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Friday, June 28, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Jumped Today Gold Closing at $1,223.80 Still Rising in Aftermarket

Gold Price Close Today : 1,223.80
Gold Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 1,291.60
Change : -67.80 or -5.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.451
Silver Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 19.958
Change : -0.507 or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.917
Gold Silver Ratio 21-Jun-13 : 64.716
Change : -1.80 or -2.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01589
Silver Gold Ratio 21-Jun-13 : 0.01545
Change : 0.00044 or 2.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 251.85
Dow in Gold Dollars 21-Jun-13 : $ 236.20
Change : $15.64 or 6.6%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.183
Dow in Gold Ounces 21-Jun-13 : 11.426
Change : 0.76 or 6.6%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 766.52
Dow in Silver Ounces 21-Jun-13 : 739.47
Change : 27.05 or 3.7%

Dow Industrial : 14,909.60
Dow Industrial 21-Jun-13 : 14,758.32
Change : 151.28 or 1.0%

S&P 500 : 1,606.28
S&P 500 21-Jun-13 : 1,592.43
Change : 13.85 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 83.170
US Dollar Index 21-Jun-13 : 82.312
Change : 0.858 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,336.90
Platinum Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 1,362.50
Change : -25.60 or -1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 659.50
Palladium Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 673.25
Change : -13.75 or -2.0%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES finally popped back today. Silver, which has been very reluctant to fall further lately, jumped up 91.8 cents (5%) to end at 1945.1 the gold price jumped $12.40, 1%, to end at $1,223.80. In the aftermarket silver added another 12 cents and gold another 11 bucks.

Both metals bounced up off their bottom channel lines. Whether it's more than that, whether more downside is coming, we see from how they act next week. Even to begin confirming a bottom, gold must rise steadily and close above $1,350. Silver must do the same and jump over 2000c and 2100c.

I think at least it's time to start nibbling at them, although there's still plenty of potential for more downside. Looking over my shoulder, though, at that seasonal pattern that posts bottoms for both metals in June. Both silver and gold are extremely oversold, so some rally is predictable. Question is, whether it turns the long correction around or not.

One interesting thing about this last week: retail buying was very heavy compared to recent weeks. Over 30 years I've learned that my customers are often more clever than I am. (I know, I know, no news in that.) In any event, I don't expect a lot more downside in silver or GOLD PRICES. I am simply watching.

An old friend wrote me saying, "Looking more and more like 1980." He meant silver and gold prices, of course.

Not really. Decline after 1980 top was sharp and immediate. Not so today, not even from 2011. And sentiment is way too bearish today. Even the gold websites are publishing bearish predictions!

Finally Bernanke ain't Volcker. He's still inflating, and he's trapped. Even a hint he would halt bond buying IF the economy improved tanked markets. He must keep on inflating. And who's waiting in the wings to replace him? Janet Yellen, even more the inflationist.

No, this isn't 1980, it's a bull market shaking off riders. If you're looking for a comparison, it's 1976, not 1980.

I was wondering yesterday whether stocks were rallying or foolin', and today it seems they were fooling. Dow puked back 114.89 points of yesterday's 114.35 point gain and closed at 14,909.60, up 0.76%. S&P500 gave back less, down 6.92 (0.43%) to 1,606.28. Stocks need to climb above 15,075 or continue to fall to 14,000.

As i said, Silver and gold prices surged today, sending the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver tumbling. Dow in gold ended at 12.183 oz, down 1.8% (G$251.85 gold dollars). Dow in silver fell 44.17 oz to 76.52 oz, a whopping 5.4% stumble.

On a weekly chart, the Dow in Gold has been overbought since April, the Dow in Silver since February. Does that happen in nature?

Improbable as it sounds, like "tortoise shells make good suction cups," the US dollar index has risen ten out of the last ten days. Does that happen in nature? Today it finally crossed over -- no, not finally, as we all might devoutly wish -- 83 to rise 21.6 basis points (0.28%) to 83.17. It has at least 85.50 in this move, maybe 86.

While the paper dollar flies, the yen and euro are tunneling toward the earth's core. Euro lost 0.16 5oday and ended at $1.3015, flirting with 1.3000 and a real plunge. Yen fell 0.92% to 100.57.

Bernanke may have pricked his own bond bubble with his June 19th performance. Bond mutual funds lost a record $61.7 billion this month through 24 June. Yield on 10 year Treasury has exploded 105 basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point) from May lows at 1.618% to this week's high at 2.667%. (When yields rise, bond prices fall.) Bernanke's Zero Interest Rate Policy had send investors crowding into US treasuries. Why take any risk when the yield is so low. Trouble is, the door out of that market, like every other, becomes very narrow when everybody wants out.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.