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Friday, June 21, 2013

Silver and Gold Price Bull Market Has Not Ended All Fundamentals are on Metals' Side

Gold Price Close Today : 1,291.60
Gold Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 1,377.60
Change : -86.00 or -6.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.958
Silver Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 21.582
Change : -162.40 or -7.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.716
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Jun-13 : 63.831
Change : 0.88 or 1.4%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01545
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Jun-13 : 0.01567
Change : -0.00021 or -1.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 236.20
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jun-13 : $ 227.73
Change : $8.48 or 3.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.426
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jun-13 : 11.016
Change : 0.41 or 3.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 739.47
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jun-13 : 703.18
Change : 36.29 or 5.2%

Dow Industrial : 14,758.32
Dow Industrial 13-Jun-13 : 15,176.08
Change : -417.76 or -2.8%

S&P 500 : 1,592.43
S&P 500 13-Jun-13 : 1,636.36
Change : -43.93 or -2.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.312
US Dollar Index 13-Jun-13 : 80.774
Change : 1.538 or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,362.50
Platinum Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 1,446.20
Change : -83.70 or -5.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 673.25
Palladium Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 729.35
Change : -56.10 or -7.7%

The big plunges in silver and GOLD PRICES yesterday took the Dow in Gold and Dow in silver up to new highs, but they gave back much of those gains today.

But then, if I were Bernanke or the Nice Government Men, and I wanted to scare investors out of gold and silver, I'd deliver the maximum pain possible to them. Maybe that's why I heard rumors of more senseless selling yesterday. By senseless I mean extraordinarily massive sell orders that can only be calculated to crash a market. No seller in his right mind would dump gigantic quantities on the market. How would that maximize his profits?

After sinking 6.39% yesterday, the GOLD PRICE lifted its head $5.70 today to close $1,291.60. That's down a propitious 31.6% from the August 2011 high, nice number for a turnaround. After losing 180 cents yesterday, silver regained only 13.6 cents today to end at 1995.8c. That's down 59% from the April 2011 high.

SILVER PRICES have now struck support from its 2009 - 2010 trading around 1950c. If it doesn't hold here, it will aim for 1775c.

Silver is massively oversold and momentum indicators are negative. Only the sentiment remains positive on a contrarian basis, since it is historically low. But sentiment is not price, and price says everything. Oh, and silver's seasonal pattern makes a low likely this time in June.

Gold will stop around $1,260 - $1,250 or fall to $1,125. As with silver, sentiment favors a reversal, but price says everything.

What is the one thing nobody expects silver and gold to do right now? Turn around and rally. Maybe Mr. Market will fool everybody. Silver would need to jump over 2100c and gold above $1,350 to establish any rally.

So we are left with new lows in silver and gold prices and no sign of a reversal yet. Y'all bridle your impatience and wait and watch.

Bull market in silver and gold prices has not ended, we have not entered into the Golden Age of Paper Money and Bank Credit. The correction is severe, but this is the last leg down. Be watchful, don't lose hope. All the fundamentals are on our side, as well as Bodacious Ben Bernanke, that Money-Printing Fool, and the US government.

This week demonstrated both the high cost of addiction to inflation, and the depth of the addiction. On Thursday when Bernanke said IF the economy improves the Fed might slow bond purchases later in 2013 and stop them altogether in mid-2014, nobody heard the "If," only the slowing and stopping. Stock and bond markets cratered, as did the US bond market while interest rates screamed higher. Higher rates sent the dollar flying.

There is no recovery; the recovery IS quantitative easing. Bernanke and the Fed are trapped. They sailed their ship into the uncharted waters of unlimited inflation, now they're trapped.

The Dollar has gained 2.27% in the last three days, up from 80.538 on its knees to 82.312 and strutting. Today the dollar crossed its 20 DMA (82.15), and remains in an uptrend that has persisted since May 2011. It has built a giant bearish rising wedge, but never mind. It's rising off the bottom boundary of that and could hit 86 before it runs out of steam.

The dollar's sudden rally smacked the yen and euro. Both fell again today, the Yen by 0.43% to 102.35 cents/Y100, the euro to $1.3125, down 0.73%. Both have much further to fall.

Thanks to the heroic work of the Nice Government men, no doubt, yesterday and today, stocks' Waterloo -- make that "waterfall" -- wasn't worse. Dow lost 3.7% on 19 and 20 June, S&P500 slipped 3.9%. Ended all question of whether stocks were rising on economic fundamentals or a tide of inflation. Inflation won.

Until noon today stocks continued to fall, but found "Somebody" to buy about then. Dow closed up 41.08 (0.28%) at 14,758.32. S&P500 gained 4.24 (0.27%) to 1,592.43. Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 fell.

Both indices have broken badly. Dow is targeting 14,400 at least, maybe 14,000. S&P500 is aiming at 1,540 or lower. Most likely stocks have one more rally in them before the year dies, but that won't begin until fall.

Dow in gold closed down 0.02% at 11.426 oz (G$236.20). Dow in Silver dropped 3 oz or 0.4% to 739.47 oz. Longer they move up, more doubt they cast on silver and gold prices. They need to turn down soon and duck back below those long term trend lines.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.