Monday, April 16, 2012

The Gold Price Fell $10.40 to $1,648.70 Trading Over $1,650 in the After Market

Gold Price Close Today : 1648.70
Change : (10.40) or -0.63%

Silver Price Close Today : 3136.40
Change : 1.6 cents or -0.05%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.567
Change : -0.305 or -0.58%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01902
Change : 0.000110 or 0.58%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1573.20
Change : -8.40 or -0.53%

Palladium Price Close Today : 652.05
Change : 8.85 or 1.38%

S&P 500 : 1,369.57
Change : -0.69 or -0.05%

Dow In GOLD$ : $162.01
Change : $ 1.93 or 1.20%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.837
Change : 0.093 or 1.20%

Dow in SILVER oz : 411.98
Change : 2.50 or 0.61%

Dow Industrial : 12,921.41
Change : 71.82 or 0.56%

US Dollar Index : 79.52
Change : -0.366 or -0.46%

GOLD PRICE dropped $10.40 to $1,648.70, still holding on comfortably above my $1,630 drop-dead line. Silver lost only 1.6c, closing 3136.4, well above the 3100c downside trigger. (Low was 3116c)

I glanced at
GOLD in yen and in euro, and was gratified to see that in both currencies it is bouncing along its 200 day moving average. Why is that welcome news? Well, in bull markets the 200 DMA often serves as the target for downside corrections, so if gold has reached that point already after a month and a half/two month decline, then the correction has pretty well worn itself out. Gold in euros is looking plumb perky, like it's itching to rise.

GOLD PRICE stumbled through that support at $1,650 and fell clean to $1,642, then thought better of itself and bounced up to close at $1,648.70. Trading over $1,650 in the aftermarket.

The GOLD PRICE decline in December and early April touched or pierced that 300 DMA (now 1,618.36), but I mean "touched" solely and then ran away. On the other hand, gold stands below its 160 (now 1,691.82). I'd have to say that whenever gold reaches that (now rising) 300 DMA, it sucks buyers out of the woodwork.

Oh, and GOLD closed below its 20 DMA (1658.39) today, which is a little fishy. Other indicators show no sign of further steep or sudden declines.

The SILVER PRICE chart just don't look right. Looks crazy, like a New Mexican mesa rising out of the desert floor of 3150c. Folks, that just doesn't normally happen. Looks like somebody hit silver in the head with a ball peen hammer.

Never mind. the SILVER PRICE continues to hang on above 3100c, positive for us. MACD and RSI are flat and offer no clues. Working in our favor is silver's 7 month dance with its 300 DMA, now under, now over, and under again. Stands today at 3520c. Silver needs to pull out of this pretty soon.

I know a bunch of y'all will grow exceeding wrathful with me, but I believe that the Stupid Party is setting Bernard O'Bama up for a win this fall by running Mitt "I Have No Personality" Romney. CFR candidate Romney differs not a whit from CFR candidate O'Bama, and surprise, both will appoint more CFR functionaries, wage more wars, and blow more money. Question is, how do you like your hogwash? Full strength from the Stupider Party, or watered down from the Stupid Party?

The Stupid Party and the media have buried the only candidate who differed from the CFR Establishment, Ron Paul, so once again you have no choice in the Potemkin Election. I have no tears left to cry, I just grit my teeth and pray Tennessee will survive these foreign fools.

But on to pleasanter things, like markets today.

Stock indices diverged. Dow rose 71.82 points (0.56%) to 12,921.41 while the NASDAQ composite and S&P500 fell. S&P500 lost 0.69 to 1,369.57. Seems that Apple is on a tear -- a downward tear - and it lost 4.2% today, weighing heavily on those indices since Apple is not in the 30 blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Now none of them smart folks on Wall Street had any clue that Apple was about to tank. Why, its market capitalization passed the whole GDP of Poland and Belgium, and then of Spain, Greece, and Portugal combined, and then of all the rest of US retail stocks, but them smart boys with the pointy shoes never dreamed Apple wouldn't keep on rising everlastingly.

Y'all, you don't need to be a genius to beat these boys, you just have to bridle your greed and remember this: if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Or if that's too complicated for your memory, try this: when everybody finally agrees, they are likely every one wrong.

But, shucks, I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, and ain't never even seen a pair of them Gucci pointy-toed shoes, let alone owned one. Mercy, we just got shoes here two years ago!

Stocks today, even the Dow Industrials, look toppy again. If the Dow can't pierce 13,000 tomorrow, then it has painted out another double top as it fixes to slide again. S&P500 don't even look that good.

See-saw, see-saw, which way rocked currencies today? Dollar index lost 36.6 basis points, 2/3 of what it gained on Friday, and nobody even winced. Left the scabby dollar index at 79.522, and its course sideways. 50 DMA at 79.33, 20 DMA at 79.48, so it barely has a positive momentum, but other indicators are flat as a gridiron, so don't look for the dollar to run off to the upside. Be lucky if it even wakes up tomorrow.

The euro, the bottom-feeding catfish of currencies, fell off badly when the day opened but rose nearly to the downtrend line. Remains below crucial 62 DMA, and looks sorry as gully dirt. Ain't no future there, although it rose today 0.45% to $1.3136.

The rising sun smiled on the yen today. It gained 0.65% to 124.39c (Y80.39/$US1), and closed above its 50 DMA (123.58). Lay all that aside and look at the chart with a big old slide from 131.52 in February to 118.93 in March, like a ski jump, then a recovery to 124. It's so far below the 200 DMA (127.77) it would need field glasses to spot it from where it sits. Looks weak. 125.2 is the 50% correction, and as a FIRST measure the yen will have to conquer that level before it gets much attention.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.