54 or -0.13%

Dow Industrial : 13,001.56
Change : 74.39 or 0.58%

US Dollar Index : 79.37
Change : 0.180 or 0.23%

GOLD PRICE rose $11.10 today to $1,643 and the SILVER PRICE rose 21.5 cents to 3074.6 cents. Truth is, this doesn't tell us very much. Yes, both the silver and GOLD PRICE left behind little spike bottoms yesterday, but without a rise above 3140c in silver or $1,655 in gold, nothing is resolved. And hanging over the market like a big question mark is the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

Only my opinion, but yesterday may have taken the silver and
GOLD PRICE down as low as they will go. Too early to tell yet, but likely.

If it wasn't for bad economic news, there wouldn't be any news at all. Case-Shiller home price index today recorded housing prices declined 3.5% from a year earlier. Home prices haven't been this low since November 2002. But I reckon this is still the best of all possible economies.

More confusion is added because the Great Ones of the Federal Open Market Committee meet tomorrow, and none of the tea-leaf readers know exactly which they will jump. If they sound tough on inflation (no QE for you, Bad America!) then the dollar will rise and stocks and metals will suffer. If they sound easy on inflation (Buck up, America -- we have more monetary meth for you!) then the dollar will suffer and stocks and metals should rise.

So ridiculous as it is, markets await the pronouncements of 17 people who don't know any more than the rest of us, but have their hands on the monetary spigot forbidden to the rest of us. That means the dollar is key to where markets move next. The dollar since November 2011 has been trading into a long even- sided triangle. It sitteth square upon the bottom boundary thereof, and should it break that limit, should fall clean to the 200 day moving average (77.88).

However, the dollar remains - by the hair on its green paper chin -- in an uptrend. That means the market is biased in favor of an upward outcome. Truth to tell, I watch these events and can seldom parse how the public and the Wise Ones Commenting will take the Fed's moves. I'd have as much luck trying to parse a Roman haruspex reading the guts of sacrificed sheep. None of it makes a lick of sense.

That's why I fall back on the fundamental set up of government and fed, where the institutional imperative is "Inflate or die!" Never mind what soothing words they drool, they most assuredly will inflate, sooner or later.

Back to currencies. Yen today dropped 0.2% to 122.96c/Y100 (Y81.33/US$1). It stands above its 50 DMA and 20 DMA, but with a gappy, jumpy pattern that makes little sense. Resembles recent pointless trading in the euro. Euro rose 0.32% today to $1.3197. This is a likely time for the Nice Government Men to manipulate the bejabbers out of the market, given the skittishness in Europe and woes in Japan.

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed over 13,000 today -- just barely, at 13,001.56, up 74.39 or 0.58%. S&P500 rose 5.03 (0.37%) to 1,371.97.

Dow's five day pattern is directionless to weak, up and down but blocked by 13,100 the way Kryptonite blocks Superman. S&P500 looks about the same, but weaker still. Stocks are ready to fall off a cliff, unless some central bank deus ex machina saves them.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.