Gold Price Close Today : 1,577.70
Gold Price Close 22-Feb-13 : 1,572.40
Change : 5.30 or 0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.405
Silver Price Close 22-Feb-13 : 28.46
Change : -0.065 or -0.2%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.563
Gold Silver Ratio 22-Feb-13 : 55.249
Change : 0.31 or 0.6%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01800
Silver Gold Ratio 22-Feb-13 : 0.01810
Change : -0.00010 or -0.6%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 184.98
Dow in Gold Dollars 22-Feb-13 : $ 184.06
Change : $0.92 or 0.5%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.948
Dow in Gold Ounces 22-Feb-13 : 8.904
Change : 0.04 or 0.5%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 497.20
Dow in Silver Ounces 22-Feb-13 : 491.94
Change : 5.26 or 1.1%
Dow Industrial : 14,117.88
Dow Industrial 22-Feb-13 : 14,000.57
Change : 117.31 or 0.8%
S&P 500 : 1,522.15
S&P 500 22-Feb-13 : 1,515.60
Change : 6.55 or 0.4%
US Dollar Index : 81.907
US Dollar Index 22-Feb-13 : 80.470
Change : 1.437 or 1.8%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,582.40
Platinum Price Close 22-Feb-13 : 1,606.30
Change : -23.90 or -1.5%
Palladium Price Close Today : 732.60
Palladium Price Close 22-Feb-13 : 735.30
Change : -2.70 or -0.4%
Y'all are tired of the silver and GOLD PRICE falling, and so am I, but it only SEEMS that they've been falling forever. Gold hit a low last Friday at $1,554.30, made a key reversal, and climbed 4 days. Today and yesterday it backed off. Might back off more, but declines yesterday and today were mere normal trading. Gold actually rose $5.30 for the week, and silver lost only 6.5 cents.
The GOLD PRICE fell $17.50 today to $1,577.70. Silver lost 54.8 cents to close 2839.5c.
I'd be grateful if gold would move no lower than today's intraday low at $1,574.90. That would keep it inside its old lower channel line. But that's not as critical for gold as holding above $1,554.30. And y'all will hardly credit this, but it appears the MACD indicator has turned up.
The SILVER PRICE chart looks like gold, a little correction after four day's rise. MACD hasn't as obviously turned up, but is curving. Total risk is down to 2610c to 2610c at most, the support line so long established.
Y'all don't realize that the Establishment is harvesting you. When Goldman- Sachs puts out a report that gold will drop to $1,200, you think they're doing that out of the goodness of their tiny, leaden hearts which when hot are a touch below absolute zero? They are mere hatchetmen and bagmen for the government, floating propaganda to scare you out of silver and gold. Of course, so is Ben Bernanke.
I'm telling y'all, it's time to get mean: plumb, mad-dog mean, if you expect to live and to win.
R.L. Dabney wrote that the Scotch-Irish people, when they are right, are the most inflexible and stubborn people on earth, but when they are wrong are the most mulish and pig-headed. My people are Scotch-Irish so far back that memory runneth not to the contrary, bred to fight for 1,000 years.
When the Y2K threat passed all the neophytes who had bought gold and silver expecting the world to end called up wanting to sell their metals. Knowing that the stock bull market was drawing to a close and suspecting/watching the Dow in Gold roll over, anticipating a new metals bull market, I pleaded with them not to sell (what the lawyers call "an admission against interest"). Some listened, some didn't. How that turned out for people who had bought silver and gold at $5 and $250 - $300 and didn't sell, y'all can judge.
I tell y'all that story to point out that I have been here, under this same artillery fire before. And in 2008 when all and sundry were diving into dollars, I kept telling them to stick with their silver and gold and buy more.
Now pundits are punditting that the dollar will was strong and well-muscled for decades to come, and a new bull market in stocks is about to begin. Right, after they've been in a bear market only 13 years.
Sorry, I'm fixing to become the most mulish and pig-headed Scotch-Irishman (or inflexible and stubborn) you ever met. I don't buy any of the government hogwash about the recovering economy, recovering banks, or the Fed being wiser than God having more money, or stocks launching
a new bull market. I don't buy that the piddling 500% - 600% rise in silver and gold over a mere 12 years fulfills a bull market. I don't buy that Europe will somehow muddle though, and that the Japanese with 250% of their GDP in debt will make itself rich by depreciating the yen.
The causes haven't changed, so the effects will not change.
As that great Scotch-Irishman Outlaw Josey Wales said, "When things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. Cause if you lose your head and you give up, then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is."
A reader wrote to ask me what events would make me sell silver and gold. Here they are, in order: (1) The US government abolishes the Federal Reserve system and returns to a constitutional gold and silver coin standard. (2) The US government ceases to intervene in the economy. (3) Gold drops below $1,000. (4) Frogs grow wings so they won't bump their little bottoms when they jump.
Y'all just put yourself in the place of the government managers like Bernanke. Every once in a while you have to engineer a BIG scare to keep your victims in the dollar and out of gold. One thing that reveals the dollar's true condition is a rising gold price, so he just has to fight that.
Today I have to leave early to attend a funeral in Memphis tomorrow, so the prices are closes for silver and gold only, not everything else. But they'll be close. And I won't publish a commentary tomorrow.
Stocks reached a new high for the move at 14,149.15 but are trading now at 14,117.88, up 42.51 (0.3%). S&P500 stands at 1,522.15, up 6.16 or 0.41%. Dow punched through the upper jaw of that broadening top, but that often happens as the megaphone mouth widens out. I have been telling y'all to expect a new all time NOMINAL high in stocks, so this shouldn't surprise even a TSA agent or central bank president.
Dollar spurted today, up 33.7 basis points (0.43%) to 81.907. Surely has 82 targeted, maybe 83. Deflation scare/strong dollar scare time.
Euro sank back again today, losing 0.56% to $1.3058. Yen also sank 0.46% to 107.90 cents/Y100. Remains, however, above the 107.51 twenty day moving average.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
The Gold Price Posted it's Low Last Week and Must Now Conquer $1,620
Gold Price Close Today : 1595.20
Change : -19.80 or -1.23%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.943
Change : -0.317 or -1.08%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.115
Change : -0.080 or -0.14%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01814
Change : 0.000026 or 0.14%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1599.00
Change : -16.40 or -1.02%
Palladium Price Close Today : 743.15
Change : 3.75 or 0.51%
S&P 500 : 1,515.99
Change : 19.05 or 1.27%
Dow In GOLD$ : $182.40
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.29%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.824
Change : 0.363 or 4.29%
Dow in SILVER oz : 486.31
Change : 11.26 or 2.37%
Dow Industrial : 14,075.37
Change : 175.24 or 1.26%
US Dollar Index : 81.54
Change : -0.316 or -0.39%
The silver and GOLD PRICE dropped today, but hold on a second and think. They had risen four day's running, so a little breather is in order. Silver lost 31.7 cents to 2894.3c and gold fell $19.80 to $1,595.20. This hasn't damaged the uptrend, but might mean that we're in for more sideways frustration. Lines are clearly drawn: silver has to climb over 2950, then 3050c to rally.
The GOLD PRICE must conquer $1,620 - $1,630.
I have to stick by my tentative conclusion, iffy as it might be: the gold and SILVER PRICE made their lows last week. Unless they fall lower than those in daily trading, they will continue to rally.
Yep, I'm biting my nails, too, but this will all clear up pretty soon. Once those stocks break, those nice government men and hedge funds will be skipping and hopping. So will silver and gold.
A reader asked me what the inflation adjusted value of that 26 Feb 1974 $188 gold is: by the under-stated US government inflation adjustment, it's about 878.15 2013 dollars.
There's an old proverb that says the poor man wastes his money bribing the rich. Way it usually works is the rich man gets the poor man's labor for nothing by promising that if he just helps him for free this time, he'll remember him when the next big deal comes around.
But it never comes.
A lot of employers jerk their employees around this way, promising big things in the future while taking away things in the present. The rich man already got me a number of years ago, and taught me never to bribe the rich. I don't remember much poetry, except these lines from Omar Khayyam, "Ahh, take the cash, and let the credit go/Nor heed the rumble of a distant drum!"
Y'all can turn your noses up at me if you like, but I have to warn y'all: that stock market isn't strong, it's blowing off. Erratic trading accompanies blow-off tops. On Friday the Dow gained 119.95, on Monday it lost 216.40, on Wednesday it gained 115.96, and today it gained 175.24 (1.26%) to close at 14,075.37, a new high close for the move.
See that the these moves are slinging the Dow from one side of the Jaws of Death to the other.
The broadening top pattern is not a continuation pattern but a top. The hot and cold uncertainty may send the Dow higher, even to the 2007 high at 14,163, but these high stock prices are not long for this world.
Dow in gold and Dow in silver both bounced up today, but to lower highs. Hmmm -- lower lows and lower highs -- Doesn't that make a downtrend?
Stocks are rolling over, count on it.
Euro rose 0.54% today to $1.3132. However, 'tis only bouncing off an internal resistance line about $1.3040. Headed lower.
Yen lost 0.25% today to 108.40. Nothing technical yet to point to a turn around other than crossing above the 107.61 20 DMA day before yesterday. 50 DMA is above at 111.71c/Y100. It's so politically determined that I wouldn't trade it with y'all's money.
It's an odd thing to me that in an age when more than half the TV shows are about adultery that anybody would get too exercised about adulterating food (merely another brand of adultery) but behold! the uproar in the EU over horse meat in their wieners and meatballs. The goofiest face of this are the calls from the inveterate and unable- ever-to-learn-anything socialists for more government regulation. England has some of the world's tightest meat regulation. Problem is, of course, CONCENTRATION in the food industry. Would you rather buy beef from your local butcher who looks you in the eye, or mystery meat from some far-off corporation? Right, the cure is to know your farmer and buy local.
Forget the meatballs, I'm giving up sushi. A group named Oceana uncovered massive fraud in mislabeled fish. Seems that out of 1200 samples, 1/3 were mislabeled. What was swimming as tuna was in fact escalor, that will give you gastro-intestinal distress you don't want to hear described. Oceana did not find a single sushi bar without mislabeled fish.
I'm telling y'all, the only way to protect yourself from these adulterers and dangerous processed food is to buy local and know your farmer.
But shucks, I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee. Y'all don't pay me no mind, and let me know how y'all like that escolar -- whoops! "Tuna."
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : -19.80 or -1.23%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.943
Change : -0.317 or -1.08%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.115
Change : -0.080 or -0.14%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01814
Change : 0.000026 or 0.14%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1599.00
Change : -16.40 or -1.02%
Palladium Price Close Today : 743.15
Change : 3.75 or 0.51%
S&P 500 : 1,515.99
Change : 19.05 or 1.27%
Dow In GOLD$ : $182.40
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.29%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.824
Change : 0.363 or 4.29%
Dow in SILVER oz : 486.31
Change : 11.26 or 2.37%
Dow Industrial : 14,075.37
Change : 175.24 or 1.26%
US Dollar Index : 81.54
Change : -0.316 or -0.39%
The silver and GOLD PRICE dropped today, but hold on a second and think. They had risen four day's running, so a little breather is in order. Silver lost 31.7 cents to 2894.3c and gold fell $19.80 to $1,595.20. This hasn't damaged the uptrend, but might mean that we're in for more sideways frustration. Lines are clearly drawn: silver has to climb over 2950, then 3050c to rally.
The GOLD PRICE must conquer $1,620 - $1,630.
I have to stick by my tentative conclusion, iffy as it might be: the gold and SILVER PRICE made their lows last week. Unless they fall lower than those in daily trading, they will continue to rally.
Yep, I'm biting my nails, too, but this will all clear up pretty soon. Once those stocks break, those nice government men and hedge funds will be skipping and hopping. So will silver and gold.
A reader asked me what the inflation adjusted value of that 26 Feb 1974 $188 gold is: by the under-stated US government inflation adjustment, it's about 878.15 2013 dollars.
There's an old proverb that says the poor man wastes his money bribing the rich. Way it usually works is the rich man gets the poor man's labor for nothing by promising that if he just helps him for free this time, he'll remember him when the next big deal comes around.
But it never comes.
A lot of employers jerk their employees around this way, promising big things in the future while taking away things in the present. The rich man already got me a number of years ago, and taught me never to bribe the rich. I don't remember much poetry, except these lines from Omar Khayyam, "Ahh, take the cash, and let the credit go/Nor heed the rumble of a distant drum!"
Y'all can turn your noses up at me if you like, but I have to warn y'all: that stock market isn't strong, it's blowing off. Erratic trading accompanies blow-off tops. On Friday the Dow gained 119.95, on Monday it lost 216.40, on Wednesday it gained 115.96, and today it gained 175.24 (1.26%) to close at 14,075.37, a new high close for the move.
See that the these moves are slinging the Dow from one side of the Jaws of Death to the other.
The broadening top pattern is not a continuation pattern but a top. The hot and cold uncertainty may send the Dow higher, even to the 2007 high at 14,163, but these high stock prices are not long for this world.
Dow in gold and Dow in silver both bounced up today, but to lower highs. Hmmm -- lower lows and lower highs -- Doesn't that make a downtrend?
Stocks are rolling over, count on it.
Euro rose 0.54% today to $1.3132. However, 'tis only bouncing off an internal resistance line about $1.3040. Headed lower.
Yen lost 0.25% today to 108.40. Nothing technical yet to point to a turn around other than crossing above the 107.61 20 DMA day before yesterday. 50 DMA is above at 111.71c/Y100. It's so politically determined that I wouldn't trade it with y'all's money.
It's an odd thing to me that in an age when more than half the TV shows are about adultery that anybody would get too exercised about adulterating food (merely another brand of adultery) but behold! the uproar in the EU over horse meat in their wieners and meatballs. The goofiest face of this are the calls from the inveterate and unable- ever-to-learn-anything socialists for more government regulation. England has some of the world's tightest meat regulation. Problem is, of course, CONCENTRATION in the food industry. Would you rather buy beef from your local butcher who looks you in the eye, or mystery meat from some far-off corporation? Right, the cure is to know your farmer and buy local.
Forget the meatballs, I'm giving up sushi. A group named Oceana uncovered massive fraud in mislabeled fish. Seems that out of 1200 samples, 1/3 were mislabeled. What was swimming as tuna was in fact escalor, that will give you gastro-intestinal distress you don't want to hear described. Oceana did not find a single sushi bar without mislabeled fish.
I'm telling y'all, the only way to protect yourself from these adulterers and dangerous processed food is to buy local and know your farmer.
But shucks, I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee. Y'all don't pay me no mind, and let me know how y'all like that escolar -- whoops! "Tuna."
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
With the Gold Price Fulfilling it's Confirmation Rising Above $1,600 I Bought More Silver and Gold
Gold Price Close Today : 1615.20
Change : 29.00 or 1.83%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.260
Change : 0.273 or 0.94%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.202
Change : 0.481 or 0.88%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01812
Change : -0.000159 or -0.87%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1615.40
Change : -4.20 or -0.26%
Palladium Price Close Today : 739.40
Change : -9.65 or -1.29%
S&P 500 : 1,496.94
Change : 9.09 or 0.61%
Dow In GOLD$ : $177.90
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.40%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.606
Change : 0.363 or 4.40%
Dow in SILVER oz : 475.06
Change : -0.47 or -0.10%
Dow Industrial : 13,900.13
Change : 115.96 or 0.84%
US Dollar Index : 81.65
Change : -0.240 or -0.29%
Metals wasted no time today the GOLD PRICE rose $29 (1.83%) to close Comex at $1,615.20. Silver jumped 27.3c (0.94%) to end at 2926 cents.
The GOLD PRICE fulfilled my first hurdle for confirmation by closing above $1,600, and added fifteen bucks for good measure. This is the behavior gold must exhibit to convince watchers that last week was a spike or V-bottom, but it can't stop there. Above it must batter down the $1,630 door, the 20 DMA at $1,637.90, and $1,670. All this ought to happen quickly without any relapse below $1,600.
The SILVER PRICE shows an attack from the bears abut 10:00. It took silver almost two hours to beat that back and recover, but recover it did, climbing above 2900c and over resistance about 2920c.
It's a good step, but silver must keep on rising and shouldn't close again below 2900c.
I bought more silver and gold today. Premium on US 90% has risen to 80c over spot at wholesale, a sign of strength generally. Can hardly find a wholesaler willing to sell 90%, because they're afraid they won't be able to cover it.
Nobody believes an old natural born fool from Tennessee, but I reckon y'all will believe a certified Central Banker wearing a suit and pointy-toe shoes. The Dallas Fed President, Dick Fisher, said in an interview that recent gains in the stock market have not come through improvements in corporate fundamentals or sustainable economic recovery, but instead through the artificial manipulation by the Fed in the markets themselves. Primary cause for the 30% stock rally has been the Fed's continuous inflow of new money.
I bet y'all will believe it now. (I don't really KNOW whether he wears pointy-toed shoes, but I'll bet he does wear a suit. For all I know he wears Birkenstocks, but the prez of the Dallas Fed sure enough is a Central Banker.)
Y'all may wonder what has kept me wrong so long about silver and gold, over and over expecting their correction to end. How about the Fed pouring a zillion dollars into the stock market, sucking up all the money in the world?
Doesn't matter, if it wasn't the Fed, it'd be stray dogs. There's always some distraction to fool you and trick you out of your bull market position in silver and gold.
Stock market did NOT follow through yesterday's first half of a key reversal by closing lower today. Dow gained back 115.96 points (up 0.84%) of the 216.40 it lost yesterday. Must have kept those Nice Government Men up all night just a-buying and a-buying those stock market futures to jack that price up. It did rise back to the inside the Jaws of Death -- waiting for 'em to snap shut again.
Nothing hurts as bad as disappointed hopes. You go to the mailbox day after day, waiting for that notification from the Publishers' Sweepstakes that you've won the life changing lottery, but find there only cobwebs. After a while, you commence to get mad.
I've travelled this road of a Broadening Top or Jaws of Death before. 'Tis the pattern stocks followed at their bull market top in 2000. They fall, but then they rise again, just enough to raise hopes. Then they fall again, to a lower low, disappointing hopes. That continues until at last, they fall out of the Jaws for an undeniable failure. Before that, though, the Jaws feed on disappointed hopes.
Dow rose 115.,96 to close at 13,900.13 but the S&P500 couldn't quite make it over the morale-building 1,500 and gained only 9.09 (0.61%) to close 1,496.94.
I have just enough bad taste and bad manners to flip the page over to the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver charts and observe that the breakdown there was NOT gainsaid by any bogus rise today. Both are about as broken as a market can be, and I take great heart from that for silver and gold. Those two indicators have been almost infallible over the last 17 years I've been watching them.
US Dollar index backed off 24 basis points (0.31%) today to 81.49. It hit the internal resistance line that marks the shoulder-tops of the head and shoulders it formed from March 2012 - November 2012. Seems to have stopped cold there at 82. RSI is way overbought, which, if the NGM weren't behind the green curtain, would mean it will decline. With them back there working the smoke machine, there's just no telling.
Euro at $1.3060 and Yen at 108.71 were basically flat today. All the talking Nerds -- WHOA!, make that talking heads -- on National Proletarian Radio were frothing and nattering today about how awful and irresponsible it is that the Italians gave a big percentage of their vote to the new block headed by comedian Beppe Grillo. Personally, I think it plainly illustrates how seriously Italians take their politics. Well, no, not that way, but it shows that they understand that politics is nothing but entertainment for us mushrooms anyway, so they might as well be entertained by somebody funny. Hey, if he were alive I'd vote for Jonathan Winters for president in a minute! And he could make George Carlin Chairman of the Fed.
US$1=Y91.99=E0.7657=0.034176 oz Ag=0.006191 oz Au.
Speaking of comedians, today Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee that he believe he is helping the economy by holding down long term interest rates and that ought to be sustained. No, seriously. He said that. Ain't he one heck of a comedian? Yuck, yuck.
On 26 February 1974 Gold hit a new record high of US$188 an ounce in Paris.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : 29.00 or 1.83%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.260
Change : 0.273 or 0.94%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.202
Change : 0.481 or 0.88%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01812
Change : -0.000159 or -0.87%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1615.40
Change : -4.20 or -0.26%
Palladium Price Close Today : 739.40
Change : -9.65 or -1.29%
S&P 500 : 1,496.94
Change : 9.09 or 0.61%
Dow In GOLD$ : $177.90
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.40%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.606
Change : 0.363 or 4.40%
Dow in SILVER oz : 475.06
Change : -0.47 or -0.10%
Dow Industrial : 13,900.13
Change : 115.96 or 0.84%
US Dollar Index : 81.65
Change : -0.240 or -0.29%
Metals wasted no time today the GOLD PRICE rose $29 (1.83%) to close Comex at $1,615.20. Silver jumped 27.3c (0.94%) to end at 2926 cents.
The GOLD PRICE fulfilled my first hurdle for confirmation by closing above $1,600, and added fifteen bucks for good measure. This is the behavior gold must exhibit to convince watchers that last week was a spike or V-bottom, but it can't stop there. Above it must batter down the $1,630 door, the 20 DMA at $1,637.90, and $1,670. All this ought to happen quickly without any relapse below $1,600.
The SILVER PRICE shows an attack from the bears abut 10:00. It took silver almost two hours to beat that back and recover, but recover it did, climbing above 2900c and over resistance about 2920c.
It's a good step, but silver must keep on rising and shouldn't close again below 2900c.
I bought more silver and gold today. Premium on US 90% has risen to 80c over spot at wholesale, a sign of strength generally. Can hardly find a wholesaler willing to sell 90%, because they're afraid they won't be able to cover it.
Nobody believes an old natural born fool from Tennessee, but I reckon y'all will believe a certified Central Banker wearing a suit and pointy-toe shoes. The Dallas Fed President, Dick Fisher, said in an interview that recent gains in the stock market have not come through improvements in corporate fundamentals or sustainable economic recovery, but instead through the artificial manipulation by the Fed in the markets themselves. Primary cause for the 30% stock rally has been the Fed's continuous inflow of new money.
I bet y'all will believe it now. (I don't really KNOW whether he wears pointy-toed shoes, but I'll bet he does wear a suit. For all I know he wears Birkenstocks, but the prez of the Dallas Fed sure enough is a Central Banker.)
Y'all may wonder what has kept me wrong so long about silver and gold, over and over expecting their correction to end. How about the Fed pouring a zillion dollars into the stock market, sucking up all the money in the world?
Doesn't matter, if it wasn't the Fed, it'd be stray dogs. There's always some distraction to fool you and trick you out of your bull market position in silver and gold.
Stock market did NOT follow through yesterday's first half of a key reversal by closing lower today. Dow gained back 115.96 points (up 0.84%) of the 216.40 it lost yesterday. Must have kept those Nice Government Men up all night just a-buying and a-buying those stock market futures to jack that price up. It did rise back to the inside the Jaws of Death -- waiting for 'em to snap shut again.
Nothing hurts as bad as disappointed hopes. You go to the mailbox day after day, waiting for that notification from the Publishers' Sweepstakes that you've won the life changing lottery, but find there only cobwebs. After a while, you commence to get mad.
I've travelled this road of a Broadening Top or Jaws of Death before. 'Tis the pattern stocks followed at their bull market top in 2000. They fall, but then they rise again, just enough to raise hopes. Then they fall again, to a lower low, disappointing hopes. That continues until at last, they fall out of the Jaws for an undeniable failure. Before that, though, the Jaws feed on disappointed hopes.
Dow rose 115.,96 to close at 13,900.13 but the S&P500 couldn't quite make it over the morale-building 1,500 and gained only 9.09 (0.61%) to close 1,496.94.
I have just enough bad taste and bad manners to flip the page over to the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver charts and observe that the breakdown there was NOT gainsaid by any bogus rise today. Both are about as broken as a market can be, and I take great heart from that for silver and gold. Those two indicators have been almost infallible over the last 17 years I've been watching them.
US Dollar index backed off 24 basis points (0.31%) today to 81.49. It hit the internal resistance line that marks the shoulder-tops of the head and shoulders it formed from March 2012 - November 2012. Seems to have stopped cold there at 82. RSI is way overbought, which, if the NGM weren't behind the green curtain, would mean it will decline. With them back there working the smoke machine, there's just no telling.
Euro at $1.3060 and Yen at 108.71 were basically flat today. All the talking Nerds -- WHOA!, make that talking heads -- on National Proletarian Radio were frothing and nattering today about how awful and irresponsible it is that the Italians gave a big percentage of their vote to the new block headed by comedian Beppe Grillo. Personally, I think it plainly illustrates how seriously Italians take their politics. Well, no, not that way, but it shows that they understand that politics is nothing but entertainment for us mushrooms anyway, so they might as well be entertained by somebody funny. Hey, if he were alive I'd vote for Jonathan Winters for president in a minute! And he could make George Carlin Chairman of the Fed.
US$1=Y91.99=E0.7657=0.034176 oz Ag=0.006191 oz Au.
Speaking of comedians, today Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee that he believe he is helping the economy by holding down long term interest rates and that ought to be sustained. No, seriously. He said that. Ain't he one heck of a comedian? Yuck, yuck.
On 26 February 1974 Gold hit a new record high of US$188 an ounce in Paris.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Can the Gold Price Close Over $1,605? If it Doesn't the Falling Hasn't Ended
Gold Price Close Today : 1586.20
Change : 13.80 or 0.88%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.987
Change : 0.527 or 1.85%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.721
Change : -0.528 or -0.96%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01827
Change : 0.000175 or 0.97%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1619.60
Change : 13.30 or 0.83%
Palladium Price Close Today : 749.05
Change : 13.75 or 1.87%
S&P 500 : 1,487.85
Change : -27.75 or -1.83%
Dow In GOLD$ : $179.64
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.36%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.690
Change : 0.363 or 4.36%
Dow in SILVER oz : 475.53
Change : -16.41 or -3.34%
Dow Industrial : 13,784.17
Change : -216.40 or -1.55%
US Dollar Index : 81.75
Change : 0.281 or 0.34%
The GOLD PRICE made progress today in climbing above the lower channel line that has held it in since last November. This is positive, but not dispositive. Gold's first task is to climb over $1,605. From there I expect it to march very quickly toward $1,640. If it doesn't, then the falling hasn't ended.
The SILVER PRICE bounced up off its lower channel line, but up above the 200 day moving average is at 3064c. Not coincidentally, resistance/support lurks about the same spot. Silver needs to clear 3050c, then 3100c quickly.
Yes, it's too soon to say for sure, but with the trouble in stocks and the euro today, it appears that silver and gold have found their feet. But be on guard: they need to confirm.
I picked up one of our phones today and it was so hot it nearly burned my hand. LOADS of folks have been waiting for just such an occasion as this to buy silver and gold. I confess, I bought some myself today. Not all I intend to buy, but some.
I reckon if you live by politics, you'll die by politics, too. Pears all the optimists are now all terrified that "sequestration" (which last week they couldn't spell) will cut off the tide of gummint money, and strangle the whole economy. Over in Europe the Establishment technocrat Monti (as in "3-Card") didn't win, so the euro went down in flames since nobody knows whether Italy's even gonna open up tomorrow, let alone have an economy.
As the rats left the euro-boat they jumped ship to the yen. Rats, as y'all probably know, ain't got a lick of sense. The euro fell 1.02% to $1.3058, breaking the uptrend sure enough. No more doubt on that account. The Yen jumped up like an old lady winning the lottery. It rose 1.73% to 108.95c/Y100. Us Dollar index hardly moved, up from Friday's trading about this time by about 28 basis points or 0.3%.
All those optimist rats that had climbed aboard the SS Stockmarket came flying off today, too. Dow lost a choking 216.4 points or 1.55% and closed waaaay down there below 13,850 support at 13,784.17. S&P500 looked worse, down 1.83% (27.75 point) at 1,487.85.
That's not the worst. The Dow made a new high for the move today at 14,081.58, but then closed much lower for the day: first half of a key reversal. A lower close tomorrow (assuming the Nice Government Men can't manipulate it higher, and they ain't God, after all) puts a fatal nail in stocks' coffin.
Hush, I'm not through. I've been telling y'all about those Jaws of Death broadening top pattern forming since the Dow broke out of that rising wedge back in January. Today it ran plumb up to the top of that megaphone, then sliced down through the 20 DMA (13,947.783) and closed BELOW that megaphone's bottom side.
Shucks, when you're the gummint and you can just dummy up enough money to do about anything, including buying stock futures to raise the market and print loads of new money, you can jerk markets around right smart. Your trouble is, as I said, you ain't God, so sooner or later you'll flatten your face up against reality.
Be quiet, I'm not through YET. I opened up the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver charts, and looky there! That close last Wednesday WAS an island reversal, or some kind of reversal, I reckon. That Dow in gold sank from 8.864 oz on Friday to 8.66 oz today, down 4.36%. Dow in silver plunged from 491 to 475.50, 3.34%.
Don't anybody chortle too loudly or smugly just yet, but those stocks are in trouble.
Silver gained 52.7 cents (+1.85%) today to close Comex at 2898.7 cents. Gold added $13.80 (+0.88%) to close $1,586.20. This is good, this is welcome, this is promising, but it ain't cleared the woods by no means.
By the way, I've heard more drivel lately about the so called "Death Cross" of gold's 50 Day Moving Average dropping below its 200 DMA than I heard since Obama ran for president the first time, so I'm gonna hawk that bone out of my throat first. Since 2000, gold has made the so-called death cross five (5) times. In 2000, it lost 4.5% from May to November, but that was BEFORE the bull market began. In 2004, it crossed in June and stayed under till 10 August, with a disastrous fall from a high of $384.50 at the cross to a low of $383.60 at the low (yes, a 90 cent loss). In 2006 the October death cross (they need a new name for that thing) took gold from $593 on the 20th to its low on the 21st at $579.70, a 2.2% drop. Only near-about bad result was in 2008, when gold fell 12.2% from the September cross to its November low at $704.50, losing 12.25. And remember that was amidships of a 200-year financial panic. Average death cross loss has been 4%. Let's worry about something else now.
Meanwhile market sentiment has grown so negative on silver and gold that a rebound, whether the final turnaround or not, is virtually assured. No pendulum swings the same direction forever, unless the clock is clean broke.
On this black day, 25 February 1862, Abraham Lincoln, not content to pursue an aggressive war of destruction against the South and the Constitution, signed the First Legal Tender Act authorizing the issuance of United States notes ("Greenbacks") as a legal tender. Not only did he fight a war to destroy the Constitution, he financed it with unconstitutional fiat money.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : 13.80 or 0.88%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.987
Change : 0.527 or 1.85%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.721
Change : -0.528 or -0.96%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01827
Change : 0.000175 or 0.97%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1619.60
Change : 13.30 or 0.83%
Palladium Price Close Today : 749.05
Change : 13.75 or 1.87%
S&P 500 : 1,487.85
Change : -27.75 or -1.83%
Dow In GOLD$ : $179.64
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.36%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.690
Change : 0.363 or 4.36%
Dow in SILVER oz : 475.53
Change : -16.41 or -3.34%
Dow Industrial : 13,784.17
Change : -216.40 or -1.55%
US Dollar Index : 81.75
Change : 0.281 or 0.34%
The GOLD PRICE made progress today in climbing above the lower channel line that has held it in since last November. This is positive, but not dispositive. Gold's first task is to climb over $1,605. From there I expect it to march very quickly toward $1,640. If it doesn't, then the falling hasn't ended.
The SILVER PRICE bounced up off its lower channel line, but up above the 200 day moving average is at 3064c. Not coincidentally, resistance/support lurks about the same spot. Silver needs to clear 3050c, then 3100c quickly.
Yes, it's too soon to say for sure, but with the trouble in stocks and the euro today, it appears that silver and gold have found their feet. But be on guard: they need to confirm.
I picked up one of our phones today and it was so hot it nearly burned my hand. LOADS of folks have been waiting for just such an occasion as this to buy silver and gold. I confess, I bought some myself today. Not all I intend to buy, but some.
I reckon if you live by politics, you'll die by politics, too. Pears all the optimists are now all terrified that "sequestration" (which last week they couldn't spell) will cut off the tide of gummint money, and strangle the whole economy. Over in Europe the Establishment technocrat Monti (as in "3-Card") didn't win, so the euro went down in flames since nobody knows whether Italy's even gonna open up tomorrow, let alone have an economy.
As the rats left the euro-boat they jumped ship to the yen. Rats, as y'all probably know, ain't got a lick of sense. The euro fell 1.02% to $1.3058, breaking the uptrend sure enough. No more doubt on that account. The Yen jumped up like an old lady winning the lottery. It rose 1.73% to 108.95c/Y100. Us Dollar index hardly moved, up from Friday's trading about this time by about 28 basis points or 0.3%.
All those optimist rats that had climbed aboard the SS Stockmarket came flying off today, too. Dow lost a choking 216.4 points or 1.55% and closed waaaay down there below 13,850 support at 13,784.17. S&P500 looked worse, down 1.83% (27.75 point) at 1,487.85.
That's not the worst. The Dow made a new high for the move today at 14,081.58, but then closed much lower for the day: first half of a key reversal. A lower close tomorrow (assuming the Nice Government Men can't manipulate it higher, and they ain't God, after all) puts a fatal nail in stocks' coffin.
Hush, I'm not through. I've been telling y'all about those Jaws of Death broadening top pattern forming since the Dow broke out of that rising wedge back in January. Today it ran plumb up to the top of that megaphone, then sliced down through the 20 DMA (13,947.783) and closed BELOW that megaphone's bottom side.
Shucks, when you're the gummint and you can just dummy up enough money to do about anything, including buying stock futures to raise the market and print loads of new money, you can jerk markets around right smart. Your trouble is, as I said, you ain't God, so sooner or later you'll flatten your face up against reality.
Be quiet, I'm not through YET. I opened up the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver charts, and looky there! That close last Wednesday WAS an island reversal, or some kind of reversal, I reckon. That Dow in gold sank from 8.864 oz on Friday to 8.66 oz today, down 4.36%. Dow in silver plunged from 491 to 475.50, 3.34%.
Don't anybody chortle too loudly or smugly just yet, but those stocks are in trouble.
Silver gained 52.7 cents (+1.85%) today to close Comex at 2898.7 cents. Gold added $13.80 (+0.88%) to close $1,586.20. This is good, this is welcome, this is promising, but it ain't cleared the woods by no means.
By the way, I've heard more drivel lately about the so called "Death Cross" of gold's 50 Day Moving Average dropping below its 200 DMA than I heard since Obama ran for president the first time, so I'm gonna hawk that bone out of my throat first. Since 2000, gold has made the so-called death cross five (5) times. In 2000, it lost 4.5% from May to November, but that was BEFORE the bull market began. In 2004, it crossed in June and stayed under till 10 August, with a disastrous fall from a high of $384.50 at the cross to a low of $383.60 at the low (yes, a 90 cent loss). In 2006 the October death cross (they need a new name for that thing) took gold from $593 on the 20th to its low on the 21st at $579.70, a 2.2% drop. Only near-about bad result was in 2008, when gold fell 12.2% from the September cross to its November low at $704.50, losing 12.25. And remember that was amidships of a 200-year financial panic. Average death cross loss has been 4%. Let's worry about something else now.
Meanwhile market sentiment has grown so negative on silver and gold that a rebound, whether the final turnaround or not, is virtually assured. No pendulum swings the same direction forever, unless the clock is clean broke.
On this black day, 25 February 1862, Abraham Lincoln, not content to pursue an aggressive war of destruction against the South and the Constitution, signed the First Legal Tender Act authorizing the issuance of United States notes ("Greenbacks") as a legal tender. Not only did he fight a war to destroy the Constitution, he financed it with unconstitutional fiat money.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Friday, February 22, 2013
The Silver and Gold Price Took a Beating this Week — Inflation Continues Gold Will Rise
Gold Price Close Today : 1,572.40
Gold Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 1,608.80
Change : -36.40 or -2.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.46
Silver Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 29.84
Change : -1.38 or -4.6%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.249
Gold Silver Ratio 15-Feb-13 : 53.916
Change : 1.33 or 2.5%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01810
Silver Gold Ratio 15-Feb-13 : 0.01855
Change : -0.00045 or -2.4%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 184.06
Dow in Gold Dollars 15-Feb-13 : $ 178.98
Change : $5.08 or 2.8%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.904
Dow in Gold Ounces 15-Feb-13 : 8.658
Change : 0.25 or 2.8%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 491.94
Dow in Silver Ounces 15-Feb-13 : 466.81
Change : 25.13 or 5.4%
Dow Industrial : 14,000.57
Dow Industrial 15-Feb-13 : 13,929.23
Change : 71.34 or 0.5%
S&P 500 : 1,515.60
S&P 500 15-Feb-13 : 1,519.64
Change : -4.04 or -0.3%
US Dollar Index : 80.470
US Dollar Index 15-Feb-13 : 80.507
Change : -0.037 or 0.0%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,606.30
Platinum Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 1,676.60
Change : -70.30 or -4.2%
Palladium Price Close Today : 735.30
Palladium Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 752.75
Change : -17.45 or -2.3%
The silver and GOLD PRICE have been beat with a barbed wire whip this week. Stocks moved sideways, as did the US dollar. Platinum and Palladium went to the woodshed, too. And to all of you folks who are sending me prophecies from Nostradamus, etc., about what silver and gold will do, I appreciate your efforts but I'll pass.
On Comex the GOLD PRICE lost $5.80 and plagued yesterday's trading with equivocation today. Silver lost 23.9 cents to 2846c. Both are up stoutly in the aftermarket, gold to $1,582 and silver to 2880c.
On a five day chart gold made a spike bottom about $1,558 Wednesday night, then climbed to a high at $1,586.93 today. That leg up looks impulsive, i.e., that's not merely a reaction to the previous fall, but the direction the market wants to go. Gold backed off most of the day, and the close at $1,572.40 nearly caught the low at $1,571.50. That low was about $10 higher than yesterday's. If gold intends to continue rising, it must not break today's low.
Longer term chart offers more encouragement still. Day before yesterday and yesterday gold punctured the lower Bollinger Band. Generally that marks the extremity of the move. Now it has traded up above the downtrend line form the 2011 high, and back within the lower B-band. RSI is strongly oversold and has been for a week. It's too early to judge, but all these point to a reversal soon.
Remember that at lows everybody is fearful, but at highs they bulge with bravery -- just the opposite of how they ought to feel. Therefore negative sentiment and pessimism -- especially our own -- often accurately pinpoints lows.
The SILVER PRICE five day chart reveals double bottoms Wednesday at 2631c and Thursday at 2832c. Today a third low came in at 2836c. Clearly, silver will fall much further if it breaks 2830c. Up above it needs to clamber over the wall at 2890c.
On the four month chart silver never has fallen as far as the downtrend line from April 2011 high. It has clung regularly to a higher downtrend line, the bottom of its trading channel. In the last three days it visited that lower channel line, and broke through the bottom B-bands. Today it closed again inside the B-bands. Other indicators are also oversold.
I ruefully confess that the stubborn length of this correction has buffaloed me over and over, and stocks' strength. Then again, I don't claim to be a clairvoyant. When this happens I run back to my premises and check them out. They're still sound. Inflation continues, silver and gold will keep on rising. Cause continues, so will the effect.
Some sign will emerge, probably soon, that tells us it's time to load up on silver and gold. Meanwhile, the brave can buy.
Stocks had a rough week, but strong day. At the very end of the day today it managed to reach 14,000 and climb over by half a point -- I'm not making this up. Dow closed at 14,000.57, up 119.95 (-.86). Not to be outdone, the S&P500 rose 13.18 (0.88%) to 1,515.60. Trend remains up and unbroken for stocks, but the down must not close below 13,835. Will most like reach a new all-time high very soon. Only thing in the way is 14,035.
No, I have not changed my mind about stocks. The top of this move will bring cheering and shouts, but that joy will turn to sharp sorrow. Look at stocks adjusted for inflation: the high came in 2000, and they remain in a primary down trend (bear market). Yes, I know that makes me sound dumber than a horned toad, but there it is.
Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver gapped up two days ago, gapped down yesterday, then rose a little today. Three days ago looked like a top, last two days they have blown hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth, like the man who killed his parents then threw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan. Not sure what to make of it yet, but tain't normal, and 'twon't live long this way.
About this time yesterday the dollar index was trading at 81.475, and today is trading at 81.47. Dollar index is bumping up against 81.60, trying to break through to 82 - 82.50.
Every convincing lie contains some truth. That little bit of truth is what makes the counterfeit believable. Hence Ben the Bagman must occasionally manage the dollar upward to create the illusion of strength.
It's all a great illusion, the economy, the financial system, the banks, but as long as enough people believe the lie, the liar can get by with it. At times it takes so long that you begin to wonder if you ain't WORSE than a natural born fool for holding back, for not just going along to get along. Then you shake your head and say, "Shucks! I'd rather be a fool than a liar any day. A fool may be taken, but liars will be fryers." I ain't THAT big a fool.
The euro kept its head down and stayed flat today, closed at $1.3187, no change. Chart screams loudly that its rally is broken. Only needs to drop below $1.3150 to confirm that.
Yen continues to move sideways. Lost 0.32% today to close at 107.04. Euro/Yen cross rate rose a little today, but hit its high at 1 February and appears to have turned. Probably part of a deal made before the G20 met.
US$1=Y93.42=E0.7583=0.035137 oz Ag=0.000636 oz. Au.
On 22 February 1793 died Roger Sherman, b. 1721. He helped draft and signed the Declaration of Independence, member of the Continental Congress, and served in the constitutional convention (1787). It was Sherman who saw there an opportunity to shut and bar the door against paper money. Thus the new constitution did not allow the federal government to issue paper money, and provided that "No state shall . . . make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts." Wonder is that though these words stand unchanged and unchallenged today, the safety they provide to all of us has been stolen. You want to see a judge wince and wallow and throw you in jail, next time you go to court for a traffic fine, etc., say to the judge, "Your honor, I want to pay this fine, but I understand that the constitution provides that no state shall make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt. Unless I give you gold and silver coin, I can't be sure I've paid the fine, but I have none. How can I pay the fine?"
It will change your life.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Gold Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 1,608.80
Change : -36.40 or -2.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.46
Silver Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 29.84
Change : -1.38 or -4.6%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.249
Gold Silver Ratio 15-Feb-13 : 53.916
Change : 1.33 or 2.5%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01810
Silver Gold Ratio 15-Feb-13 : 0.01855
Change : -0.00045 or -2.4%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 184.06
Dow in Gold Dollars 15-Feb-13 : $ 178.98
Change : $5.08 or 2.8%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.904
Dow in Gold Ounces 15-Feb-13 : 8.658
Change : 0.25 or 2.8%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 491.94
Dow in Silver Ounces 15-Feb-13 : 466.81
Change : 25.13 or 5.4%
Dow Industrial : 14,000.57
Dow Industrial 15-Feb-13 : 13,929.23
Change : 71.34 or 0.5%
S&P 500 : 1,515.60
S&P 500 15-Feb-13 : 1,519.64
Change : -4.04 or -0.3%
US Dollar Index : 80.470
US Dollar Index 15-Feb-13 : 80.507
Change : -0.037 or 0.0%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,606.30
Platinum Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 1,676.60
Change : -70.30 or -4.2%
Palladium Price Close Today : 735.30
Palladium Price Close 15-Feb-13 : 752.75
Change : -17.45 or -2.3%
The silver and GOLD PRICE have been beat with a barbed wire whip this week. Stocks moved sideways, as did the US dollar. Platinum and Palladium went to the woodshed, too. And to all of you folks who are sending me prophecies from Nostradamus, etc., about what silver and gold will do, I appreciate your efforts but I'll pass.
On Comex the GOLD PRICE lost $5.80 and plagued yesterday's trading with equivocation today. Silver lost 23.9 cents to 2846c. Both are up stoutly in the aftermarket, gold to $1,582 and silver to 2880c.
On a five day chart gold made a spike bottom about $1,558 Wednesday night, then climbed to a high at $1,586.93 today. That leg up looks impulsive, i.e., that's not merely a reaction to the previous fall, but the direction the market wants to go. Gold backed off most of the day, and the close at $1,572.40 nearly caught the low at $1,571.50. That low was about $10 higher than yesterday's. If gold intends to continue rising, it must not break today's low.
Longer term chart offers more encouragement still. Day before yesterday and yesterday gold punctured the lower Bollinger Band. Generally that marks the extremity of the move. Now it has traded up above the downtrend line form the 2011 high, and back within the lower B-band. RSI is strongly oversold and has been for a week. It's too early to judge, but all these point to a reversal soon.
Remember that at lows everybody is fearful, but at highs they bulge with bravery -- just the opposite of how they ought to feel. Therefore negative sentiment and pessimism -- especially our own -- often accurately pinpoints lows.
The SILVER PRICE five day chart reveals double bottoms Wednesday at 2631c and Thursday at 2832c. Today a third low came in at 2836c. Clearly, silver will fall much further if it breaks 2830c. Up above it needs to clamber over the wall at 2890c.
On the four month chart silver never has fallen as far as the downtrend line from April 2011 high. It has clung regularly to a higher downtrend line, the bottom of its trading channel. In the last three days it visited that lower channel line, and broke through the bottom B-bands. Today it closed again inside the B-bands. Other indicators are also oversold.
I ruefully confess that the stubborn length of this correction has buffaloed me over and over, and stocks' strength. Then again, I don't claim to be a clairvoyant. When this happens I run back to my premises and check them out. They're still sound. Inflation continues, silver and gold will keep on rising. Cause continues, so will the effect.
Some sign will emerge, probably soon, that tells us it's time to load up on silver and gold. Meanwhile, the brave can buy.
Stocks had a rough week, but strong day. At the very end of the day today it managed to reach 14,000 and climb over by half a point -- I'm not making this up. Dow closed at 14,000.57, up 119.95 (-.86). Not to be outdone, the S&P500 rose 13.18 (0.88%) to 1,515.60. Trend remains up and unbroken for stocks, but the down must not close below 13,835. Will most like reach a new all-time high very soon. Only thing in the way is 14,035.
No, I have not changed my mind about stocks. The top of this move will bring cheering and shouts, but that joy will turn to sharp sorrow. Look at stocks adjusted for inflation: the high came in 2000, and they remain in a primary down trend (bear market). Yes, I know that makes me sound dumber than a horned toad, but there it is.
Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver gapped up two days ago, gapped down yesterday, then rose a little today. Three days ago looked like a top, last two days they have blown hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth, like the man who killed his parents then threw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan. Not sure what to make of it yet, but tain't normal, and 'twon't live long this way.
About this time yesterday the dollar index was trading at 81.475, and today is trading at 81.47. Dollar index is bumping up against 81.60, trying to break through to 82 - 82.50.
Every convincing lie contains some truth. That little bit of truth is what makes the counterfeit believable. Hence Ben the Bagman must occasionally manage the dollar upward to create the illusion of strength.
It's all a great illusion, the economy, the financial system, the banks, but as long as enough people believe the lie, the liar can get by with it. At times it takes so long that you begin to wonder if you ain't WORSE than a natural born fool for holding back, for not just going along to get along. Then you shake your head and say, "Shucks! I'd rather be a fool than a liar any day. A fool may be taken, but liars will be fryers." I ain't THAT big a fool.
The euro kept its head down and stayed flat today, closed at $1.3187, no change. Chart screams loudly that its rally is broken. Only needs to drop below $1.3150 to confirm that.
Yen continues to move sideways. Lost 0.32% today to close at 107.04. Euro/Yen cross rate rose a little today, but hit its high at 1 February and appears to have turned. Probably part of a deal made before the G20 met.
US$1=Y93.42=E0.7583=0.035137 oz Ag=0.000636 oz. Au.
On 22 February 1793 died Roger Sherman, b. 1721. He helped draft and signed the Declaration of Independence, member of the Continental Congress, and served in the constitutional convention (1787). It was Sherman who saw there an opportunity to shut and bar the door against paper money. Thus the new constitution did not allow the federal government to issue paper money, and provided that "No state shall . . . make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts." Wonder is that though these words stand unchanged and unchallenged today, the safety they provide to all of us has been stolen. You want to see a judge wince and wallow and throw you in jail, next time you go to court for a traffic fine, etc., say to the judge, "Your honor, I want to pay this fine, but I understand that the constitution provides that no state shall make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt. Unless I give you gold and silver coin, I can't be sure I've paid the fine, but I have none. How can I pay the fine?"
It will change your life.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
The Silver and Gold Price Must Not Close Below the Last Two Days' Lows
Gold Price Close Today : 1578.20
Change : 0.60 or 0.04%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.695
Change : 0.080 or 0.28%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.999
Change : -0.133 or -0.24%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01818
Change : 0.000044 or 0.24%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1618.90
Change : -27.10 or -1.65%
Palladium Price Close Today : 733.20
Change : -2.80 or -0.38%
S&P 500 : 1,502.42
Change : -9.53 or -0.63%
Dow In GOLD$ : $181.81
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.30%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.795
Change : 0.363 or 4.30%
Dow in SILVER oz : 483.73
Change : -2.97 or -0.61%
Dow Industrial : 13,880.62
Change : -46.20 or -0.33%
US Dollar Index : 81.48
Change : 0.392 or 0.48%
You'd think the silver and GOLD PRICE had stayed home in bed today judging by their Comex Closes. Gold closed up sixty cents (spell it out it's so small) at $1,578.20 while silver gained eight cents to 2869.5c. However, other charts don't tell that story.
Overnight the GOLD PRICE hit a lower low, about $1,558 but from midnight forward (NYC time) rallied as high as $1,584.70. This has the look of a key reversal.
What's that? When a market trades into new low ground for the move, then closes the day higher, that's the first half of a key reversal. Second and necessary half is a higher close the next day, i.e., tomorrow. All this plainly shows on an EOD (End of the Day) chart. With sentiment dragging the bottom, the RSI at a 12 year low, and gold trading below its lower Bollinger Band, gold is screaming time to slam it into reverse.
But screaming won't change gears. That takes market action, and I want to see some proof, like higher closes tomorrow for both silver and gold.
The SILVER PRICE looks much the same as gold, but didn't quite make a lower low today. Hit 2832c at the bottom and 2884.2c at the high.
However, silver's three day chart shows a double bottom yesterday and today, and a rise out of that bottom most of the day. Needs to close above 2884c tomorrow to make that look like a bottom.
Be patient. Better days are coming soon, as long as silver and gold don't close below the last two days' lows. Let's watch.
If the object of the FOMC manipulation was to drive down the euro against the dollar, it worked today. Euro dropped 0.75% to $1.3186, while the US dollar index (about half comprised of the euro) rose 0.5% or 39.2 basis points to 81.475. The euro gapped down and closed beneath its 62 day moving average. Euro's momentum indicators are screaming in freefall. Test will come about $1.3150. If it falls thru that, 'twill fall much more, say to the 200 DMA at $1.2827. More bad economic news out of Europe today will speed that fall. Surprise. European economy is not recovering. Euro fell 1.21% against the yen.
Yen gained 0.45% today to close at 107.38 cents per 100 yen. For better than two weeks the yen has traded sideways, but now has risen high enough to approach its 20 DMA (108.04) and the first sign of a reversal.
US Dollar index's close yesterday took it above the 200 DMA (80.92). Today it added to that gain 39.2 more basis points to end at 81.475. Dollar index has a minimum of 82 targeted, and perhaps higher. Of course, given the hyperactive Nice Government Men, that could change at any time.
The day wasn't kind to stocks. The Dow broke 13,900 to close down 46.92 (0.34%) at 13,880.62. The day was less kind to the S&P500, which lost 9.53 or 0.63%, closing at 1,502.42.
Right now 13,800 is the magic number for the Dow. It must hold that or tumble at least another 150 points.
AHA! Both the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver gapped down today, leaving yesterday's high isolated above and looking much like an island reversal. If so, both ought to follow through with lower closes tomorrow.
If confirmed, that implies stocks have peaked against silver and gold, and will cheapen against them.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : 0.60 or 0.04%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.695
Change : 0.080 or 0.28%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.999
Change : -0.133 or -0.24%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01818
Change : 0.000044 or 0.24%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1618.90
Change : -27.10 or -1.65%
Palladium Price Close Today : 733.20
Change : -2.80 or -0.38%
S&P 500 : 1,502.42
Change : -9.53 or -0.63%
Dow In GOLD$ : $181.81
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.30%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.795
Change : 0.363 or 4.30%
Dow in SILVER oz : 483.73
Change : -2.97 or -0.61%
Dow Industrial : 13,880.62
Change : -46.20 or -0.33%
US Dollar Index : 81.48
Change : 0.392 or 0.48%
You'd think the silver and GOLD PRICE had stayed home in bed today judging by their Comex Closes. Gold closed up sixty cents (spell it out it's so small) at $1,578.20 while silver gained eight cents to 2869.5c. However, other charts don't tell that story.
Overnight the GOLD PRICE hit a lower low, about $1,558 but from midnight forward (NYC time) rallied as high as $1,584.70. This has the look of a key reversal.
What's that? When a market trades into new low ground for the move, then closes the day higher, that's the first half of a key reversal. Second and necessary half is a higher close the next day, i.e., tomorrow. All this plainly shows on an EOD (End of the Day) chart. With sentiment dragging the bottom, the RSI at a 12 year low, and gold trading below its lower Bollinger Band, gold is screaming time to slam it into reverse.
But screaming won't change gears. That takes market action, and I want to see some proof, like higher closes tomorrow for both silver and gold.
The SILVER PRICE looks much the same as gold, but didn't quite make a lower low today. Hit 2832c at the bottom and 2884.2c at the high.
However, silver's three day chart shows a double bottom yesterday and today, and a rise out of that bottom most of the day. Needs to close above 2884c tomorrow to make that look like a bottom.
Be patient. Better days are coming soon, as long as silver and gold don't close below the last two days' lows. Let's watch.
If the object of the FOMC manipulation was to drive down the euro against the dollar, it worked today. Euro dropped 0.75% to $1.3186, while the US dollar index (about half comprised of the euro) rose 0.5% or 39.2 basis points to 81.475. The euro gapped down and closed beneath its 62 day moving average. Euro's momentum indicators are screaming in freefall. Test will come about $1.3150. If it falls thru that, 'twill fall much more, say to the 200 DMA at $1.2827. More bad economic news out of Europe today will speed that fall. Surprise. European economy is not recovering. Euro fell 1.21% against the yen.
Yen gained 0.45% today to close at 107.38 cents per 100 yen. For better than two weeks the yen has traded sideways, but now has risen high enough to approach its 20 DMA (108.04) and the first sign of a reversal.
US Dollar index's close yesterday took it above the 200 DMA (80.92). Today it added to that gain 39.2 more basis points to end at 81.475. Dollar index has a minimum of 82 targeted, and perhaps higher. Of course, given the hyperactive Nice Government Men, that could change at any time.
The day wasn't kind to stocks. The Dow broke 13,900 to close down 46.92 (0.34%) at 13,880.62. The day was less kind to the S&P500, which lost 9.53 or 0.63%, closing at 1,502.42.
Right now 13,800 is the magic number for the Dow. It must hold that or tumble at least another 150 points.
AHA! Both the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver gapped down today, leaving yesterday's high isolated above and looking much like an island reversal. If so, both ought to follow through with lower closes tomorrow.
If confirmed, that implies stocks have peaked against silver and gold, and will cheapen against them.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Gold Price fell to the Bottom of it's Trading Channel Multiple Indicators are Pointing Up
Gold Price Close Today : 1577.60
Change : -26.00 or -1.62%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.615
Change : -0.798 or -2.71%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.132
Change : 0.612 or 1.12%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01814
Change : -0.000204 or -1.11%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1646.00
Change : -50.40 or -2.97%
Palladium Price Close Today : 736.00
Change : -27.75 or -3.63%
S&P 500 : 1,511.95
Change : -18.99 or -1.24%
Dow In GOLD$ : $182.50
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.29%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.828
Change : 0.363 or 4.29%
Dow in SILVER oz : 486.72
Change : 9.53 or 2.00%
Dow Industrial : 13,927.54
Change : -108.13 or -0.77%
US Dollar Index : 81.07
Change : 0.554 or 0.69%
Whooo! The GOLD PRICE lost $26.00 (1.62%) to $1,577.60 and silver lost 79.8 cents (2.71%) to 2861.5 cents.
Reckon that's the Day of Doom for silver and gold? Ahh, come not too hastily to judgment.
Today's fall brought silver and gold to the bottom of their trading channels. That ought to be the place where they turn around, "ought" being the key word. But then, it's hard to imagine sentiment becoming more universally negative. The only fact that bothers me and argues against that turn around is that gold closed today the least bit below the downtrend line from the 2011 high. Silver did not. In fact, silver's bottom channel line sands considerably above that downtrend line from the 2011 high, still.
Then there are other indicators. The RSI for gold has been extremely low for a week, lower than 2008, lower than any time in the past ten years. Gold's MACD has turned straight down, lowest since mid-2012.
The SILVER PRICE RSI has been very negative for two days, and the MACD is plummeting. RSI isn't the lowest in 10 years, but about the only time it was lower was 2008. Those indicators scream that some pivotal low is near. However, "near" might last a while.
The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has nearly reached the top of its trading channel, too, also whispering that some sort of low in metals lurks in the near future. Tis also way overbought. Remember, too, those Bollinger Bands I mentioned yesterday, showing gold and silver poised for a turnaround.
Gold's low for today was $1,565.60, which marked a retracement of the previous rally slightly greater than 75%. Silver's 75% retracement lies at 2842c, and today's low was 2831c.
If none of these factors catch silver and gold, look for falls to $1,525 and silver to 2610c.
Wait a day or so before buying, to see some sign confirming a turnaround. Meanwhile keep your eye on the horizon, not on the headlines.
Behold, the Fed MUST inflate, or die. It was created to inflate, and it must inflate or die, taking the economy down with it. Therefore, whenever the Fed talks about ending or containing inflation, it is lying. But it lies artfully and well, as it must to keep the victims of inflation -- that's y'all -- in the trap. Otherwise the realizers will wake up and escape the depreciating dollar.
In the course of managing inflation expectations, the Fed from time to time appears to change course abruptly, as it seemed with the FOMC minutes released today. Why? To punish the realizers, to make them doubt themselves and scoot them back into the trap. The trap remains eternal, only the number of victims varies.
Today on the Fed's FOMC publication stocks, bonds, and metals tanked and the dollar shot up 55 basis points. Is that merely Fed clumsiness roiling markets? Well, no, although that often explains their goofy moves. Rather, it is aimed at manipulating sentiment in their direction, at confusing markets so no movement -- like a flight from the dollar into gold and silver -- builds too much momentum.
Look, do y'all want to understand the Fed and its magic? It's all explained in the movie, "The Wizard of Oz." Remember when Dorothy and her friends visit the Great and Terrible Oz in his audience room? They are trembling, but her little dog Toto pulls back the curtain that conceals the real wizard, working the levers of the smoke machine and mirrors. If you want to understand the Fed, just remember that scene. The shabby, feckless medicine man behind the curtain is Ben Bernanke, and he and his crew are constantly shouting to the trembling public, "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain! I am the Great and Terrible Oz!"
That great philosopher Yogurt in Mel Brooks' movie "Space Balls" summed it up: "It's moichendizing!"
Here's a quotation that says it all, from Peter Schiff in a CNBC interview on 15 February:
"The real gold investors are not selling. The traders are selling; those are leveraged speculators focused on the short term price. Individual investors, buyers of gold in the past years, and my clients are buying for gold for his store of value. They see this price correction as an opportunity to buy more. They do not care about the short term market noise."
Now, what happened today? Stocks took a deep wound. Dow fell 108.13 (0.77%) to 13,927.54 and S&P500 fell 18.99 (1.24%) to 1,511.95. Next support for the Dow is about 13,850 - 13,800. Below that lay large gaps, with the first support about 13,600, next at 13,350.
That fall doesn't nearly break stocks' uptrend yet. A close below 13,750 would do that, though.
Here's an eyecatcher: Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver both gapped UP [not down] strongly today. Looks like an exhaustion gap, that is, the limit of the move. If so, both will trade lower immediately or after a few days crabwise movement. These indicators show us not only what stocks are doing, but what silver and gold intend, too.
The US dollar index' surge today hurt the euro much more than the yen. Dollar index rose 55.4 basis points (0.71%) to 81.068. Don't miss the close above 81. Just above at 80.91 stands the 200 Day Moving Average. How the dollar acts there will foretell whether it will rally or melt away again. The 80.66 to 80.90 level has stopped rises since Mid-November 2012, so today's jump promises higher dollar rates.
Today the yen closed 106.84c/Y100, down a tiny 0.04%. The euro, however, fell 0.82% to $1.3277, so maybe the entire FOMC drama was staged to bring the euro down and satisfy Draghi after the price-cutting Japanese got away with their spoils at the G20 meeting. Euro is verging on falling through its 50 and 62 DMAs.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : -26.00 or -1.62%
Silver Price Close Today : 28.615
Change : -0.798 or -2.71%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.132
Change : 0.612 or 1.12%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01814
Change : -0.000204 or -1.11%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1646.00
Change : -50.40 or -2.97%
Palladium Price Close Today : 736.00
Change : -27.75 or -3.63%
S&P 500 : 1,511.95
Change : -18.99 or -1.24%
Dow In GOLD$ : $182.50
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.29%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.828
Change : 0.363 or 4.29%
Dow in SILVER oz : 486.72
Change : 9.53 or 2.00%
Dow Industrial : 13,927.54
Change : -108.13 or -0.77%
US Dollar Index : 81.07
Change : 0.554 or 0.69%
Whooo! The GOLD PRICE lost $26.00 (1.62%) to $1,577.60 and silver lost 79.8 cents (2.71%) to 2861.5 cents.
Reckon that's the Day of Doom for silver and gold? Ahh, come not too hastily to judgment.
Today's fall brought silver and gold to the bottom of their trading channels. That ought to be the place where they turn around, "ought" being the key word. But then, it's hard to imagine sentiment becoming more universally negative. The only fact that bothers me and argues against that turn around is that gold closed today the least bit below the downtrend line from the 2011 high. Silver did not. In fact, silver's bottom channel line sands considerably above that downtrend line from the 2011 high, still.
Then there are other indicators. The RSI for gold has been extremely low for a week, lower than 2008, lower than any time in the past ten years. Gold's MACD has turned straight down, lowest since mid-2012.
The SILVER PRICE RSI has been very negative for two days, and the MACD is plummeting. RSI isn't the lowest in 10 years, but about the only time it was lower was 2008. Those indicators scream that some pivotal low is near. However, "near" might last a while.
The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has nearly reached the top of its trading channel, too, also whispering that some sort of low in metals lurks in the near future. Tis also way overbought. Remember, too, those Bollinger Bands I mentioned yesterday, showing gold and silver poised for a turnaround.
Gold's low for today was $1,565.60, which marked a retracement of the previous rally slightly greater than 75%. Silver's 75% retracement lies at 2842c, and today's low was 2831c.
If none of these factors catch silver and gold, look for falls to $1,525 and silver to 2610c.
Wait a day or so before buying, to see some sign confirming a turnaround. Meanwhile keep your eye on the horizon, not on the headlines.
Behold, the Fed MUST inflate, or die. It was created to inflate, and it must inflate or die, taking the economy down with it. Therefore, whenever the Fed talks about ending or containing inflation, it is lying. But it lies artfully and well, as it must to keep the victims of inflation -- that's y'all -- in the trap. Otherwise the realizers will wake up and escape the depreciating dollar.
In the course of managing inflation expectations, the Fed from time to time appears to change course abruptly, as it seemed with the FOMC minutes released today. Why? To punish the realizers, to make them doubt themselves and scoot them back into the trap. The trap remains eternal, only the number of victims varies.
Today on the Fed's FOMC publication stocks, bonds, and metals tanked and the dollar shot up 55 basis points. Is that merely Fed clumsiness roiling markets? Well, no, although that often explains their goofy moves. Rather, it is aimed at manipulating sentiment in their direction, at confusing markets so no movement -- like a flight from the dollar into gold and silver -- builds too much momentum.
Look, do y'all want to understand the Fed and its magic? It's all explained in the movie, "The Wizard of Oz." Remember when Dorothy and her friends visit the Great and Terrible Oz in his audience room? They are trembling, but her little dog Toto pulls back the curtain that conceals the real wizard, working the levers of the smoke machine and mirrors. If you want to understand the Fed, just remember that scene. The shabby, feckless medicine man behind the curtain is Ben Bernanke, and he and his crew are constantly shouting to the trembling public, "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain! I am the Great and Terrible Oz!"
That great philosopher Yogurt in Mel Brooks' movie "Space Balls" summed it up: "It's moichendizing!"
Here's a quotation that says it all, from Peter Schiff in a CNBC interview on 15 February:
"The real gold investors are not selling. The traders are selling; those are leveraged speculators focused on the short term price. Individual investors, buyers of gold in the past years, and my clients are buying for gold for his store of value. They see this price correction as an opportunity to buy more. They do not care about the short term market noise."
Now, what happened today? Stocks took a deep wound. Dow fell 108.13 (0.77%) to 13,927.54 and S&P500 fell 18.99 (1.24%) to 1,511.95. Next support for the Dow is about 13,850 - 13,800. Below that lay large gaps, with the first support about 13,600, next at 13,350.
That fall doesn't nearly break stocks' uptrend yet. A close below 13,750 would do that, though.
Here's an eyecatcher: Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver both gapped UP [not down] strongly today. Looks like an exhaustion gap, that is, the limit of the move. If so, both will trade lower immediately or after a few days crabwise movement. These indicators show us not only what stocks are doing, but what silver and gold intend, too.
The US dollar index' surge today hurt the euro much more than the yen. Dollar index rose 55.4 basis points (0.71%) to 81.068. Don't miss the close above 81. Just above at 80.91 stands the 200 Day Moving Average. How the dollar acts there will foretell whether it will rally or melt away again. The 80.66 to 80.90 level has stopped rises since Mid-November 2012, so today's jump promises higher dollar rates.
Today the yen closed 106.84c/Y100, down a tiny 0.04%. The euro, however, fell 0.82% to $1.3277, so maybe the entire FOMC drama was staged to bring the euro down and satisfy Draghi after the price-cutting Japanese got away with their spoils at the G20 meeting. Euro is verging on falling through its 50 and 62 DMAs.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
The Gold Price Lost $5.20 How Far Will it Fall?
Gold Price Close Today : 1603.60
Change : -5.20 or -0.32%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.413
Change : -0.426 or -1.43%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.520
Change : 0.604 or 1.12%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01834
Change : -0.000206 or -1.11%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1696.40
Change : 19.80 or 1.18%
Palladium Price Close Today : 763.75
Change : 11.00 or 1.46%
S&P 500 : 1,530.94
Change : 11.15 or 0.73%
Dow In GOLD$ : $180.93
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.32%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.753
Change : 0.363 or 4.32%
Dow in SILVER oz : 477.19
Change : 8.62 or 1.84%
Dow Industrial : 14,035.67
Change : 53.91 or 0.39%
US Dollar Index : 80.36
Change : -0.157 or -0.19%
The GOLD PRICE gave back $5.30 off Friday's close to end at $1,603.60. Silver lost 42.6 cents today to end at 2941.3c. Okay, Moneychanger, explain why that DOESN'T mean silver and gold are broken.
Lacking a crystal ball, I don't know whether they are broken or not, but I can list the votes for and against and you can weigh them and tote them up yourself.
On a five day chart the GOLD PRICE put in bottoms just above $1,600 on Friday and today. Is that a double bottom marking the end of the decline? Beats me, but there it sits, hollering, and if gold rises from here and doesn't later fall below that level, y'all will look back and say, "Why, shucks, that WAS a double bottom after all."
Gold's low today came at $1,601.61, but it couldn't climb higher than $1,614.47. It's late for me as I write this (nearly 9:00 p.m. against my usual 5:30 p.m.) and the aftermarket has climbed up to Friday's close, $1,603.70.
On a four month chart gold has fallen to the downtrend line from the August 2011 high, which ought to, and better, offer support. More: in the last two days it has traded outside the bottom Bollinger Band. That measures variability, and to punch through that bottom line implies GOLD is very much oversold and due an immediate rebound. Seldom happens that a market breaks that bottom line and continues to fall without a rebound In gold's case, over the last 2-1/2 years it has never pierced the bottom B-band and kept on falling. Rather, it has always rebounded at least a little, most of the time a lot. Only once has it kept on skidding along the bottom line for several weeks.
Gold's waterfall over the last week also brings it to that downtrend line from the 2011 high. After the August breakout through and above that line to $1,800, that completes a correction back to the line for a final kiss good-bye, often seen in breakouts.
Could the GOLD PRICE still drop to $1,525 and shake out all the weak holders, and scare the rest of us to death? Yep, but not without first breaking this $1,600 level. In any event, gut-wrenching and stomach-churning as it is, here is exactly the sort of place where you have to screw up your courage and buy. May prove the wrong move, but if it's right, 'twill be spectacularly right.
Unlike gold silver made a lower low than Friday, falling to 2929c today. After a fast waterfall about 10:30 that low came about 1:15. Rest of the day silver held steady and now is at 2961c.
The SILVER PRICE has reached not its downtrend line from the April 2011 high, but has just about matched its 4 January 2013 low at 2924c. And it has punched through the bottom B-band two days running, a bullish sign. (By the way, those Bollinger bands work just the same in reverse at tops.)
Does any cosmic law state that silver won't return to the 2615c bottoms of last year? Nope.
Worst feature on both silver and gold charts is that both have broken the uptrend line from the May/June lows. A spike through the line is permissible, lingering is not. Both will have to pick up sharply and close above $1,630 and 3100 cents very soon, or drop further.
Nerve wracking as these long corrections may be, they don't gainsay the primary uptrend in silver and gold. What drives that? Central bank inflation. This past weekend the central banks just confirmed again, in case you have been deaf, dumb, blind, and locked in the basement since 2006, that they will continue to inflate. Cause remains, effect will continue.
As I suspected, the G20 meeting issued a verbose statement bleached of all meaning. However, a lot was written between the lines. Whenever they say, "We will refrain from competitive devaluation," it means that behind the scenes there's an eye-gouging, ear-biting, nose-slitting bar-fight behind the scenes over that very thing. What hypocrisy! Every single central bank is depreciating its currency as fast as possible, they simply don't want any other country to leave them behind. "We're all depreciating, but we must depreciate in step." As I suspected, the silver and gold bull market is safe because once again central banks and governments have affirmed that they will continue to supply the one force that drives silver and gold up: inflation.
Why, you may ask, if all that's true, did silver and gold drop today? One mistake people make is to assume that causes have their outworking in markets immediately. Markets are pushed around by fads like any other human undertaking, but sooner or later causes will have effects.
The Japanese escaped the G20 meeting without the whipping they deserved if the G20 really were enforcing a ban on competitive devaluation ("currency war"). Yen may finally have stopped falling after a 105.86c intraday low six days ago. It has gently curved up, and closed today at 106.87c/Y100, but hasn't flashed the first sign of a reversal by crossing above its 20 DMA (108.6).
US Dollar index benefitted not at all from the G20 summit. Trading now at 80.357, about where it ended last Thursday. However, dollar index stands above its 20 and 50 DMAs, and has established a clear if sluggish uptrend. Well, call it a short term uptrend in its crablike range. Needs to climb above 80.90 even to merit suspicion of a rally, and above 81.50 to confirm it.
The euro meanwhile remains in what is either a correction or broken uptrend. Closed today up 0.19% at $1.3387, but won't prove a trend change until it closes below $1.3150 or above $1.3711.
US$1=Y93.57=E0.7470+0.033999 oz Ag=0.000624 oz Au.
Stocks ground out another little rise today. Dow added 53.91 to close above 14,000 at 14,035.67 (up 0.39%0. S&P500 ground side by side, up 11.15 (0.73%) to 1,530.94. Trend remains up.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : -5.20 or -0.32%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.413
Change : -0.426 or -1.43%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.520
Change : 0.604 or 1.12%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01834
Change : -0.000206 or -1.11%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1696.40
Change : 19.80 or 1.18%
Palladium Price Close Today : 763.75
Change : 11.00 or 1.46%
S&P 500 : 1,530.94
Change : 11.15 or 0.73%
Dow In GOLD$ : $180.93
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.32%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.753
Change : 0.363 or 4.32%
Dow in SILVER oz : 477.19
Change : 8.62 or 1.84%
Dow Industrial : 14,035.67
Change : 53.91 or 0.39%
US Dollar Index : 80.36
Change : -0.157 or -0.19%
The GOLD PRICE gave back $5.30 off Friday's close to end at $1,603.60. Silver lost 42.6 cents today to end at 2941.3c. Okay, Moneychanger, explain why that DOESN'T mean silver and gold are broken.
Lacking a crystal ball, I don't know whether they are broken or not, but I can list the votes for and against and you can weigh them and tote them up yourself.
On a five day chart the GOLD PRICE put in bottoms just above $1,600 on Friday and today. Is that a double bottom marking the end of the decline? Beats me, but there it sits, hollering, and if gold rises from here and doesn't later fall below that level, y'all will look back and say, "Why, shucks, that WAS a double bottom after all."
Gold's low today came at $1,601.61, but it couldn't climb higher than $1,614.47. It's late for me as I write this (nearly 9:00 p.m. against my usual 5:30 p.m.) and the aftermarket has climbed up to Friday's close, $1,603.70.
On a four month chart gold has fallen to the downtrend line from the August 2011 high, which ought to, and better, offer support. More: in the last two days it has traded outside the bottom Bollinger Band. That measures variability, and to punch through that bottom line implies GOLD is very much oversold and due an immediate rebound. Seldom happens that a market breaks that bottom line and continues to fall without a rebound In gold's case, over the last 2-1/2 years it has never pierced the bottom B-band and kept on falling. Rather, it has always rebounded at least a little, most of the time a lot. Only once has it kept on skidding along the bottom line for several weeks.
Gold's waterfall over the last week also brings it to that downtrend line from the 2011 high. After the August breakout through and above that line to $1,800, that completes a correction back to the line for a final kiss good-bye, often seen in breakouts.
Could the GOLD PRICE still drop to $1,525 and shake out all the weak holders, and scare the rest of us to death? Yep, but not without first breaking this $1,600 level. In any event, gut-wrenching and stomach-churning as it is, here is exactly the sort of place where you have to screw up your courage and buy. May prove the wrong move, but if it's right, 'twill be spectacularly right.
Unlike gold silver made a lower low than Friday, falling to 2929c today. After a fast waterfall about 10:30 that low came about 1:15. Rest of the day silver held steady and now is at 2961c.
The SILVER PRICE has reached not its downtrend line from the April 2011 high, but has just about matched its 4 January 2013 low at 2924c. And it has punched through the bottom B-band two days running, a bullish sign. (By the way, those Bollinger bands work just the same in reverse at tops.)
Does any cosmic law state that silver won't return to the 2615c bottoms of last year? Nope.
Worst feature on both silver and gold charts is that both have broken the uptrend line from the May/June lows. A spike through the line is permissible, lingering is not. Both will have to pick up sharply and close above $1,630 and 3100 cents very soon, or drop further.
Nerve wracking as these long corrections may be, they don't gainsay the primary uptrend in silver and gold. What drives that? Central bank inflation. This past weekend the central banks just confirmed again, in case you have been deaf, dumb, blind, and locked in the basement since 2006, that they will continue to inflate. Cause remains, effect will continue.
As I suspected, the G20 meeting issued a verbose statement bleached of all meaning. However, a lot was written between the lines. Whenever they say, "We will refrain from competitive devaluation," it means that behind the scenes there's an eye-gouging, ear-biting, nose-slitting bar-fight behind the scenes over that very thing. What hypocrisy! Every single central bank is depreciating its currency as fast as possible, they simply don't want any other country to leave them behind. "We're all depreciating, but we must depreciate in step." As I suspected, the silver and gold bull market is safe because once again central banks and governments have affirmed that they will continue to supply the one force that drives silver and gold up: inflation.
Why, you may ask, if all that's true, did silver and gold drop today? One mistake people make is to assume that causes have their outworking in markets immediately. Markets are pushed around by fads like any other human undertaking, but sooner or later causes will have effects.
The Japanese escaped the G20 meeting without the whipping they deserved if the G20 really were enforcing a ban on competitive devaluation ("currency war"). Yen may finally have stopped falling after a 105.86c intraday low six days ago. It has gently curved up, and closed today at 106.87c/Y100, but hasn't flashed the first sign of a reversal by crossing above its 20 DMA (108.6).
US Dollar index benefitted not at all from the G20 summit. Trading now at 80.357, about where it ended last Thursday. However, dollar index stands above its 20 and 50 DMAs, and has established a clear if sluggish uptrend. Well, call it a short term uptrend in its crablike range. Needs to climb above 80.90 even to merit suspicion of a rally, and above 81.50 to confirm it.
The euro meanwhile remains in what is either a correction or broken uptrend. Closed today up 0.19% at $1.3387, but won't prove a trend change until it closes below $1.3150 or above $1.3711.
US$1=Y93.57=E0.7470+0.033999 oz Ag=0.000624 oz Au.
Stocks ground out another little rise today. Dow added 53.91 to close above 14,000 at 14,035.67 (up 0.39%0. S&P500 ground side by side, up 11.15 (0.73%) to 1,530.94. Trend remains up.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Monday, February 18, 2013
Gold Price Unchanged Over Presidents' Day
Gold Price Close Today : 1608.80
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.85
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.90
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%
Franklin Sanders didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.85
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.90
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%
Franklin Sanders didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Friday, February 15, 2013
The Gold Price Closed Down at $1,608.80
Gold Price Close Today : 1,608.80
Gold Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 1,666.00
Change : -57.20 or -3.43%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.85
Silver Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 31.425
Change : -1.575 or -5.01%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.90
Gold Silver Ratio 8-Feb-13 : 53.015
Change : 0.885 or 1.669%
Franklin Sanders didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Gold Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 1,666.00
Change : -57.20 or -3.43%
Silver Price Close Today : 29.85
Silver Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 31.425
Change : -1.575 or -5.01%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.90
Gold Silver Ratio 8-Feb-13 : 53.015
Change : 0.885 or 1.669%
Franklin Sanders didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
The Gold Price Closed Down Needs to Close Above $1,705 and Silver Above 32.5 Cents
Gold Price Close Today : 1,634.70
Gold Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 1,666.00
Change : -31.30 or -1.9%
Silver Price Close Today : 30.343
Silver Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 31.425
Change : -108.20 or -3.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.874
Gold Silver Ratio 8-Feb-13 : 53.015
Change : 0.86 or 1.6%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01856
Silver Gold Ratio 8-Feb-13 : 0.01886
Change : -0.00030 or -1.6%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 176.70
Dow in Gold Dollars 8-Feb-13 : $ 173.63
Change : $3.08 or 1.8%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.548
Dow in Gold Ounces 8-Feb-13 : 8.399
Change : 0.15 or 1.8%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 460.51
Dow in Silver Ounces 8-Feb-13 : 445.28
Change : 15.23 or 3.4%
Dow Industrial : 13,973.39
Dow Industrial 8-Feb-13 : 13,992.97
Change : -19.58 or -0.1%
S&P 500 : 1,521.38
S&P 500 8-Feb-13 : 1,517.93
Change : 3.45 or 0.2%
US Dollar Index : 80.394
US Dollar Index 8-Feb-13 : 80.263
Change : 0.131 or 0.2%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,709.80
Platinum Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 1,713.50
Change : -3.70 or -0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today : 763.65
Palladium Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 751.10
Change : 12.55 or 1.7%
Today the GOLD PRICE fell $9.50 to $1,634.70 and silver ran right along, losing 51.1 cents to close at 3034.3c.
These are not gigantic breakdowns, but with the last few days' breakdowns through support they force us to question how far they might fall. They will run into the downtrend lines from the 2011 highs at 2800c and $1,595. Fall through those points and it's back to last year's lows at 2610c and $1,525.
Those targets are by no means given. Next week after the Chinese holiday the Chinese will return to the market, buying, and who knows what rotten egg, positive or negative, the G20 chickens might lay. Some support for the GOLD PRICE exists also around $1,630 and for silver between 2975c and 3000c. Might stop there.
Up above the gold and SILVER PRICE will not trounce the bears until they close over $1,705 and 3250c.
Bottom line is, hold fast, don't panic. Keep your eyes on the primary trend and the horizon, and you'll ride out the worst storms with silver and gold.
Silver and gold, contrary to what the chart screamed in August and September, and even through most of this correction, have not yet made good on the rally promised by their August breakout through the downtrend line from the 2011 highs. Today because markets fear some statement (don't even say "action") from the toothless G20 discouraging currency wars, short term traders are selling silver and gold, buying dollars and yen, selling euros, and shunning stocks.
Listen, I'm used to people calling me "fool" and "stupid," so it doesn't much bother me. I've been doing this too long. I've learned not to tote up scores too early. I was there in October and November 2008 when from March highs gold lost 30% and silver lost 105% [sic] of its preceding rise, puking in my wastebasket every morning. Tales of great cliffs for gold and silver just past Sunday don't panic me, since I am not selling now anyhow. And if they drop, so much the better, because I'll buy some more cheaper. I was also there at the 2011 peaks, when silver reached 6 times its 2008 low and gold 2.7 times. Truth is the daughter of time.
And it ain't over yet. Banks are still stuffed with rotten assets, governments have reached the limit of borrowing capacity, every central bank in the world is inflating, AND THEY WILL KEEP ON DOING IT TILL THEY BUST. The cause hasn't been removed, so the effect will continue. They continue to inflate, so silver and gold will continue to rise.
I'm content to wait, and be called "wrong" for a long time.
Yet again we are treated to an exhibition of how government and central bank interference in the economy "stabilize" markets. The Gang of 20 nations are meeting this weekend. Now y'all and I and any other rational, sane person knows that like a sow wallowing in the mire, they will keep on wallowing in their Keynesianism, their stimulus programs, and most of all, inflation. Therefore, the chance of anything earth-shaking, any real change, coming out of this meeting is a little less than the chance of your winning the Power Ball Lottery and 30 seconds later being struck by a meteor. They will meet, they will swill and swallow at public expense, they will posture and issue verbose statements carefully bleached of meaning, and then they will go home to feed off their respective nations again. But the mere threat of a "government surprise party" coming out of this weekend has paralyzed some markets and sent others in odd directions as gamblers lay bets on what the Assembled Poo-Bahs and Virtually Important People might do.
So markets are skewed. I have learned, however, that markets can remain skewed and illogical longer than your pockets are deep. That's why I make no short term investments, no day trades, but rather stay with the primary trend. Unsexy and stodgy though that be, it beats panhandling after losing all your money in the futures market.
US dollar index rose today to 80.394, up 32.3 basis points (0.42%), probably because it's viewed as the safest bet before the Gang of 20 meeting. Euro fell to $1.3356 (0.69%), probably on the bet that a high exchange rate hurts the puking-sick European economy and therefore must be brought down. Likewise the yen rose to 107.69 (up 0.39%) most likely on the bet that the other central banks won't stand for more currency warfare from the Japanese and will require them to give back some of their gains.
The looming G20 meeting discomfited stock markets around the globe, and confused them. The S&P500 and the Russell 2000 rose while the Dow and all the Nasdaq averages fell. Other world markets fell.
S&P500 gained 1.05 (0.07%) to 1,521.38 but the Dow wouldn't keep it company. It fell 9.52 (0.07%) to 13,973.39. I very much doubt the stocks' rally has ended, and expect a wild rise before it does. Likely that rally will end as March expires, but it might stretch out a little longer. Might reach 15,000 amidst government, central bank, and media announcements of a "New Era." It won't be.
Dow measured in silver and Dow in Gold have both broken out upside and probably will rise another 6% or so at least.
I am sending this weekly report today because my wife is kidnapping me tomorrow and taking me to New Orleans. She's making me go. Really. So I won't be sending a commentary today or Monday, but I'll think about y'all when I'm sitting in Felix's in front of my second dozen oysters.
Today is Valentine's Day. If you haven't already bought your wife some sweet present, you'd better go find one right now.
On 14 February 1859 the Great State of Oregon was admitted to the Union. The Oregon coat of arms shows a man NOT pumping his own gas over the motto, "We never met a rule we didn't like." I love Oregon and you can live a gourmet's life there, but Mercy! They love those rules. I nearly got arrested once for chewing gum in the state aquarium. Got tailed by the security guard all the rest of my tour. I must look like "one of those people." Can y'all imagine what he might have done if I'd been dipping Skoal? If I'm lying, I'm dying. It happened.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Gold Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 1,666.00
Change : -31.30 or -1.9%
Silver Price Close Today : 30.343
Silver Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 31.425
Change : -108.20 or -3.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.874
Gold Silver Ratio 8-Feb-13 : 53.015
Change : 0.86 or 1.6%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01856
Silver Gold Ratio 8-Feb-13 : 0.01886
Change : -0.00030 or -1.6%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 176.70
Dow in Gold Dollars 8-Feb-13 : $ 173.63
Change : $3.08 or 1.8%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.548
Dow in Gold Ounces 8-Feb-13 : 8.399
Change : 0.15 or 1.8%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 460.51
Dow in Silver Ounces 8-Feb-13 : 445.28
Change : 15.23 or 3.4%
Dow Industrial : 13,973.39
Dow Industrial 8-Feb-13 : 13,992.97
Change : -19.58 or -0.1%
S&P 500 : 1,521.38
S&P 500 8-Feb-13 : 1,517.93
Change : 3.45 or 0.2%
US Dollar Index : 80.394
US Dollar Index 8-Feb-13 : 80.263
Change : 0.131 or 0.2%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,709.80
Platinum Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 1,713.50
Change : -3.70 or -0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today : 763.65
Palladium Price Close 8-Feb-13 : 751.10
Change : 12.55 or 1.7%
Today the GOLD PRICE fell $9.50 to $1,634.70 and silver ran right along, losing 51.1 cents to close at 3034.3c.
These are not gigantic breakdowns, but with the last few days' breakdowns through support they force us to question how far they might fall. They will run into the downtrend lines from the 2011 highs at 2800c and $1,595. Fall through those points and it's back to last year's lows at 2610c and $1,525.
Those targets are by no means given. Next week after the Chinese holiday the Chinese will return to the market, buying, and who knows what rotten egg, positive or negative, the G20 chickens might lay. Some support for the GOLD PRICE exists also around $1,630 and for silver between 2975c and 3000c. Might stop there.
Up above the gold and SILVER PRICE will not trounce the bears until they close over $1,705 and 3250c.
Bottom line is, hold fast, don't panic. Keep your eyes on the primary trend and the horizon, and you'll ride out the worst storms with silver and gold.
Silver and gold, contrary to what the chart screamed in August and September, and even through most of this correction, have not yet made good on the rally promised by their August breakout through the downtrend line from the 2011 highs. Today because markets fear some statement (don't even say "action") from the toothless G20 discouraging currency wars, short term traders are selling silver and gold, buying dollars and yen, selling euros, and shunning stocks.
Listen, I'm used to people calling me "fool" and "stupid," so it doesn't much bother me. I've been doing this too long. I've learned not to tote up scores too early. I was there in October and November 2008 when from March highs gold lost 30% and silver lost 105% [sic] of its preceding rise, puking in my wastebasket every morning. Tales of great cliffs for gold and silver just past Sunday don't panic me, since I am not selling now anyhow. And if they drop, so much the better, because I'll buy some more cheaper. I was also there at the 2011 peaks, when silver reached 6 times its 2008 low and gold 2.7 times. Truth is the daughter of time.
And it ain't over yet. Banks are still stuffed with rotten assets, governments have reached the limit of borrowing capacity, every central bank in the world is inflating, AND THEY WILL KEEP ON DOING IT TILL THEY BUST. The cause hasn't been removed, so the effect will continue. They continue to inflate, so silver and gold will continue to rise.
I'm content to wait, and be called "wrong" for a long time.
Yet again we are treated to an exhibition of how government and central bank interference in the economy "stabilize" markets. The Gang of 20 nations are meeting this weekend. Now y'all and I and any other rational, sane person knows that like a sow wallowing in the mire, they will keep on wallowing in their Keynesianism, their stimulus programs, and most of all, inflation. Therefore, the chance of anything earth-shaking, any real change, coming out of this meeting is a little less than the chance of your winning the Power Ball Lottery and 30 seconds later being struck by a meteor. They will meet, they will swill and swallow at public expense, they will posture and issue verbose statements carefully bleached of meaning, and then they will go home to feed off their respective nations again. But the mere threat of a "government surprise party" coming out of this weekend has paralyzed some markets and sent others in odd directions as gamblers lay bets on what the Assembled Poo-Bahs and Virtually Important People might do.
So markets are skewed. I have learned, however, that markets can remain skewed and illogical longer than your pockets are deep. That's why I make no short term investments, no day trades, but rather stay with the primary trend. Unsexy and stodgy though that be, it beats panhandling after losing all your money in the futures market.
US dollar index rose today to 80.394, up 32.3 basis points (0.42%), probably because it's viewed as the safest bet before the Gang of 20 meeting. Euro fell to $1.3356 (0.69%), probably on the bet that a high exchange rate hurts the puking-sick European economy and therefore must be brought down. Likewise the yen rose to 107.69 (up 0.39%) most likely on the bet that the other central banks won't stand for more currency warfare from the Japanese and will require them to give back some of their gains.
The looming G20 meeting discomfited stock markets around the globe, and confused them. The S&P500 and the Russell 2000 rose while the Dow and all the Nasdaq averages fell. Other world markets fell.
S&P500 gained 1.05 (0.07%) to 1,521.38 but the Dow wouldn't keep it company. It fell 9.52 (0.07%) to 13,973.39. I very much doubt the stocks' rally has ended, and expect a wild rise before it does. Likely that rally will end as March expires, but it might stretch out a little longer. Might reach 15,000 amidst government, central bank, and media announcements of a "New Era." It won't be.
Dow measured in silver and Dow in Gold have both broken out upside and probably will rise another 6% or so at least.
I am sending this weekly report today because my wife is kidnapping me tomorrow and taking me to New Orleans. She's making me go. Really. So I won't be sending a commentary today or Monday, but I'll think about y'all when I'm sitting in Felix's in front of my second dozen oysters.
Today is Valentine's Day. If you haven't already bought your wife some sweet present, you'd better go find one right now.
On 14 February 1859 the Great State of Oregon was admitted to the Union. The Oregon coat of arms shows a man NOT pumping his own gas over the motto, "We never met a rule we didn't like." I love Oregon and you can live a gourmet's life there, but Mercy! They love those rules. I nearly got arrested once for chewing gum in the state aquarium. Got tailed by the security guard all the rest of my tour. I must look like "one of those people." Can y'all imagine what he might have done if I'd been dipping Skoal? If I'm lying, I'm dying. It happened.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
The Gold Price Posted a Higher Low and a Slightly Higher High
Gold Price Close Today : 1644.20
Change : -4.50 or -0.27%
Silver Price Close Today : 30.854
Change : -0.002 or 0.00%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.290
Change : -0.143 or -0.27%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01877
Change : 0.000050 or 0.27%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1728.60
Change : -12.50 or -0.72%
Palladium Price Close Today : 771.65
Change : 0.65 or 0.08%
S&P 500 : 1,520.33
Change : 0.90 or 0.06%
Dow In GOLD$ : $175.80
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.46%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.504
Change : 0.363 or 4.46%
Dow in SILVER oz : 453.20
Change : -1.14 or -0.25%
Dow Industrial : 13,982.91
Change : -35.79 or -0.26%
US Dollar Index : 80.08
Change : 0.032 or 0.04%
The GOLD PRICE closed $4.50 lower today at $1,644.20 but posted a higher low. Highs were nearly identical, $1,651.91 today against $1,651.87 yesterday.
The SILVER PRICE traded to a higher high today at 3115c, and a higher low at 3071c, but closed down 15c at 3085.4c
Clearly buyers support gold around $1,640 and silver around 3050c - 3070c. If those don't hold, maximum downside risk for silver is 2990 - 2960c and for the GOLD PRICE $1,600. Up above, no confirmation of a rally arrives before they close above 3250c and $1,705.
We wait, stuck in the middle. Be patient, our time will come.
I reckon I'm so old that my reflexes are slowing down. This morning in the car National Proletarian Radio played a clip from a speech O'Bama was making in Asheville, and before I could change the channel, turn it off, or rip the radio out of the dash (I'm slowing down, I tell y'all) I heard him say that his plan to revive the economy was to raise the minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.25.
Let's see: how can we revive the economy and lower unemployment? I know! Let's RAISE wage costs for all employers, and price the lowest cost workers out of the market by raising the minimum wage! That way employers -- those our moronic policies haven't already driven out of business -- will have to buy machines to replace those low wage workers, and that will stimulate the economy! You can almost hear him and Ben guffawing over how smart they are.
It's time for me to move on to the next galaxy. There's no intelligent life left in this one.
Stock indices were confused today, some up, some down. Dow lost 35.79 (0.26%) and ended below the morale-busting or -boosting 14,000 at 13,982.91. I keep going back to the chart where I see what looks like one of those cartoons with the big fish gulping down a smaller fish who is gulping down a still smaller fish who is gulping down a minnow. It's Jaws of Death within Jaws of Death within Jaws of Death. Sooner or later, somebody's gonna get eaten.
S&P500 rose by a miniscule 0.9 (0.06%). Doesn’t really differ much from the Dow. In a month or so the weeping will begin.
Went back and looked again -- my daily exercise -- at the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Figuring the Dow in Gold began its fall in July 2009 at 10.04 oz (G$207.54), and it bottomed at 5.82 in July 2011, then today it stands nearly at a 61.8% correction of that fall. About 9 oz (G$186.05) would make a 75% correction, which nests with the target of 9.12 I already had in mind. Dow in Silver weekly chart has not yet reached its 200 day moving average (465.83), a likely target for a turnaround and about on par with the 50% correction of the last fall (473.57).
Let us hear the end of the matter: both charts can rise more, but not much more. Maybe 5 or 6%.
Note carefully the sound of claxons in the US Treasury security market. The 10 year treasury note yield really has broken out to the upside. Now at 2.02%, if it rises above 2.4%, Ben the Business Slayer has lost the battle against reason and the interest rate. Just what a struggling economy and an inflating dollar need, higher interest rates.
US dollar rose an unimportant mite, 3.2 basis points to 80.083. While the dollar may have turned and has been generally rising since February began, it wilted yesterday when it struck the downtrend line from November's high. Bias is upward as it stands above its 50 and 20 DMAs.
Euro remains broken below its late $1.3711 high. Yet it might still climb higher unless it closes below $1.3150. Lost a measly 0.3% today to end at $1.3354.
Yen -- surprise, surprise -- did not sink again today to another new low. Rather, it rose 0.4% to 107.03c/Y100. No trend change yet.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : -4.50 or -0.27%
Silver Price Close Today : 30.854
Change : -0.002 or 0.00%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.290
Change : -0.143 or -0.27%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01877
Change : 0.000050 or 0.27%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1728.60
Change : -12.50 or -0.72%
Palladium Price Close Today : 771.65
Change : 0.65 or 0.08%
S&P 500 : 1,520.33
Change : 0.90 or 0.06%
Dow In GOLD$ : $175.80
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.46%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.504
Change : 0.363 or 4.46%
Dow in SILVER oz : 453.20
Change : -1.14 or -0.25%
Dow Industrial : 13,982.91
Change : -35.79 or -0.26%
US Dollar Index : 80.08
Change : 0.032 or 0.04%
The GOLD PRICE closed $4.50 lower today at $1,644.20 but posted a higher low. Highs were nearly identical, $1,651.91 today against $1,651.87 yesterday.
The SILVER PRICE traded to a higher high today at 3115c, and a higher low at 3071c, but closed down 15c at 3085.4c
Clearly buyers support gold around $1,640 and silver around 3050c - 3070c. If those don't hold, maximum downside risk for silver is 2990 - 2960c and for the GOLD PRICE $1,600. Up above, no confirmation of a rally arrives before they close above 3250c and $1,705.
We wait, stuck in the middle. Be patient, our time will come.
I reckon I'm so old that my reflexes are slowing down. This morning in the car National Proletarian Radio played a clip from a speech O'Bama was making in Asheville, and before I could change the channel, turn it off, or rip the radio out of the dash (I'm slowing down, I tell y'all) I heard him say that his plan to revive the economy was to raise the minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.25.
Let's see: how can we revive the economy and lower unemployment? I know! Let's RAISE wage costs for all employers, and price the lowest cost workers out of the market by raising the minimum wage! That way employers -- those our moronic policies haven't already driven out of business -- will have to buy machines to replace those low wage workers, and that will stimulate the economy! You can almost hear him and Ben guffawing over how smart they are.
It's time for me to move on to the next galaxy. There's no intelligent life left in this one.
Stock indices were confused today, some up, some down. Dow lost 35.79 (0.26%) and ended below the morale-busting or -boosting 14,000 at 13,982.91. I keep going back to the chart where I see what looks like one of those cartoons with the big fish gulping down a smaller fish who is gulping down a still smaller fish who is gulping down a minnow. It's Jaws of Death within Jaws of Death within Jaws of Death. Sooner or later, somebody's gonna get eaten.
S&P500 rose by a miniscule 0.9 (0.06%). Doesn’t really differ much from the Dow. In a month or so the weeping will begin.
Went back and looked again -- my daily exercise -- at the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Figuring the Dow in Gold began its fall in July 2009 at 10.04 oz (G$207.54), and it bottomed at 5.82 in July 2011, then today it stands nearly at a 61.8% correction of that fall. About 9 oz (G$186.05) would make a 75% correction, which nests with the target of 9.12 I already had in mind. Dow in Silver weekly chart has not yet reached its 200 day moving average (465.83), a likely target for a turnaround and about on par with the 50% correction of the last fall (473.57).
Let us hear the end of the matter: both charts can rise more, but not much more. Maybe 5 or 6%.
Note carefully the sound of claxons in the US Treasury security market. The 10 year treasury note yield really has broken out to the upside. Now at 2.02%, if it rises above 2.4%, Ben the Business Slayer has lost the battle against reason and the interest rate. Just what a struggling economy and an inflating dollar need, higher interest rates.
US dollar rose an unimportant mite, 3.2 basis points to 80.083. While the dollar may have turned and has been generally rising since February began, it wilted yesterday when it struck the downtrend line from November's high. Bias is upward as it stands above its 50 and 20 DMAs.
Euro remains broken below its late $1.3711 high. Yet it might still climb higher unless it closes below $1.3150. Lost a measly 0.3% today to end at $1.3354.
Yen -- surprise, surprise -- did not sink again today to another new low. Rather, it rose 0.4% to 107.03c/Y100. No trend change yet.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
The Gold Price Gained Only Fifty Cents Closing at $1,648.70 Silver Gained 10.9 Cents
Gold Price Close Today : 1,648.70
Change : 0.50 or 0.03%
Silver Price Close Today : 31.00
Change : 0.11 or 0.35%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.177
Change : -0.171 or -0.32%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0188
Change : 0.0001 or 0.32%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,716.10
Change : 21.10 or 1.24%
Palladium Price Close Today : 771.00
Change : 12.80 or 1.69%
S&P 500 : 1,519.43
Change : 2.42 or 0.16%
Dow In GOLD$ : $175.77
Change : $7.50 or 4.46%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.50
Change : 0.36 or 4.46%
Dow in SILVER oz : 452.16
Change : -0.06 or -0.01%
Dow Industrial : 14,018.70
Change : 47.46 or 0.34%
US Dollar Index : 80.07
Change : -0.13 or -0.17%
The silver and GOLD PRICE are simply dead in the water. Silver today gained 10.9 cents to 3100.4c. Gold gained -- got your magnifying glass ready? -- fifty cents, closing at $1,648.70. Range for gold was $1,639.27 - $1,651.87, and for silver 3057.9c - 3112c.
The GOLD PRICE five day chart was flat to the lows yesterday, with that spike to a lower low at $1,329.27. If it climbs above $1,652 tomorrow & closes up there, that will mark a bottom for a while.
However, today's gold close didn't help the longer term chart much. Gold remains below the uptrend from the lows last June, & below ALL it's moving averages. That I am so negative & indifferent that is probably a sure sign we saw a major low today, but that hasn't shown up on the chart yet.
The snare in all human minds is that we see a trend & project it out unchanged to infinity. Of course, that ignores the one known rule of this universe: everything changes.
The SILVER PRICE gained 10.9 cents to close right at the morale-boosting 3100 cent level. Much like gold's chart, silver made a spike bottom to 3057.9 cents, a new low for the move, and then rose strongly off that spike. Needs to close above 3110c tomorrow to confirm that as a bottom of some sort.
The SILVER PRICE longer term chart -- I'm looking at 4 months -- offers hope. Today's trading pierced the rising trendline from the June low and punched through the 200 DMA (30.67), but it wouldn't stay there & finished the day higher. And right at the 300 DMA (3111c). And back inside that even-sided triangle I've been watching.
What speaketh all that hope? Simple: silver had the chance to break down, but was strong enough to snap back.
Silver & gold are simply treading water while stocks blow off. Likelihood of further downside is small, but gold must clear $1,705 & silver 3250c before any rally can be counted authentic. Meantime, we wait, with calm assurance we will have the last laugh.
Saw today in Peter Grandich's letter, this quotation from a London metals trader:
"I'm not that worried about the sell-off today, it's just the logical thing. I was surprised they waited so long [to take it down], because many opportunities to push it to that level existed before...and it finally happened, and that's good for the market. This is actually a blessing. We are still not at the lows of January at $1625...but at the moment this is probably as far as it's going to go [$1642]. There's good support here."
He further added that, "This is actually the typical reaction of the Chinese New Year, because the shorts, they know there will be no physical demand for a couple of days, there won't be support there, and so they are smart. This is smart money just pushing it to the extremes. For me this is an opportunity to get something cheap in for the mid-term. But you can't fight the trend at the moment in terms of what's in the air for the Fed-speak, etc., but the long-term money stays and sits."
There are lies, then there are diplomatic lies, that is, the lies of lying diplomats. The G7 finance froufrous (Group of Seven includes US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, & Japan) meeting before the G20 meeting in Moscow, probably to get their story straight, lied through their teeth today in a statement in which they pledged to let foreign exchange markets determine their currencies' exchange rates. They also alibied for Japan's studied devaluation.
I don't any more believe this than I believe Bernard O'Bama is a world-class intellectual and tatting expert. Statement backed & filled by saying something about it devaluing was only OK for the Japanese to beat deflation, but not to boost their economy. Now, let's see. Exactly how do we tell the first sort from the second, or any of them from outright competitive currency devaluation, or, dare I say it, "Currency war"? I can't tell it, any more than I can tell a rattlesnake from a snake.
In the outcome the Yen rose 0.92% to 106.95 & the Euro rose to $1.3451 while the US dollar index fell to 80.066 from 80.199 this time yesterday. Whoops. That fall plunged from today's high of 80.508. Closes left the euro slightly above its 20 DMA, but still way below its broken uptrend line. Not at all clear to me whether the Euro has topped yet or not, but present facts favor that interpretation. Meanwhile, the Euro & US NGM are standing aside while the Japanese pull the plug on the yen. Makes you wonder what kind of deal they've made, or if they're at war with each other.
This much we know: ALL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES ARE MANIPULATED BY CENTRAL BANKS IN CONCERT. "Markets determining rates indeed!" he snorted.
Stocks managed to climb firmly & convincingly above 14,000 today. Dow gained 47.46 (0.34%) to 14,018.70, but the S&P500 gained only 2.42 (0.16%) to 1,519.43. Nasdaq & other indices were not convinced, & fell.
Today's close all but guarantees the Dow will at least reach its 2007 high (14,154.63 on 9 October 07) in this rally.
I will tell y'all, but many will not hear or believe, that stocks remain in a BEAR market (primary downtrend) and that this rally will soon collapse in a most painful way, taking the money of the unwary down with it. Flee while ye yet may.
Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver agree that stocks are going higher. Both rose today about their congestion areas.
On that black day 12 February 1873 President Grant signed into law the Crime of '73, which de facto (but not de jure) demonetized silver in the US by not providing for the minting of silver dollars. Conspiracy theorists report that a lobbyist acting for English banks accomplished all this for the bargain price of $500,000. Politicians came cheaper in those days.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
Change : 0.50 or 0.03%
Silver Price Close Today : 31.00
Change : 0.11 or 0.35%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.177
Change : -0.171 or -0.32%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0188
Change : 0.0001 or 0.32%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,716.10
Change : 21.10 or 1.24%
Palladium Price Close Today : 771.00
Change : 12.80 or 1.69%
S&P 500 : 1,519.43
Change : 2.42 or 0.16%
Dow In GOLD$ : $175.77
Change : $7.50 or 4.46%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.50
Change : 0.36 or 4.46%
Dow in SILVER oz : 452.16
Change : -0.06 or -0.01%
Dow Industrial : 14,018.70
Change : 47.46 or 0.34%
US Dollar Index : 80.07
Change : -0.13 or -0.17%
The silver and GOLD PRICE are simply dead in the water. Silver today gained 10.9 cents to 3100.4c. Gold gained -- got your magnifying glass ready? -- fifty cents, closing at $1,648.70. Range for gold was $1,639.27 - $1,651.87, and for silver 3057.9c - 3112c.
The GOLD PRICE five day chart was flat to the lows yesterday, with that spike to a lower low at $1,329.27. If it climbs above $1,652 tomorrow & closes up there, that will mark a bottom for a while.
However, today's gold close didn't help the longer term chart much. Gold remains below the uptrend from the lows last June, & below ALL it's moving averages. That I am so negative & indifferent that is probably a sure sign we saw a major low today, but that hasn't shown up on the chart yet.
The snare in all human minds is that we see a trend & project it out unchanged to infinity. Of course, that ignores the one known rule of this universe: everything changes.
The SILVER PRICE gained 10.9 cents to close right at the morale-boosting 3100 cent level. Much like gold's chart, silver made a spike bottom to 3057.9 cents, a new low for the move, and then rose strongly off that spike. Needs to close above 3110c tomorrow to confirm that as a bottom of some sort.
The SILVER PRICE longer term chart -- I'm looking at 4 months -- offers hope. Today's trading pierced the rising trendline from the June low and punched through the 200 DMA (30.67), but it wouldn't stay there & finished the day higher. And right at the 300 DMA (3111c). And back inside that even-sided triangle I've been watching.
What speaketh all that hope? Simple: silver had the chance to break down, but was strong enough to snap back.
Silver & gold are simply treading water while stocks blow off. Likelihood of further downside is small, but gold must clear $1,705 & silver 3250c before any rally can be counted authentic. Meantime, we wait, with calm assurance we will have the last laugh.
Saw today in Peter Grandich's letter, this quotation from a London metals trader:
"I'm not that worried about the sell-off today, it's just the logical thing. I was surprised they waited so long [to take it down], because many opportunities to push it to that level existed before...and it finally happened, and that's good for the market. This is actually a blessing. We are still not at the lows of January at $1625...but at the moment this is probably as far as it's going to go [$1642]. There's good support here."
He further added that, "This is actually the typical reaction of the Chinese New Year, because the shorts, they know there will be no physical demand for a couple of days, there won't be support there, and so they are smart. This is smart money just pushing it to the extremes. For me this is an opportunity to get something cheap in for the mid-term. But you can't fight the trend at the moment in terms of what's in the air for the Fed-speak, etc., but the long-term money stays and sits."
There are lies, then there are diplomatic lies, that is, the lies of lying diplomats. The G7 finance froufrous (Group of Seven includes US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, & Japan) meeting before the G20 meeting in Moscow, probably to get their story straight, lied through their teeth today in a statement in which they pledged to let foreign exchange markets determine their currencies' exchange rates. They also alibied for Japan's studied devaluation.
I don't any more believe this than I believe Bernard O'Bama is a world-class intellectual and tatting expert. Statement backed & filled by saying something about it devaluing was only OK for the Japanese to beat deflation, but not to boost their economy. Now, let's see. Exactly how do we tell the first sort from the second, or any of them from outright competitive currency devaluation, or, dare I say it, "Currency war"? I can't tell it, any more than I can tell a rattlesnake from a snake.
In the outcome the Yen rose 0.92% to 106.95 & the Euro rose to $1.3451 while the US dollar index fell to 80.066 from 80.199 this time yesterday. Whoops. That fall plunged from today's high of 80.508. Closes left the euro slightly above its 20 DMA, but still way below its broken uptrend line. Not at all clear to me whether the Euro has topped yet or not, but present facts favor that interpretation. Meanwhile, the Euro & US NGM are standing aside while the Japanese pull the plug on the yen. Makes you wonder what kind of deal they've made, or if they're at war with each other.
This much we know: ALL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES ARE MANIPULATED BY CENTRAL BANKS IN CONCERT. "Markets determining rates indeed!" he snorted.
Stocks managed to climb firmly & convincingly above 14,000 today. Dow gained 47.46 (0.34%) to 14,018.70, but the S&P500 gained only 2.42 (0.16%) to 1,519.43. Nasdaq & other indices were not convinced, & fell.
Today's close all but guarantees the Dow will at least reach its 2007 high (14,154.63 on 9 October 07) in this rally.
I will tell y'all, but many will not hear or believe, that stocks remain in a BEAR market (primary downtrend) and that this rally will soon collapse in a most painful way, taking the money of the unwary down with it. Flee while ye yet may.
Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver agree that stocks are going higher. Both rose today about their congestion areas.
On that black day 12 February 1873 President Grant signed into law the Crime of '73, which de facto (but not de jure) demonetized silver in the US by not providing for the minting of silver dollars. Conspiracy theorists report that a lobbyist acting for English banks accomplished all this for the bargain price of $500,000. Politicians came cheaper in those days.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.
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